Gold fundamentals continue to coalesce. Expectations for Fed easing, anti-dollar sentiment, deteriorating U.S. finances, geopolitical stress and now the short-term catalyst of a U.S. government shutdown have powered spot gold to a $4,050 in early morning trading, up 54.3% ytd (greatest annual gain since 1979). Citadel founder Ken Griffin said investors are starting to view gold as a safer asset than the dollar, a development he called “really concerning.”
Traders offering Russian oil to Indian state refiners have begun asking for payment in Chinese yuan, trade sources said. India’s top refiner (state-controlled Indian Oil Corp) recently made payments in yuan for 2 to 3 cargoes of Russian oil.
Morgan Stanley reports retail investors have purchased over $100B of U.S. stocks over the past month (largest one-month purchases on record) with ytd purchases at $630B on the way to an estimated annual total of $800B (also a record).
In the New Yok Fed’s September Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), median 1-yr. inflation expectations increased to 3.4% (from 3.2% in Aug.) and 5-yr expectations to 3.0% (from 2.9%). Median 1-yr. commodity price change expectations increased 0.3% for food (to 5.8%) and gas (to 4.2%); 0.5% for medical care (to 9.3%); and a full 1% for rent (to 7.0%).
The International Nickel Study Group on Tuesday forecast a nickel market surplus of 209,000 tonnes in 2025, increasing to 261,000 tonnes in 2026. Global demand for nickel is expected to increase to 3.82M tonnes in ‘26 (vs. 3.60M in ’25), while global nickel production is expected to rise to 4.09 M tonnes in ’26 (vs. 3.81M in ’25).
European bonds ticking higher by 4bps-6bps across the board. 10-year Treasury yield -2.5bps (4.098%). Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, S&P futures +0.13% and Nasdaq futures +0.15%. DXY dollar index +0.27%, spot gold +1.2% and spot silver +2.1% (gold/silver ratio at 82.6).
