While equity markets have so far shrugged off rising probabilities of a Wednesday government shutdown, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken and spot gold touched a new all-time high ($3,820). The current shutdown episode comes at a tricky time. Wednesday is the first day of the ‘26 fiscal year and comes midweek (with no weekend to negotiate), and this shutdown will likely delay publication of key economic data (such as Friday’s employment report) at a time of heightened importance for investors to handicap Fed policy. President Trump meets with top Congressional Democrats in a rescheduled meeting today.
In latest evidence of the demise of the 60/40 portfolio, Wall Street banks and prominent investors are embracing precious metals as a portfolio component. Morgan Stanley is calling for a 60/20/20 allocation of equities, bonds and precious metals, while bond king Jeff Gundlach is advocating a 25/25/25/25 mix of equities, bonds, precious metals and cash. Should this trend continue, gold is going much higher.
President Trump is considering imposing tariffs on foreign electronic devices based on the number of chips in each one. The tariff would be on the percentage of the estimated value of the product’s chip content. Last week, the WSJ reported the U.S. is planning to introduce a 1:1 chip production rule whereby companies must make at least the same number of chips in America as they import, or face 100% tariff on those net imports.
In the latest twist in U.S./China trade negotiations, President Xi Jinping is asking the U.S. to declare it “opposes” Taiwan independence, a major shift from the decades-old phrase that the U.S. “does not support” Taiwan seeking formal independence.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins pledged to fast-track President Trump’s proposal to end quarterly reporting (mandatory since 1970) and give U.S. companies the option to report on a semi-annual basis.
At current prices, the 261 million ounces of gold in U.S. Treasury reserves (currently valued at $11B @ $42.22/oz) are worth $1 trillion.
DXY dollar index -0.1%, spot gold +1.65% and spot silver +2.0%. (Gold/silver ratio at 81.3.)
