Welcome to the latest episode of Rise UP! — your go-to weekly market and economic recap, where the biggest financial stories meet expert analysis. Hosted by two of the industry’s most accomplished voices, Rise Growth Partners’ Terri Kallsen, CFP®, and Joe Duran, CFA, alongside special guests Peter Boockvar (CIO of Bleakley Financial Group) and Andy Schwartz (Co-Founder & Principal of Bleakley Financial Group).
Join us as we dive into:
- Markets Reflecting Political Unpredictability, plus, Tariffs, Interest Rates, Strong U.S. Dollar!
- Gold at Record Highs Still Undervalued? And, Is Bitcoin Really Digital Gold?
- Smart Investing Strategies & The 1930s Tariff Trade War Redux?
Stay ahead of the latest trends, investment risks, and economic shifts with expert insights!
Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4hhHDCh
Terri Kallsen 0:14
Welcome to rise up where we take a look at the biggest market stories each week, we break them down to help you understand what’s happening in the markets, how to grow and protect your portfolio. I’m Terry Colson. I’m a certified financial planner. I’m a managing partner at Rise growth, and I’m joined here with my co host, Joe Duran, who’s the founder at Rise growth partnership. He’s also been a serial entrepreneur and extremely successful. We’re excited to have Joe here, and we have two special guests with us this week. We have Andy Schwartz, the managing partner and principal at Bleakley Financial Group, who is also a Certified Financial Planner. And we have Peter Bucha, who is the CIO, the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley, the editor of the Bucha report, and a chartered financial analyst, and I need to say, Joe Duran, also a CFA. So a very, very competent group of experts to share with us stories of what’s going on today. So Andy and Peter. Thank you so much for being with us today.
Peter Boockvar 1:15
Great to be here. Awesome. Well,
Terri Kallsen 1:18
before we dive into our three big stories of the week. Let’s just take an overall look. The markets were still very volatile again this week. This seems to be an ongoing theme for us overall. You know, stocks fell on Monday after President Trump’s tariff announcement. Tuesday and Wednesday. Lot of shaking up. Investors weighed in on the impact of terrorists. People changed their minds. There was reversals. There was the impact of stocks on Google, Amazon, Microsoft earnings calls, the rising competition from the Chinese, as we talked about the AI deep seek. So a word we didn’t even know before the last couple weeks. Now, it’s become common language, and certainly the markets are rising just briefly. But there’s a lot of reports that need to come out. You know, a lot of earnings that have come out. Declines in Ford Qualcomm after weak profit reports. So Joe, it’s been another volatile week. You know, what do you think are the big stories and how should investors be reacting?
Joe Duran 2:20
Well, first of all, Terry, can I just say it’s incredibly nice to be back in America. I was gone for the last four or five days. I spent, I think, five days and six different four days in six different countries all around Central America. Most interestingly, one of them was in San Salvador. And El Salvador actually hearing about the impact of Bitcoin, so we’re going to talk a little bit more about that. But I struck, obviously, deep seek, which no one had ever heard of, wiped out trillions of dollars of equity value in companies that were very loftonly priced in the AI space, which Peter and I had talked about a few weeks ago as a major risk. We’ve seen some of that come off. I think that’s interesting, but I think there are three other stories that are more interesting, more relevant to everyone listening today, day to day. Number one is what’s happened with interest rates. It’s been very quiet, but we’ve gone from about almost 5% a few weeks ago down to 4.4 that’s a pretty meaningful move in a traditional market. That would have meant a big jump in the stock market, and I’d rush to to high risk stocks. We’re not seeing that right now. So Andy, Peter, I’m kind of surprised by that. Peter, I’m sure, Andy, I’m sure you have ideas about what’s going on. But Peter, since you’re in the business of managing money every day, how are you thinking about this? Is this sort of unusual to you? And then you know, what do you think’s causing this dislocation? Because usually lower interest rates mean higher markets
Peter Boockvar 3:44
Absolutely. Because we know as the tenure got closer to 5% that sort of spooked markets as well. I point the finger at tariffs, because we’ve also seen a rise in inflation expectations as long end rates have fallen. So I think the market’s trying to digest what this will be, how it’ll play out, but I think that’s the factor, sort of a stagflationary response in the treasury market. You
Joe Duran 4:07
know, I was listening to some of the earnings reports today, and notice that I’m hearing now for the first time, earnings expectations being dampened by a strong dollar. Amazon in particular, had two and a half billion dollar impact from a stronger dollar, and it’s starting to now get out there. Hey, this is a good excuse now. And I always worry when you see big companies start using a common theme, and so is that, do you think perhaps people are starting to worry a little bit about earnings, and not just tariffs, but all of the interconnected pieces
Peter Boockvar 4:39
well on the checklist of what to worry about. As we entered earnings season, the strength of the dollar was definitely on that list. We also heard from Uber who blamed it and others, because the dollar has rallied against a lot of different currencies. Now these companies do have hedging programs, but you can’t hedge 100% of your foreign exchange. It. Exposure. So that’s definitely major impact in sort of teaming some of the expectations in terms of guidance, and unless the dollar weakens, I think that’s going to continue for the next couple of quarters.
Joe Duran 5:11
So Andy, I grew up in Zimbabwe. My second interesting story that Terry and I were talking about is I grew up accustomed to, like the government coming up with all kinds of stuff and a lot of unpredictability. And ever since I’ve been an American, I’m used to a reasonable amount of stability. I’ve never seen anything like the last two weeks. Tell me a little bit about how I should take all of this in perspective. It’s like every day there’s a new headline. I never know if we’re going to build a resort in in the desert or what’s happening next. So how should an investor react to some of this? Very active again, I’d rather not talk about politics, but just the implications of politics.
Andy Schwartz 5:51
I think the most important thing is not to react too much. You know, I’ve had a 40 year perspective, because I’ve been doing this for 40 years, and I’ve watched as different administrations that are so different come into office. If when a Barack Obama, Democrat comes in office, conservative clients are panicked and they want out. Big mistake. You know, when Trump came in the first time, the same thing, presidents typically don’t move the markets. So what I would say is, I know that it’s distracting. I would argue it’s entertaining at times. But I think if people are going to react, especially with with President Trump, because he is going to throw so many things out there every day, and if people are going to react every day, they’re going to whipsaw themselves and hurt themselves. So I think it’s really important to sort of try to stick the fundamentals and just block out the noise, because a lot of its noise,
Joe Duran 6:40
and so Peter, when you’re putting portfolios in place and you’re thinking about allocating, how do you differentiate something that will move the needle versus something that doesn’t like, how do you how do you think about it? Do you wait to see if something happens? Do you go, Well, this could have significant implications. Like, how do you think about that?
Peter Boockvar 7:00
I think it’s really separating out the noise and not and what has just the short term impact, what’s bigger picture? I mean, in 2017 the market was a straight line up in anticipation of Trump cutting the corporate income tax rate, that was a major factor, from a longer term perspective, in stepping up a new level of corporate earnings. So that was a big factor. You talk about the tariffs, again, we try to digest that. And is this just a short term thing? Are they going to stay on? Are they not? But it’s really sort of differentiating of what the influence is, whether it’s long term, where it’s not, if it’s long term, then I think you need to reassess what you have in terms of positioning. But if it’s just a short term impact and you still like your ideas, you need to just work through that.
Joe Duran 7:49
So Andy, we talk quite a lot, and you were talking about how, depending on your political bias, you’re going to be more optimistic or pessimistic. How do you get past that? Like again, we want people to do well and to win regardless of their political affiliation. So what do you do if you’re you know, on either coast and you’re very liberal, you’re going, Oh, this is the end of the world, which I hear all the time here in California, and I
Andy Schwartz 8:13
have both. So let me describe my conversation for my Uber conservative clients who are so excited when the S P is at 22 times earnings. I remind them that when Trump came into office the first time and again, I’m not saying what will happen or won’t happen, interest rates were zero. S and P is trading at 15 times, and we were lowering taxes today. S P at 22 times. Interest rates at now four and a half, but we’re getting close to five, and we’re hoping to hold on to the current tax structure now, if they can lower some corporate taxes or capital gains tax, whatever they want to try to do, they’ve got to pay for that. And the way they’re going to, I think, pay for that is through, again, terrorists, which we’ll talk about later. And I’m not saying that everything will work out, because it probably will in the long run, but in the short term, people have to be realistic about the setup, and the setup is different. So again, just try to, just try to use facts and information and not you know your your bias, because what you’re
Joe Duran 9:07
saying here, that’s very, very important, is that there is a fundamental difference in the backdrop, regardless of who’s in office, yes, and that whoever came in office had a favorable setting because of low interest rates, no good alternative. Everyone would talk about that, and also the fact that multiples were reasonable, and that whoever’s coming in now has a tougher job, simply because everything is more difficult, even if everything goes swimmingly, and
Andy Schwartz 9:37
so Peter and I talk about all the time. It’s about timing, you know. And sometimes your timing when you come into office is good, and maybe your ideas aren’t so good, and sometimes your timing is bad, and even if your ideas are good, it might not matter. And so yeah, timing is clearly going to be an issue with some of this,
Joe Duran 9:53
for sure. And so you’re talking to somebody who’s worried that the end of the world is coming. Yeah, what do you. Tell them like they’re like, valuations are really high, and the administration’s doing things that put us all at risk. There’s a bunch of 15 year olds looking at the financial data, and it’s got to be the end of the world, you know? Yeah. So anyway, what is the answer to that?
Andy Schwartz 10:14
Yeah. So to me, I again, I talk about the idea that, first of all, there’s a lot of smart people involved and and Trump, whatever the administration is talking about, and throwing things out every day, there’s not. They can’t do most of the things that they think they could do. I mean, they just can’t. And at the end of the day, not 494, 493, stocks and the S, p5 100 are trading at a reasonable level, right about 15 times. Seven stocks are trading at no speed levels, and that’s what brings the total average out. There are assets in the world that are reasonably priced, whether it’s domestic or foreign. And at the end of the day, if you buy quality assets, diversify your portfolio, and if you if your liquidity is set up properly, meaning that you’re not forced to sell some at the wrong time. And you are a long term investor, which I hope everyone is a long term investor, because if not, you should be liquid. I think things will be okay. I think the worst thing people could do is get emotionally involved. And who’s running, you know, the government on either side. I think it’s a huge mistake, and I think they it’s a losing proposition to try to time it. And I always say to clients, they say, get me out. This guy’s alluded to get me out. And I say, that’s great. I can get you out. But who’s going to call? Where are we going to get the phone call when it’s time to get back in? Because if the markets go down five or 10% they’re not going to feel better, they’re going to feel worse. And I’m going to call and say, well, we got out, it’s 5% cheaper time to get back in. And they’re like, Oh no, and then they’re going to watch the market go back up again. So I just think people have to get the emotions out of it. Just, you know, make a plan based on what your circumstances are, and try to stick to the best
Terri Kallsen 11:47
you can, you know. Andy, I just want to highlight that there’s a chief economic at BCG. I just interviewed him about a month ago, and he specifically wrote a book about this, how you know, if you are just reacting you’re going to lose in particular. And you know, he’s a His name is Philip Carlson slick, if any of you are interested. He’s out of Boston Consulting Group and writes an excellent story about how people should not be reacting to short term plans by any current president, not just Trump, it’s any president. So Terry,
Joe Duran 12:20
talk a little bit more about that, because I think you hear all this analysis, which better to have this President? It’s better at this Congress.
Terri Kallsen 12:28
So that’s right. Well, Philip actually has it in his book that there’s never been a president that has had an actual impact on the economy over that four year period, or eight year period, that there’s so many checks and balances in our government system that one person cannot change everything in the short term. And certainly we’ve seen that in the past. Historically, it’s true. We’ll see it now. Now there will be changes. Some will be good, some will be challenging, but it won’t necessarily impact you on a day to day basis,
Joe Duran 13:03
but if you’re in business, obviously a government that’s a little bit less regulation heavy, which is more of a tax on the system, maybe, you know, it has a modest implication of valuations, even though the economy itself might not be that different.
Peter Boockvar 13:17
That’s right. Yeah, policy matters from a micro perspective, but may not necessarily influence the stock market and in the aggregate,
Terri Kallsen 13:24
that’s right, and we do know that President Trump says he pays attention to the stock market, so that we know for sure. But can we talk about another great, big story, and that’s gold? I mean, this week, gold reached record highs and has had everyone’s attention, and Peter, you even commented on x that you reposted data on the macro strategist at Crescent capital and whether gold is overvalued or not. Can you walk us through your thoughts?
Peter Boockvar 13:52
Well, I don’t think gold is undervalued even at the levels it’s currently at. If you inflation adjust gold for its 1980 high, you’re talking about a price that’s closer to 3500 I think the persistent rally in gold is in the face of a very strong dollar, and in the face of higher interest rates, or persistently higher interest rates, is a tell that central banks are treating gold as a very Important reserve and outside of the US, I say outside of the US, because in the US, Western demand for gold is still relatively muted, but outside the US, demand for gold is very strong, and it is an important reserve asset. So while the dollar is rallying against other fiat currencies, the dollar is actually depreciating against gold.
Joe Duran 14:40
And you know, Terry, I tell you what’s interesting. It has always been said that it’s a better it’s protection against the dollar, and that Bitcoin serves a very similar purpose. And you know, I was in El Salvador, and interestingly enough, as you know, they one of the, I think, the only country I believe. That for the last four years has had Bitcoin be their official currency. And so we were there, we had many senior people from the finance department and the government there sharing their success on Bitcoin. This happened to be 24 hours before it stopped being the official currency. And it was kind of telling what they had to share with us, because even though, for four years, it’s been the official currency, and the reason they made the change, by the way, was so that 70% of the population is unbanked. So they don’t they don’t go to banks, they don’t deposit money, that that is not a thing there. And so they were hoping Bitcoin would allow people to have a non cash way of transacting, and made it the official currency. They had an app which they created called Chivo wallet, which was their official way of transacting. But three things got in the way of it that made it effective. And by the way, Bitcoin, interestingly enough, as you know, it broke 210,000 right where we talked about it a couple weeks ago. It’s not back down to the mid 90s, and it’s had a couple of black eyes hit it, but I think fundamentally, it was interesting to see the application of it and some of the limitations of Bitcoin. The first one was the volatility makes it very difficult to do business because you sell some a product, let’s say, a bicycle, it’s really hard to know how to price it when you might be selling it for 30% more, just on an overnight swing, or 20% or 10% more. So, unlike the US dollar that moves half a percent, a quarter percent, a 10th of a percent, you have no way of pricing these things to allow for the volatility of what you pay for it and when you sell it second, the actual ability for the people once they get paid the vendors to buy a new bicycle is non existent because the wholesalers don’t take Bitcoin, so it doesn’t matter that somebody’s paying your Bitcoin. But by the way, the transaction systems don’t allow for the person who is the middleman, that sales, person who sells you the bicycle to then go, use that to go once you buy the bicycle to go buy more bicycles, so it’s still basically using the US dollar. And then the third issue that gets in the way is that the actual app didn’t work and was able to get hacked. So people actually were losing their money by being hacked. So nobody trusts it. The effective usage rate, even though 70% of the population is unbanked, is 8% 8% of the population used it. So I think the IMF wanting to change the rules, the convenient way of saying, you know, it hasn’t worked, and that is one of the limits. Unlike gold that can be used for transactions, Bitcoin is still limited in its ability of true application, even in a country that said this is our official tender. So I think that is not to be ignored. It is a more interesting and fun and exotic way than gold, but it’s not as as known to work in a certain way as gold does as a true reserve of capital. About
Andy Schwartz 18:01
Peter for the last several years is, you know, and I take my lead for Peter, but bitcoin is not digital gold. Bitcoin might be a very valuable asset someday. I mean, it certainly might be. As long as people keep buying it, it will be, but it’s not digital gold. Because what bitcoin does, Bitcoin rallies when risk assets are rallying and Bitcoin falls when risk assets are falling. So when you think about it’s almost the opposite of what you would think of as gold, right? Because gold is sort of what you think of as a hedge. So I’m not saying it’s a bad asset to own, but I think that if people buy Bitcoin because they think they’re just buying the modern gold, I think that’s a mistake.
Joe Duran 18:37
And I’m sure you get the question all the time I want to buy bitcoin, yeah. What do you buy? Someone who says, I want some exposure, like, how much is too much? How much is the right amount? What would you say? Yeah.
Andy Schwartz 18:48
Look, first of all, we have, I own some we have clients that own some bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is a one to 2% asset in a portfolio. It’s it’s not a core position. It’s not a position that we say that everybody has to own but we have quite a few clients that own it, and now it’s easier to own. You can just buy the ETF, but Yeah, and look again. There’s not a balance sheet, there’s not earnings. There’s no way to really value or evaluate why is it $97,000 today? Why might it be $100,000 tomorrow? But if the world keeps buying it as the world might then, you know? So, yeah, one to 2% I think is reasonable.
Terri Kallsen 19:28
Yeah, I agree. I mean, we talk a lot about emergency funds. Can you imagine the people in El Salvador having their emergency funds and Bitcoin right now, but they think they have six months, and now it’s down to two weeks in any one day. So really an important topic to think about in your portfolio. The other thing I have a question for you guys quiz time, who is, what country is the largest holder of Bitcoin as of the end of 2024
Joe Duran 19:55
the US? Yes. Little yes, we’re the biggest in everything. Yeah,
Terri Kallsen 20:02
yes. So hopefully, you know, our viewers, if they have Bitcoin, they’re thinking about it the right way, one to 2% if they’re holding it. But still, the US is one of the largest holders of any bitcoin, alright. So today, the big topic we’re going to drill in a little bit deeper is really around tariffs. You know, we really want to catch our viewers up on what’s happening with tariffs. As you know, President Trump put a 10% on China while giving a 30 day reprieve to Mexico and Canada. So, you know, our first question from our viewers are, are we in a trade war with China and is one looming with NAFTA and the EU Peter, do you want to start this off for us?
Peter Boockvar 20:44
So I think it’s important to look at tariffs in three different buckets in terms of how they’re being used. The first one, we got to see with Canada and Mexico, where it was more used as a cudgel to achieve a certain end, closing the borders, keeping the migrants out, keeping the fentanyl out. Then you have another bucket, which is in order to protect us industry like steel and aluminum, where encourage production overseas to come back to the US. The third one we’re going to have to see could be used as a fundraising technique to pay for the extension of the Trump tax cuts that are expiring at the end of this year. So that’s how it sort of space it out. China right now, we’re sort of creating the trade war by initiating the tariffs. So I think that is sort of in between all three of them. But where we go with Europe, we’ll have to see where we go with in terms of fundraising. We’ll have to see. But they’re coming, they’re here, and it’s going to have economic implications. And I think it’s important that investors should look at what the experience was in 2018 and what was the economic impact then, and what what drove, Fed policy in response to that, so we can debate tariffs, but at least we have recent precedent for the impact that we can analyze.
Terri Kallsen 22:07
That’s right. Andy, you know, you think about clients and their portfolios. What are your thoughts here? And should people still be contributing to their 401? K,
Andy Schwartz 22:16
yeah. I mean, if you contribute to your four, okay, then presumably that’s a long term. You know, asset, the beauty of the four, 1k contributions, your dollar cost averaging, it could be every two weeks, every month. So the volatility we’re talking about, it could be really bad for a quarter. One of the things that’s interesting, and we’ll see if we can break this habit. But the market has gotten so reflexive that we go down three and 4% and then we and everybody buys a dip. Now, eventually, I guess that could stop, and when it stops, it might be ugly, meaning, if we don’t buy the dip, and the market goes down a little bit more than we’re accustomed to seeing. But again, yeah, I think certainly a 401, K, being able to dollar cost average is a great way to not have to worry about it to mitigate, you know, the volatility That’s
Terri Kallsen 23:00
right. Andy, we’ve talked before about, you know, sometimes things go on sale, and that’s maybe the right time to invest, as long as you have the long term view, right, as long as it’s longer than three to five years, I think that’s probably the good decision. And when
Andy Schwartz 23:14
we talk about this idea, like, and Peter’s alluding to 2018 and obviously that wasn’t a very good outcome. And so, yeah, there’s definitely the possibility that we could see a cheaper market. The market’s expensive. It’s might be priced for perfection, and tariffs aren’t necessarily a good thing for anybody. So I don’t, we wouldn’t suggest people selling their equities, you know, now they might be in an IRA, so it might be a tax issue, but we because then you’re timing the market, but if you have liquidity, then what I would say is maybe patience makes sense. So opposed to just dumping money in all upfront, it wouldn’t make sense, you know, to maybe spread out in dollar cost average, even maybe set some price targets for yourself. Because if you’re wrong and the market goes up, at least you didn’t come out with the assets you already had in the market. So your only loss was sort of, what could you have earned on that additional liquidity? And so I’m not saying that we should ignore, you know, what the financial situation is, or what are, what we think might happen, but you can’t wholesale go in and out with your assets, and if you’re a non qualified account, meaning you’re going to pay taxes, then it’s a complete disaster, because you could be wrong, and you’ll have to pay the taxes. So again, maybe around the edges, you know, we can try to pay attention, but I don’t think we should pay too much attention with our overall investing.
Terri Kallsen 24:26
Exactly. So the other thing, Joe, this is a question. I know you’re a history buff, and I know you’ve got a lot of perspective on this, but there’s some concern a 1930s style trading war. You know, back then, President Hoover signed a bill that raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. Other countries responded by raising their own tariffs on American goods. Is this back and forth? We’re starting to see now that ultimately, you know, worsened things and potentially led to the Great Depression. Joe, what you’re following this? What are you thinking?
Joe Duran 24:58
Just remember the 19. 30s wasn’t the that was the the middle of the Great Recession. You know, it started in 1928 and people were so petrified, they went to populist strategies, which is, we just have to keep our own money in our borders. We have to create jobs in our own borders. So we’re not in that situation. Today, we are clearly shifting away from a globalist view of the world like that is true, and whether it’s one way or the others. Peter, I think, outlined very well, tariffs can be used for many ways. Donald Trump uses a negotiating chip. It’s not something many administrations have done, but he’s clearly saying, hey, Canada, Mexico, I’m putting it on a Tuesday, unless you do the X, X, Y and Z. I mean, we saw with Columbia, they had a plane full while he’s on the golf course, they had a plane full of no convicts, people who were being taken out of the country, illegal immigrants, that most of them convicts, were sent to Colombia, and Colombia refused to accept them. And he said, Well, if you don’t take them by the end of playing playing golf. I mean, x, y and z, guess what? Columbia sent a plane and picked them up. So to him, that’s like, Well, that was a tariff ship. He did the same thing with Canada Mexico about immigrants and about fentanyl coming in through the border, and he’s using it in that context for that purpose. Now, if it were to escalate, which is highly, highly unlikely, because we’re so still deeply intertwined in ways that we were not back then, in every way, like technology and monetary flows, in tourism, like it’s an honor, the world is so much smaller now than it was then. You know, you can get to Europe from from America in seven or eight hours from 10 hours, 11 hours from the West Coast, it used to be a multi week boat trip. So, you know, it’s a totally different world. And so therefore the tariffs are unimaginable in that level. Does that mean it’ll create volatility, sure, but the likelihood of that come again, I’d be much more concerned about valuations and interest rates for your day to day concerns,
Terri Kallsen 27:02
exactly. So let’s talk about the three big stories for next week, because we’re going to continue to watch the tariffs and the impact it’s having on the markets in the economy. But Joe, I’m really curious to find out. You know, what do you think the big stories are coming up? I’m
Joe Duran 27:19
obviously interested to see where these tariffs things go. We don’t, it’s only not a couple weeks left in what’s going to happen with Mexico and Canada, and those are our biggest trading partners. So those, those do actually have some consequence for jobs. I again, I think he’s negotiating to get what he wants. He wants to get a better deal. I don’t think he wants to create pain on anyone. So again, it’s a, it’s a, we’re going to flex a little because we’re the winning power. And by the way, this happens in corporate America all the time. Big companies use their size to change the terms of their pricing, to negotiate better contracts. And we’re a great country, and we’re very anyone who does business with us is fortunate to do it. And I could say that if somebody’s blessed to be an American, I don’t mind flexing a little. And again, I don’t want to make this political. Maybe there’s better ways to do it. You have to give people face saving way out. But what happens next week? And as we keep negotiating, I think it’s important, you know? So that’s one of them, obviously, Peter, there’s some the Fed’s going to be out there talking next week. Thoughts on what might happen there? Well, they’re
Peter Boockvar 28:21
good. They’re going to have some some data to talk about the the CPI comes out next week in addition to ppi, and those will be pretty important. I think the Fed is sort of settling into a timeout phase of their interest rate policy to see how the new administration plays out in terms of the tariffs, what makes what comes of tax policy. At the same time, the economy is still hanging in there, growing at around two and a half percent. So even if we do get some benign inflation stats, I still think that the Fed will sit on their hands, but at least we get to hear from them, get some updated thoughts from what they’re thinking.
Joe Duran 29:00
I mean, I’d say lastly, Andy, we have no doubt that next year, that next week, there will be news from the president that’s going to rattle the markets. It’s almost inconceivable that there isn’t. The question is, do you start to lessen the reaction in the markets, anything you’re thinking about, anything you’re concerned about, for next week? No,
Andy Schwartz 29:18
just, I would just think that we want to keep everybody calm. I mean, when a market’s, I mean, again, what are we 1% from all time highs? Again? I mean, I know today there was some, you know, negativity in some of the markets, but you know, when you’re one to 2% from all time highs, when something happens, whether it’s geopolitical or an announcement, that sort of takes everybody’s by surprise. The market doesn’t like uncertainty, and you know that is creating some uncertainty, but again, it’s typically short term uncertainty, so we’re not going to react. We just want to make sure that the allocations our clients have match their plan. And so if a client calls me and says, Oh my God, what do you think is going to happen the market next week, if that money isn’t going to be used for 15 years, what I would like to say to the client is. Do you think I care? And should you care? Because it doesn’t matter what happens next week. What matters is what’s going to happen over the next 15 years with that money. If you have money that you need to spend on something, whether it’s your kid’s tuition in the fall or whether it’s a down payment or a house in the next 12 months, that money should not, in my opinion, be invested, because in all this uncertainty, there will be volatility. So we just have to make sure that we square away. You know how we’re allocating our funds? Funds that are needed for life should not be invested in the short term, and funds that are long term can be invested and life altering
Joe Duran 30:33
wealth. You know, don’t mess with your life altering wealth. You can have play money, but that should be where your life altering wealth is. You use life altering decisions to make to play with your life altering wealth. Unfortunately,
Terri Kallsen 30:45
guys, we used to do three buckets, right? So what bucket number one was money I need in the next year, then bucket number two was money that I may need over the next three to five years, and then bucket three was that money that I wouldn’t even need for 10 to 2030, years, and really managing within those buckets helps people think through what their risk tolerance is with each bucket. Yeah, all right, so I think that wraps up for the day. Thank you for like,
Joe Duran 31:16
we COVID, all of the world’s problems so easy, yeah,
Terri Kallsen 31:22
at least for this week, but we’ll have more to do next week. But thank you all for watching, really. Thank you for joining in. Thank you for your questions. We’d like to hear from you. What other topics would you like us to cover? What questions do you have? Please comment and, more importantly, subscribe to us every week, thanks for watching rise up. We’ll see you next week. Thanks, Dave, thanks. Thank you. You.
