Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday he was ready to advance a U.S.-backed framework for ending the war with Russia and discuss disputed points with U.S. President Donald Trump in talks he said should include European allies.
Liquidity watch: On Tuesday, the Fed’s standing repo facility jumped to $10.6B (from just $10M on Monday) and the overnight general collateral repo rate jumped to 4.095% (from 3.99%). On the other hand, 10-year Treasury yields fell to 3.99% on reports White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to replace Chair Powell. For the record, we view these reports as standard Trump strategy of overreach and subsequent compromise. We doubt Hassett could gain Senate confirmation given his prominent profile as a Trump administration operative.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Masato Kanda said the Bank has amended its energy policy to pave the way for support of nuclear power in developing member countries. Founded in 1966 and owned by 69 member states, ADB committed $3.8B to energy projects in 2024. As part of the new policy, ADB has entered an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to cooperate in supporting countries in Asia and the Pacific who are exploring nuclear energy as part of their energy and development strategies.
The October U.S. budget deficit exploded to an all-time (Oct.) record of $284.4B (vs. $257.5B in ’24), marking the worst budget deficit start to a fiscal year in history. Among contributors to the 17.9% y/y jump in outlays (to $688.7B) was $104B in interest expense, which has now totaled $1.24T over past 12 months (rapidly approaching Social Security’s $1.59T as the largest federal government expense).
After estimating Oct. payroll growth of 42k on 11/5, ADP’s weekly payroll data (released in void of federal data) has taken a sudden about face and now estimates private companies have lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks.
Conference Board’s November consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 (vs. 93.3 est. & Oct. 95.5), the lowest since April’s “liberation day.”
Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, S&P futures +0.1% and +0.15%. DXY dollar index +0.15%, spot gold +0.7% and spot silver +1.5%.
