Stephanie Pomboy: Market Overvalued By 40-50% (Or More)?

Stephanie Pomboy 0:00
So, as to the timeframe on when that happens, it really depends again, on when and how quickly the markets begin to revert to normal valuations, which would require a haircut of significant magnitude. I mean, I haven’t done the math in a while. But, you know, it was 40 50% on the stock market, just based on that traditional Buffett metric of stock market cap to GDP, you know, a couple of months ago, so I can’t imagine it’s improved any materially. So, you know, we’re talking about a major haircut

Adam Taggart 0:42
Welcome to Wealthion. I’m Wealthion founder Adam Taggart. Thanks for joining us for part two of our interview with macro analysts Stephanie Pomboy, if you haven’t watched part one of this discussion with Stephanie, in which she delivers the data that convinced her that a painful recession is all but inevitable. Despite what current headlines say, head over to our channel at youtube.com/wealthion. And watch it there. First, it sets the context for the investment themes we discussed in this video. Okay, let’s get started watching part two of our interview with Stephanie Pomboy. We’ve been talking a bit about inflation. We’ve mentioned deflation very slightly. I know that you were I’ll say teen deflation, that doesn’t mean you’re wishing it upon us. But I think you’ve long said that you think that that is going to be the dominant outcome here? Do we see it in 2024? In your your eyes?

Stephanie Pomboy 1:37
Well, I mean, I’m going to cop out on you. And it all depends on what the markets do. You know, I see secular deflation as the bigger issue. And that’s a function of debt and demographics. You know, there are no more powerful forces for deflation than debt and demographics. And we’ve got a both of those in spades when it comes to deflationary pressures,

Adam Taggart 2:01
that say that you’re a great company there, Lacey Hunt is right beside you.

Stephanie Pomboy 2:06
There is no better company than that. And so that is not to preclude cyclical inflation within the context of the secular deflation just like you can have a cyclical bull market in the context of a secular bear market, it’s really the same idea. And so, you know, this inflation that we’ve seen, just like the inflation we saw in 2007, eight, can quickly fizzle with, you know, financial asset deflation, and debt deleveraging, essentially, which is, you know, incredibly deflationary. As to the timeframe on when that happens, it really depends, again, on when and how quickly, the markets begin to revert to normal valuations, which would require a haircut of significant magnitude. I mean, I haven’t done the math in a while. But, you know, it was 40 50% on the stock market, just based on that traditional Buffett metric of stock market cap to GDP, you know, a couple of months ago, so I can’t imagine it’s improved any materially. So, you know, we’re talking about a major haircut. And then again, we get into the whole issue that you and I have talked about, about the hit to corporate and public pensions, and how that will play out in the reverse wealth effects, which is also deflationary. But, so, timing, obviously, not my forte, I think your audience is probably nodding rigorously in agreement. That timing is not my forte. But over the long haul, I think, you know, clearly, he will see lower inflation, this was a cyclical increase was due to, you know, both supply chain issues and overlaid fiscal and monetary stimulus, kind of a perfect blend of stuff. That’s now dissipating. So that’s, that’s what I got for you. I’m going to guess what your next question is. And that is, Do I like bond yields? Bonds treasury bonds in here? Because of the my inflation view? Is that your next question?

Adam Taggart 4:19
That is a sub bullet. So my next question was, where do you see the markets going from here? So look, anything you want to put around what potential arc you see in the markets, and I know that you’ve just very qualified saying, Look, I’m not not the world’s best timing picker, but I think you’ve got the curve, right. But yes, you know, what, what sort of preferred assets do you see moving forward from here and what assets would you want to avoid? I’m going to put some words in your mouth, which you can react to, which is, I’m going to think, to the extent that you see the markets is getting increasingly challenged. From here you’re going to say most equities probably want to lighten up on, given what you said earlier, if I listened correctly, I think you’re saying you’re probably a fan of longer. You’re probably a fan of US Treasuries. I mean, obviously, everyone’s a fan of them right now in the short end, but you’re probably a fan of them beginning to move out on the longer end, because I do think you see, the Fed will come back and start buying them again, you mentioned that they might even start there versus cutting rates. But I think you think they’re gonna have to cut rates at some point, too. So there’s, in the intro, I mentioned that there are people that are kind of all of a sudden right now there’s two camps with bonds, one saying, Oh, my God, I wouldn’t touch a long term US Treasury with a 10 foot pole right now, because rates are only going to continue going higher. And when this new secular era, I don’t think you’re on that train, but clarify.

Stephanie Pomboy 5:45
Yeah, no, I’m not on that trade. I first off, one of the mysteries to me is how the market has held up as well as it has in the face of five and a half percent T bill yields. You know, if I can get five and a half percent in the six months bill, I don’t know why I would do anything else. Other than that.

Adam Taggart 6:04
We’re up at the equity premiums, the lowest it’s been in over 15 years.

Stephanie Pomboy 6:08
And you know, when you look at this spread, similarly, between six months bills and investment grade paper, you’re getting 50 basis points more to buy an investment grade bond, which as I said earlier, you know, half of those bonds are trading one rung above junk, you know, they’re one downgrade away from being junk. So why would you take that chance, you know, for six months, you’re getting paid to wait to see how things flesh out and to see whether we’re going to have a hard landing or no landing or the Feds gonna pivot or China is going to do this or bad Jeff, Bank of Japan yield curve control. I mean, you have six months, at five and a half percent, they advise you a lot of time to just sit back and analyze. So that would be my current go to longer term, I’ll be looking for an entry point in, you know, longer data treasuries. And that will really be, I think, soon, around an inflection point in the economy. I mean, you’ve seen, of course, the Atlanta Fed GDP forecasts at 5.9%, I think is the number so far for the third quarter. But bear in mind, you know, the third quarter is the month of July, August and September. So far, they only have data for July. And that’s what this forecast is derived from, they’re extrapolating the July data out through the quarter. And we’re already seeing, as I mentioned earlier, a real shift here in August, as those higher gasoline prices impacted consumer sentiment, the weekly retail sales, you know, there are a lot of indicators that August has already seen a shift, and then you layer on the end of the student loan suspension at the end of this month, and you have the potential that September could look pretty ugly, on the economic front. So I think that Atlanta Fed forecast will come down and there’ll be an inflection kind of in the economy. And at that point, you might really want to start to extend out and look at longer dated treasuries that have hit sort of their Apogee here. But you’re right, I wouldn’t be touching any risk asset with a 10 foot pole here. I wouldn’t be long equities, other than the gold miners that I’m long, which of course have traded like dogs, but that’s to be expected. And I certainly wouldn’t be long junk, or investment grade credit. It globally there. You know, I might look to own some of the resource producers that we talked about. But you know, and I am long Japan. So those are, you know, a handful of things. But those are real, more speculative plays. For me, my core positions continue to be cash and gold. And eventually I think I’ll start, you know, stretching out on the Treasury curve. But that’s it. You know, I’m pretty boring right now.

Adam Taggart 8:58
And okay, well, so when you say cash, I assume you mean, either fun or in short term tables. Okay. And, again, don’t let me put words in your mouth here, but we don’t get too many, like kind of obvious. Investment plays, you know, as people who watch the markets, and you know, there was one I saw, what, a year and a half ago, I think it was with the eye bond. Oh, yeah, we talked about that. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Where you’re getting paid like nine point you’re gonna get guaranteed 9.6%, right, guaranteed by the federal government. Like why would you not do that? Right. Right. Right. To your point, like, if you have uncertainty right now, which I think most investors probably do, you know, then why not just park and get five plus percent in it. And then when things get clear, you’ve got the liquidity to move, right. It’s just, it’s such a it’s such a relatively prudent step to do here. You’re nodding as I’m saying this, but I’d love for you to just chime in to make sure you’re saying that. Yeah, this is sort of one of those is obvious moments where it’s really very little downside to that.

Stephanie Pomboy 10:04
Yeah, absolutely. You’re getting paid to wait. And, and I think the degree to which no one is really doing that, stunningly is evident when you look at the screen and the markets up and junk bonds are rallying, you know that people are still taking the chance that we’re gonna have at no landing and the Feds gonna pivot and everything’s gonna be fine. And the, you know, the shortest sharpest tightening cycle in the history of the Federal Reserve will end up being a big yawn. That’s the bet they’re making and they’re making it for you know, like I said earlier, 50 basis point pick up on an industry grade paper. I it’s just mind boggling to me. It’s not a trade I would ever make,

Adam Taggart 10:46
but stuff. Ai.

Stephanie Pomboy 10:48
Right. Oh, I’m sorry, Nvidia, how do I not know? Oh, my gosh, in fact, this isn’t Stephanie POM boy that’s been speaking to you. It’s my avatar.

Adam Taggart 10:57
It’s your chat GPT. Six generated?

Stephanie Pomboy 11:01
Actually, if that were true, she would have done a much better job. But there we are. Authentic me and you can tell

Adam Taggart 11:11
on it. All right. Look, I want to get into my last material question real quick, though, just because folks are gonna want me to ask this. You did say that you are still your favorable on gold. Your gold thesis hasn’t changed?

Stephanie Pomboy 11:25
No. Okay. No. Yeah, no, no, I mean, the end game. I see, I, as I said earlier, you know, I don’t see how we get out of this without the Fed going back to QE. And And if my scenario comes to pass, you and I’ve talked about this, you know, many interviews ago about the potential increase in pension underfunding status. And you know how that could mushroom very quickly, just like it did after the.com Bubble bust, and after the global financial crisis, to a point that there might have to be some kind of bailout, at least to the public pension funds. And that would require, again, you know, some significant lift from the Federal Reserve, in helping with that. So you know, I’m crazy, I think it would be very easy to see the Fed’s balance sheet over $10 trillion, no problem. And in an environment like that, to say nothing of what’s going on around the world with these bricks plus, and just the geopolitical tensions, etc. I’d much rather own gold than anything else. Right now, I’d you know, I think the dollar is, in its final fits here.

Adam Taggart 12:45
So I, I agree with you in I buy hold a fair amount of gold. So it’s not just my words. That being said, I do feel compelled just to toss this thought out there, which is I would have thought that when the Fed balance sheet went from little under 4 trillion to 9 trillion, or whatever it was, you know, that gold would have had a much bigger move than it did. And I still believe that there’s sort of a lag effect that’s going to catch up with a lot of the stuff we’ve talked about where gold probably will have a catalytic move higher here at some point, but I’d like to get your thoughts on this.

Stephanie Pomboy 13:21
Yeah, no, I agree with you on that. And, you know, it’s interesting, because I went back and looked, if you look at from 2007, to today, the s&p and gold are up exactly the same. So you know, when people like me, I don’t know to what extent you get tarnished with this, but I get targeted to perma bear on the stock market, you know, and copping out and bifolding gold, which is just sucked so badly. In reality, they both performed exactly the same. So it’s a little unfair. But, you know, my, I would totally agree with you that I was disappointed that we didn’t see a more spectacular rising gold Alongside this, you know, new innovation called quantitative easing. But I would also say that I’ve been impressed with its performance in the face of unprecedented tightening by the Federal Reserve. I mean, I as you know, very well, I never thought the Fed was going to raise rates, much less to the degree and with the speed that they have. And if you had told me they were going to do that, and that gold would have been essentially unchanged over the year that they did that. I would have viewed that, you know, that is an incredibly impressive performance. I think

Adam Taggart 14:39
that’s a good point. People talk about how gold is real real rates that drive gold, right. And more positive real rates get it’s worse for gold. Well, real rates have really zoomed higher in a way they haven’t done a long time and gold is really hung in there. You’re making a really good point.

Stephanie Pomboy 14:54
Yeah, yeah. No, so you know, we may be disappointed on the QE side, but impressed on the Qt side? And you know, we’ll call it a wash. How about that?

Adam Taggart 15:06
All right. All right. Well, here’s the last point. And I really have been looking forward to talk about this with you. Which is, you know, you’ve said that you think at some point the Fed is going to have to pivot and probably first by easing again, but then bringing rates down, right? And that’s, that’s kind of in response to things breaking, right? It’s why we talked about the lag effect, right? That the this, this gravitational force that’s pulling down, the economy is going to get so strong, that things are gonna start crumbling under it, and at some point, it’s gonna get so bad, the Fed is going to have to intervene. Right. That’s the logic. My question to you is, I think that’s all going to happen. But how, how worried? How much do you worry or give thought to the fact that maybe the real breaking point here we should be more concerned with is not a financial or economic one, but a social one? Right. So I talked to Peter Atwater, recently, and I’m going to mention that in just a second. But I think we already talked a fair amount about kind of the struggles that the consumer households having right now, if you want to add any color to that, feel free to but But certainly, the bottom 80%, I would even argue the bottom 90% of Americans are increasingly finding themselves in a struggle, right? Real wages have not kept up, I think they’ve started growing relatively recently, but I think it was 25 consecutive months of negative real wage declines, while the cost of living zoomed higher than that honestly, kind of in living memory for most folks. Right. So they’re getting increasingly squeezed, everything we talked about here just says sort of diminished prosperity in the future, if the outcome you think is going to happen, indeed happens from here. There’s a chart that I’ll try to put up here, when I edit this, that shows the qualifying household income for buying a house. Yes. And it has more than doubled since the pandemic, right. So the forget about the brass ring, just like the the aluminum foil ring of just being able to like just just keep your head above water just seems to get be getting further and further apart from more and more people. And I talked with Peter about this, and he’s very concerned about the growing wealth gap, as you know, from your your interviews with him. And he talked about the danger of, of a mass upwelling of what he called Shared hopelessness, right? If when enough people, you know, have this sense of like, it’s, there’s just no, you know, there’s nothing, there’s nothing I can do to get ahead, right, and they just start giving up. So really bad things happen after that. And right after I interviewed him, there was this while I interviewed Neil Howe, about his new book about the fourth turning, and we got all into the whole fourth turning and all the things you expect to see during one. And which for those that don’t know, the fourth turning that that’s when things really begin to fall apart societally. And the social status quo breaks down, and a new order comes out of the rubble. But we had this sort of viral explosion of this song called the Richmond north of Richmond. Have you seen it? Stephanie? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And, and to me, that was sort of a sign of what Neil and Peter both talked about, where, you know, the social pressure, start building where you get these manifestations of, you know, the mindset, that gestalt of what’s going on at the social level, and then then once it’s out there, people can start rallying around it and say, Yeah, you know, I’m either angry, and I’m going to use that standard to go grab my pitchfork and rally under, or like, that’s how I’m going to, you know, demand change of my elected officials or whatnot. And so it seems like we are seeing more and more of the fault lines and fracturing of the status quo that you expect to see in the fourth turning happen. And it’s this theme, I think of shared hopelessness, that’s driving an awful lot of it. Right. So I’m just curious with all that buildup, you know, what thoughts do you have on this in terms of like the dangers of a real social real risk to our social cohesion here as the so many that are getting left behind or maybe like finally finding a voice or in Peter outward waters parlance, hitting their their effort state where it’s just like, I don’t care about to quorum anymore. I’m not able to make it under this and I’m going to start breaking rules. You mentioned Dick’s Sporting Goods. One of the reasons why they’ve basically been guiding guidance downward so much in the future is because they’re shutting stores because people are just shoplifting like in broad daylight.

Stephanie Pomboy 19:46
Yep. Well, I was gonna bring up the shoplifting thing. But what I was saying is, you know, this is why I watch Real Housewives to escape, all kidding aside that I mean, it is there is such have a sense of hopelessness out there. And I’m, your audience will laugh at this. But I am a deeply optimistic person, you know, if you know me personally, you know, I’m generally a very happy, optimistic person. And I try not to dwell on things that are negative, and, you know, depressing. You know, I don’t go watch for movies and that kind of stuff. I still haven’t seen Schindler’s List because I know it would depress the hell out of me for years and years and years. Again, there’s real housewives but you know, so this is a topic that, you know, it’s so resonant. I mean, they’re, they’re signs of it everywhere. And as you said, I’m like, this shoplifting craze. And in theory, so here, on the one hand, we have the Atlanta Fed, for casting 5.9% growth in GDP market thinks we’re gonna have no landing and everything’s fabulous. And on the other hand, retailers are having to set aside money for shoplifting losses, in in huge fashion. I mean, FactSet, you know, has been counting the references to this, what are they called shrink now, from the shoplifting effect. And that just doesn’t speak to an economy that’s strong and everything that’s well, and I think that’s why you see these the sentiment numbers. And again, you know, it does also point up this kind of ridiculousness, this sort of absurdity of our focus on these stupid inflation numbers. You know, each month, the Fed kind of Pat’s itself on the back that it’s bringing inflation down? Well, all it’s doing is taking an obscene increase in the cost of living for the average American and increasing it at a slightly slower pace, they’re just turning the screw slightly less aggressively than they were for the last year and a half. So the pain continues to compound and they continue to be squeezed higher and higher. And yet, Wall Street breeds these lower inflation numbers, as you know, mana from heaven, because it means the pivot is going to come and everything’s going to be great. So the contrast between those two worlds is stark. And, you know, I, I don’t want to get into the political thing. But the political partisanship, the stark revision between, you know, the people on one side, and the other is so extreme, and the hatred on each side for the other is so extreme, and the measures that they will take and the lengths they will go to, to keep the other side down or whatever, you know, it’s just reaching a point where I agree, you know, it’s worrisome, it definitely is. And it’s especially worrisome for someone like me, who thinks that we haven’t even gotten to the hard part yet.

Adam Taggart 22:58
One of the reasons why I really wanted to ask you this, right, yeah,

Stephanie Pomboy 23:00
I mean, you know, the one good thing about 2007. Eight is, we went into it in a much better place, I mean, households were in a much worse place in balance sheet standpoint, but from a psychological, societal standpoint, we’ve we’re in a much better place. And then you think about, you know, I don’t want to get too dark, it’s already so depressing. But you think about all the fentanyl and the opioid abuse. And, you know, it doesn’t seem like it’s a coincidence that we’ve had this increase in suicides and drug deaths, etc.

Adam Taggart 23:38
Not just increased, but record numbers now of both of those, yeah, suicides, overdoses,

Stephanie Pomboy 23:43
it speaks to a society that’s in a dark place. And again, you know, I’m just struck by the contrast between that, and when you flip on your Bloomberg screen and what you see there, and what you hear when you turn on CNBC about how strong the consumer is, and how everything’s great. So, you know, one of these is not right. One of these is a real view. And unfortunately, I think it’s the man on the street that has the narrative, right. But, you know, here’s hoping that, you know, when the pendulum swings to one extreme, then you can have this renaissance and swing back the other way. And that’s the optimist in me hopes that, you know, what we can do is have a little bit of a catharsis and a reset in a positive way. And I think, you know, go back to more traditional values and priorities and a government that’s a little bit more for the people than for Wall Street and the you know, the big pharma companies or whatever, you know, let’s let’s have it be a little more II egalitarian, and get back to what you know, this country was all about, but it may take some real Pain for us to get there. But, you know, again, I’m just a nerdy economist. So that’s my view for,

Adam Taggart 25:07
ya know, I certainly don’t have the answers to this, and I appreciate you, you entertaining this topic with me. But you’re just somebody who I think has a really, you know, a high perception view of what is what is probable from here. Right. So it’s interesting to get your sense of concern, which I would put as sort of a high.

Stephanie Pomboy 25:28
Why Yeah, and what’s really worrisome to Adam is, you know, this, the, the reckless, reckless speculation and greed that the Fed has encouraged over the last decade, that has created these bubbles, and the, you know, the zombie corporations that employ 2 million people, and, you know, this new things like private credit that didn’t exist 10 years ago, and leveraged loans. And, you know, we’ve, we’ve got all these speculative enterprises. And at the end of the day, and you and I have talked about this a lot, it’s Joe sixpack, that’s gonna get left holding the bag, because his pension to the extent he has one owns all this stuff. Plus, a lot of these companies, you know, when they get hit, are going to lay people off. So they’re either going to take the hit in their pension, or they’re going to lose their job. And it’s just, it was all unnecessary, had the Fed not been so irresponsible, and built up these excesses over the course of a decade.

Adam Taggart 26:37
And I keep coming back to the importance of policy, because sadly, it has such an impact on so many people’s lives. I actually decided, as you were answering earlier that I was not going to make this point, but I now have to make it because you just made the point about pensions, where one of the things that I’m potentially concerned about too, and would like to get a sense for your level of concern is I definitely see social fracturing, increasing between sort of the haves and the have nots. I talked about that. So that’s gonna happen, right? And we can, you know, argue how merited it is, I mean, I’m right there with you and saying that we have an obscene wealth gap. And we’ve got to address that right. Also, Neil Howe thinks that he says, Look, this is all to be expected. This is what fourth turnings do. And he said, centralized control. That’s what gets dialed up in a fourth turning as the solution. In fact, the populace demands more of it. So we can probably expect, like redistributive policies eventually coming out of all this stuff, right? So I don’t think too many people are going to shed too many tears for, you know, the top 10%, top 1% as this goes on. But to your point about Joe sixpack, who gets screwed? Yes, I think it’s gonna happen. Now, what I’m concerned about is the Joe Sixpack with a pension versus the Joe Sixpack out, because these pension funds, as you and I have talked about, right is highly probable a number of them are going to implode, right, given the way that they’re currently mismanaged. That is probably going to require highly likely to require rescue efforts, bailouts, most likely funded by the taxpayer in one way, shape, or form, right. And I also fear the iron socially, the fracturing amongst the Joe Sixpack crowd of Wait a minute. I just lost my job. You know, my meager savings have been hurt, my home price has gone down. Why are my taxes going up? To pay for my neighbor? Who’s got a pension? Right, I work just as hard as that guy, you know, and yet, I, you know, I’m having to cover for that. Right. So how, how much of a concern do you have about that?

Stephanie Pomboy 28:50
Yeah, you and I have talked about this. And I think, you know, my cop out has generally been that. This is why I don’t think they will make a clear connection between, you know, a bailing out of the pension funds, ostensibly much less raise taxes on the average person to pay for it, you know, I would view these bailouts as being sort of indirect bailouts, where the federal government will come up with some program where they buys their assets directly. Yeah. And they and that will be funded in part by the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet or providing the funding for the government to, you know, absorb some of these losses or whatever. So it will be a backdoor thing, which nevertheless, Adam, as you say, what Joe Sixpack with or without a pension will pay for in the form of reduced purchasing power. So it’s still going to be a massive hit. But I think that the government will be shrewd enough not to come out and say, All right, you know what, I think they’ve seen what’s happened with the student loan thing at least I would hope with people who are responsible and pay their student loans getting incensed by the idea that all A sudden, their neighbor who didn’t pay their loans should be able to get away with that. Exactly. That’s

Adam Taggart 30:06
one reason why I’m bringing it up, because we’re going to see that next month, right again, we’re going to, we’re going to see that dynamic continue to play out. Right? And maybe it’s going to turn into Shodan. Freud. Now, who knows?

Stephanie Pomboy 30:18
Yeah, I mean, the other thing with the pensions, is that the government could create a bailout fund, per se, and then require that the pensions hold some enormous percent of their assets and treasuries, in which case, you know, they find a way essentially, to sell finance this thing. So, you know, there are a lot of little tweaks they can do. And I do think that it will probably involve some level of a haircut for the engineers. Yeah. And so again, the the Joe Sixpack gets hit, because he’s either going to have his purchasing power destroyed, or he just gonna get, you know, watered down in terms of what he expected to get in terms of pension. But all in all, I mean, haven’t we gotten dark enough?

Adam Taggart 31:09
We have, I’m sorry, that there, but But honestly, Stephanie, thank you for doing that with me. Because I really do respect your, your, your expertise on that. You’re, you’re somebody who both knows the data really closely, which everybody knows from having just listened to this hour and 35 minute conversation we’ve just had, thank you so much for giving us so much time. But also, I know that you and I have talked about a lot of these topics, both on air and off. So I appreciate you doing it on air for everybody.

Stephanie Pomboy 31:37
I’m sure we can record so I talked about this stuff.

Adam Taggart 31:41
Well, no. I mean, you’re I think it’s important for people to hear the topics on which you are so consistent, because it gives them confidence that, okay, the data is not changing in a way, despite what today’s headlines might be telling us. Right definitely is not seeing actual real data to convince her to change your mind. Right.

Stephanie Pomboy 31:59
All right, we talked about sorry, before we jumped on this, you and I were talking about how, you know, I feel like a broken record, because I’m pointing out stuff that seem, you know, I identify the dominoes lining up. And, you know, it takes a long time for that process to play out. And while that time is lapsing, I keep repeating and repeating and repeating. And then eventually it becomes clear that dominoes are starting to fall over. You know, so I sound like a broken record, just because I don’t know, I just, you know, I start looking at this stuff, probably way too early and say, you know, well, here’s a math problem. If you got twice as much debt, and you’re raising rates twice as fast, that’s probably not going to be good. But it does those lags that you talked about Adam laggard are frustrating because it means that, you know, I’m talking, I’m doing math, and it takes 12 months before that math becomes irrelevant. So, you know, I think that math is going to become irrelevant in a lot of ugly ways in the next few months. So there was a lot for us to cover here. And I thank you for taking all the time to do that.

Adam Taggart 33:03
Oh, no, my pleasure. And just to underscore that the value of you being the quote, unquote, broken record stuff is a year ago, you were hammering the table, about the vulnerability of of these corporations to the rise in their, their they owe the debt and the debt service costs. And, you know, honestly, folks didn’t listen for a long, long time. And now they finally are right. And so that’s just one example. Right? And I think folks should take validation from that, that like, hey, what’s the next thing that Stephanie or some other, you know, experts have been hammering on that suddenly, at some point, Wall Street’s gonna wake up to and say, oh, wait a minute, I guess this matters after all right?

Stephanie Pomboy 33:44
Well, it’s the same like with the Fitch downgrade, like, oh, my gosh, imagine that federal deficit financing is going to be impacted by higher debt service. I mean, imagine that. So I mean, it’s the same framework, and you can apply it to any sector and you know, pick what your poison is of the day.

Adam Taggart 34:01
Yeah. So for folks listening, I’m going to be actually hopefully meeting in person for the first time ever. Nick Gerli. Tomorrow, talking about housing, he’s out here.

Stephanie Pomboy 34:10
That’ll be interesting. Should

Adam Taggart 34:11
be fun. But housing is like another one stuff. We’re just like talking to people. Right now. I’m seeing all these articles about how, you know, housing. Zillow, I think says housing is going to be 5% Higher next year. And who knows, I don’t have a crystal ball. But I’m going to say unless the Fed changes policy really aggressively, really fast. The housing market is not going to be able to sustain mortgage rates at their current levels.

Stephanie Pomboy 34:35
Well, Adam, you know, I, we were saying I just had lunch with John Hathaway, a mutual friend of ours. When he showed me Zillow is offering a 1% down payment mortgage. So they are obviously talking their book when they talk about their first event in the housing market, if they’re if they’re gonna go out there and start lending to they want I think the head line was to tract, you know, lower quality borrowers or something like, yeah, now’s the time. Now’s the time to really get into that bottom of the barrel, please. Yeah.

Adam Taggart 35:11
So let’s set the 12 minute timer for the headline that says, you know, Zillow earnings disappoint street due to excessive losses and you know, low quality loans. Exactly. People take the over under on the 12 mindset. I’m sure the smart money is on the under. Alright, Steph? Well, look, thanks so much for all his great discussion, most important question, which is for folks that have really enjoyed this discussion with you and would like to follow you and your work, where should they go?

Stephanie Pomboy 35:38
Okay, well, they can follow me at on Twitter at s POM boy, or they can just go to my website, which is macro mavens.com, macro mavens.com. And that’s pretty much it. I don’t do a lot of anything other than those two things. Yes. Thank you so much, Adam. It was fun. There was a lot to catch up on.

Adam Taggart 36:00
There was thank you so much for coming on and doing this. All right. Well, now’s the time when the program will we bring in the lead partners from new harbor financial, one of the endorsed financial advisory firms by Wealthion, to react to the excellent discussion that we just had with Stephanie, as well as talk about the main major issues that the markets have been up to over the past week. I’m joined, as usual by Michael Preston and John loader. guys. Thanks so much for joining us. Mike. I think we started with you last week. So John, we’ll start with you this week. What were some of your key takeaways from this conversation with Stephanie, we covered a lot of territory?

John Llodra 36:34
Yes, Stephanie is always a treasure trove of observations and data, data observed observations. And, you know, she has unabashedly reaffirmed herself as being in a recession camp. We’re not economist by trade, but we certainly follow data. And many of the data points that she points to are ones that we have watched very closely. You’ve talked about it time and time, again, Adam laggard about the lag effect of many things going through the economy. And, you know, it is not, not a typical for these lags to take time to play out. Just looking at the interest rate increases over the last several months, both on the short end, but also in the long end, really haven’t flowed through to the economy yet. But we’re starting to see signs of that happening. You’ve shared a chart, for example, with the corporate debt issuance coming with maturity walls coming this year into next year. And these are big numbers. And basically, the stimulus both the monetary stimulus and the fiscal stimulus stimulus that have been undertaken over the last bunch of years have basically kick the can, basically borrowed from the future. Corporate margins were were padded, basically, by deficit spending, both by governments and transfers to households have stimulus. And that seems to be in the early stages of of running its course, we’ve seen consumer spending slowdown, as Stephanie points out rightly so that, for example, retail sales, if you actually look at real retail sales, adjusted for inflation, they’re not healthy at all, even if on a nominal basis. They look like they’re holding holding firm. We’re seeing households spending down savings borrowing, credit card debt and other other instruments at significantly higher interest rates today than then even just a year and a half ago. This is not a an economy that looks like it’s headed for a soft landing, like so many have willed into the notion over over the media over these last several days, months and weeks. We’re starting to see employment data that’s starting to fall into line with a not so healthy employment picture. Just yesterday, we got what’s called the jolts report, which is basically a report that the Fed watches pretty closely, and it reports on job openings. And basically the Fed wants to see the market have fewer job openings per per worker looking for work as a sign that the labor market is is is becoming less, less tight, basically, that the job openings numbers fell pretty pretty dramatically, relative to expectations, saw ADP employment coming out today. And some revisions down. All the say is that the the last kind of vestige of things hanging in there, the employment Pictures has been the most rosy of the kind of economic indicators that has been chugging along here. We’re starting to see some cracks there. And the big baffling thing come to us and Stephanie has shared her take on that, as well as that with a spike in interest rates that the stock market has been less affecting hasn’t been affected as much as it ordinarily would be, we think that’s not not a situation that will continue forever, we think actually, that will come come come to roost fairly, fairly soon over the next several quarters. But you know, what we’ll watch and observe. And in the meantime, we’ll we’ll be tactically inclined to, you know, in a very risk managed way, navigate these these transitional times.

Adam Taggart 40:37
All right, the data that you mentioned about the jobs market, particularly the jolts, this is beginning to start to close the alligator jaws that we’ve seen, in a lot of different charts, I was actually talking about this with Stephanie off air. She’s got a ton of charts, and some of her recent publications showing all these, these, her research report was called JAWS because of the these divergences that we’re seeing in so many different data points are starting to begin to converge again. And of course, with job openings, you know, back when Powell started his hiking and tightening campaign, I mean, a year and a half ago, he was talking about the historically high number of job openings for every job applicant out there, you know, as a sign of kind of an overheated jobs market. And he basically said, I am declaring war on the jobs market, I’m trying to close that differential, because the economy is running too hot, and inflation is, you know, gone wild. And, you know, one of the things I’m going to try to do is bring demand down. And that’s going to include demand for jobs. And of course, the jobs market has been incredibly resilient. In the midst of that. We go to Michael Kantrowitz is hope framework, you know, basically which predicts how we fall into recession as an economy. And this framework is called Hope. It’s an acronym H O, P, E, the E is employment. The previous H, O and P have gotten pretty shaky employment hadn’t until quite recently. And we’re now beginning to see that domino begin to wobble a bit. I’ll talk about our upcoming conference in a few minutes here. But Michael will get he’s going to be presenting at that conference, I’m really interested to hear what he’s going to have to say particularly because we’re starting to finally see weakness in that E. And one thing I just want to underscore, John, is, you made the joke about the lag effect there. So much of the economic indicators that get impacted by the lag effect. I think you got to think of them like an oil tanker, right, where the Fed says, Look, you know, I want to it this way that the Fed pursued a policy that basically led to this inflation that stimulated the economy and made you know, the jobs market, one of the most, you know, best quote unquote, jobs market we’ve had on record. And that has been pushing the economy all the way in one direction. Now, Powell has said, Look, I’m trying to get that to swing in the other direction. It’s taken him basically a year and a half to slow and then finally stop that momentum that that the stimulus was pushing it in. And we’re now just beginning to see that it’s just starting to turn direction, right. So what we can expect from here is that we’re going to have a prolonged swing of that oil tanker in the other direction. Now, it’s going to take a long time. And at some point there, the Feds probably going to say, okay, you know, I’m done tightening, you know, now, the jobs mark is getting more injured than I want. And we’re probably going to have a lot of overcorrection there. And I just want people to get that into their minds that that’s how these trajectories work. So we very well may be seeing here, just the final turning from one direction to start moving in the other direction here. And then this could be a very prolonged trend going forward from here. You’re nodding as I’m saying this jump if you want to add anything to that.

John Llodra 44:02
No, I think that’s exactly right. These things move slowly. And then all at once. It’s it’s that the problem is in the moment. The human psyche doesn’t can’t appreciate that. That’s why bubbles happen. That’s why things get, you know, caught off guard. But we can look back and see how these things play out. We, you know, us definitely talked about. If there is an eventual pivot by the Fed, that usually is too little too late. We can go back and study the most recent major pivots in the face of crises. And I think we she agrees with with us that there’s likely no scenario where the Fed starts to lower short term rates again, for fear of re inciting inflation prematurely, declaring the battle on inflation, complete prematurely. But usually when when the Fed does ultimately have to, feels it has to lower rates is because things are breaking and markets are Are freefall and that is usually very little comfort for a market that is concerned at that point, housing bust, tech bust, both situations that that was aggressively lower lowering short term rates, and very did very little to stem the massive selling that took markets down over 50% in both cases. So we have no doubt they’ll they’ll turn to that playbook again. But it probably will be in in response and perhaps even inciting a panic in the stock market at that time.

Adam Taggart 45:29
Okay. And of course, in the stock markets, convoluted logic, we had this sort of worrisome downward surprising data in the jobs market. And of course, that ignited, you know, a spike in the stock prices here. And that’s largely the market, you know, saying Hooray, because the jobs markets looking weak, that means that the Fed is probably likely closer to stopping its rate hike campaign and closer to eventually pivoting right. And so it’s trying to price all that in right now. Which is,

John Llodra 45:58
yeah, but even at that the probabilities are barely budged. And I can share a chart here of the Fed watch. G. Basically, it’s the federal funds. probability curve. Can you see that? That? Okay, yeah, we do. This is basically a time series. If you look at each one of these bars, this this kind of light bar here is the July 28. Reading. This is the August 23. Reading, this is the August 29. Reading and the leftmost bar is the current reading. And what it shows is the probability for what the market perceives the probability of the federal funds target rate likely to be at that meeting date. So the next meeting is the September fed, Federal Open Market Committee meeting, then the next one after that is November. So you can see the latest reading is, is inexpensive. So the current current target rate is five and a quarter to five, five and a half. So that’s where we are right now. And basically, it was a slight decrease in the probabilities market assumed probability in the September meeting, that the Fed would raise 25 basis points, point two 5%. So went from 14%, probability down to nine and a half went down. So the market precedes a lower probability, you know, not not a meaningfully lower profitability, but you go to the November meeting, and you have at the November meeting, the prior reading was a 42.2% probability on August 29. And now it’s 42.85%. So there’s still a pretty decent market implied probability that we’ll see another quarter point raise, and there’s very little, if we go out to March of next year, the probabilities of lowering down here are still not that great, they’re less than a third. So this idea of this, suddenly, the data is bad enough, the Feds gonna just suddenly turn on a dime here and start, you know, given the market more, more sugar doesn’t bear out in the data.

Adam Taggart 48:00
Right, right. Like I said, it’s just sort of this twisted logic that the market is still using. And of course, we’ve talked a lot too about I mean, even if the Fed were to pivot, soon, history shows you tend to have quarters of market declines following the initial pivot of the Fed. But of course, marketing and market is not taking into consideration right now. All right. Well, Mike, coming over to you here, anything that you want to add on to John’s commentary about Stephanie’s points there, and then love to talk with you about what the sort of twisted logic, you know, the markets are now using to rise here seems to be having a pretty good effect on the precious metals.

Mike Preston 48:41
Yeah, I think you guys covered everything, or most of what Stephanie talked about very well, I find the kind of the psychology of all of this fascinating, because what the Fed has really done in my opinion has, has honed in on people’s psychology and tried to create this wealth effect. And basically to try to create discomfort with not being in in it or not feeling that wealth effect. And so, you know, that said a lot of negative consequences. And humans definitely talked about natural human behavior, essentially saying nothing’s happened. So nothing’s likely going to happen. Yeah, I can admit that even. Even I feel that way. Sometimes this has been going on a heck of a long time. This bubble has gone on at extreme levels of valuations longer, really than any other bubble, or any other market in our lifetimes. And it really feels like this is a permanently high plateau. And people are getting tired, they’re getting tired of, you know, expecting something bad to happen, or they’re getting tired or being out of it. And so a lot of conversations are all about psychology. It’s a very, very psychological time that we’re living through. We choose to put our faith in data. We think the data absolutely matters. This last 10 or 15 years now of fed you know, kind of reckless intervention has created A lot of psychological stress for people. It’s you and Stephanie talked about, you know, the reckless speculation that was encouraged by this policy. A lot of zombie companies that exist that not that shouldn’t necessarily exist anymore. She talked about Silicon Valley Bank was basically a bank for zombie companies. And what happened when they went belly up, essentially, they were bailed out. And there was a little bit of grumbling here and there, I think amongst the public, but still, you know, the Fed got away with it. And so so so the Mo was to bail everything out from here, you know, until forever, but that’s probably not going to be doable at some point. In all this talk about the pivot in a soft landing or no landing, there’s going to be some pain before the ultimate pivot. I think we all agree on that. Nobody knows what the catalyst is going to be. That’s the hard part. I don’t know what the catalyst is going to be. But I’ve got no doubt that from these levels, the stock market provides negative returns annually over the next decade, with a high likelihood of a big drop of 50 to 70%. You know, given what the math says. So well, I guess we’ll get to in a little bit what Stephanie’s ultimate recommendations are, but let me respond to the the question on gold and silver that you just said. And I think I’d like to just share a chart talk about silver and gold, we’ve been watching the charts pretty closely. And if you take a look at a monthly chart of silver, or a weekly chart of silver, I’m just about to share it here. And that’s coming up as we speak, should be able to see it, here’s a monthly chart of silver, I’ll go to gold in just a second. Silver had it spike high 10 years ago, and this was a kind of a bubble top, if you will, and then a 10 year, actually 12 year consolidation now but Silver has been in this range, can basically creating a big triangle here. And let me see if I can just zoom in a little bit. You can see that this range has contained silver between around 22 and 30. But the last four or five months, we’ve been bouncing around this kind of this downtrend line, you know this is potentially a bullish triangle. This is a downtrend. If we get a sustained break above there, silver could and should go up into the 30s. Let’s take a quick look at gold here. Gold on a monthly chart also looks very good, it looks a little bit better. We’ve shown this chart many times it’s almost a snooze fest in that it’s been all of these years, 1234 years that gold has been putting in this range. And what many think is a triple top. The last few months it’s been consolidating, just like silver has its backup at 1972. On the futures if we get a break above 20 102,000 to 2100, we should very likely go higher towards 2500. The mining stocks have been underperforming still, it’s somewhat puzzling. Let’s take a look at GDX as a proxy. You know it, it too has had this consolidation. But it looks a lot sloppier on a monthly chart, we’ve had a nice bounce here recently, gold gets up into the 2000s looks to us like like mining stocks could play catch up and move up quite a bit. They often go through periods of underperformance relative to to actual bullion, that’s what’s happening right now, if more attention gets focused on the precious metals, that’s likely to be very positive. So we’re watching that closely. We have a position here, we haven’t hedged, at least 50% of its hedged, you know, but overall, I’ll just stop the share here. Overall, it’s been a test of patience being a gold and silver and precious metal mining investor. Heck, it’s been a test of patience, you know, calling question into this whole narrative that this, this market is at a permanently high plateau that this is somewhat of a fake system, or it is a fake system, the money system at this point, you really can’t tie it to anything, it really comes down to what a group of people say it’s going to be. So a lot of people don’t know what’s real, and it’s difficult, but gold and silver are real. And, you know, we would advocate for continuing to be patient in the group, five to 10% of investable assets. In bullion. We’ve got 10% in precious metal mining stocks in our model, and we think it will do very well. Other than that, it’s all about patience. You know, again, we’ll talk about what Stephanie said at the end of her interview, but it’s about patience and having some dry powder. And you know, the resist the psychological pressure to do something.

Adam Taggart 54:49
Okay. I want to get to another topic quickly about sort of trying patients. I’ve had a lot of people on the channel recently and I will I’d say pretty much all of them are, are on board with is a historically very attractive and sensible time to be invested in short term US Treasuries right now that the risk return that they offer right now is exceptionally good. And particularly if you’re not entirely confident in any particular investment thesis right now, you’re getting paid attractively to sit in safety and getting paid a real yield to certain safety, which hasn’t happened for a long time. As we’ve talked about in the past. There is a lot more disagreement cropping up now about the long end of the Treasury curve. We have people I’ll probably put someone like Lance Roberts is one of the other endorsed financial advisors on this channel. He and his partner Michael Liebowitz, they think that the feds hand is is definitely going to be forced here at some point in time to have to reverse policy and bring interest rates down probably pretty aggressively, especially if something breaks systematically under these this high cost of capital. And the Fed has to step into rescue things right. And of course, the logic is that we’ll then that decrease in yields will increase price in bonds. And that increases greatest at the furthest end of the Treasury yield curve. Probably on the other end of the spectrum, we have people like Luke Grohmann, who I just interviewed earlier this week, who was basically making a case largely sort of based in the what he believes to be a secularly higher price for oil now, and he thinks that any attempts by the Fed to stimulate the economy by cutting rates is just going to raise the price of oil. And essentially, that dynamic will end up keeping yields high in bonds. And so he’s basically saying I would not be going long on the Treasury curve right now. You then and people in the middle, I just interviewed chance. Manoukian, who’s the Chief Investment Officer at Oxbow advisory works with Ted Oakley, who’s been on this channel, where they have a position I think they said maybe it’s like 10% of their bond part of their bond holdings that they put in the long end of the curve to to ride you sort of Lance’s scenario, if indeed it occurs. But they’re not planning to to aggressively add to that going forward. I know you guys that new harbor do have some positions in the long end and TLT. I know you have a lot of short term treasuries right now. What is your position about the long term Treasury opportunity right now? Is that something that you’re still playing for? And I think as I said, I think you do have a position in TLT. But give us an update on that. Is that something you plan to add to going forward?

John Llodra 57:50
I can chime in there on that. Yes, we do still have a position in TLT. And here’s here’s a little beef that that all articulate. When we talk about positions, it’s really important to understand in the context of overall portfolio, you know, we’re managing a comprehensive portfolio for clients. We’re not just by narrowly turning on or off a position in, in long term treasuries. So we’ve we’ve held a position in long term treasuries, we certainly didn’t buy at the top, we didn’t buy at the bottom, that’s for sure, as our clients know. But we have had hedges in place on that on that position, our notional position, when we established it, in recent months, and over the last couple of, you know, a year and a half or so was about 15% allocation, certainly not a dramatically large allocation, especially because we think the short term treasuries were were such a compelling place to be on the on the short end, for risk, risk adjusted return. But we saw an increasingly attractive situation with long term bonds, not to say that they couldn’t have gone down and they did. But we had hedges in place there. So effectively what happened in this recent sell off in longer term bonds. We’ve had a little bit of a bounce since the recent near term bottom, our hedges basically took about half of that position off the table, okay, effectively selling at a much higher price. And we’re comfortable with that right now. So roughly about a notional seven and a half percent position in the longer term treasuries given the spectrum of of scenarios here, especially one that may invite a recessionary type of phase here. That’s a great place to be a recession if you go back and study recessions, long term treasuries. Now, we’re not 50% in those long term treasuries, because there still is a whole spectrum of of risks that can play out there, including bond vigilantes, and And, you know, we have some some major tensions on the on the global stage in terms of monetary policy. And, you know, basically, we’ve talked about what Japan is doing with the yield curve control. So it’s, it’s absolutely not a no brainer. But we think for a modest allocation to a client portfolios, a very good risk reward, trade, one that we feel very confident and comfortable holding. And we would not be surprised to see those those yields come off our our horizon for this trade is probably hands, you know, several months to a couple of years, we are not looking at this as an opportunity to go out and load up on long term treasuries and think it’s going to be the place to be for the next 1020 3040 years is a passive investment. Absolutely not. And one need only look at the history of 10 year treasury yields over the last four years, we basically have come off four years of pretty much nothing but declining 10 year treasury yields. We absolutely are not under no disillusion that that kind of tailwind is likely to be in place for the coming years. We think there could be a rally here, especially if we get a recession. But the longer term picture is pretty pretty challenged, we think for longer term bonds were much more constructive about commodities, resources, real assets as a way to navigate the next decade or more. But that’s our take right now. And, Mike, I’m sure you can add some perspective there as well.

Mike Preston 1:01:40
Yeah, I really don’t have anything to add. I think you covered it. Well, thanks.

Adam Taggart 1:01:43
Okay, good. Well, folks, we’ll end it there. Just in wrapping up, I want to remind folks that Mike and John will be joining me all day at the Wealthion fall conference that’s coming up on Saturday, October 21. If you haven’t registered for it yet, I highly recommend you go do so. Now, basically, to lock in the early bird price discount, it’s almost 30% off the full price. And if you’re an alumnus of one of our previous conferences, you’ll get an additional 15% discount on top of that. And to get that check your email, you should have gotten an email from me with a code to use for that. Just as a reminder for folks of the lineup for the event. It’s our strongest lineup of faculty we’ve ever had. And that’s really saying something. Lacey hunt, we’ll kick things off with his keynote talking about, you know, overall macro, his overall macro outlook plus his thoughts on what the Fed policy going forward is likely to be. We’ll have James Grant godfather of interest rates telling us where he thinks interest rates are going to be headed. We’re gonna have Michael Kantrowitz, as I mentioned, there, he’ll be talking about the the full spectrum of his macro outlook through that lens of the hope framework, but we’re going to do a deep dive on the E part of it since it’s so critical. Stephanie Pomeroy will be there. She’ll be giving us an update on where she sees things on the inflation deflation side heading into 2024. Kyle bass will be there. He’ll be talking about the biggest geopolitical risks. He thinks they’re likely to impact markets next year and how they’re going to impact them. We’ll have IV sorry, IV Zelman, talking about the housing market. She’ll be joined by after she presents, we’re going to have a live q&a Plus deconstruction of what IV presented with Nick Gerli and Amy Nixon to the housing analysts that appear on this channel quite frequently. We’re gonna have Michael Leibowitz there giving us the latest update on bonds. We’ll have Rick Rule sharing his top picks in natural resource and commodity stocks. We’ll have Duisburg, they’re talking about the global energy outlook, he’ll be joined by Justin Hewan. And they’re going to do a deep dive into the opportunities to invest in nuclear energy. Of course, we’re going to have our advisors like Mike and John and Lance and Jonathan, welcome. From up in Canada, we’ve got one or two other speakers that have yet to be announced. But as you can tell, it’s going to be a phenomenal opportunity to go secure your seat for it, get those early bird price discounts and the alumni discount on top of that, just go to wealthion.com/conference. And as we always do in these week after week in these videos, for everything that Stephanie and I talked about, and then what Mike and John and I picked up here, we highly recommend that most viewers of this channel work under the guidance of a good professional financial advisor who can help build a personalized portfolio plan for you take into account all of the issues that Stephanie mentioned in this hour and 40 minute interview with her. If you’ve got one who’s doing that for you and executing it for you while keeping you well informed, great stick with them. They’re incredibly rare, but if you don’t, or if you’d like a second opinion from when he does, maybe even join in Mike and their team, their new harbor, and consider scheduling a free consultation with one of the financial advisors that Wealthion endorses to do that. Just go to wealthion.com Fill out the Short form there, these consultations totally free, they don’t cost you anything. There’s no commitment to work with these guys. It’s just a free public service they offer to help as many people position as prudently as possible in advance of the many things that Stephanie thinks might be headed forward. From here. Mike, I’m gonna let you have the last word here as we, as we say goodbye to folks from this week’s video.

Mike Preston 1:05:22
Well, thanks, everyone for watching. Thanks for tuning in. I know that a lot of the message that we say is very consistent, and maybe even boring. Sometimes. It’s about being careful, being patient, having cash, having gold and silver. But that continues to be the right message. I think that’s essentially what Stephanie said at the end of her talk, you know, is, essentially, it’s hard to beat treasury bills, it’s true, you can get five to five and a half percent. On your short short term money. 40% of our model is in treasury bills. She likes gold and impatient. So I know what’s a consistent message. It’s very difficult. It’s very psychological. Talk to us if you’d like. We’re happy to have conversations with anybody. And a lot of those conversations is psychological. And I think we’ve got some unique insight and experience there. So thanks again. And I’ll see you next week.

Adam Taggart 1:06:14
All right. Thanks, Mike. And for everybody watching. If you’d like to see Stephanie, come back on this program again soon. And also just want to vote your general support for John and Mike and their weekly appearances here. It’s such a public service they offer keeping us well grounded, please vote your support for both of those by hitting the like button, then clicking on the red subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. And John and Mike, guys, thanks again for another great week. Everyone else. Thanks so much for watching.

John Llodra 1:06:41
Thank you, Adam. Bye for now.

Mike Preston 1:06:42
Goodbye. Thank you.

Adam Taggart 1:06:45
If you’d like to schedule a consultation with one of the financial advisors at new harbor financial simply go to wealthion.com. These consultations are completely free, and there are no strings attached. The good folks at new harbor was simply answer any questions you have about your investment goals or your portfolio and give you their best advice given their latest market outlook. They’re willing to do this because they care about protecting people’s wealth. And because Wealthion has connected them with so many thoughtful investors just like you over the past decade. We started doing this because so many people have approached us in frustration looking for a solution because they’re feeling out of alignment, or downright ridiculed by the standard financial advisors who have been managing their money. You know, the type, the kind that just pushes all of your money into the market. scoffs at the idea of owning gold. And when you bring up concerns about the market sky high valuations, they say don’t worry, the market will always take care of you. For many of the reasons discussed in today’s video, we think this is one of the most challenging and treacherous times in history for investing. We strongly believe that today’s investors are best served working in partnership with a conscientious professional financial advisor who understands the risks in play. Now we’re agnostic, which professional advisor you’ll work with, as long as they’re good. If you’re already working with one, that’s fantastic, stick with them. But if you don’t, or are having trouble finding one you respect or trust, then consider talking to John and Mike and the team at new harbor. For those about to ask yes, there’s a business relationship between Wealthion and new harbor, which we’ve put in place to make sure everything is handled according to SEC regulations. All the details on this are clearly provided on the wealthion.com website. Also, it’s important to note that new harbor is able to work with US citizens, green card holders, and those with existing assets in the USA, but for regulatory reasons they aren’t able to take on non US clients. All right, with all that said, if you’d like some insight and guidance on how to protect your wealth during this unprecedented time in the markets, go to wealthion.com to schedule your free consultation with the good folks at new harbor. Thanks for watching.