On Thursday, September 11, financial markets will be closely watching a trio of key economic data releases that will provide new insights into the state of the U.S. economy and could influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
The most anticipated release is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August. This inflation gauge is a critical determinant for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. Economists and market analysts are predicting that the headline CPI will have a monthly increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, which would be an acceleration from July’s 2.7% annual rate. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is often seen as a better indicator of underlying inflation trends, is also expected to have a monthly rise of 0.3%, keeping its annual rate steady at 3.1%. The composition of the core CPI will be a focal point, as investors will be looking to see if inflation pressures are broadening across the services sector.
In addition to inflation data, the Department of Labor will release its weekly report on jobless claims. This report provides a timely snapshot of the health of the labor market. Last week’s report showed a rise in initial claims to 237,000, and analysts are anticipating a similar figure for the week ending September 6th. While the labor market has shown signs of softening, as indicated by a recent rise in the unemployment rate, a consistent trend of elevated jobless claims would reinforce the narrative that the jobs market is cooling.
Finally, the U.S. Treasury Department is set to release the Monthly Treasury Statement, which details the federal budget balance for August. While there are no specific public forecasts for this month’s data, the long-term trend has been a widening deficit. The federal government’s year-to-date spending has already reached nearly $6 trillion in fiscal year 2025, and the rolling 12-month deficit has been holding at around $1.9 trillion. An unexpected change in this trajectory, either positive or negative, would likely affect markets.
