Renowned economist David Rosenberg joins Anthony Scaramucci to reveal the biggest market and economic risks of 2025—from Trump’s tariffs and the AI stock bubble to the looming U.S. debt crisis and shifting investment strategies.
Key Topics Covered:
- AI bubble — is this the next Dot-Com crash?
- Trump’s tariffs & trade war — will they trigger a recession?
- U.S. debt crisis & fiscal policy — when will markets react?
- Gold’s surge — could we see $3,000+ per ounce?
- The 60/40 portfolio is broken — what’s the best strategy now?
- Hedge funds & alternative assets — where are the smart investors moving their money?
Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4hlxuEu
David Rosenberg 0:00
I’m the superstitious type, and it’s the year of the wooden snake. And the wooden snake happens only every 60 years, and that’s the way that I would describe what’s going to happen this year, which is going to be a year of, I think, unremitten volatility. And that’s all we’ve seen. We’ve seen volatility across all asset classes.
Anthony Scaramucci 0:30
Welcome to speak up on the wealthy on network, I am your host, Anthony Scaramucci, and joining me today is a fan favorite, a three peat. I think it could be a 4p David Rosenberg. David is the founder and president of Rosenberg research, and as many of you know, it’s a it’s a economic consulting firm. But more than anything, David has a pulse several decade four, four decade plus pulse on the markets. What’s going right in the economy, what’s going wrong? What stocks we should be looking at? So David, thanks again for joining us. We always love having you on. Let’s get right into it, if you don’t mind, sure. How did we start the year, sir, the first month of the year is about to end. Are things going as expected? Well?
David Rosenberg 1:18
You know, we published our year ahead outlook, which was all about heightened and elevated uncertainty for the year, of course, generated principally by your good friend Donald Trump, and couched it in the term, in the terms of the Chinese zodiac, because I’m the superstitious type, and it’s the year of the wooden snake. And the wooden snake happens only every 60 years, and that’s the way that I would describe what’s going to happen this year, which is going to be a year of, I think, unremitting volatility. And that’s all we’ve seen. We’ve seen volatility across all asset classes. And you know, deep seek has added more uncertainty and volatility into what people thought was a sure thing, which is this generative AI trade, but I think, generally speaking, the roller coaster ride. And of course, you could argue, well, the stock markets ended January in pretty good shape, but it has been a meat grinder of a market, and it’s been extremely volatile. I would expect that volatility to continue up until we get clarity on what trade policy is going to look like. I guess we’ll find out very soon about 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but we’re not going to know to the back half of the year about fiscal policy, and that is the elephant in the room, especially in terms of what it means for the Fed and what it means for the Treasury market interest rates, and then back to what it could mean for the stock market in terms of multiple contractions, so on and so forth. So, yeah, call it a UV uncertainty, volatility. That’s what we have in store, and that’s what January was all about.
Anthony Scaramucci 3:13
So, so let, let’s go to the towers for a second. Because I’m, you know, I’m a trained economist. I’ve been studying markets for 37 years. And I honestly don’t know the answer to this question, so maybe you can answer it for me. We have two of our closest allies that are in the western hemisphere with us. They’re actually both on the North American continent. That would be Mexico and Canada. Tell me the benefit of imposing long standing allies. We don’t have military on either of those borders, unlike China, Russia, etc, and the imposition of 25% tariffs on these countries. Tell me the economic benefit of the United States or the strategic benefit? Well,
David Rosenberg 3:58
I don’t know. Well, firstly, I think that, you know, Donald Trump wants to impose tariffs globally, and that is to, you know, bring into the United States foreign investment. It’s a great way to entice companies to avoid the tariff by setting up shop in the US, creating jobs. But in looking at, let’s say Canada, for example, which is i i live and I work in Toronto. When you’re taking a look at what globalization did to Canada, and you look at industrial production, manufacturing employment and output, it’s far, far worse in Canada than is in the United States, Canada got gutted by globalization more than the US did. I look at Canada, you know, Canada has a an effective tariff rate of 1.7% it’s two and a half percent in the United States. Canada is not, you know, you know, Donald Trump points to. Canada’s bilateral trade surplus. But that whole trade surplus is in metals and minerals and energy and wood products, the stuff that America needs. It’s all basically that surplus is all basic material, which is, Canada is the home of, you know, rocks and trees, and there is no trade imbalance whatsoever. And everything else, Canada is a huge buyer of a lot of the manufacturing stuff that the US makes. So it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. People say to me, Well, how else is going to pay for the tax cuts he needs the tariff revenue? It’s just too small. It all just doesn’t really make any sense. I don’t know if this is a message to China, which is that, look, look, what we’re going to do to our friends, and you’re next and you’re not our friend. None of it makes sense to me. You know, I saw, I saw, you know, I think it was lupnic who told Congress that, when he was asked about it, that Canada should respect the United States. Well, I don’t know. I watched the Montreal Canadians play, you know, the Minnesota Wild and a hockey game last night at Montreal. They did play the US National Anthem, you know. So I don’t know where the disrespect comes from. This view that Canada is that we’re a big problem for fentanyl, when 1% of the fentanyl illegal coming through the US comes across the Canadian border. 1% the that is a bigger problem with Mexico, and, of course, enormous problem with China. How Canada gets tarrent and feathered over fentanyl is like when 1% it’s not zero. That much is true. But you know, 90% of the illegal firearms in Canada come north from the United States. I don’t see Canada saying, Well, we’re going to slap on a big tariff on you. It’s basically, I don’t know, is this all Trump, with his big, bold initiatives and the disruptor, why he’s coming after Canada and Mexico and especially Canada, at least, you know, we can talk about Canada. Remember Canada and the US had a free trade agreement in the in the late 80s, before Mexico showed up to the table Canada and the United States is we speak the same language. We have the same values, you know? We We basically all come from the British Empire. We have so much in common. It’s and Canadians, I gotta tell you, they are just mystified. There’s no benefit to the US economy whatsoever from these tariffs. And I’ll just tell you that the risk is that he will plunge the US into a recession, because I’m not so sure, despite all the smart people that he has. I mean, Besant, for example, how they don’t understand that basically, 50% of the US automotive sector is reliant on the whole North American supply chain. 50% 50% think of what’s going to happen with these blanket tariffs if they come to fruition, to the manufacturing sector, it’s going to be utter chaos. Think of think of the fact that at least a third of the of the of softward lumber for the US housing market comes from Canada, mostly British Columbia. Think of the impact that’s going to have on the whole building industry. Building Industry. So, you know, Donald Trump’s going to roll the dice, and I don’t know how Canada is going to respond, but this is going to create absolute chaos with the North American supply chain, and it’s going to drive production and investment down, Canada and the United States will get crushed. The US economy, being a large, large, closed economy, won’t be crushed. But let me tell you something this is the big risk for the US economy, is that these tariffs, through the disruption of the supply chain and manufacturing, is finally going to cause the recession in the United States. It might be a mild recession. It’ll be a recession. People don’t see it. And the problem is that everybody is so ingrained to believing that the business cycles been repealed. This is actually a very big deal, and I don’t find that despite and some of these people in this cabinet, you know the they’re very smart, but they’re smart, but it seems to be ideological and very protectionist in nature. They seem to think these tariffs will cause an inflow of investment in the United States. Before that ever happens, there’s going to be a massive disruption to the supply chains and manufacturing, and that’s going to have all sorts of spin off effects. So, you know, I think it’s a it’s an unnecessary gamble that the Trump administration is taking on.
Andrew Brill 9:48
Thanks so much for watching our discussion here on wealthy. Um, if you would like help with your wealth efforts, please head over to wealthy, um.com/free, for free, portfolio review. Well,
Anthony Scaramucci 9:58
I mean, I hope you’re my. Me letting you go like that, because I, you know, I agree with everything you’re saying, and I want you to expound upon it, but I I just have a follow up question. Then we’ll go, we’ll go to more macroeconomic stuff. But you and I are both students of the markets. We’re students of human behavior, which is also being part of the market. I guess, in the first grade, I read The emperor has no clothes. And it was a story, of course, about the Emperors walking around naked, and everybody was telling him how beautifully wardrobed He is. These guys know better. Percent knows better. LUT Nick knows better. Maybe Peter Navarro doesn’t know better. But Make, make the case for me, for Donald Trump for a moment. Let’s be Donald Trump. You and I. What is he thinking? Because those guys are not going to tell him what David Rosenberg just said to the wealthion network. What? What is he thinking? What is Donald Trump? What’s the pushback on your or my argument or history’s argument about these tariffs? Go ahead. Be Donald Trump channel. Donald Trump for a second. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. What is he thinking? Look, there’s,
David Rosenberg 11:07
I’m going to separate Mexico and Canada here, if you don’t mind, because I think the Mexican border has always been a problem. I don’t remember seeing that the Canadian border was some sort of big problem. It just came out of nowhere. I don’t know. I think that people were telling me that he did not get along at all with Justin Trudeau, and this was a way of trying to get rid of Justin Trudeau, or impairing Justin Trudeau political future. And of course, Justin Trudeau and his entourage go, you know, on hand and knee to mar a Lago. And it was rather embarrassing. And Trump ends up calling him Governor Trudeau, the 51st state. I mean, I could throw the question back to you, why would he call Justin Trudeau, Governor Trudeau? No, I’m no big Justin Trudeau fan, but he’s Prime Minister. So I would ask you, I can ask you the question, you know Donald Trump, personally, I don’t. I know people that know him. You actually know him. What would be his motivation to call Justin Trudeau, Governor Trudeau? And I think that, but the reality is that
Anthony Scaramucci 12:26
he’s a very good looking guy. Trudeau, Trump is an old, insecure guy, fairly gelatinous. Trudeau gets a lot of attention for his looks as his demeanor. I’m not talking about his politics. I’m just telling you what Trump thinks. And so for Trump to embarrass him, or Trump to find a way to excoriate him or demean him, is the viciousness that Donald Trump represents. He’ll, he will do that to Pete hex, death. Eventually, he will do that to JD Vance. He won’t be able to help himself. So he’ll, he’ll eat his own but, but going after Trudeau was an easy thing for him to do.
David Rosenberg 13:04
Well, let me say something that. Well, people were telling me that, but Trudeau is East history, and now there’s a leadership race in the Liberal Party. So that problem has been solved, and he’s still saber rattling about 25% tariffs, which would decimate the Canadian economy, is this? Is this a way to weaken the Canadian economy so much that he would actually want to include Canada as part of the United States? Would we be part of the Louisiana Purchase or Alaska? So look what he’s doing the Panama Canal, Greenland and what makes especially Greenland so attractive, beyond just the shipping routes, is the vast critical minerals that the US needs. What does Canada have? Canada has critical minerals. It has oil and gas. You know, it could well be that he’s got some master plan that I will do my best to destroy the Canadian economy. Have them go down and bend a knee, and then at some point, we’ll renegotiate something where the US will have more dominance over Canada. It sounds rather Machiavellian and but, you know, we’re dealing with, you know, I mean, something that is much different. This is Trump 1.0 on steroids. He put on tariffs selectively, as we saw, selective countries, selective industries. This would be a blanket 25% tariff. It would create a recession in Canada, of the likes that we had in the early 80s and early 90s. And so maybe there’s some in his mind, some political benefit towards that weakening Canada so much that it’ll increase his bargaining power. Because it looks as though, look, I’ve got you’ve got friends in the Republican Party, so do i THE. And a recent dinner, a few of them told me that in Trump 1.0 the mantra was, take him seriously, but not literally. And now they tell me the mantra within his own team is take him both literally and seriously. So you know, maybe this is step one of American takeover of Canada. You know, is it? It’s not impossible. I’m not really sure. Or maybe, basically, he just does not like Canada. I could tell you why. One personal reason why he wouldn’t like Canada was about 10 years ago he opened up the Trump Hotel. Now I we never know how much of these properties he actually has any money in. He seems to always emerge on scaths When there’s a foreclosure. You notice that in his history, right? I don’t think I’m wrong on that. You can correct me. Other Other people might get hurt, but not him and the Trump Hotel in Toronto. I don’t know if you, if you were ever there. I was at the corner of Adelaide and Bay. Nobody went to it, despite the luxurious Trump Hotel. People avoided it, and ultimately they had to change the name. It’s now this. Now I think it’s called the saint Regis, uh and they had a grand opening for the Trump Hotel. Nobody, nobody really came. You know, the thing is that Donald Trump is very popular in the United States. And I mean, maybe outside of California and New York State, in Canada, Trump is not at all popular. I think that might bother him. I think what happened with this hotel in Toronto, considering that he takes things so personally that might bother him, the bottom line is that Canada is America’s best friend, but I think he hates Canada emotionally, so this might be one way to get back at us. We so that that comes to mind, you had to yet to be here to see it, that the Trump hotel that at peak season would have like a 40% occupancy rate. So think of how you would feel about and Toronto is really the financial and and when it comes to arts and theater and politics and business, it’s the financial center. It’s an embarrassment. So maybe, you know, the thing is that that could be on his mind too.
Anthony Scaramucci 17:33
All right, well, I’m, I’m going to go to questions in the audience in a second, but before I go, there you, you said something in one of your newsletters that struck me, and I’m going to paraphrase it, but you more or less said that you may have underestimated the impact of AI Artificial Intelligence and the overall market resilience. And so yes, we both agree that the business cycle is not over. We both know that it isn’t because it’s just not we know that, but what’s going on in the market that surprised you based on your four decades of plus of experience? Look,
David Rosenberg 18:10
I wrote this piece, and I’m glad you read it, called lament of a bear. I’m glad you read it, because most people just skimmed it, and they had this ridiculous idea that I threw in the towel when I specifically say in the report I’m not throwing the towel. It’s in a, it’s a, it’s a, it’s a self accounting and introspection as to why did I get the call wrong on the US stock market. I think we should all do that. It’s a cleansing experience. I could have written this in 1998 or 99 okay with the internet, when I saw a bubble forming, and I got out of the stock market too early, but I didn’t participate in the implosion that much, I can tell you, because I have a history of keeping people out of trouble. But the price you pay is that you’re not going to make a killing as the bull market morphs into a mania and then a bubble. So what I said was we, we had an inflection point in the innovation curve in late 2022 it’s actually PT, and then these Nvidia and the generative AI chips, and it was a big deal. I just underestimate. I what I underestimated, what I underestimated was the investor response to the shift in the innovation curve, and when we go and take a look, for example. So what I said was that it looks as though, and this happens when you get a shift in the technology curve. It’s not unusual that investors will lengthen their time horizons, and this is exactly what happened with the Internet. So call. There’s some people that believe that actually chat GPT and all the stuff happening with AI and all the spin offs is bigger than the internet. I’m not. Quite there. The Internet, to me, was like electricity. It was like, however, just like back in the late 1990s what happened was that you see at the time of Nvidia and chat GPT, and it was all like late 2002 early 220 23 the embedded five year earnings growth rate in the SB 100 was just under 10% the historical norm over five year cycles, averaging out the smooth earnings growth in the S P is seven, 8% so what did I miss? I missed the fact that investors would take their five year earnings estimates embedded in the valuations, in terms of what they anticipate earnings growth to be in the next half decade, to 20% 20% the embedded valuations, the earnings estimates for the next half decade doubled, doubled and is running three times what the historical norm is. And that’s exactly what happened. I did not anticipate that, not just for this year, but for the next five years, the markets would say that this is such a massive productivity game changer and will impinge the Corporate cost curve to such an extent that we’re going to have five years of earnings growth or about triple the historical norm. So that’s what I tell people. There’s people that say to me, 20% I think it’s so big, it’s so big, it’s going to be 30% per year, to which I say, well, to you at the stock market must be cheap. To me, it’s rich. But that’s what happened. It’s not that I missed I had an eight I had a I wrote about AI last year. I had aI panels. It’s not like, oh, Rosenberg missed the AI. You’re telling us, no, I missed the extreme investor emotion of greed, there’s greed and there’s fear, the two primal emotions in the market. And we saw this with the internet, and the internet changed our lives, and the Internet radically improved productivity, and all that was happening from the winter of 2000 to the spring of 2023 and the Nasdaq still went down 80% all this stuff was happening, and it’s because the markets are not GDP. The markets are animal spirits. Animal spirits, the term coined by John Maynard Keynes, I really missed, I missed the extent of the animal spirits driving the market higher. That was the story for me and for Mr. Market in 2024 and that’s what prompted me to write that report. So
Anthony Scaramucci 22:51
I want to go to I want to go to questions, but I hope you don’t mind me bringing all that up, because I think it’s a I think your research to me, I always learn something from your research. It makes me a better investor. And I always tell people, it’s not the things that we think we know with great certainty that don’t get us in trouble. They do. I thought Lehman Brothers was going to the moon. I was long it. It went bankrupt. But if you had asked me, I would have said with great certainty, it was a healthy and good company. So so we have, we always have to have the counter to what we’re thinking. Let, let. Let’s take some questions, sir. Debt levels, if debt levels keep rising at the current pace, you foresee a sovereign debt crisis in the US or other developed economies. This is Douglas from New York.
David Rosenberg 23:43
Well, let’s deal with the US. Because, I mean, we could talk globally, but you know, much of core Europe, especially France, we know the UK, but I mean, the really big deal is the US, the US drives the bus in the global economy. And it’s not so much the debt bomb, it’s the debt servicing bomb. That’s the problem. And I have to admit that I am disappointed. Well, look, we’ll give a time. There’s 38 Freedom Caucus members, and we’ll know in due course whether or not they’re yes men or whether or not they truly are fiscal conservatives. You’d be amazed to see what happened with Barack Obama, once the what we call the Tea Party back then, once they took over the reins, under Barack Obama, we had a dramatic multi year decline in the deficit GDP ratio that nobody thought would ever happen with a quasi socialist in the White House, but Congress, that’s where the bills get passed and. But you would not have believed that you could have had the US government go into surplus the late 1990s but we’re not going to thank Bill Clinton for that. Maybe Bob Rubin, we could give some thanks, but it was really Newt Gingrich, Congress matters. Congress matters more than the President. It’s a matter of, does the Congress stand up to the president, or are they all yes men. When it comes to fiscal policy, we are in a different kettle of fish now than we were with Trump 1.0 Trump 1.0 the deficit was 3% of GDP now for three years in a row, it’s going to be over 6% of GDP, the debt to GDP ratio under Trump 1.0 was 100% as if that’s good, now it’s 130% and the biggest difference is that when Trump took over in 2016 the what I call the government interest coverage ratio, how much are interest charges absorbing out of the revenue pie? Well, that was 8% pretty benign, and now it’s flirting with 20% so it’s like what you look at as an analyst looking at a corporate balance sheet and income statement, what’s happening with interest charges in relations to your revenues? It’s going up perniciously, because the debt is going up, but also interest rates are just staying where they are. They don’t seem like they’re coming down. At least the Fed’s not cutting them on a near term basis. They experience in other countries. And they’ll take, I’m not going to take banana republics. We’re going to take once again, Canada. You know, a modern, developed country almost defaulted back in the early 1990s and can you imagine that at that point, a g7 country defaulting came very close. Canada came within a whisker of a failed auction in 1993 I don’t think a lot of people know that. If it happened in the United States, the whole who would be front page news. When that ratio crosses 25% on its way to 30 when that debt service ratio gets into that 25 to 30% range, what happens is that the deficit becomes structural and intractable, and that’s when investors really wake up to default risk. So we’re not there yet. If left unchecked, however, we’ll be talking about this before Trump’s term ends, so in the next four years. So it’s not just the debt bomb. You can have a debt bomb like in Japan, but when rates are close to zero, your capacity to service that debt is reasonable. We don’t have that situation in the United States, the debt service ratio is going up inexorably, and there’s no attempt to to curb the debt, and now the Fed is not playing ball. Maybe, you know, Jay Powell has got one year left in his term, and we’ll see what Trump does with the next chairperson who will play ball. But remember, it’s the entire Treasury curve, not just the Fed funds rate. The Fed does not control the whole curve. It’s complicated, but I think it’s a great question. But what I would say, if you’re gonna ask me, what the one metric to pay attention to is the debt service ratio, and the day, the day it hits 25% I’ll become even more vocal on this in my daily
Anthony Scaramucci 28:36
amen. Let’s go to the next question. Gold is back. It’s back, or near all time highs. David, what’s your outlook for this precious metal? It’s Maria from Florida.
David Rosenberg 28:47
You know it gold? Well, firstly, I’m very bullish on gold. I’ve been bullish on gold for years. We We put out a special report a year ago, uh, saying gold was going to, it was going to get to $3,000 I mean, we’re almost there, and once we get there, I’ll reevaluate. I still think there’s upside. I am most impressed that gold has done this with this ripping bull market in the US dollar, because, remember, the gold is priced in US dollars, it means that gold is hitting even bigger highs against all the other major currencies in the world. And that’s a big story. That’s a big story, because when gold is going up in every currency terms, including the greenback, it’s telling you something important, which is that gold is no longer trading as a commodity. It’s trading as a currency, trading as a currency that is no government’s liability. So you can say the same thing to me about Bitcoin. I’m not, I don’t own Bitcoin. I’ve not been advocating it because I’m a conservative individual. And go and be to me, Bitcoin is more correlated with an. NASDAQ 100 than it is really with hard assets. It’s a it’s a hard asset currency, but it trades like the NASDAQ 100 it’s gold with 20 times the volatility. And there’s only so much volatility I’m willing to stomach. I’m not 20 years old anymore, so gold, I think, is going to do very well. Imagine what it does if the US dollar ever cracks, if gold can get to where it is with a bull market in the US dollar. But I think it’s a it’s a great look, as I say this, including Treasury securities, other safe assets to have as a hedge on your risk, on portfolio as a ballast. I like gold. I think that at some point the US dollar bull market will break. At some point the Fed will start cutting rates again. I think in the second half of the year, they’ll be cutting rates pretty hard, and the dollar will end up coming down. At that point, the tariff file hopefully will be behind us. That’s one of the things propping up the US dollar. Just imagine if the US dollar goes down, where gold’s going to go, yeah, so I’m, I’m very bullish on bullying, you know, you know it’s and, and the gold miners, by the way, the gold miners, which have lagged woefully behind, you know, you know, Warren Buffett is sitting on, you know what? 320, $5 billion in cash the world’s value investor can find value, but I agree that there’s not a lot of place around the world you can find value. Low mining stocks, way under price relative to the price of gold right now. So something to put on your radar screen? Well,
Anthony Scaramucci 31:40
I appreciate you bringing it up. That’s why we love having you on and you look 20 to me, although, although I’m not 20, but you do look 20
David Rosenberg 31:49
to me. I’m gonna, I’m gonna give you the number to my my ophthalmologist. Okay, maybe
Anthony Scaramucci 31:53
I need, maybe I need glasses. But let’s go to the next question. David, 6040 portfolio is the 6040 portfolio still viable? And if not, what is the recommended alternative? This is Martin from Florida.
David Rosenberg 32:10
Well, you know it’s, it’s, I have an abandon it. However, it is losing its allure to a whole lot of people. And it’s not even, I don’t call it 6040 I always call the 6030 10, because, you know, cash is paying you four and a half percent. So you know you’re getting paid to be in cash right now, I think that we’ll look back. You know, 2022 we had a cyclical bear market in equities. The bond market was behaving bad because of inflation, but you couldn’t be in cash because it was zero. What if we have another 2022 now you’re getting four and a half percent. I think four and a half we’ll look back. You know, Anthony asked me about 2025 I think look at 2025 if you bagged four to 5% this year, you’re going to be very happy investor, and cash with no duration risk and no capital risk is giving that to you. So I would say, firstly, 6040 let’s say 6030 10, and then within that, I don’t know, like, how do you treat? Let’s say you’re investing in a hedge fund. So the hedge fund is going to be, what is it? The hedge fund could be net short, or it could be net long. I think that I’d want to be in a in an actively managed hedge fund that isn’t market neutral, that can actually short the market. How do you treat that? How do you treat the 60 you see? How do you treat the 60 in that 6040, or 6030, 10. How do you treat that? If an equity hedge fund is in there and it goes net short, so all of a sudden it’s not 60, it’s 50. And actually, I would advise people out there to seek out non market neutral equity hedge funds that can actually short the market when it’s a certain skill to do that. But in that sense, I guess I’m answering my own question, which is that I think you want to take a more sort of eclectic and broader approach towards 6040 6030 10. And I’ve always said that, but I haven’t abandoned it totally, but I can understand that there’s other things. The other thing is that, you know, we talked about gold, for example, 6030 10. Where would gold fit in? Where would alternatives fit in? You know, Bitcoin is viewed nuts as a currency, but its own asset class, and Anthony’s been bullish and right on Bitcoin. So, and let’s face it, I’ve not been, I’ve not owned it, I’ve not promoted it, but it’s becoming a bona fide asset class, and there’s no doubt about that. And Donald Trump’s reinforcing that. But what’s happening anyways? So where do you put that in your bucket? It’s not in your 6030, 10, and what about the fact that I think that in this world of uncertainty and the world of debt, it was the very first question, what do you do? What do you do? What do you do? Well, you want to have in that bucket hard assets. You want to have real you want to have commodities, right? You want to. Have uranium, you want to have farmland, you want to have base metals, you want to have real assets. In a period of heightened uncertainty, could be deflation, could be inflation. The one thing we do know is that the big instability comes down to one of those questions, which is government debt globally. How does this end? Will it end in our lifetime? But maybe it ends in our children’s lifetime, you will want to have hard assets. So I guess I’ll come back and say that I have an abandoned 6040, 6030, 10. But I don’t, I don’t really. I think that you want to expand your horizons beyond just stocks and bonds. I think you want to include cash. Okay, cash. Cash is no longer trash. I’d be owning treasury bills, and I don’t know what. Anyway, when we talk about 6040 it’s, where’s the 40? Where’s the 40? Maybe the 40 is not just treasuries, but maybe in in high yield, high quality, high yield bonds, or maybe Jeannie may bonds. Jeannie may bonds at 5.4% pay you right now what you’ll get in the investment grade market. So I would say that that’s the answer. The question is, 6040, I’d add 10% cash in there, probably more. I want to follow Warren Buffett and sneak in hard assets into that portfolio. All right, let’s
Anthony Scaramucci 36:26
go to the next question. What are some of your favorite books on finance or economics? This is Walter from Canada. David,
David Rosenberg 36:36
well, I would say that you mentioned here the little
Anthony Scaramucci 36:38
book of Bitcoin by Anthony Scaramucci. I
David Rosenberg 36:41
mean, I would promote the book and but I don’t own, I don’t, I don’t own the asset class. There’s a couple of books I would recommend for the time that we’re in. I think that the ascent of money, that was Neil Ferguson, the Lords of finance. Another one. Yeah, I would say that for the for the time we’re in right now, I would say Manias, Panics And crashes, by Charles Kindleberger. I’m thinking of the night, the 1864 classic by Charles Mackay, extraordinary, Popular Delusions and the Madness of crowds. I think that’s a must. Those are on top of mind right now, Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman. I actually, by the way, at the end of last year, anybody who wants to get it just, you know, like a school through Anthony, but I published my top 10 reads of the year in December, so I went through four or five of them. The other four or five, I don’t know, the modeling swirling around in my head somewhere, but I’m happy to send that out to the folks out there. But top of mind, those are the books that I’d be recommending to read.
Anthony Scaramucci 38:07
Well, you’ve been incredibly generous with your time, and I want to say thank you, and hopefully you’ll come back, and maybe we can get at least a mid year review from you, if not a quarterly one. But I want to say thank you. On behalf of the wealthy, on network, David and I know you got to get the lunch, so I’m going to let you eat. We got to keep you to you know, we got to keep that 20 year old body of yours, well, engine of metabolism that you represent. I
David Rosenberg 38:37
think that you should come. You should we should do this in person in Toronto, and you’ll see, and you’re gonna get your nice, you know, 50% discount on the currency. And as we go to there’s actually a restaurant. There’s actually a restaurant in Toronto called Scaramouche. Did you know that? Have you been there? I’ve been, I’ve
Anthony Scaramucci 39:00
been to Scaramouche many times. Scaramouche is almost 40 years old, and when I go to Toronto, it’s got a beautiful view of the city from its location. And I’ve spent a lot of time in that restaurant over the years. Those guys like me,
David Rosenberg 39:13
yeah, they do. And then you’re going to look at the you’re going to look at the price in the menu and say, God, when did they cut their prices? And I’m going to say to you, no, when did the $16 get a 50% discount with the with the greenback? But happy to come on this show. There’s always a lot of fun, and the time goes by too quickly.
Anthony Scaramucci 39:32
Well, great to be with you. Enjoy the weekend, and we’ll see you soon. All the best.
Andrew Brill 39:38
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