Portfolio manager Lance Roberts & Wealthion founder Adam Taggart recap the major developments of the week, including:
- implications of the debt ceiling agreement
- overbought short-term status of the markets
- latest (and confusing!) jobs/payrolls data
- update on bonds and TLT ETF
- the trades Lance’s firm made this week
Adam Taggart 0:05
Welcome to Wealthion. I’m Wealthion founder Adam Taggart welcoming you back for another weekly market recap here at the end of the week. It was a very busy news cycle. As usual, I’ve got my great friend Portfolio Manager, Lance Roberts here with me. Hey, Lance, buddy, how you doing?
Lance Roberts 0:20
I’m doing good. It’s Thank you. It was a holiday short week. So went by fast.
Adam Taggart 0:26
Yeah. And you know, for a guy who’d been on vacation, you actually look pretty rested here this time. Yeah, no,
Lance Roberts 0:31
exactly. So yeah. Is the plans didn’t work out the way we expected. But hey, it’s all fine.
Adam Taggart 0:36
Okay. Okay. We’re glad to hear the staycation trick. No, sorry. We got a lot to talk about. It’s another U shaped week in the markets right are there there’s finishing up roughly where they started had a big dip in the week. Thing that recovered the market this week, is the news about the debt ceiling agreement that appears to have been reached here. I want to dive as deeply as we can into what’s in that act. I’ve got a list here, I’ll walk through with you. But just quickly terms of market action for the week, anything truly notable to share here,
Lance Roberts 1:12
we did more than just do a bit of a U turn, we broke out on Friday pretty strongly to a new high from the October lows, we broke above that 4200 level of resistance fairly strongly. That now sets us up for a run to 4306 is going to be out of that next level now is going to be the peak of where we get back to those August highs of 2022. You get above those August highs, there’s really not much stopping you back to all time highs. So you know, as we talked about before, this market just remains in a very bullish pattern. In fact, if you let me feel, let me share screen real quick, we can just do a quick kind of a technical overview of you, if you’re interested. All right, go ahead. So just you know, just, you know, just so people kind of put some of this stuff into context. So. So this is basically kind of where we are, you can see that, you know, back from these, these bear market lows that we had back in October, there was kind of a double bottom that we were kind of setting in. And if you kind of zoom into that spot, there’s actually an inverse head and shoulders that formed right there at those October lows. And since then, we’ve been running along these kind of running bullish trends in the markets. And again, every time we come back down and test those levels, those have been a good buying opportunity to put capital to work. Markets keep breaking above new highs breaking out above resistance. And we just did that on Friday. So following that employment report on Friday, which I thought was interesting, because a really strong employment report should really not be good for markets, because that means the Feds not going to cut rates anytime soon. Right. On the other side of it, it says the economy, there’s no recession, right? There’s no recession concern in the economy right now. Employment is fine. Wages are growing. So nothing, there’s nothing for that kind of that concern. So there’s so much money that’s now been set up in money market funds and treasury bills and people worrying about a recession. Now that money is getting drug back into the market. So this keeps propelling the market higher every time we get this kind of economic news, even though that works against the Fed. Right. So strat higher stock markets are basically not fret fed friendly, because that eases monetary conditions exactly the opposite of what the Fed wants to do. So the Feds got a real problem here. But technically we’re back on the buy signal, we have a bit of a sell signal. And that’s this kind of bottom phase of a chart here. We had a sell signal that kind of triggered back earlier in kind of that March, April timeframe. And the market kind of just traded sideways for about 45 days. We’ve now that consolidation that work off of that sell signal has now been reversed markets back on a buy signal. So really well looks like we’re going to try to run up to 43 4400 will be the next stop.
Adam Taggart 4:03
Okay, so you published a piece this week, titled technical review of the market bulls and control. You’ve just talked about that here in the piece. You did say bulls in control, but resistance ahead. I’m curious. Are your concerns about that resistance? Are they impacted at all by today’s breakout? By Friday breakup?
Lance Roberts 4:26
No. When I was talking about in that article is I’m talking about specifically this resistance right here which is these odd these August highs. It’s also a function of the Fibonacci retracement. So I know that’s a bunch of funky, you know, kind of technical mumbo jumbo. But if we look at an actual Fibonacci chart, so Fibonacci is just mathematical calculations of and it’s called the golden ratio. And if you look through everything in the world, you see the this kind of this mathematical formula pop up The the circles in a conch shell to the sunflower seeds to the distance between your elbow and your in your tip of your fingers. This mathematical formula just shows up everywhere. It’s just one of those those mathematical you know consistencies that occurs all throughout nature. Well it also applies to stock markets as well. And what stock markets tend to do is they have a specific kind of pattern and when they break down and so we can kind of measure the decline of the market from the January 2022 peaks to the October lows and from that low we should have a retracement and at some point we will get you know at some point in the future right wherever that is we will break out to all time highs again right so that will be a 100% retracement ultimately of that decline. But the mathematical ratios are 23.6% So once we got that’s this little red area at the bottom of the chart, so that first rally was 23.6%. The green area there is the 50% retracement. Now this is an important level historically, and this isn’t always the case there’s there’s some times that this this fails. But more often than not when the market recovers 50% of its previous loss, the bear mark that that correctional process is over. And generally from there, the markets go on to retrace fully that previous decline so we’ve completed that 50% retracement, the next level is the 61.8% retracement level that once we get to that level and can break above that level, that’ll take out that August high as well. That pretty much sets the markets to go ahead and complete the rest of that retracement all the way back to previous highs. Now that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen immediately doesn’t mean you can’t have a correction in the process where the market pulls back a bit. We’re direly in need of a five to 10% correction in the markets just from a technical standpoint, markets are very overbought here. They’re stretched if you take a look at the NASDAQ is a good example is trading above 70% on the RSI index, that’s a very overbought level. So we do need a bit of a correction. But for right now the bullish trend is in place. So corrections back to kind of this rising trend line that we’ve been building from the October lows is a good buying opportunity to put capital to work.
Adam Taggart 7:22
Okay. And if you if you were to see or a retracement that actually punctured below that rising trend line, would that be a sign that that momentum actually shifting from bullish to bearish?
Lance Roberts 7:38
No, no, that won’t be a maybe it is shifted? It will be it has shifted?
Adam Taggart 7:41
Well, we’ll close down there for some period of time, right?
Lance Roberts 7:45
Yeah, yeah, well, what technically what you want to see. So if you really want to just get all technical about it, you break this rising trend line, you come up, retest it, and then fail. If you do that, you’ve now broken that rising trend. And you’re now starting potentially a new trend lower. So that would suggest that the bull market rally that started in October is over, and you’re probably going to retest some lower level. So basically start coming back and talking about the December lows, maybe the kind of those July, September, October lows, potentially during that correctional process. But you know, if that happens, we’ve got other stuff going on in the economy that we need to be worrying about as well.
Adam Taggart 8:24
Yep. Okay. And just just to put the last word on these Fibonacci levels. These basically show why you were pulling the numbers you were mentioning earlier, right? The 4306 is the next major Fibonacci level. And then you can see, there’s a lot of blank space there up until 4535. Right. So if we, if we were to break above that 4306 decisively, you got that poll of that, that next Fibonacci level up there, you know, whatever. 200,000 points higher, right?
Lance Roberts 8:52
Yeah, well, let me let me correct one thing here. So this this 4306 level is this July is this August 12. High? It’s also the October 21 of 2021. Low. So that’s this resistance level here, right above that at 4232. So just 18 points higher is the 61.8% retracement level. So you’re technically correct. I mean, but there’s two very important resistance level kind of cluster right there. And that’s what I was talking about in that in that article on the website. Is that next resistance level is this cluster of those August highs that previous October low and that Fibonacci retracement level all sitting right there very close together.
Adam Taggart 9:35
Okay. I’m going to ask you more about the bullish side again for a second. But we’ve had a lot that’s been very market positive recently. And of course, the past 24 hours has been the potential resolution of the debt ceiling drama right which you know, markets hate uncertainty. They love certainty. Obviously, you know, markets were beginning to get a little bit worried that hey, this thing could really Get for credit protracted. And we had all these dire, you know, Armageddon, like headlines of what would happen if the US defaulted. That’s now being taken off the table. So, obviously markets are jumping on that. But they’ve had a big run. That news is now out. Who knows if there are any other major big catalysts around here, but if I heard you correctly, it sounds like especially looking at technical indicators like the RSI you’re saying look, things are looking overstretched here right now. And in a pullback, you know, it is not unlikely here. And as you said the market probably even to continue higher five or 10% retracement would probably be a healthy thing to help it get there.
Lance Roberts 10:41
Right, it did. Let me let me just share one more time it was I thought we were done. But I guess we’re not. So so yeah. You know, first of all, you know, just to be clear, you know, this market never really worried about the debt ceiling. You know, you and I were to have been talking about the last couple weeks, you know, stop worrying about the debt ceiling. It’s not an issue. You know, we were talking about the one month three month Treasury yield, everybody was freaking out, because there was a deviation was like, it doesn’t mean anything to worry about it, the debt ceiling is gonna get resolved. And that’s always been the case. And you know, the difference was, if you go back to 2011, during the whole middle of the debt ceiling default issue, the market declined 20%. Before we got a debt ceiling resolution done, market never even blink, this time around, we kind of flopped around a little bit for a month or so. But the market was never worried about the debt ceiling deal. They’ve gotten the markets gotten very complacent. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. It’s certainly not good. You know, from, you know, managing our debt standpoint, by any stretch of the imagination, but the markets are very complacent. With these debt ceilings now that they’re going to get passed, we always pass them nobody’s got the fortitude or the Gabonese in Washington to actually cut spending. And some of the comments that were made by McCarthy and others on the debt ceiling deal are absolutely just ridiculous. But again, another conversation we have another day,
Adam Taggart 12:05
no, no, we’re gonna have it today, we’re gonna be minutes.
Lance Roberts 12:08
But importantly, you know, when we take a look at the market, so you know, this is just a so another measure of the markets is, we were just about Fibonacci, we’re gonna get all technical today, this is gonna be technical Mojo Friday. But there’s another measure called bollinger bands. And you can put these on kind of any chart that you want. And what it measures is, is standard deviation. And, you know, and without getting really complicated, you know, there’s, there’s, it’s basically if you think about stretching a rubber band, I can only stretch a rubber band so far before it either I can’t stretch it any further, or it just simply breaks. So in order for me to stretch the rubber band again, I have to relax it first, and then I can stretch it again. So if I want to stretch that rubber band, I’ve got to relax it, then I can stretch it again. And so what Bollinger Bands measure is two standard deviations, three standard deviations, four standard deviations, away from a moving average. So if you think about a moving average, stock prices have to trade above and below that price, the average price for there to be an average, right? If it’s an average, it’s both prices above and below that level. That’s what creates the average. So if I can, if I measure stock prices as a deviation from that moving average, it can tell me when prices have kind of gone too far in the short term. And right now on Friday, markets are now trading three standard deviations into so on Friday, the market traded three standard deviations above its 50 day moving average. Now, historically, markets can’t trade that deviated away from the moving average for very long before you get a correction. So, again, you know, this is just kind of one of those indicators that suggest the markets kind of move too far too fast here, we need a bit of a pullback, you know, towards that 50 day moving average. And that’s a very common occurrence. So you know, when you when you know, when we’re talking here in the next week, or two or three weeks is like, hey, the market corrected two or 3% Over the last couple of weeks, very normal in any given year, you should expect a five to 10% correction, the market, that’s just normal functions of the market that’s healthy for the market to act that way. So again, you know, there’s short term we’re overbought on Stochastics, we’re overbought on the on the willie on the relative strength index, we’re trading above 70 there as well. So again, the markets have just gone very far here we need a bit of a pullback, and that’ll give you a better opportunity. So just be a little patient here. Wait for a pullback if you want to add some exposure to the market.
Adam Taggart 14:51
Okay, and I want to stay on the bullseye just a little bit because I’ve been getting a lot of comments from folks saying hey, you know, you got all these people blonde, and they’re saying really negative things about the macro environment, but but the market, right? And I want to I’m going to be very sensitive to the fact that look, the market is going to do what’s the market is going to do. And it doesn’t matter what the my opinion, your opinion, the opinion of anybody bringing the program here, you know, if you’re looking to make money in the markets, we got to be honest about what’s happening in the markets here. So, you know, clearly, the whole AI party that’s raging in the markets is continuing right now. So that’s that’s still going on. I guess. As long as you know, sentiment is super optimistic in that space, More money’s going to flow into that space. The question I would ask you is, are you seeing any any changes in momentum, they’re either, you know, an increasing amount of money coming in to chase that or money beginning to trickle out. What do you see in?
Lance Roberts 15:54
No, no, absolutely. It’s, it’s, there’s basically retail investors woke up over the last two weeks. And there’s been a tremendous inflow into technology stocks in general. In particular, retail investors are now starting to pile into, you know, Nvidia and AMD and Palantir. And AI, there’s a company called eight that stock symbol is actually AIC AI is the company and it had a big crash last week. But you know, companies are, you know, these, these retail investors, like I’m missing the chase. So very much like we saw with a mean stocks with GameStop, and AMC and others, we’re now seeing them do exactly that same type of performance with these AI stocks. And again, this weekend’s newsletter. So if you go to our website, shameless plug, and subscribe at real investment. vice.com. Or we can newsletter, I’m actually going through the similarities between the AI Chase and what you and I witnessed back in 1999, during the.com bubble, a lot of the same sentiment a lot of the same attitudes of you know, people and thought, you know, the internet is going to change the world. It did, right. There’s no doubt the internet changed world look what we’re doing right now, right? You couldn’t do that in the 90s. But the the evolution of the revenues and the profitability never came, and it didn’t support all these lofty aspirations of companies that were back then. I mean, it’s good example, Cisco Systems, the networking company, it was the NVIDIA darling of 1999 2000. And if you bought Cisco Systems in 1999, and forgot to sell it, you’re still not back to even, you know, 24 years later. So you know, we’re seeing exactly the same type of attitude within video, which great company, right, fantastic company, to buy one of their GPUs for AI cost, like a quarter million dollars, how many companies are going to be able to afford that kind of outlay? For those type of GPUs? Yes, some companies will do that for sure. But there’s gonna be two things that have to happen ultimately, the price that GPU has to come down dramatically, which means less revenues, less profit margins, or the the development of AI as as its entirety. And everybody thinks this is going to be an everything that we touch, smell, feels smoke, you know, eat whatever, that artificial intelligence will be involved doesn’t actually come to know the full fruition. So in other words, expectations are lofty. And that’s what sets up some of the problem potentially down the road. Because valuations ultimately will matter in some of the valuations, getting priced in the stocks or simply just just will never be met. That doesn’t mean though, that the insanity can’t run. And, you know, we see Nvidia go from 300 to 500, before this bubble is over, it can certainly happen and you can’t discount that.
Adam Taggart 18:47
Okay, great. And I’m trying to stay on the bush train here before hopping off. And of course, you know, big part of me wants to point out to folks that, that retail jumping in tends to be a classic late stage sign, right. And that, to the extent that this may be an asset price bubble, these are the bag holders that are that are jumping in here and likely paying the highest rates before everything correct. But to your point, and you’ve made this point several times, right at the beginning of this latest, you know, I’m going to call it a mania in the markets is that you know, this stuff can go faster and higher than then most people expect. That’s what we have seen from the previous bubbles. And you’ve had that chart you put up on the screen showing showing them all. So point being is as you know, don’t don’t place big bets on an ending anytime soon. It could for sure. But, you know, especially if you take a short position, you know, you can just get your face melted off, right. And so it keeps what I’m trying to score here is that that increasing inflows into this market are supportive in the short term, at least of higher prices from here. Yeah. If
Lance Roberts 20:00
you’re just saying no, you’re absolutely right. I mean, you do not short this type of a market, this is a very dangerous market to be short. But on the other hand, you know, you also want to buy it because prices are going higher. But importantly, just don’t forget to sell. And that was my point about Cisco. None of this is bearish, right, this is just the mania phase that we’re in and they can, like you said, it can go a lot longer and lasts a lot longer than logic would would would rationally expect, the problem that investors run into is they forget to sell but get greedy. Right. And so, you know, just it’s a, you know, wait for a pullback in some of these stocks, you’re gonna get a pullback might not be this week might not be this month, but at some point, you’re gonna get a pullback in the next several months, it will give you an opportunity, you know, to buy into some of the stocks that you want to own. But then the other side of that is don’t forget to sell them and take some profits down the road.
Adam Taggart 20:50
Yeah, in the case of the the AI related stocks. Yes, don’t forget to sell but that’s like giving people the advice, buy low, sell high. It’s like yeah, well, of course. Thanks, buddy. Right. Like, I didn’t already know that. Right. And so what I would say is if you don’t do it, well, but if you’re trying to play an exponential run up, like what we’re seeing right now, right? My, here’s my advice you correct anyway, like, I would say you have to determine your sell parameters, when you buy, right, and then say, Look, you know, no matter how I feel, once these parameters get triggered, I’m going to sell I’m going to I’m going to commit to the discipline that you know, and put into a trailing stop. And that trailing stop gets hit, I don’t care how euphoric the headlines might be at the time and how much I want to change my mind. I’m going to sell, right? Because what happens is, is people falling into the siren song, or the market corrects so quickly, that they’re like, oh, gosh, well, now it’s below my the sell price. I said, Well, I’m gonna hold on until it gets back. Right. And then unit for writing the whole thing down. So you’re nodding as I’m saying all this, but Correct. Correct that statement in any way you like?
Lance Roberts 21:58
No, you’re absolutely right. You know, here’s the problem that everybody’s rented. Let’s just pick in videos. Since it’s the poster child for this rally. Let’s just
Adam Taggart 22:05
Yeah, me, Let’s call a spade a spade, there is absolutely no way that NVIDIA can justify its current valuation unless it basically like owns the world. But but go ahead and pretty much.
Lance Roberts 22:16
Yeah. And we went through that analysis, I think, last last Friday, last week. Yeah. Yeah. So but no, so let’s just pick on it. Yeah. So the problem is with Nvidia, let’s say I wanted to buy it today, right, I’m gonna buy it at the current price. The problem is, is irrational stock price is about 30 to 35 to 40% below where it is, right now, that’s how big of a run up this thing is at its four standard deviations above its weekly moving average. And so if you look at standard deviation analysis, that’s 99.999%, of all potential price movement from that moving average is already into the stock. So your only rational stop level is at that moving average, which is you’ll have to lose a big chunk of your investment, just to get down there before you even get stopped out. So, you know, the problem is, is that most investors will put a stop somewhere, it’s like, Okay, I’m gonna buy a video here, and I’m gonna stop $10 below where I bought it. It can do that in a day. And then you’re stopped out, and here’s what happens, you get stopped out, then the stock runs right back up, you will see stops don’t work. So then you buy it, and then it corrects 50%. Right. And that’s the way markets are gonna work. And so two things like we’ve owned complaint, in fact, I know we’ll talk about trades later. But just today, we added to our Procter and Gamble position in our add the position in our portfolio, we love these two stocks, right? They’re boring as hell, they don’t do anything except pay a dividend and grow over time. That’s all they do. But, you know, we regularly buy and sell the stocks, we’ve owned them since we started, you know, since we started, they’ve been long term core holdings will will own them, after I’m dead, will keep owning these stocks. But when they run up, we sell some of the position. And so and this is the way you should treat a position in your portfolio. So you buy Nvidia, let’s say you buy 3% of the position of your portfolio, and takes off running like a scalded ape. And you know what’s going to correct at some point, so the 3% is now 4% of your portfolio, you trim it back to three, eventually it corrects your 3% position becomes 2%. Because of the correction, you then buy it back up to three. And if you keep doing that, over time, a you will own the position long term be you’ll take profits along the way, you’ll hedge your risk on your downside. And that’s what we’re doing with with Abby and Procter and Gamble, we’ve owned them forever. We regularly buy and sell them. So when they run up a lot, we take profits when they sell off, and Abby is notorious for having big sell offs, and then a massive run up. So every time it has these big sell offs, like it has now because healthcare has been out of favor lately, we add to the position. So that’s how you manage your portfolio positions over time and manage that risk and that we have to worry about trying to be all in or all out because that’s what screws everybody up. You’re trying to be all in stock or all out of the stock and try to get back in. And that’s inevitably where you’re ultimately gonna make your mistake where you buy it wrong, and then you refuse to sell it, you lose a ton of money.
Adam Taggart 25:09
All right, Lance, I love it. When you do that, where you’re basically just, you know, you’re fully transparent about kind of how you as a portfolio manager, can apply your craft here. And that’s one of the things I really hope viewers get out of these weekly videos is seeing how a good portfolio manager actually thinks and the disciplines that they use strategies and disciplines they use. And so you know, even if someone’s trying to do all this on their own fine, if you feel you’ve got the skills, go try it out. But you’re seeing how a real professional does it. Alright, so I’m going to try to stay on the bold train for a little bit longer to keep saying that, because of course, I got a whole bunch of bearish stuff that we’re going to talk through later. But one, one chart that I saw the other day that really caught my attention was a chart that was put up by Liz Ann Sonders. And it’s showing that manufacturing construction spending is going parabolic, with year over year growth, climbing above 100% As of April, and I guess this was just I hadn’t really been paying attention to this part of the economy, to see how violently spending is increasing there. And I don’t know exactly what’s driving it. I’m guessing that it is largely funds from the inflation Reduction Act to this is sort of the infrastructure spending bill funds finally beginning to find their way into the economy. Obviously, that’s, you know, that that’s bullish, there’s a it’s another capital inflows story going in there. Right. And, of course, you know, what I like about seeing money going into manufacturing is you’re kind of laying the groundwork for future productivity to so so anyways, I found that that was, you know, okay. That’s a tick like, okay, yeah, that’s, that’s that’s a bullish sign going forward. I’d love to hear any comments you have on that. And also, are there any other kind of big bullish catalysts on your radar that we haven’t talked about yet?
Lance Roberts 27:05
No. Yeah, you know, I think, and maybe I’m wrong. But I thought we talked about the monetary Conditions Index. Last week on the show, I’ve written about that previously. And I touched on it again, on Friday, I have a report out on our website talking about monetary conditions, and that has been getting a lot better. So monetary conditions are a function of short, long term rates, inflation and the dollar. And one thing that we talked about previously, in regards to the economy, one reason that we haven’t seen that recession, right, you know, since last year, but he’s predicting a recession, right. And there’s plenty of reasons for it, right, inverted yield curves, leading economic indicators. I mean, we can go through, you know, the litany of charts and data that says, a recession Zinman. But it hasn’t happened yet. And one of the reasons that it hasn’t happened yet, doesn’t mean I’m not saying I’m not saying that it won’t happen. One of the reasons it hasn’t happened is because of all this liquidity that’s still in the pipeline. All that money we spent on monetary stimulus in terms of sending checks to household. And then don’t forget, we also had on top of that, we had paid parently, we had childcare acts, we had extended unemployment benefits, a lot of that didn’t even expire until December of 2022. So there was a lot of support there. And then you also have, to your point, Adam, and this is when I was getting to, on top of all that liquidity pump, then you had the $1.7 trillion in stimulus spending, which is now really just getting to a lot of those municipalities where they’re starting to spend that money to, you know, work in their cities to do whatever they’re going to do with it. But then also funding for a lot of these, you know, green energy product projects, etc. So that money that construction, and spending money for infrastructure is hitting the economy now. So that’s keeping a lot of that’s keeping this economic data from slowing down as much as we thought and then most importantly, services, which is a big issue, and this was in last weekend’s newsletter as well. services make up 77% of the economy. services spending is not recessionary. It’s, you know, you take a look at the manufacturing data, the Philly Fed manufacturing index Richmond Fed except for all those recessionary territory services or not. I assume services is still above 50, and has actually kind of expanded over the last couple of reports. So you know what that means? That’s a big chunk of the economy that explains why between that and of course, all this liquidity is still in the system that explains why the recession hasn’t happened yet. Again, doesn’t mean it won’t. But the longer that we go without a recession, that’s going to give the rest of the economy time to go through recession, which you’ve taken a look at a lot of manufacturing components, they’ve been in recession. cyclical stocks have been in a recession, that time that they spend that recessionary territory is going to allow them to start playing catch up. Because there’s a there’s a natural pent up demand being built within the economy. So when you have a recessionary slowdown people can track spending in certain areas, but eventually they got to spin on whatever that is. So the longer you having a timeframe have to go through a cycle, then that gives you the ability to start recovering without having potentially as deep of recessions everybody thought we were going to have initially,
Adam Taggart 30:27
yeah, it’s interesting. I guess that’s maybe one of the best arguments I’ve heard for how the central planners could stick the landing here. He’s right. Yeah. Which is, yeah, first time ever, but have they had they could have kept with artificial means, you know, the stimulus they all pumped in, it could have kept the ship of state afloat long enough that they could patch up all the holes in the hole and fix the problem by the time that the artificial stimulus is out of the system. Not necessarily calling for that. But I think that’s probably one of the better arguments I’ve heard for how we may be able to have a soft dish landing here. One point you mentioned, I just want to touch on for a second. The year we’ve talked about this, right, we’ve talked about how narrow this market is, in terms of its strength, right? How it’s really just flowing, you know, the strength of the market, the strength of the indices, are really being powered by a single digit number of stocks, pretty much at this point, right. And the guys that new harbor, I was talking to them yesterday, and they put up a chart that showed the the delta between a cap weighted index and an equal weighted index. And just to remind people, the major indices, the NASDAQ, the s&p, those are cap weighted indices, so that the big companies have a much more bigger influence on the price of those those indices than smaller companies that are within the the indices themselves. And there were two really notable things about the chart. One was that we hit extremes where the cap weight is way greater than the equal weight. Every time we hit an extreme there are recession followed, right, that happened right before the.com. Or I would say market correction followed right before the.com bubble burst right before the the Oh, eight crisis, actually even right before 2020. And now we are at a big extreme. Right. So if history rhymes, you know, we should expect some sort of market correction here. We’re also at the greatest extreme in the data series. I think the data went back to like, it was like a 50 year data series or something like that. So something would have to be different this time to avoid a pretty material market correction. Maybe what’s different is there is so much liquidity still sloshing around that it gives all those other stocks their chance to go through their correction, recover, and then be back on the upswing by the time the excess finally starts leaving the drain here. I don’t know, we’ll see.
Lance Roberts 33:05
Yeah, yeah. No, it’s It’s a who knows thing right now. But yeah, you know, that’s absolutely right. I mean, you know, historically, you know, very narrow markets are not healthy. And when you have just a handful of stocks that are driving the market higher, you know, that’s, you know, that can’t really last that long. Right? Now, if you take a look at the top 10 stocks of the s&p 500, the top 10, stocks market cap wise, are the same as the bottom 426 combined. So, you know, there’s it takes so forever. So in other words, for every dollar that goes in the top 10, stocks absorb 50% of that dollar, the bottom 426 stocks, get the other 50%. So that just can’t last forever. So what has to happen here is ultimately, and you know, we talked about this absolute versus relative performance in the markets. And you know, we’ve kind of just in case, we got some new viewers this week. You know, this is analysis that we do on our simple advisor platform that you can have access to, it’s there for you. But what this shows you is is this is the relative This is the absolute and relative analysis of the market sectors relative to the s&p. So this is the relative analysis, and on a relative basis technology, communications and consumer discretionary. So that’s a little bit deceiving, you know, well, that’s three sectors of the market. So that’s not so bad. Right? Well, the problem is, is technology is Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia communication services is Mehta and Google. And discretionary is Amazon. That’s it. That’s what drives those three sectors that are the biggest cap weighting and those in those sectors. Every other sector is well oversold here. And so that really presents a problem in terms of that breadth that we’re talking about. And when we look at this on kind of just a scatter chart Have you know of kind of the sector breakdown, we can see that, you know, you see that here’s communications, discretionary technology all slammed in the right hand corner of this analysis. Everything else is in the weak category. So that kind of of deviation or this bifurcation in the market, it can’t last long, because eventually money flows have to go somewhere. So again, we’ve talked about earlier, the all these other sectors, transportation and industrials and basic materials and all these things, healthcare, they’re all in recessionary territory in terms of their performance relative to the economy, they’re doing exactly what you would expect them to do during a recession. So at some point, they’re going to come out of the cycle, these are eventually going to start to rotate up until you know, to the left and up and start moving back into improving territory, technology will start to weaken and move down towards lagging territory. And so you’ll get this rotation in the market. And because we have so many sectors that are so weak, that money rotates, the market should be able to withstand here, you know, maybe does go a lot higher, but it probably doesn’t go a lot lower either, as that rotation occurs, because there’s enough other stocks out there to absorb those outflows from technology, when we get to that point that people realize that valuations can’t sustain, you know, those kinds of levels of markets.
Adam Taggart 36:22
I gotta imagine the intensity of the rotation, though, does matter, right? So a bunch of money starts flowing at a tech right now. It’s probably gonna bring the indices down.
Lance Roberts 36:34
Yeah, it will. No, it will. Because you know, when you take a look at the top 10 stocks of the s&p 500 Here, let me see I’ve gotten hold on. I’ve got a chart of that to give me a second. But yeah, if you take a look at the breakdown of the top 10 stocks, in particular, because this is where you’re going to see that rotation occur. And I thought I had it, but I don’t I’m sorry. I thought I had one available rule handy, but I don’t. But what you’ll see is that the top 10 stocks of the s&p 500 are Apple saw Amazon. Apple, Microsoft, Google one, Google two, there’s two Google’s in the top 10 stocks. So you’ve got to Google’s Apple, Microsoft and Vidya Tesla, Amazon and miss. Think that’s it. And then the other than the other two are Johnson and Johnson and Berkshire Hathaway. So that’s your top 10 stocks. In the index. They’re almost all technology. So when money comes out, and technology stocks, yes, they’re gonna drag the market lower. Unless all that money rotates directly into other sectors of the market. Probably they won’t they’ll probably go from tech into money market as long as money markets still yielding four or 5%.
Adam Taggart 37:48
Got it? Yeah. Hey, just because people are gonna ask you explain the to Google’s
Lance Roberts 37:54
Yeah. It’s basically a Google A share to B share just when they when they were when they renamed the company and the alphabet, they split the stocks. There’s just two classes of stock, but they both trade. You can it’s one’s G O G, l, and the other is G O G, which is the one that most people follow. But there’s also another Google they then they trade identically that they track each other performance wise, but there’s two Google’s in the top 10 stocks, but
Adam Taggart 38:21
they’re both big enough that they’re both in the top 10. Yeah. And it’d be remiss to just to mention, too, that Berkshire Hathaway, also, as far as its market value is a big chunk of Apple, right. Yeah, all right. So all right. So I also should just mention, we had a great lineup of speakers this week on the channel. We had John Rubino, we had David Rosenberg, and we had Lakshman Achuthan and the the sectors that you had up there were their sort of heat maps right your color coded right you we got tech that’s just on fire right I mean, it’s just way that’s where all the attention is right now and you got your consumer discretionary is in utilities and energy totally unloved out there. These guys were saying hey, look, you know if we get the recession that they are all predicting and there are predicting a hard landing recession for all the reasons we talked about in those videos, folks are interested in go watch him. But those are exactly the sectors that they were like, Hey, if you’re gonna have exposure right now, you know, for coming hard landing you want to own it staples, and you want to own the utility you can own out of love, but important essentials like energy and whatnot. So I for those that are still thinking that okay, look, I’m still my personal recession ahead. You know, you may be able to get into some of these things at a good relative value right now.
Lance Roberts 39:52
Yeah, no, look, I mean, it’s, you know, our portfolio is split between cyclicals and defensives and we own defensive for both valuation where you Since as well as dividends and those things, but look, our portfolio is dragging this year because we don’t have you know, our portfolio is not 80% tech. So
Adam Taggart 40:08
yes, I’m an idiot. I heard some idiot. They’re sold out of Nvidia
Lance Roberts 40:12
last year, and I absolutely I know not the end of last year earlier this year earlier. Oh
Adam Taggart 40:16
my god, that guy. I hope you fired him.
Lance Roberts 40:18
Yeah, should have freaking ridiculous but yeah, but yeah, because we were looking at that stock at the time, it was four standard deviations overbought back then, and, you know, just just kept on going.
Adam Taggart 40:29
And as I’ve told you many times, as you’ve taken your Maricopa you’ve sold for a profit, nobody can ever feel bad about that.
Lance Roberts 40:35
But I did buy AMD A couple of weeks ago, we’re up like, 30% on that, and two weeks. So. So anyway, um, you know, the point here, though, is that if we get a rotation in the markets, and we should, right, just be as I was saying, you know, just look at normal how markets work, you should see a rotation from technology to end and discretion and communications to these other sectors. And lobby stocks are really beaten up, there’s a, there’s a lot of very cheap companies trading at deep discounts, trading two and three standard deviations below their moving averages. Those are when you want to buy stocks, nobody wants to buy them because they’re beaten up, they’re in love. They’re losing money right now. Like, if you buy him, you’re gonna lose money. It’s like, I don’t want to lose money. But that’s when you want to buy stuff. You want to buy stuff when nobody wants it. And then you got to be patient and let it work for you. And this is the one this is the big challenge that our clients have and that investors have in general is understanding that markets rotate and so you know, eventually we look we have these tech stocks are eventually going to sell and take profits there. That doesn’t mean we sell everything just means reduced position sizes. And we’re and like I said today, we bought Procter and Gamble, Abby’s been under a lot of pressure lately. We bought more TLT yesterday with the with the passage of the Senate Bill. So you know, we’re adding to our bond exposure. That’s all unless stuff. Nobody wants that stuff. But that’s why we’re buying it because that’s where money is going to rotate to when this thing does eventually turn. Okay, great. It’s not recession or not, it’s going to happen.
Adam Taggart 42:04
Exactly that my point, which is I heard you saying recession or not, it’s going to happen. And then my point was, but if we get a recession, it may actually speed that up. Right, it may actually increase the magnitude of that the benefit of that rotation to those currently unloved sectors. All right, well, look, let’s get on to the debt ceiling resolution. The bill that was passed in Congress is called the Fiscal Responsibility Act. I see you already chuckling they’re continuing likely the long established trend of naming bills in Congress that probably actually have the opposite effect. But but let’s not, let’s not go there yet. Let’s just talk about what’s in it really quickly. And I’m looking at some of the stuff for the first time myself. So first off the debt limit was so they’ve agreed to raise the debt limit. And they’ve agreed that they’re not going that is suspended until January 1 2025. Right, so basically spend like a drunken sailor, you know, until after the election, I think this was probably a big win that Joe Biden wanted to get right, because it just removed this specter of this coming back to haunt him in the middle of a presidential election. There are increases in spending in defense spending. So you know, while there are some cuts in here, they’re really pretty minor and offset in certain cases by increased spending in other places, so defense gets more money. veterans medical care goes up too. And I don’t think too many people are going to take issue with that. Non defense discretionary spending is capped. It’s too much texture to know exactly what the number is. But it’s it’s it’s really not that aggressive. I mean, it’s more capped. There aren’t that many spending cuts going on here. There are going to be some clawbacks for pandemic era funding about 30 billion that was earmarked to get spent for pandemic related issues. And I think sane thinking is coming in now and saying look pandemics behind us, we don’t need to keep spending on that. Let’s not do that. A big issue that Republicans have fought for is for stricter eligibility, in some benefits programs, like the SNAP food assistance program and whatnot, where you’re not just going to get the benefit anymore. If you’re below a certain economic level, you’re going to have to actually it’s going to be tied to work or at least tied to the attempt to get work. There’s some permitting reform for energy to try to get energy projects, you know, through red tape faster. Another interesting one is that student loan payments, which have been in forbearance for I think over two years now are going to kick in again. The fra doesn’t talk about this, but but that’s also sort of tied to the government’s debt forgiveness program, which is still up in the air right now. It’s currently I think on the Supreme Court’s docket, but there’s seems to be growing resistance. And I think Joe Manchin, who’s been a key player in all of this is, is now falling on the side of hey, that thing needs to be forgotten about, like we, you know, it’s it’s it’s basically, you know, shifting the burden unfairly from the borrowers to the taxpayer. We’ll see what happens there. There’s some other elements here. I’m just trying to think if there’s anything really big here. Now, I think we talked about most of them. So I’ve got a couple questions about the ramifications of some of those issues. But real quick, I just like to get your first kind of high level take on all this?
Lance Roberts 45:42
Well, first of all, it’s the typical negotiation process. And, you know, Kevin McCarthy came out after is, you know, after he got this deal done, says, Well, I can only negotiate and lead percent of the budget. And that’s a true statement, right? You know, because when you go in, and you’re going to cut spending, and you go, Okay, well, we’re going to cut spending, but you can’t touch mandatory spending. So what’s mandatory spending? Right, so let’s talk about the budget real quick. So just in case everybody doesn’t know, let’s just bring everybody up to speed. What’s the budget, the budget in the United States government is broken down into two parts, you have mandatory spending and discretionary spending mandatory is what the Word says you have to pay it, regardless of what occurs, mandatory spending is interest on the debt, which has been going up because of interest payments, Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, prescription drug benefits, and veterans benefits. Those have to get paid regardless. And by the way, we said this before about the whole debt ceiling debate, it was like, Well, if we don’t pass the debt ceiling, we’re not going to pay seniors bullcrap, because that has to be paid. That was that was in the 1995 bill that was passed, mandatory spending always gets paid in what’s discretionary, that’s the stuff we have some control over, then we can cut spending over there. Okay, so now we move from about 70% of the budget, which is mandatory to the 30%. That’s not mentored by the way, it takes more, it takes almost as much of every tax dollar that we have coming in just to pay the mandatory spending. That’s why we keep going into debt more and more, because all the discretionary spending has to be done out of debt. And the more interest rates go up, the more each of those tax dollars, which means that virtually every dollar we have coming in, in terms of tax revenue goes just to cover mandatory spending. Okay. So now let’s talk about the non mandatory spending the discretionary piece over here that Kevin McCarthy had to deal with? Well, the first thing they said was Don’t touch defense. So once you cut defense out of discretionary spending, you get about 11% of the budget left, that’s it. So what are you going to cut? Well, there’s some great places you could have cut, you could have gotten rid of the Department of Energy, the Department of Education, the Department of Health, could have gotten rid of all that stuff. Because those are actually those are actually organizations that should be run by individual states. It’s not the job of the government to do those things. That’s a different argument for different days. But you could have kind of a lot of spending over there. But they don’t want to do that. Right? So so the reality is the situation is that we always come to these debt ceiling debate, somebody’s like, rah, rah, you know, the Republicans, we’re gonna go cut spending. I did political talk radio for over a decade. And I interviewed every one of these guys, every time we got around 2011. During the whole debt ceiling debate, I was interviewing these congressmen and senators about the debt ceiling. Oh, you know, Congress, we have control the person more we’re gonna whites that arise, we’re going to cut spending and never did anything, right. It’s all theater, it’s all show to tell you what they want. And they want to tell you what you want to hear. And when they get to Washington, it’s all about what their political contributors and what the corporation’s want, because that’s who feathers their pockets. And I’m not telling I’m not, this isn’t conspiracy theory, this is just reality. This just the way the world works. So don’t use Don’t be upset that we passed the debt ceiling deal and got no real benefit. We were never going to get any type of cuts, it was never going to be. So it is what it is. The bad part about all this is is that how we count for these things. So when they say well, we cut spending, we cut spending by $30 billion. No, you just you just unspent money that was already slated to be spent but didn’t get spin. Basically moving a $20 bill from one sleeve and your wallet to the other. You didn’t cut spending, but that’s the way we counted, right? We count that towards cutting spending. The CBO came out and said oh, this is going to cut spending by the budget or the deficit by trillion dollars over the next decade. Whenever the Congressional Budget Office says anything. They’re lying. They have never been right about anything ever. In 2000. They said we’d be running a trillion dollar deficit by 2010. We got to 2010 we were running a trillion dollar deficit. They are never right because they never factor in these these sunset clauses and the and the and the increased spending that occurs on a budget baseline basis every year. In Washington, that 8% increase that occurs every year in Washington, none of that stuff gets factored in. So that’s why they’re always wrong. So we’re gonna wind up spending a lot more money over the next two years, we’ll spend probably another four to $6 trillion of debt by the time we get to January 1 2025. There’s no brakes on anybody’s spending anything. This was great for the Democrats, because now they can pretty much spend money at will at this point, as long as they get stuff passed through the House and the Senate. And they’ve got really a lot of leeway to spend more money. There’s no real in, regardless of what you think about what Republicans and Democrats, they all want to spend money, so it can exactly yeah, they all want to spend money. So anything that comes up that they can spend money on, they’re gonna do it. So we’re talking about 31 trillion in debt today, if I’m still doing this show with you, on January, the first 2025, we’ll be talking about $36 trillion dollars of debt by the time we get there. So you know it. But this is a problem ultimately. And this is going to be you know, the issue of slow economic growth, the more debt we have to store the economic growth rate is inflation will will slow below 2%. Interest rates will fall below 2%. None of that’s good. None of that creates economic prosperity, your wealth gap will continue to get worse. But those are the things that we have to look forward to the next couple of years. Now. Short term, the student loan debt is the most important thing. The student loan debt is about $40 billion a year in deferred payments that people haven’t been having to spend. So if you’re talking about now, we were talking about earlier how the markets bullish right now and right now there’s nothing going on? Does it look like what recession anytime soon at this point, the student loan moratorium is a potential factor that could lead to a recessionary outcome in the economy. And here’s one. Now first of all, the moratorium ends at the end of June, the first payment is not due till September, the first my understanding, I may be wrong on the dates, but somewhere like that. But once we get to September 1 Dateline, now all of a sudden households that have student loans have to start re making their payments. Again, the average payment is about $393 a month. So all of a sudden, when you start talking about 40 million students that are all having to pay on average $393 a month out of their pocket on student loan debt versus they’ve been spinning that 393 On average buying stuff in the economy. That’s a real potential slowdown, that’s $40 billion a year over the you know what, and this will really get set the impact up for again, you know, I said before, that we probably won’t have a recession this year, if we’re gonna have one will be probably early next year. That’s what the student loan debt could provide is that slowdown and retail spending that causes the economy to contract into a recession? In 2024?
Adam Taggart 52:57
Okay, so I had two questions for you about this. That was one of them. It was the impact of of the student loan repayment real quick, just some tweaks to your numbers of 45 million affected students. And they have to start payments again no later than August 30. So the impact of this may have actually be felt since
Lance Roberts 53:16
September the first August 32 days.
Adam Taggart 53:21
But it sounds like some of them would be starting to have to be repaying before them. Right. So. But okay, so I your you articulated exactly my concerns, even better than I would have. Now, combine that with the Treasury being forced to refill the Treasury general account coming out of this right now. We’ve talked about this a bit before, but it is a not insubstantial amount of liquidity that’s going to start getting pulled from the system by this as the Treasury has to sell bonds to refill the TGA, which has been drawing down over the past couple of quarters to fund government while the debt ceiling has been in place. I just want to give some quick stats here. So quotes I found in the news, trying to remember where I got the source from this. But in the past five months, the TGA dropped 360 billion of actual not annualized dollars, that amounts to about 3.3% of five months of nominal GDP. That’s one good reason why growth seemed resilient over the past five months, looking forward, assuming the Treasury raises 650 billion to put on deposit at the Fed in the next three months that would amount to a drain equal to almost 10% of three months of nominal GDP. So this switch from add to drain is meaningful this guy is saying. So how big of an impact is this? Especially right as I guess this would happen probably right before the student loan debt. loan debt has to start getting read So it’s almost going to be like a one two punch, right?
Lance Roberts 55:02
So so first of all, the refilling of the TGA is certainly going to pull liquidity out of the market and I run that liquidity index we show here from time to time. Yep. So part of that is the TGA funding. And so when they have to refill the TGA, that will draw down that liquidity to some degree. Now, just to put things in perspective, we do a bond auction, we do about $40 billion at normal bond auctions on average, right? They vary in size, but on average, they’re about $40 billion. Whenever we do a bond auction, do we need to explain how a bond auction works?
Adam Taggart 55:36
You know, everybody knows this give the quick version.
Lance Roberts 55:39
Yeah, the quick version is, is that when the Treasury issues debt to cover spending that we can’t pay for through revenues. So whenever we talk about the Treasury issuing bonds, the reason they’re doing that is we don’t have enough revenue to cover our spending. So they’re filling in the difference. There’s 20 primary dealers around the world and these your major banks. And so in a normal environment, what happens is the Treasury says, Hey, I’ve got bonds for sale, the 20 primary dealer, say I’ll buy these bonds, but I’m going to buy them for this price. And that’s what sets the yield, because priced in yields are inverses of each other, the lower the price is, the higher the yield, and vice versa. So if the Treasury comes in and offers a lot of debt, and the buyer say, I really don’t want to own it here, though treasuries has to come down in price to find a buyer pushing the yield up. And that’s how the market works. So now, because eventually
Adam Taggart 56:29
somebody will say, Oh, well feels going that high. Yeah,
Lance Roberts 56:33
exactly. So that’s how the auctions get done. And options always get done, no matter how big the auction is, they almost always get done. If there’s any hitches we’ve talked about a failed auction from time to time, generally, the next day, they’re solved. So you know, the auction, the bonds always get sold. And because everybody knows they’re gonna get paid eventually just depends on what price that they get bought at. Now, in a normal environment, what would happen then is, let’s say that Adam on the Treasury, and Adam is Bank of America, or Goldman Sachs, whoever, whoever one of the primary dealers are, he buys the bonds from me as the great there’s Adam, there’s your bonds. And then Adam turns around and sells them to all of his clients. So all the customers of Goldman Sachs or Bank of America, they all step up, and they buy the bonds from Bank of America. So now they all own it, the Treasury pays interest, and it goes to all the bondholders. Well, starting in 2010, when we started quantitative easing, that was the switch, because now what happens, and this was what happened, you know, through last year, or actually through 2021, is that Adam would buy the bonds as Goldman Sachs and he would turn around and sell them to Mike over here, who’s with the Fed. And so as a closed loop and never got customers,
Adam Taggart 57:46
yeah, I was gonna joke about that, where yeah, very different world from now where we are today, because in the past, that fed just showed up and said, I’ll take them off.
Lance Roberts 57:54
Exactly. And so now, this is a difference. And the reason I’m bringing this up, and the reason why this is important is it is different, the Fed is not buying the bonds. So now the banks have to buy the bonds and have to sell them off to the customers again, because the Feds not standing there as a buyer. So that may affect some yield in the short term. But here’s the big point about all this, the Treasury will issue these bonds, they will get bought, we may see a small uptick in rates in the near term, I would buy that rate uptick and add to my bond exposure if that occurs. And that’s what we’ll be doing. Because once this is funded, if we start to in and if all this other stuff is right, if they’ve been Rosenberg is right, I’m not gonna argue with David, I used to go drinking with David way back in the day, not gonna argue with that guy. If he’s right. You know, you’re going to see and we have a recession, yields are going to fall sharply. So I would, you know, as a bond investor, use the uptick in rates that it comes from the TGA refunding as an opportunity to buy bonds.
Adam Taggart 58:49
Okay. And you mentioned that you guys just started increasing your exposure to TLT. This week, presumably for that trade that you’re just talking about there? Are you if you’re buying now in the TGA, does go through this refilling process, and it has to increase yields in bonds to get buyers to buy all these bonds. Tlt is gonna go down for a period of time, right? So maybe, but but so are you buying in more sort of like, we’re doing like a, like $1 cost average or just like a programmatic buy, we expect that it could go down as we’re buying into this. And Hey, not bad, because we’re getting something we think is going to be more valuable in the future at a lower price. But then once the TGA is done doing that, and if we then recession does show up, you’re betting that yields come down, and the value of that portfolio goes up.
Lance Roberts 59:41
Correct? Yeah. So first of all, yeah, we’re nibbling at this. So that and do there’s no reason there’s there there. There’s no guarantee that interest rates are actually going to go up. Here’s why. And this is something I’m thinking about. And I’m not smart. Anybody else? I just thought about it first.
Adam Taggart 59:57
So well, that’s kind of a definitely a sign of intelligence. Africa.
Lance Roberts 1:00:00
What is everybody? Adam? What is everybody doing right now with money buying and video. Besides buying and bearish the market? What are all your listeners doing with their money right now,
Adam Taggart 1:00:15
buying tables or money market funds, money market funds,
Lance Roberts 1:00:18
what’s in the money market fund? Money market funds, very short T bills, right, one month, three month up to one year T bills, maybe the bonds that the Treasury will issue to refund the TGA will be all short term bills, they’ve got a massive buyer saving their money market funds right now to buy those bonds. So there is not a real guarantee that rates will uptick. Because there is enough demand out there with everybody slamming money into money market funds right now. And the fact that the Treasury the Treasury is not going to come out and issue 10 year to 10 year bonds at 3.7%. Right? 3.8% They don’t want to lock in that high, right? They
Adam Taggart 1:00:59
don’t want to lock in those today’s higher rates, right.
Lance Roberts 1:01:02
So they’re gonna come in, they’re gonna issue one month, three months, six months, one year bills, which is all of what money market funds are gonna buy. So our pension funds or anybody else that needs to store cash, it’s all about shorting the range. So there is plenty of buying power right now a real feat and we feel that TGA without moving rates.
Adam Taggart 1:01:19
Okay, that’s a good point. All right. So don’t spend a lot of people who have been asking about, hey, give an update on TLT. I think we just gave a pretty good one here. But it sounds like you are you are increasing your exposure again, sounds like in a moderated and unmoderated pace right now. And presumably at some point, as we get further along into this, if things continue to go the trajectory you’re you’re expecting them to there may come an inflection point where you say, Okay, this is where we’re really shifting money into here.
Lance Roberts 1:01:50
Now, we’ve already gotten a pretty large holding in TLT. And we’re just going to build up towards our target holding, which will be about 20% of the portfolio when we get there. So you know, we’ve got plenty of time. You know, there’s because of our size weighting that we have now, and the fact that when we built into it earlier this year, as well. So every time we have these little opportunities where we can, you know, pick up some cheaper prices on T on TLT. We continue to do that. So we’re to the point now that there’s not going to be this inflection point where it’s like, oh, we bought 10% today, because we don’t need to buy 10% We just need about 8% more in our portfolio. So we’ll slowly grow into that over time.
Adam Taggart 1:02:27
Great. Hey, I want to make a personal point here, because I think it’s instructive for listeners. So you know, you and I talk, we talk every week we chit chat after we we record. And you know, a few months back, you talked about on air about how you had taken kind of a personal speculative position on TLT, which I think worked out well for you at the time, I actually was going to fall glance into that, right. So I did, and I bought long term options, and it was going to hold it for a short period of time. And when you sold I was going to sold. So but you know, I? The freaking busy. Right? You know, I Yes, I talk about the markets all the time. But I don’t sit glued to trading screen the way that you and your team do. And I’m pretty positive you tell me but I’m pretty sure you got out of that speculative position. I didn’t because by the time I picked my head up, you know, yields had come back or had gone back up. Tlt had gone down. And so you know, now I’m just sort of like, Alright, do I just sell and lose it? Or do I just hold on and, you know, wait, maybe for the TGA or sorry for the the next downturn in yields to come rescue me here. But the point I’m trying to underscore here, beyond just you know, Adam, Ken is human and makes mistakes, too, is like, I’m just busy, right? I’m really busy running Wealthion. And I don’t have the opportunity to really babysit these positions. The way that obviously you and your the way that a financial good financial advisor does, right. And that’s why I work with a professional financial advisor actually work with several. Because I’m just honest with myself, right that I just don’t have the bandwidth to, you know, be doing all the gardening that you talk about, right? I’m outsourcing that to somebody who will do a better job of it than I. And so, you know, I know that you guys are great at doing things like sharing your simple visor platform with folks. So if they want to do it themselves, and they want to copy your playbook they can and they can get access that information and it look if you can get access to that information and you’ve got the bandwidth and the experience to dependably follow it great, more power to you. I just don’t think that most people have the bandwidth and expertise to do that they can get the information, but they don’t necessarily the bandwidth to put into action consistently to avoid some of the pitfalls like I you know, just share that I fell into here. So I just, you know, I know I talk about all the time on this channel about the importance of working with a good Professional financial adviser. But I think that’s a really good example of even somebody like me who talks about all this stuff all the time. And people would think, Oh, Adam, you know, you can get in and other stuff, you know, all the time I do when I can. But more often than I’d like, you know, I just get busy. And then when I pick my head up, the opportunity has been missed. And I’m like, if I if I had just given it to somebody who did have the bandwidth to do this, I would have been fine.
Lance Roberts 1:05:23
Yeah, no, it’s, you know, it’s such a funny thing to bring up because I’m the world’s worst plumber. Because, you know, I’m so busy managing my clients money that and I can’t trade in front of my clients, right? That’s a that’s a legal No, no. So I have to trade my account after I trade all my clients accounts, and half the time, I forget. So, you know, I do this stuff for my clients. And I forget to do it for myself. Yeah, the cobblers kids have no shoes. Yeah, exactly. And that’s but it’s just because I’m so I’m so busy doing everything else that I’ve got to do to make sure my clients or clients are taken care of. And, you know, I’ve got a great team of guys that I work with, you know, Danny and Richard and Mike and blisko, you know, John Penn and, you know, just just goes on down the list, just just a tremendous number of great people in our, in our firm that made sure all of our clients are taken care of, but it’s just a very busy process all the time. And by the time I get home, and you know, I blessing it, what do want to get home is looking at my stuff, you know, I needed an advisor to take care of me at the time. So but, um, but you know, it’s important is two things. Your point, though, is that one, the best place you’re going to make money is in your job, that’s where you’re gonna make your money I try to tell this to people all the time is that, you know, if you try to use the stock market to make up for a lack of savings, you’re gonna wind up losing a lot of money, because you can be too aggressive in the markets. And if you treat the market like casino, it’ll treat you like a casino, I’ll take your money. So you need to focus on what you do best to earn your savings, because that’s where we’re going to build wealth from wealth comes from savings, not from investing, all investing is there for us to make savings and income. But guess Yeah, savings income when an event is therefore is to make sure your savings and your income are adjusting for inflation over time, so that those purchasing power parities are the same over time, but your wealth will come from what you save. And so the more that you focus, and build that, you know, increase your career, look for opportunities, you know, do other stuff, real estate, whatever it is to build that wealth, then the investing side of the portfolio, well keep that wealth intact. And this is the part that people misunderstand, they try to make up for a lack of savings by, you know, trying to gamble on the markets and say, Well, if I could just take this $10,000 and turn it into a million dollars, I’ll be fine. It never works.
Adam Taggart 1:07:41
Yeah. I think that’s really important for folks to understand, you’ve sort of mentioned versions of that in previous appearances on his channel. I think the only tweak, I’d say is there’s there’s wealth creation, right, which is what you do, basically, by bringing value into the world, right, by being a good employee or creating a business or whatever. And then basically, there’s there’s wealth stewardship, you know, wealth protection, in, you know, wealth, curation, if you will. And that’s, that’s what a good financial adviser does. Alright, look, I got a couple other topics I want to get to before we finish up here. And I can, I can see the clock here, telling me that we don’t have a ton of time left, I would totally be remiss, if we didn’t talk about the jobs information that we’ve seen this week. I pulled a bunch of data here. And then we had this just bananas, payrolls number they came out today. So hopefully, we can talk about both Lance, maybe if I can just start here really quickly. So really interesting. Some of the most recent number that it’s the numbers that came out this week, showed that they’re just head scratching numbers at this point in time. So since COVID, levels, according to the BLS, we have now added 3.3 million jobs. Right. So, you know, the administration can say, okay, you know, we’ve actually created jobs, we’ve recovered, and we’ve created new jobs, right. All of that, all of that increase is in part time jobs. Yeah. Right. Which, and we talked about that, and you can say, hey, you know, maybe that’s not such a great sign of a healthy workforce, because in general, it’s showing that people have to work multiple jobs, to be able to continue to get by, right. What’s really interesting now is that pretty much all of that growth that we saw, is going to foreign born workers and not native born ones. And I don’t I don’t want to get embroiled in the political issues around that. I just want to identify that that could become a political issue. In this coming, press. is a national campaign next year, which is like, whoa, wait a minute, it really you telling me that that jobs growth isn’t benefiting, you know, Americans that have been born and grown up here that we’re basically importing people in to take the jobs away from the Americans that have been here, I’m not going to put a value judgment on it, I’m just going to say, I can see that being a potentially a very politically sensitive issue going forward, especially if the job markets continue to weaken from here. And there’s some really interesting stats that just came out today that you and I will talk about, but I’m just curious, do you have any say about those stats? I mentioned?
Lance Roberts 1:10:33
No, absolutely. On the on the foreign born workers, this is something I actually wrote about previously, is that, you know, you have to also look at the culture of what’s going on right now. And I can look, I can tell you this from my kids, that I use my kids as an example, my kids are spoiled, right? You know, they they lived in nice houses growing up, they went to nice schools, you know, public schools, not private schools. But they didn’t really want for a whole lot of stuff. So when so I’ve told you before is that when my kids turned 16, I make all my kids go to work, they have to go get a job. And I don’t care what the job is, but they’ve got to go get a job and they’ve got to work and they got to pay for their car note they’ve got to pay for their insurance is gonna pay for them on gas, those type of things? Well, in the state of Texas 18, you have to be 18 to get like a real job. So under 18, you’re working, you know, you’re a lifeguard at the local pool, those type of things. So the jobs aren’t real plentiful for 16 to 18 year olds. But once you turn 18, well, now you get a job doing pretty much anything. And what was interesting is, is that my kids were really they push back hard on me about working at fast food, which, you know, I grew up doing so everybody else, you know, everybody I know grew up being a fry cook, or you know, a dishwasher or whatever, at a fast food restaurant, you know, growing up, and they really push back, they’re like, I don’t want to do that. So they all found jobs doing other stuff to to became waiters in a restaurant. And you know, another one did work for an auto mechanic shop, but they figured it out. But my point about this is, is that foreign workers, when they come here, they are not privileged, and in the manner that, you know, they’re willing to take whatever work they can get. And so they’re filling a lot of these traditional jobs that were going to native born Americans, Native born teenagers in particular, earlier, and you know, kind of in our life cycle where we all grew up, and we all worked at Wendy’s or McDonald’s, or whatever it was in the kitchen, a lot of those jobs, you’re not going to foreign born workers. And a lot of the jobs that our kids should be doing is either they’re not working, right, and they’re not their parents aren’t making them get a job. They’re like going straight from high school to college. And they’re not getting that work experience, or they’re not wanting to do those jobs, and they’re doing other things. So it’s so it’s interesting, where have all these jobs that you’re talking about, where if we take a look at the employment stats, were all those jobs that have been created. Fast food, leisure, healthcare, right, that’s, those are the ones that that are getting filled. So it’s more of a culture thing, as much as it is a potential political argument of, you know, immigration. And of course, we talked about the open borders and all this other stuff. But a lot of it’s a culture thing right now, between native born Americans and what they’re willing to do versus what foreign born workers are willing to do for a job.
Adam Taggart 1:13:30
Yeah, I don’t disagree it on look, I live out in Northern California, you know, in orchards and vineyards, right. I mean, you got the fruit pickers out here, which is a job that the Americans haven’t wanted to do native born Americans have wanted to do for decades, right? I mean, back to Grapes of Wrath, you know, times. So I totally agree with you on that. I do think this is the first time I’ve seen headlines, pick up on this and be like, Whoa, wait a minute, right? Like we’re all the jobs aren’t going to native born Americans anymore. And this cultural reason could be a really big part of it. I just think if we, you know, it’s one thing when we have this really robust jobs market, and there’s way more openings than there are for applicants and stuff like that. I could see this becoming a flashpoint if we get into a jobs recession, where people are all of a sudden saying, Well, wait a minute, why are our policies at that point, it’ll be perceived as taking away jobs. So we’ll see if this turns into something. I just wanted to flag it. Okay. I’m just gonna pull some highlights here. One thing that I interesting discussion I had, where Lachman and I were talking about how, you know, the employment Domino and Michael Kantrowitz is hope framework really has been the bulwark kind of keeping recession at bay, or been a big Bulwark and keeping recession at bay. And, you know, we were talking about some reasons in which the unemployment number may not move, you know, all that much watchmen was looking at a couple of different data points with the guy, um, maybe maybe it’s not gonna move on that much. But then they asked him about productivity. You know, he charts economic cycles. And so what are your cycles charts telling you about worker productivity? He was just like, Oh my God, he’s like, it’s just terrible. Like, it’s, it’s just been falling off a cliff is really bad. And you know, at the end of the day, it kind of almost doesn’t matter how many employees you have, it matters, what value you’re creating in society and how that’s goosing GDP and all that type of stuff. So, you know, that’s not looking good. And then, of course, you know, some of the things that he was talking about that could keep employment, unemployment from him very much. He didn’t have a high confidence in them, it was kind of like, well, hopefully, maybe, you know, we have, we have a lot of retiring skilled workers right now and boomers that are leaving, and it’s actually really hard to replicate that experience, you know, that that 50 Your carpenter just had, right. And so we need to hire two people to take his place. And like, okay, yeah, I get that your heart, you’re kind of employing two people. But that’s not really great economically, right. Well, you have to basically hire more people to do the job less well, then the employee that you just lost, right,
Lance Roberts 1:16:15
right. Well, I’m never gonna body so eventually take over for everybody. So there
Adam Taggart 1:16:19
he goes. Well, and you and I have had that conversation, right. I mean, if automation and AI really picks up the way that a lot of people are salivating about right now, it’s going to have a massive impact on the employee landscape. Okay, so what was interesting is that I woke up to this morning, and we had this payrolls number that just blew away. I think it was like a Six Sigma deviation from the data, and we’ve been having these beats, I think it’s like, well, over the past 13 numbers have been beat
Lance Roberts 1:16:50
14. Now. Okay, we, we were at 13 beats last month, and now we’re at 14 Straight beats. So we’ve beat the estimate, 14 months in a row. And that is the longest duration in the history of the employment report ever. And not by a small margin. This is by huge margin that we beat the number this many times without having one month, where you were even close to being right.
Adam Taggart 1:17:15
Yeah. And then, of course, you know, the revisions hit retroactively when they announced those beats. They didn’t go back.
Lance Roberts 1:17:21
Nobody cares. Nobody listens to revisions.
Adam Taggart 1:17:25
Well, that’s what’s so interesting here, right? So we know that these numbers are super suspect in many ways. And you and I’ve talked about this ad nauseam, but the today’s payroll number came in, at what at something like 375,000, I think? Where’s this 231,000 of which are just assumptions, the BLS made with its birth death? Modeling? Right. So it’s basically an Excel plug, right? So part of you just sort of wants to throw up your hand and say, Well, look, you know, clearly the numbers, whatever they wanted to tell us. It is, right, you know, whoever’s, you know, working the Excel spreadsheet there at the BLS. So that was, you know, another real head scratcher. We can talk about, you know, the non impact its head today on markets. You mentioned earlier that markets are still partying pretty hard today, probably largely from the debt ceiling resolution. But normally, this would be a print that would maybe make the market say, hey, the Fed is going to have to continue, you know, its tightening efforts here, maybe a little bit more than we thought. And that would be depressive on the markets. Real quick. Before you react to that though, the thing I want to mention here, and this is interesting, is that, despite this big beat, we had a pretty dramatic jump in the unemployment rate. Right. But the unemployment rate went from 3.4% to 3.7%. So you know, there’s just so many freakin crosscurrents going on here. And this This honestly, really hard to swallow data that gets pumped out now on jobs by the government. But it is a pretty pronounced move in the unemployment, right? Like this could be material if it continues.
Lance Roberts 1:19:08
Yeah. No, I mean, like, it’s the the employment numbers have been, you know, just amazingly strong. Remember that? Yeah, you know, Biden’s been in office that he’s created 3.3 million jobs, whatever it is. But remember, all we’re doing is recovering jobs we lost, we’re not really creating a bunch of new jobs. And that’s the important thing about you know, the growth of an economy is that you need to be creating stronger job growth over time, and we’re not actually doing that. But, again, you know, it is what it is. And, you know, to your point, Adam, the thing that that the market should be focusing on. And really, it’s not the debt ceiling issue today, as much as the employment numbers is that you know, this is very inflationary ultimately. I mean, this is not what the Fed wants to see the Fed wants to see higher unemployment. And the the unemployment rate gets ticked around, you know, month to month because of calculations and things that go into it. But even at 3.7%, you’re still extremely low unemployment, you know, the Feds talking about four and a half to 5% unemployment to get the inflation rate down, they’re nowhere near that ballpark. So, you know, this is, you know, the market should take this going, Oh, my gosh, the Feds going to really start to ratchet up rates, again, if they’re gonna get this inflationary condition under control. Because the one big problem the Fed has is if the market loses confidence in the Fed at all, and say, Well, you know, Feds got no control over anything. That’s a bigger problem. And so the Fed is going to have to do what surprised me the next Fed meetings on June the 14th. It won’t surprise me to see the Fed come out with some pretty strong language about inflation and the need to potentially stay focused on that inflation by remember, at the last meeting, they said, Well, we’re gonna you know, we were hiking rates quarter point here, but we’re kind of kind of let tightening bank lending standards do the rest of the work and survey kind of interpreted that as a pause. I don’t think you’ll be able to do that. We’ll see what happens on the 14th. But won’t surprise me if they see some we see some more hawkish language.
Adam Taggart 1:21:13
Okay, all right. Well, look, I’m looking at my list. There’s so many other great topics for us to get into here. But time is beginning to get tight here. So let’s get to your trades, just so we don’t disappoint folks. So you talked about nibbling on TLT? You talked about buying Abby and Procter and Gamble any other notable trades? Nope. That was it. Oh, okay. Good. Any other thing to say about kind of just your decision making on the trades this week? No, no,
Lance Roberts 1:21:44
like I said, just you know, the, we’re looking for that second rotation. And Fridays is real. I don’t know if it’s the beginning of a trend. But Friday was really strong on the sector rotation energy was doing well, healthcare did well on Friday. So hopefully, we’ll if that continues, then we’ll see some of these kind of more defensive names, maybe get a little bit of love here for a little bit, and might see a little bit of a pullback in some of those tech names. We’re not really seeing the pullback into tech names by any stretch of the imagination, but at least have them cool off a bit. And again, remember, things can correct and two manners, they can either go sideways for a while and let the moving averages catch up, or they have a correction back to the moving average. So if we get a rotation, and tech just kind of hangs in there for a bit and goes sideways, that will also give you an entry point to add tech to add tech to your portfolio if you need to.
Adam Taggart 1:22:37
Okay, great. All right. Well, look, I want to end on one of the more uplifting stories that I know of. I’ve written about this in years past, but you know, we, you said some very nice words last week about Memorial Day. And I got a lot of nice reactions to folks in the comments. And it got me reflecting about one of the greatest stories I heard it from World War Two. And the guy I’m about to talk to, it wasn’t even a soldier. And so this is a great story about you know, a the many ways that people can serve or be in service. And also just sort of the power of one, right the difference that one person can make in the world unless you and I have talked a little bit about, you know, the tendency of stoicism and it’s really all about just trying to be the best person you can be and leave the world a better place. So a great example of this. I’m going to presume you haven’t heard of this guy, but but let’s see if you have Have you heard of a guy called Nicholas Winton? Yeah, go ahead and have the story. You know the story. Okay. Well, I’m presuming a lot of folks probably don’t. He’s often referred to as sort of Britain’s Oscar Schindler. You know, if you saw Schindler’s List that Spielberg put out, he was he was almost like a student, or a very young professional back in the early days of World War Two, even before the war had really broken out. And he was, I think, like, kind of skiing holiday in Czechoslovakia. And I won while he was there, the Nazi you know, kind of the purges against the Jewish population really began ramping up in earnest. And he kind of woke up to what was going on. And so he said, wow, you know, I gotta help. I gotta do what I can to help while I’m here. And he ended up appealing to the government back in Britain, and said, Look, these Jewish people are going to get killed if they stay here. And can we can we find a way to try to get some of these folks to safety, and basically, you arranged with the government that the priority was for children. And so he started a program where people in London could base Britain could basically do made to the government, I think it was like 50 pounds or something like that. And that would get, you know, he would work to get the children out of cycles of archaea and, you know, on routes to where they could actually then go to Britain and be placed with a foster family. And he did this for several years, or guess for as long as it could and got a huge amount of kids to safety in Britain, and in many cases, their families were later killed in concentration camps and whatnot. So we literally saved the lives of these children. So you know, fast forward many decades after the war, he told nobody about this. So he got married later on after he, after the war, never told his wife, she found. The way she found out about it was she was cleaning house, she found a ledger, handwritten ledger, he had kept her in his time and pieced together what he had done. So she ended up sort of sharing this with the media. And there’s a great BBC special that ran where they kind of tell his story to the world. He’s now you know, in his 80s, or 70s, and old guy, and studio audience, they’re telling this very moving story. And near the end, they say, Hey, Nicholas, we have a surprise, this woman you’ve been sitting next to, is this. One of the child’s that you saved, she gets to turn to Him. And, you know, they have a very touching moment. And this is where like, there’s not a dry eye in the house where the speaker says, hey, if there’s anybody else here that’s been impacted by the efforts of this man, please stand up. And the whole audience stands up. And he gets to see for the first time all these people who, you know, lives, he changed he literally saved all these people,
Speaker 3 1:26:48
letters. Back here is the list of all the children. This is Vera demand. Now very good thing we did find her name on his list. Very good thing is with us here tonight. And I tell you that you are actually sitting next to Nicholas Winton.
Speaker 4 1:27:13
And it was just so wonderful. So terribly terribly touching
Speaker 3 1:27:31
anyone in our audience tonight who owes their life to notice? If so could you stand up please?
Adam Taggart 1:28:25
So anyway, you can tell I can hardly talk about this without getting a little, you know, tightening in my throat. But it’s it’s such a great story. And, you know, I think it sort of embodies what we try to keep in mind during things like Memorial Day shows that you don’t necessarily have to be a soldier to serve. There’s many different ways to make a difference. But also, like I said, it really shows the power one it was a person who was, you know, in a place where he said, Look, you know, something right isn’t going on. I’ve got some agency to make this better. And he did and he ended up making a tremendous difference in the world. So anyway, she knew about this guy already. Love you heard about the story.
Lance Roberts 1:29:05
They made a there’s a movie I think the name of it is the man who saves children from the Nazis, I think is the name of it. But they made a movie about it in a BBB special. And the interesting thing is the guy was a stockbroker in London. Yeah, yeah, he became a stockbroker. Yeah, and died finally at 106. So even a very long happy life. And, and but no, it’s important. It’s, you know, it’s stories like this, you know, you and I talked about the tiller cycle before, you know, which talks about the evolution of society. And we’re clearly in that apathy and, you know, selfishness phase of that cycle. And what’s important about these stories and thinking about Memorial Day, and the importance of these things, is that if you take a look at what’s going on in society today, there’s whole left, right, divide and you know, this group wants these rights and somebody wants this, right. It’s very selfish, very, it’s all it’s very Be selfish and very narcissistic. It’s all about me and what I want, and I don’t care what you want, and I don’t care if it makes the world a worse place, as long as I get my way. You know, that’s not the way society works. That’s not the way society should work. It’s not healthy for society, it’s not good for the economy. And, but, you know, this is, this is just the part that we’ve, you know, that we’ve moved to. So, you know, it’s very important that, you know, we, you know, look at people like Nicholas and others, and and say, you know, what is it that made these people stand out? And if we had more people like that working in the world, today, the world would be in much better
Adam Taggart 1:30:40
place. Yeah, and I totally create sort of why I share that story. But I think a great question, or I think a great point is that anybody can step into that, right? Anybody has the potential to do that? And, you know, that’s maybe just a question, you know, more of us should ask ourselves more often, right, which is, hey, given, given where I am today, uniquely, what can I do here to potentially make a better impact than than what I’m currently doing? And obviously, you know, he was in a very historically, you know, extreme situation, and those don’t come along every day. In many cases, we’re thankful for that. But you know, you know, another question is just sort of hate mentally am I? Am I prepared that if if history calls, you know, will I step up and meet it, I don’t know. But these are the kinds of things that I think more of us to your point, you know, should be spent a little bit more time thinking of, maybe more so than the, you know, watching the next tick tock video, look, you
Lance Roberts 1:31:40
don’t even have to try to go figure out how to save, you know, 500 kids from some terrible thing, you know, one of the best things you can do in your life, I’ve done this before, and it’s, in fact, one of the persons that I did this with, now it works for us, but be a mentor, right, just find somebody that you can be a mentor to, or open yourself up to be a mentor, join big brothers and sisters organization, something like that, you can change people’s lives, and maybe it’s just one person. But that’s all it takes. Because if you change one person’s life, they’re gonna change a million others. So you know, just we all have the ability to do stuff like that. And, and, and to do good in the world. You don’t have to go do it on the Nicholas Winton scale, right and do this phenomenal thing that will be remembered in history, I can just help one person. If you don’t, one person that’ll change the world
Adam Taggart 1:32:30
will totally agree. And again, sort of a part of this up is, you know, I find that things like Memorial Day and Veterans Day for folks like me who did not serve, right, there’s this sense of sort of, like, super appreciative, but hey, what can I do? I missed my window I didn’t serve, right. There are all sorts of ways to be in service, like you’re saying, and still make that difference. And that’s maybe how we can, you know, that’s the responsibility that we can put on ourselves to honor those folks that came before us to say, okay, look, I’m going to up my game a little bit and do what I can, right.
Lance Roberts 1:33:03
Maybe the way we should start a group here, and we’ll go find people on the like, on Tiktok, if you could help one stupid person today, that will change the world. So maybe that’s like one of those, you know, sin $5 over to save a child and adopt a child over in some other country, we’ll have to do that we’re gonna adopt a child of the internet.
Adam Taggart 1:33:23
Oh, my God, like, you know, we’re gonna get a ton of suggestions in the comment section below for ideas on this forum, and that will
Lance Roberts 1:33:31
throw in the pool, we’re open as well. We’re gonna start an organization that does to solve the world.
Adam Taggart 1:33:36
Alright, folks, we’ll look in wrapping up here. I want to give just a quick heads up when it’s you’re going to be learning this in real time. As I’m sharing it. Wealthion holds two conferences every year, we did a phenomenal conference in the spring back in March, Lance was part of it. We just picked a date for the conference for our fall conference. And let me just make sure folks have got the right date here. It’s going to be Saturday, October 21. Giving you a way advance notice mark your calendars as we get closer, you know, near the end of the summer, I’ll start you know, letting you know how you can go register for it, learn more about it and all that we already have a pretty good lineup that’s beginning to form for it. I do want to just share that Lacey Hunt has kindly agreed yet again to be our kickoff keynote presenter there. If you have watched previous conferences that we’ve done, you know how unbelievably valuable Lacey’s presentations are, he spends like a whole month preparing them just graduate level walk through charts from one of the greatest living economists in the country. So anyways, if that these are with that teaser sit around your brain, like I said, as we get closer to the end of the summer, I’ll start sharing more details on that. Alright folks, well, look, we’re wrapping up here Lance. Just want to remind everybody who’s still watching here that for all the reasons we talked about And then if we didn’t, this is a really challenging time for most average people to navigate these markets. And that’s, you know, a huge reason why we recommend that most people work with a good professional financial advisor. But not just any financial advisor, you know, one that takes into account all the macro issues that we talked about on this channel here. If you’ve got a good one who can do that, create a personalized portfolio plan for you, and then execute that plan for you. And the execution is the key part. And Lance and I talked a little bit about this earlier. Great, you should stick with them. But if you don’t, if you’d like a second opinion of one who does, maybe even Lance and his team, they’re real investment advice. Just request a free consultation with the financial advisors that Wealthion endorses to do so just go to wealthion.com Fill out the short form there. Schedule, your consultation and reminder these things are free. There’s no commitment to work with these guys. It’s just a public service they offer to help as many people as they can. Alright, Lance, thanks so much, buddy. It’s always great talking with you, these you know these videos every week, folks, if you enjoy these videos would like to see us and I continue to do this. He actually asked the question I couldn’t leave you said if we’re going to be doing this in 2025 What do you mean f of course, you should be we’re gonna be doing
Lance Roberts 1:36:13
listening I mean a whatever
Adam Taggart 1:36:17
bespoke should be. Yeah, all the way to me or perhaps 2045. Do us a favor, support this channel by hitting the like button, then clicking on the red subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. And folks, we just passed 275,000 subscribers, we are beginning to zero in on 300,000 subscribers on this channel. If you watch this video, if you like the videos we have on this channel, but you’re not yet subscribed, please hit it to try to hit us. Help us get to that 300,000 level. Buddy Lance. It’s been great. Any parting bits of advice here for folks as they go off to enjoy the weekend?
Lance Roberts 1:36:51
Yeah, have a great weekend. And we’ll see you back here next week.
Adam Taggart 1:36:53
All right. Thanks so much, buddy. Everybody else thanks so much for watching.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai