Is gold leading the charge into a massive new bull market, and is silver about to follow with an explosive breakout? In this must-watch interview, technical analyst Jordan Roy-Byrne, founder of The Daily Gold, joins Wealthion’s Trey Reik to break down the historic signals he’s seeing in the charts. From gold’s breakout versus the 60/40 portfolio this March to the looming slingshot setup in silver, Jordan shares why he believes the precious metals market is entering a rare “sweet spot” for outsized gains. He also explains his process for identifying high-quality junior miners with 5X+ upside, and why now is the time for smart risk management and selective trimming.
Key insights:
- Why gold’s breakout could send prices to $8,000, or even $20,000 long term
- The 45-year silver base that could trigger a slingshot move to $100 or even $1k!
- What gold’s performance vs. stocks and bonds tells us about capital flows
- Why intermarket analysis beats short-term noise
- How to build and manage a winning junior miner portfolio
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Jordan Roy-Byrne 0:00
I can see gold going to 30,000 50,000 I think 20,000 is a no brainer. And if you look at where the Gold Silver ratio, if you look at the the bottoms in that over the last 100 150, years, they’re under 20. So gold can go to 20,000 you know that means silver can go to 1000
Trey Reik 0:25
Greetings and welcome to our wealthion show. My name is Trey Reich of Bristol Gold Group, and we’re speaking today with Jordan Roy Byrne, noted technical Guru, Guru and publisher of The Daily gold newsletter, which is a rich source of technical information on all things precious. Jordan, thanks for taking the time to visit with us today.
Jordan Roy-Byrne 0:49
Hey, Trey, thank you so much for having me.
Trey Reik 0:51
Terrific. I have been reading some of your recent stuff and looking at some of your recent interviews, and while I think most wealthion viewers are familiar with your work. For those who are not, can you start off with a brief introduction to daily gold, what you do, what you’re trying to accomplish, and how you make money for your clients?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 1:15
Sure. Well, in the daily gold, I mean, there’s two components, the free component, I put out lots of educational material, videos that focus on technical analysis and how I’m seeing the market. And then on the premium side, you know, we’re focusing on trying to pick the best juniors, like the highest quality juniors that have the most value, but at the same time, have 5x to 10x potential. And it sounds audacious, but we’re in we’re in a real sweet spot for the bull market and precious metals, and so that’s what we’ve been focusing on in recent years. We’ve been getting ready and anticipating what what’s now happening in the market. So that sums it up. And as you were talking about before we started recording, my technical work is, it’s a little different from, I’d say, what the average person looks at the average technician. I like to look at very big picture trends. I like to look at capital flows, how markets are performing against each other. I look at history quite a bit, and so I use that, and then I, in the newsletter, I really drill down from there. And in the newsletter, the portfolio I use is a real portfolio. So I’m actually buying and selling things, you know, with real money in the newsletter. And so I like to focus on again, when I think of the highest quality juniors that have the most upside potential, a combination of that and, yeah, I would just add that I am a buy and holder. I’m not someone who likes to I’m going to buy something, and then two weeks later I’m going to sell and I’m going to get back into this. So I’m looking at things that I think could do really well over the next two or three years, but at the same time, you have to manage that appropriately. You have to, I say, we’re in a real bull market, buy, hold and trim and cut losers. So if you buy and something goes down 25% or 30% you have to reassess, you know, did you make the wrong decision? Cut, you know, cut that loser. And if you do make the right decision and something does really well, you have to trim that along the way. I mean, sell, you know, at a certain point, sell a third, maybe sell a quarter, maybe sell a half. And so that’s kind of my view. Keep it really simple for people. Let’s try and pick the right stocks and then manage that along the way with, you know, proper risk management.
Trey Reik 3:36
Terrific. Well, we’ll get in a little bit later about your portfolio and how many names there are, and that type of thing, but I thought I would start with sort of a naive question, because I’m not especially technically oriented, and I’ve always sort of wondered this about gold, because there’s so many inputs, but on a scale of one to 10, how technical is gold as an asset class versus other commodities and other asset classes? Do you understand my question? Does it work? Does technical is gold a technical animal?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 4:13
I think it is. I would say it’s pretty close to 10, especially the farther away from the very short term you get, I think it is very technical, but at the same time, and I’ve learned this with technical analysis. And I’m not someone who thinks that technicals are the bread and butter of everything. That’s the problem with most technicians and technical analysis is they tend to believe that you can do everything through technical analysis, but I’m looking at many different factors and also a lot of technical analysis. I want to say it’s bad, but it’s just it’s really not that great. And so I think about when I made wrong, if my analysis on the market was wrong at a certain point, five years ago or 10 years ago, whenever that was because my analysis. Uh, was not very good. It wasn’t looking at the whole picture, or I missed on something, or I had some bias along the way. So I think that’s why technical analysis gets a bad name, because it’s, it’s not, you know, of the highest quality, and at the same time, you know what, when, if people think, Oh, it doesn’t work, that’s more a function of, you know, you’re misinterpreting what’s going on in the market, and to that point, like, no one’s ever going to be able to interpret everything correctly, right? So I try and, you know, I try and give, like, a big picture assessment of what’s going on, like, to give you an example, you know, three or four months ago, you know, I was saying that, you know, gold’s probably going to make a some kind of an interim peak here. It’s probably going to correct, correct or go sideways for a number of months before the next leg higher. And I was looking at a lot of history, and, you know, how did gold act after it made similar moves at this point in a cycle? So I was looking at that. But gold has held up in this correction. It’s held up much better than I anticipated. So, but what I was right about the big picture, letting people know, okay, we’re really stretched here. We’ve had a really good move. Let’s look at history and find out, what does it normally do at this point? And also, you have to look at, you know, what’s going on with gold against the other asset classes. So that’s an example of, okay, I’m looking at the big picture, which is, gold is in a consolidation. It’s been in one since April now. It’s a, it’s, it’s looking to be a very bullish consolidation, where the, you know, the next move, it’ll break out at some point. But I can’t tell you, is it going to break out tomorrow or two months from now? So I try and really assess, you know, kind of the big picture, kind of you know what common sense, technical analysis might tell you.
Mario Rodriguez 6:44
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Trey Reik 7:05
Well said. So I’ve been in the gold trade for about 24 years, so I’ve certainly picked up a lot of, you know, opinions or questions, and I happen to be more sort of on the monetary and fundamental side. But I’m going to try this from a slightly different direction. So one thing I’m 100% sure of is no other investment asset has as many countervailing investment cues as gold. Some people think it’s an inflation hedge. Some people think it’s a deflation hedge. Some people think it’s risk on. Some people think risk off Safe Harbor versus the dollar. And so on any given day, there are so many economic and monetary and now geopolitical events that impact gold. I always wonder, like, if I were a technician like You are, aren’t there so many different things going on at some at the same time that it’s sort of cancels each other out? Or does the chart simply, you know, take the sum of all the parts and give you an equation.
Jordan Roy-Byrne 8:13
Well, what, you know, I think about what you’re saying, because I’ve thought about that before, and this is where. Well, the first thing I would say is, fundamentally, that’s why gold, I mean, we are seeing it’s slight anomaly to what’s been going on the last couple of years, because the stock market is still going up. But when gold doesn’t do well, when the stock market and other markets are doing well, just generally speaking. I mean, there are other times when it when it when it can do well. But, yeah, it needs a lot of different conditions to be right for it to do really well. But you know my technical answer to what you’re saying, and that’s why inter that’s where inter market analysis comes in, which is my favorite school of technical analysis. It’s actually a new one. I think John Murphy developed it in the early 2000s and it’s just a great school, because you learn about, okay, why is capital moving into this direction or this asset classes? Why is it coming out of here? And so looking at various ratio charts, so gold against the stock market, I was gold doing against foreign currencies, gold against commodities. These are something that I regularly look at. I actually had a couple of these charts in the last video I did a couple of days ago. So I look at those to get a full picture. Because if you’re just looking at, okay, well, here’s the gold chart. And you know the dollar is going down or the dollar is going up, you’re not looking at, Okay, how’s gold performing against all these other asset classes or all these other markets, because that speaks to exactly what you’re saying. And so the answer to how you deal with that is you have to use inter market analysis, and you have to chart gold against the stock market, foreign currencies, commodity How is it performing against all these other asset classes? And you know the here and now, you. So, you know, it looks like in recent days, you know, it’s probably bottomed against the stock market. And if that bottom holds, I mean, that’s going to be really, really bullish for gold moving forward. That to me. And another thing, not to go off on a tangent, but in my book, I look at Gold against the 6040 portfolio. So gold against the total return of a portfolio of 60% stocks, 40% bonds, a class and investment portfolio. And you know, I have data on that going back 100 years. And you can see, you know, every time gold was in a secular bull market that was initiated by a huge breakout in gold against the 6040 ratio. And so we go back. We go to the beginning of 2024, March of 2024. Gold broke out of the 13 year super bullish cup and handle pattern. And earlier this year, in March, gold broke out of a 10 year long base against the 6040 portfolio. And so the last time it had similar breakouts, I believe you had one very early 2002 and then very early 1972 and there was also one in 1930 so that’s another way of looking at it. You have to look at Inter market analysis and understand where is the capital like? Where has it been flowing? And in recent years, the capital has been coming out of bonds, and that, in addition to the central bank buying and all that capital has been moving out of bonds, and so gold has been screaming higher relative to bonds. That tells you capital is moving out of bonds. And so really, the next big phase of the secular market will be when the stock market hits a secular peak and we see more capital moving out of the s and p5 100 and stocks and going into gold. That gold did break out of a four and a half year long base against the stock market earlier this year in March, which powered, that really powered the breakout against the 6040, portfolio. But that, to me, is really, there’s a couple last dominoes to fall, but when we see the stock market peak and gold keeps trending higher against the stock market, that’s we’re going to see. You know, what people think are really, you know, insane numbers in gold and silver. So I know that was a really long answer, but no color. I wanted to give some like, real life color on you know how this applies to the present?
Trey Reik 12:11
And having seen some of your recent pieces, I do know that you go through pains to differentiate between the short term the long term. I’m not sure you also have a medium term, but you certainly have short term and long term. So just jumping right into the fire, what are your current views on the gold price from, let’s say, a short and long term perspective, and which time frame do you have the most confidence in your work? Oh,
Jordan Roy-Byrne 12:40
really. Good question. Well, I would say, thinking about it, confidence right now. I would probably say the next 234, years like this cyclical. We’re in a new secular bull market. But I would say this the cyclical side of that. I have a lot of confidence in the next two or three years that we’re in a super bull market here. But yeah, very short term. Yeah, gold has been stronger than I have thought. I mean, it’s consolidating really bullishly, but typically at this point, after the first big move in a new cycle, which we had, then you see gold come back and it tests the 200 day moving average, or it gets within like two or 3% so we’re really, we’re really, still really far from that. So the question is, are we going to see gold continue to go sideways over the next month or two before it goes above 3500 and then at that point, the 200 day moving average would get really close to it, you know, at this point, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be tested, even though that’s happened at this point after all of the six or seven historical breakouts. So there’s that. But yeah, I would like to see a little bit, you know, I would like to see it weaken and go sideways for a couple of months. I think it would set up for a really, really good move higher. But, you know, I’m not, you know, I basically fully invested so at this point, you know, the risk is too big and trying to trade in or trade out, but, yeah, not, not to get too technical, but I do think that, you know, if we get a breakout, we get another big leg higher into next year. I think at that point we’re probably setting up for like, a 15 or 20% correction, especially, I mean, if we have another really big leg higher to 4400 or 4500 you know. And gold hasn’t, you know, and gold just breaks out here in the next couple of weeks. I think that’ll be a risk for next year at some point. But yeah, here and now, I feel really good with where the market is at, and again, stepping back looking at the next two or three years. I mean, I have a lot of historical charts, and with respect to. Gold against the 6040 we had that big breakout in March of this year, you know, and that was really good for the market and silver and the stocks. But I’m also looking at GDX against the 6040 and silver against the 6040 so these, these things are coming up on or they’re pretty close to breaking out of 11 or 12 year long bases. So I think that could really initiate the next phase in this bull market where silver and the gold stocks really outperform. So yeah, I just think the next two or three years, we’re in a real sweet spot here where I think there’s real risk to the upside.
Trey Reik 15:38
And we’ll get into some of your specific tools in a second. But sort of finishing this thought you you have a lot of confidence in the next two years, and you mentioned that gold, and I use, I’ve always warned people that when gold gets 10% or so above the 200 day moving average, you gotta you got a correction coming? Why do you think it hasn’t happened? Do you spend any time on that, or do you just let the charts tell you that it’s different this time?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 16:09
No, I just let the charts and data tell me. And aside, like, aside from whether it tests it or not, it will test it at some point in the future. And you know, again, to go back to my last answer, I’m, I’m tracking the historical performance very closely, and then how overbought it gets versus where it you know, where it is at this point in the cycle. And then how much does it typically correct, and for how long? And so I’ve compared it to, like, for example, the only comparable points right now are 1972 and 2006 1972 is a much better comparison, but I will use 2006 as well, because those are the two biggest breakouts in gold’s history, aside from the one we’ve had right now. So there’s three really big ones. And so we’re tracking this. We’re tracking the 1972 one better, in my opinion. But if you look at those two at this point in history, they corrected in terms of time for four and a half months and five months. And so I think we’re three and a half months now. That doesn’t mean that gold has to test the 200 day, you know, in the you know, a month from now, or a month and a half from now, or two months from now, but, you know, it does mean, you know, potentially, gold could continue to consolidate really bullishly before it breaks out for another month or two and but I’ll go back for a second, but with respect to the 200 day, the history that I’m looking at, okay, Whether it tests it now or not, I don’t know how much that impacts my next view that, you know, gold could break out and get to 4400 or something like that, because it could, you know, maybe it runs to, you know, 3900 or 4000 then it pulls back and maybe consolidates for a couple months, and then it tests the 200 day. So it could do something like that, or like I was saying earlier, we get a big breakout. We run to 44 4500 and then you have a bigger correction at some point next year where it comes back and tests a 200 day, moving average at that point. So it will happen at some point. I’d like it to happen now sooner rather than later. But you know, it’s at this point, it’s not impacting, I mean, I have trimmed a few positions and move some capital around. But if we, if we make a big breakout, we have, and we haven’t tested it yet, and, you know, we’re in the low 4000s at that point, I’d probably say, you know, we’re probably looking to trim positions. You know, sell like a quarter or sell a third of most positions at that point, which, I mean, that’s a whole nother conversation. And because, based on the stocks, there’s like, certain indicators, like breadth indicators, that I use for the stocks that tell you when they get way too overbought. So again, I know I kind of went off on a tangent there, but that’s how I look at gold in the 200 day moving average.
Trey Reik 19:03
Perfect. We’ll get to the stocks themselves in a bit. But I did notice in watching some of your stuff, you were just basically referring to a chart of those three breakouts and where the lines are and they’re relatively in the same zip code as in prior moves. But just for viewers who were trying to, perhaps mimic what you do on their own, what are some of your leading technical tools and which you think are most accessible for individual investors? I know that you spend a lot of time, for example, on bollinger bands and that width, yeah,
Jordan Roy-Byrne 19:44
those are volatility indicators. The width of bollinger bands. Gvz is another one, which is the gold fix. But I would say, I would say, look at Gold against the stock market, like that ratio to me, and gold against the 60. 40. You can either look at Silver against the 6040 there is a fund that you can use for the 6040 I think the symbol is big px, but I have my own historical data going back 100 years. But that, to me, gold against the stock market is really, I think, the most important indicator that you can use for gold and precious metals, because that’s telling us, is capital going into the stock market, you know, or is it going into gold? And of course, we had this huge rush into gold, you know, several months ago, and, you know, went like this on the chart. So of course, it’s going to come back down, excuse me, and retest. Do a retest. At some point it did come. It came really close to retest a really strong support last week. So yeah, I would say just focus on price action. You know. Learn how to read price action and price patterns. You know, focus on the big picture and look at Gold against the stock market. Because, you know, that’s and I would say gold against bonds. That’s also important. But money has just been flowing out of bonds and going into gold and stocks just consistently over the last few years. So it really comes back to gold against the stock market and again here and now, I mean that may have made a real significant low in recent days, and not
Trey Reik 21:19
to put words in your mouth, but going down this path because I thought it was interesting, part of the reason that you’re not as bullish about gold in the short run as you are in the long run is a couple of these indicators, like the Bollinger bands and the volatility, are not necessarily they seem To need to correct a bit more. Is that fair?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 21:43
Yes, yes. And that it does align with the history I was talking about. You know, whereas the comparable corrections lasted four and a half months in five months, and we’re only three and a half months in now. And I don’t, you know if I’m wrong, and gold breaks out, maybe the view would be, you know, it can’t run all the way to 4400 or 4500 like maybe it would run to 39 or 4000 and then correct for several months again at that point. So, I mean, if you’re wrong about something, there’s always a different explanation you can use. And the explanation would be, I don’t know if gold on the next breakout? I don’t know if gold can run all the way to the mid 4000s you know, maybe, maybe, because it’s already stretched based on the Bollinger Bands. You have that. And then also considering history, maybe that means, well, gold could have another breakout move for, you know, three or 400 bucks, but then it corrects again at that point, versus if we went sideways for, like, let’s say, two more months here. And, you know, we started to see those bands, the width of them coming down and really pinching in. You know, that that could set up for the, you know, then you could get that move into the mid 4000s great.
Trey Reik 23:01
And I know you do work, although I’m not sure how much on the other metals. But take platinum for an example. Platinum traded in a four year range of 200 bucks, between 911 100. And we actually interviewed Dave Ibn Kopernik. I’m sure you’ve heard his name and classic value investor, and he, about six months ago, was selling gold and buying platinum. And when I asked him for his reasoning, a typical value investor, he said, Well, gold’s up a lot, and platinum is not, which I thought was kind of funny, because I don’t even look at them and sort of the same, you know, zip code of an asset, and all of a sudden it breaks out of this four year basing pattern and goes up 50% in two months. So I’m don’t mean to box you in, but was there any sign that that type of Do you ever, can you ever see that type of a breakout before it happens, or does it just happen? And you have to react.
Jordan Roy-Byrne 24:03
You can, I mean, there’s things you could look at on the chart, like the Bollinger Bands, for example. You can look at volatility indicators, because those, they’ll really pinch in. And you’ll look at the volatility indicator getting really low, the width of the bands. It gets really low on the chart, and you know that there’s going to be a huge breakout, but you don’t always know at what point that’s going to happen platinum. I don’t follow it, so I can’t give you a good answer, but I would say, like, periodically in recent years, it always popped up like, oh, Platinum is a really good value. Now, you know, may, you know, maybe it looks like it’s going to make a huge move, and then it didn’t happen. It took more time. But, you know, a good, a good textbook example of as an answer to your question, is gold and the cup and handle pattern, because gold, you know, typically, so it’s about a 12 and a half year or 13 year long cup. And. Know, you had a nine year long cup, and the handle lasted, I think, three and a half years or so. So typically, and I was, you know, writing about this two, three years ago, like the handle will last like a third of the time, or like a fourth of the time. So the the handle actually was a little longer than I expected. So there was points in 2022 I mean, you had the Russian invasion, where you kind of had, like a false move there. And then in 2023 I remember, I think in the it was in the spring or even in the summer, like it looked like it was really close, like it could be really close to breaking out, you know. And then you had the breakout on the quarterly chart, I think in on the monthly chart, I think at the end of November, the end of December, but still, it didn’t, you know, it didn’t really break out until March. So that was one that, you know, it could have broken out, you know, 10 or 11 months beforehand. So to answer your question, you can look at the setup and know that a breakout is coming, but as far as pinpointing when it’s going to happen with respect to, you know, gold, platinum, or whatever, that’s extremely difficult. I think it’s, I think it’s easier with stocks, probably because, you know what you were saying at the beginning of the interview, there’s so many different factors that feed into gold, dollar, this stock market, you know, jobs, data and that. I mean, that could be a reason why it’s really hard to trade on a, you know, real daily basis and try and pinpoint when these moves are going to occur.
Maggie Lake 26:30
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Trey Reik 26:49
now. Silver is silver. More in your bailiwick? Yes. So just very simply, because, you know, I’ve spent a lot of time on silver, I you know, everyone’s familiar with the similarities and the differences in the industrial uses and folks, so we have to go into all that. My question is, I think, from your perspective, as someone who’s pretty good Chartist, are you in the slingshot camp, the people who believe you know we’re about to have a moonshot on silver. We got to 39 and that was sort of almost consensus was we were going to 50. I personally don’t look at Silver that way. I don’t think it’s that reliable. The whole first gold, then silver thing. What’s your view on silver?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 27:38
Well, this is another good textbook example to your previous question, silver, when it breaks $50 this will be the second biggest breakout of all time, because this is a 45 year long or 46 year long base, actually the biggest breakout of all time. I used to say it was commodity prices in 1972 because there was a base going back to civil war, but it’s actually gold, because gold popped during the Civil War, and then it had other, you know, I think other pops, even though we were on the gold standard. And so when gold broke out in 72 there was this basically in 100 year long base. And of course, we know it was artificially held back. But you know, when you have breakouts from really long bases, you know, you get spectacular moves higher. So gold in 72 is the greatest breakout of all time. Number two will be silver in the next year or two, when it breaks above 50. So I am, I am definitely in the we are going to see a slingshot camp. But again, to go back to your last question, timing, I don’t know if it’s going to break out, you know, in two months or two years. I mean, we are. We took out 3537 was important. I mean, there’s a little resistance at 4142 so that might be the next stop. Maybe it pauses there for a little while. You know, based on my historical analog charts, they would tell you that we could break 50 sometime next year. So that would be my guess. But you know, that doesn’t inform my investing in various companies and that sort of thing. Just what I can tell you is, I do think it’ll break 50 in the next few years, and we will get that slingshot move. And it’s interesting, because if you look at 2004 2005 oil and copper both had huge breakouts. Now they didn’t have breakouts from half century long bases oil, I was about 24 years copper, I think was closer to 30 years and copper, as you probably remember, oh, four when it broke out there. I mean, that was a real slingshot move. So based on those breakouts, if you apply that to silver, breaking 50, I’ve been saying this is something that could go to 100
Trey Reik 29:44
like I was just gonna ask you, after out of 50, is it going to 100 and you said it, so if we get past 50, it’s a double sort of,
Jordan Roy-Byrne 29:51
yeah, no. I mean it. You know, I have been saying this on some interviews in the last year, but all those ridiculous predictions that people in our sector. Have been making they’re going to, you know, we’re getting much closer to where they’re going to become reality, like, now’s the time where, you know, people should actually start paying attention, because you have the tactical setups. And, yeah, I think the early 70s are the best comparison. And here’s something really interesting, just a historical fact or factoid. So gold broke out in 72 and then silver broke out in 73 and so based on that, yeah, based on that analogy, I’m leaving something out, but based on that analogy, it would tell us that silver could break 50 next year. Again, I think I’m forgetting something. But looking at how gold broke out in 72 and then silver a little bit after that. It makes sense that we’ve already had the big cup and handle breakout in gold, and now silver will be next in line to break 50. But to go back to an earlier point I was making, looking at Silver against a 6040 portfolio, that’s an important indicator to use for silver, aside from just looking at Silver in nominal terms. When silver, you know, when silver breaks out through that 12 year long base against the 6040, portfolio, that’s going to tell us that, okay, silver is in position where it can break 50 bucks, because that breakout would tell us, okay, well, capital is moving out of conventional investments and now into silver. So that’s kind of a confirming indicator that I look at. But and another thing I’ll mention, I think the stocks are going to front run this move in silver a little bit. You probably remember in 20 was it 2010 when silver had that big breakout above 20 or 22 the stock, some of the stocks, were starting to front run that move. And I think we’ve already seen it like when silver, even before it broke 35 like some of the better juniors, like, they were front running that move. And so I think that it’s just a guess, but maybe when silver breaks at 42 resistance, and IT trends towards 50, like, you can see the stocks like, really starting to front run that move. I don’t think it’s going to be a situation where silver breaks 50 and it’s at 55 and then these, all these juniors are depressed, and then people just they’re going to wake up and then bid all these depressed stocks up. I mean, that might happen with a few stocks, but I think that the quality silver companies, I think really think they’re going to front run this breakout above 50, and that they’re really going to what silver again, when silver gets above 4142 I can see that
Trey Reik 32:26
happening. Interesting, very interesting. Now is copper in your bailiwick?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 32:30
Not really. I am just really shocked at the recent like that confounds the tactical
Trey Reik 32:36
the question I was going to ask you, I’m going to ask you anyway, because from the Technical Analysis viewpoint, I’m sure you’ll have an opinion. So the way I was going to talk about copper is obviously no one in the world knew that Trump was going to give an exemption for refined copper since he’s been talking about the 50% tariff for six months or four months, and we’re all aware of the enormous premium 30% of COMEX futures over the LMA, LME, cash price and the hundreds of 1000s of tons that have come to the US and anticipation are all short circuited in one second. So my generic question to you is, is the copper chart now just broken.
Jordan Roy-Byrne 33:23
It is, but I would, I think that if we could see just going off memory, I think if we could see copper get above 450 and kind of get back into that area, if it can recover and get back into that upper area, that would be a much better sign than if it stays below 450 but, you know, if you look at a quarterly, I’m wondering, if you look at a monthly chart, if you get the same thing, it might be the case. But if you look at a quarterly chart, you can definitely see the failed breakout there. So I look at, you know, for all these markets, I’m looking at, you know, quarterly, monthly, weekly and daily. You have to look at every have to look at everything, because that they’re equally important. Well, they’re important to different time frames. Quarterly is like very big picture. You know, monthly is less important than that, but monthly is more important than the weekly. So they’re important to those time frames. Gotcha. So daily and weekly, you know, that’s more short term. But, you know, monthly and quarterly, that’s like a real big picture view. So to give you an example, like gold broke out. I think the, I think it’s monthly breakout might have been at the end of November 2023 but I remember it definitely had a quarterly breakout at the end of the end of the year, at the end of December 2024 so it had already broken out of the company handle on the quarterly chart, and that was basically telling you that it’s going to happen at some point on those shorter term charts, which it did three months later.
Trey Reik 34:50
Interesting, interesting. So moving over to the equity sector, jumping around a little bit, I know that that’s sort of the bread and. Butter of what the daily gold newsletter focuses on. I believe that’s the case. And starting with sort of a general introduction, you know, tell us a bit about your approach in terms of investing in individual gold equities.
Jordan Roy-Byrne 35:17
Well, I’m looking for juniors that I think, as I said before, I’m weighing quality and potential equally. So I’m looking at, okay, what are the highest quality companies or assets here, and then what’s the current value basis of potential? I mean, in the last couple years, I’ve, I’ve taken more of an interest in looking at company fundamentals and doing less work on the macro and a lot more work just on the micro. As far as you know, companies and fundamentals and really understanding these projects, I focus, I would say, more or mostly, on Junior producers and developers, because, as you know, building a mine, that’s when you get the biggest rerating. So I’m looking for companies that are growing production, or companies that are building mines, and so that you get to that point where you can get a rerating. And I also like these types of companies that are doing that, but then investing in exploration at the same time. So I think that’s one way you can invest in exploration. So that’s that’s probably my wheelhouse for the companies. But I do look at some exploration companies. I do have a few that I own here and there, but, but for me, it’s on that side. It’s more like I want them to have some value already, like they have some defined deposit, but maybe there’s big upside. Like, I don’t want to be so low on the food chain that I, I call it gambling on drill holes. Like, I don’t want to do that. I don’t want to gamble on drill holes. So that that’s really the focus for me. And I look at, you know, what’s their value, like at current metals prices, I’m not like, I don’t think it’s a good idea to just assume, well, you know, gold’s gonna go to 5000 or silver is gonna go to 100 let me map out here what x company will be worth, because you don’t know when that’s going to happen. How much cost inflation is there going to be leading up to that, and all of those factors. So I’m just looking at, okay, what’s this company worth right now, if these margins would stay the same, what could this company be worth in two or three years or a year, and then what’s the upside? And so if it has 2x or 3x upside, then maybe, if we get, you know, continued, big move in the metals, the bull market continues. If this can double or triple, just if margins stay flat, well, if we get another leg higher and margins go up, then, you know, maybe it can go up 4x or 5x so that’s how I’m looking at it. And also, like, if you’re if you can buy value like that, it really protects you on the downside. You know, if the market, you know, if we have some longer correction, or the metals will go, you know, sideways for a year, which would be unusual, but that not predicting that, but you know that could happen at some point. So that to me, like when, when finding the companies and really assessing what they could be valued, focusing on them, just solely on them, and less on Okay, gold’s going up. I need to find, I need to buy a gold stock, or silver is going to go to 100 let me find it, you know, a 15 cent Junior here that has silver in the name. Like, I, I don’t do that. I’m, you know, laser focused on the companies. So basically, it has to be a good story. Well, a good story because there’s good, there’s a, there’s good value to it, like there’s, you know, real, I mean, there’s real fundamentals to it. And I will say it is a little bit, obviously, the, you know, a lot of these stocks have been red hot, so like here and now it is, it is getting more difficult go. You have to go down on the food chain. And you’re, you can still find really good value in good companies, but they may have a few more warts than say, if you did this like six months ago or 12 months ago. So it is. It does get a little more difficult. You know, as as the bull market transpires and continues,
Trey Reik 39:19
yeah, there’s a common question these days, why aren’t the stocks doing better? And I’m sure you have the same answer. A lot of the great companies are doing really well. You know, Agnico Eagle all the way down, the really good companies are outperforming so a lot of them are doing quite well when you in your portfolio, sort of, how many stocks do you normally have, and what advice would you give to individual investors on the appropriate diversity and risk management in this, you know, very risky area of the market,
Jordan Roy-Byrne 39:54
usually have about 12 to 15 Yeah. And I would say, do. Just get to know the companies really, really well. Like, become an expert in these spend your time researching these companies and less on watching podcasts, which I heard, you know, Rick real say that once, but you know, even though we’re all being interviewed on these YouTube podcasts, so it’s kind of funny, but it’s really true. Like, spend less time listening to guys. And I’d include, I include myself, guys like me trying to predict the macro, and spend more time becoming an expert on the companies that you own, because they will take your call like you can, you know, you can talk to the CEO and in you know, become an expert on these companies. So, I mean, most people, they own too many companies. So I would narrow your list and increase your focus on that list. I would also say, because we’re presuming that these people don’t have a lot of expertise as someone like you or me, then I would say, focus on developers and junior producers. Don’t focus on the explorers unless they’re kind of larger. So I would say that, yeah. And I would, I would say, and then you have to know how to manage your portfolio. You know, if something’s not performing well or you have a certain stop out point, just sell it, move on. That’s one problem I see with a lot of people. You know, they own stocks that are clearly dead, and they’ve owned them for 10 years, but they just, they, you know, they have a habit of holding on to them and thinking they’re going to turn around like people have to sell things that are losers. They have to learn to dump those sooner rather than later, even when you’re in a bull market. And then on the other side, I would say, because people, as you know, they ride these things all the way up in a bull market and then all the way back down. You have to learn how to sell, and that’s why I say trim. Trim your gains. Buy and hold. We’re in a bull market. Cut the losers. Trim your big winners. It doesn’t mean you even have to sell half. But I, you know, in the last like, month or two, I’ve just been trimming, you know, just doing little okay, I’m selling 15% of this. I’m selling, you know, 20% of this, 10% of this. I’m just doing these little trimmings, and then if the stock comes back, you know, you can add to it. If it keeps running, you’re still making a lot of money, right? You know, I had some a couple stocks, you know, one stock in the portfolio a couple of months ago, I think it was 13 or 14% of the portfolio at one point. So I sold it, and I trimmed it a couple times. And, yeah, that’s come back. And there’s another one I did that with recently. And look, you can take these gains. I mean, you can even sell a third at those points. You’re still holding the stock, so you’re still benefiting if it keeps rising. But you have to, you have to, this is a way of risk management, because you trim and if you still think the market or sector is going to move higher, just rotate that little bit of capital into a new idea, something that might have better value. So people, they really have to have a plan. And you do trimming. There’s many reasons why you will sell something or trim, but that should also be company specific. So, you know, you may like, you may want to trim, or you may want to, you know, trim everything by a third, but, like, a better idea, would be okay, go stock by stock, because there might be some where, okay, I should sell all this, or I’ll sell half of this. This one, I’m not going to sell, you know, this one. I’ll sell, you know, a third. This one, I’ll sell half. So that’s a good way to lower the risk on your portfolio, but keep you invested at the same time. So think all these things can really help people. And yeah, and I would just say, Yeah, I’ve done a little trimming in the last month or two, but not a lot like I’ve reallocated to other stocks. But I will say, if we do, you know, get a move above 4000 and we see, you know, silver potentially breaking 50 at some point next year. And I think the, you know, gold could be at that point where it could have a 15 or 20% correction. You know, breadth indicators are really blowing out to the upside. Then I’ll probably, you know, be more aggressive in trimming. I might sell a third or half or things at that point of in time. And then, you know, reallocate at the same time. So knowing how to manage your portfolio, cutting losers, trimming winners, is so important
Trey Reik 44:04
on an average basis. What’s your typical turnover in your portfolio? 12 stocks,
Jordan Roy-Byrne 44:11
um, turnover I like to hold for a couple years. I mean, it really depends on what kind of market you’re in. I mean, if, if it’s 2022, or 2023 you know, I was getting stopped out of things a few more times. Now, we’re, you know, we’re at a point where, you know, you could buy and hold lots of things so there’s less turnover, although I did say, because I’m 98% invested in the portfolio, I do mention ahead of time, okay, I might sell this one. This would be the one I’d sell if I want to buy something else. So as far as turnover in the last year or two, I think, I think there’s this would only be if I do sell that stock, that would only be the second one I’ve sold in the last year or two, I think. And
Trey Reik 44:58
to the degree that you’re comfortable. Bull. Do you share a name or two or, you know, as an example of a sector,
Jordan Roy-Byrne 45:04
you know, I would say just, I would tell people, just go to the daily goal.com and subscribe. It’s very it’s very affordable. I it’s just, it’s just because I don’t have that, I don’t have that many names, like, if I had 20 or 25 stocks, but I don’t have a whole lot of names, so And people have, and that’s another thing, people, if people are really, if people are really serious, they should subscribe not only to my service, but you know, other people you like, and get some real expertise. Like, get get some, you know, get somebody who you trust, who can really help you along the way. Like, don’t be, and I know it’s self serving to say this, but don’t, you know, don’t be cheap. Like, don’t, you know, skimp on on all that stuff. Like, you know, you have to invest a little bit in some expertise. I would say,
Trey Reik 45:53
How much is your publication? It’s
Jordan Roy-Byrne 45:57
150 bucks for six months.
Trey Reik 46:01
Very reasonable. I would think, if we can get one or two winners out of that, it certainly pays for itself, right?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 46:07
Yeah, absolutely. And, I mean, you can sign up in minutes. You can see, you know, my my top 10 company list, my top 10 company watch list, I have a top 10 silver company list. So there’s a wealth of information, wealth of information that are at your fingertips once you sign up.
Trey Reik 46:24
Excellent. So I saved just for a wrap up question, the one question that I think folks like you and I hate to answer, which is, what’s your long term price prediction for gold and silver? Or do you have one?
Jordan Roy-Byrne 46:39
I do. I mean, I do think that we’re going to see this secular bull market last well into the 2030s and I look everything, I’m looking, I mean, I can see gold going to 30,000 50,000 I think 20,000 is a no brainer. And if you look at where the Gold Silver ratio, if you look at the the bottoms in that over the last 100 150, years, they’re under 20. So if gold can go to 20,000 you know, that means silver can go to 1000 so I but you know these predictions, they’re funded, but they don’t help anybody make money right now, like they get people excited. And if silver goes to 1000 you know that could mean that, you know, three or four that let you know that last move will come super quickly, you know, potentially. So it’s not, if silver goes to 1000 that doesn’t mean it’s going to sit at 1000 for a year or two, right, you know, or even a week. But I think, yeah, but I think, I think we’re going much, much higher, and I think in the next couple of years, you know, we could see gold, you know, we could see gold go to, you know, 7000 8000 in two or three years, in this cycle, maybe four years. And in that case, I think silver could go well over 100 just in the next two or three years. But as I was saying before, I’m not investing based on that, you know, I’m investing on, what are these companies worth right now, and if, and you know, how much potential do they have? If margins stay flat, and you know, versus if you know, margins rise in the next couple of years? So that doesn’t, you know, those factors, don’t they have no bearing on you know how you should invest your money right now? I would say,
Trey Reik 48:23
perfect. Well, Jordan, thanks for your time. This has been a great introduction into what you do and how you approach markets. I learned a little myself. I’m sure viewers have picked up some new information, and we’ll be watching your report and your progress, and we’ll check back in a few months.
Jordan Roy-Byrne 48:43
Trey, thank you so much for having me. It was a real pleasure.
Trey Reik 48:46
Excellent. Great. Thanks, Jordan.
