Monetary expert Matthew Piepenburg of GoldSwitzerland.com returns for Part 2 of our interview with him in which he explains why, whenever countries become too indebted (as we are now) it’s ALWAYS the currency that’s sacrificed. In the long run, hyperinflation is likely to be the end result.
But in the near term, a recession & bear market correction look quite likely. Which makes the current environment a highly uncertain one for the individual investor.
Matthew Piepenburg 0:00
The Fed will not pivot and not create more liquidity until there’s at least a 30 or 40% drawdown in the markets in my opinion, they’ll wait for real pain before they quote unquote revert back to stimulus. So in my opinion, it’s not a time to chase these markets now wait till there’s at least a 30% reversion then the Fed will come in and like March of 2020, you’ll get the buying opportunity of a lifetime
Adam Taggart 0:30
Welcome to Wealthion and Wealthion founder Adam Taggart. Thanks for joining us for part two of our interview with monetary expert Matt Piepenburg. If you haven’t yet watched part one of this discussion with Matt, in which he warns that the vast and fast multiplying amount of global debt will inevitably cause the destruction of the purchasing power of the world’s major currencies, head over to our channel at youtube.com/wealthion. And watch it there. First, it sets the context for the investment themes we discuss in this video. Okay, let’s get started watching part two of our interview with Matt Piepenburg. What assets are you looking at right now given what you see coming and correct me if I’m wrong, but having read your article, it does seem like you think that there are short term disinflationary, and deflationary risks heading probably as we get to, you know, the lag effect causing some things to crack and a market correction as a result of that and whatnot. So there may very well be, you know, a lot of, you know, downward price destruction before we get this big rescue that then shoots things to the moon.
Matthew Piepenburg 1:36
Oh, yeah, no, it’s, you know, it’s, um, it’s an important question. And again, a lot of criticisms, you know, there’s so many different types of investors that are watching this, I can’t give one answer, because it’s what I would tell my daughter, what I would tell my father are different advice. Right? What I would tell, you know, some people who are active traders don’t even want my advice, because they look at things differently. It 30,000 feet, the first thing I’d have to distinguish before I give any specific advice is what type of investor Are you? Are you a preservation focused investor or growth focused or somewhere in the middle? Many criticisms of folks like me, because I’ll be blunt, I am not looking for growth anymore. You know, you’ve heard the joke. How do you make a small fortune you inherit a large fortune right? To me, the key to remaining wealthy is not to lose money. I’m at that point by luck or crook that I’m not interested in trying to double my money every year in the markets, I had that mentality in my 20s, and 30s. And I got lucky. And now I just want to preserve so I have a different bias. I am the boring gold precious metals guy, like many of our clients, whose main focus right now is just preserving. I understand the criticism that Hey, Matt, that’s great. But there’s many of us who need to grow and beat inflation. So how do I how do I position myself if you’re not already a trader, because I know people that like I said, who just do one thing, and they go long and short Tesla, that’s their career, they can make a lot of money by following exit and entry signals, Bollinger Bands, Keltner bands, demark indicators, you know, sector rotation scales, it’s very complex, you can’t give that kind of advice over the air because it requires years of experience. So for many of your viewers, I would understand they’re relying that on their advisors. And my point is, so with your advisor, the first thing I would say, again, I’ll repeat it over and over, get the heck out of us have a risk parity portfolio of diversified stocks and diversified bonds, because they’re correlated. I would also check with your advisor, what is the benchmark is the benchmark the s&p for your portfolio and absolute return of say, eight to 10% to beat inflation? Because the answer your advisor gives tells you the type of mentality he or she has. Because just benchmarking the s&p is too easy. That means when the s&p is down 30 And you’re only down 20. That’s a victory. So again, look at how your advisor if you’re not actively trading yourself, how does your advisor look at risk? What really is the hedge my opinion, my advisor if I were going to advise it right now, I’d want one who knows how to go long and short and hedge? That’s very generic advice. But it also one advisor right now who sees a topping market and is more interested right now and waiting for mean reversion because I do see an old moment. I don’t know when could be nine months from now or nine weeks from now. But I would want a portfolio that doesn’t have the time that it is already hedged enough right now mostly in cash equivalents, like Ray Dalio and others. I mean, I think even Gosh, Jeremy Grantham, I’m going to GMO, they’re heavily in cash equivalents and short term short duration treasuries, because they’re not looking to top out right now or to chase the top. They understand the old adage, buy low and sell high that almost no one does. But I don’t see a lot of alpha right now and just going long, a few sectors. I think, as I’ve said before, if you want to buy low and sell high, you’ve got to have the patience like a gym. You know, I would actually say a Rick Rule or a Ross Beaty. These guys have long term horizons. There’s clearly as Ronnie Stoeferle has shown a cycle an inverse relation between commodities and equities in the s&p right now commodities are cheap it’s value, but they can be very volatile and stomach churning for short duration thinkers, short term investors. If you’re a longer term thinker, and you’re looking and you have the time and the patience to wait it out, you could go into an allocation to commodities, 10 15% commodities, a much larger allocation to short duration treasuries to try and at least keep up with inflation. My advice is to wait for a mean reversion and buy low in any sector in the equity markets. I would stay away as Luke Grohmann says, From long duration treasuries and long duration sovereigns, they’re just not giving you return free risk anymore. They’re given I mean, risk free return, they’re giving you a return free risk. So again, it’s commodities. It’s cash equivalents. It’s patience. And it’s waiting for mean reversion. You could argue that they’ll never be a mean reversion the markets because the Fed will just print money to keep the markets always up and above the nose level of the water level. But the Fed will not pivot, and not create more liquidity until there’s at least a 30 or 40% drawdown in the markets, in my opinion, they’ll wait for real pain before they quote unquote revert back to stimulus. So in my opinion, it’s not a time to chase these markets. Now wait till there’s at least a 30% reversion, then the Fed will come in and like March of 2020, you’ll get the buying opportunity of a lifetime. So if you’re 70, or 80 years old, don’t you can’t wait for a mean reversion and you can’t sit in cash forever. It doesn’t mean you should be chasing tops. So it’s very complex. And again, it goes to are you looking for growth? Are you trying to preserve? What’s your age level? What’s your tolerance? It sounds like I’m trying to avoid the question. But really, for me, I like to buy low and sell high. I’d rather get a commodity, more commodity focused portfolio, not just gold, not just silver, I’m talking commodities, hard assets. While they’re cheap, and have the patience to wait many years, my daughter who’s 28 can do that. Some of your viewers don’t have the patience, or maybe they do I don’t want to presume I think to be chasing tops when you’re not actively trading means you’re gonna have to ask your advisor, what are you doing then to protect against risk and capture some alpha, it’s very hard to capture alpha in these markets, unless you know how to go long and short. It’s that simple. You need active management right now, if you’re relying on the third party advisor, you need active management, as we said last time, and I’ll pound my fist again, again, good managers whose first protocol is managing risk, not promising projections. Because this is not a market, in my opinion that offers a lot of alpha right now on the long side. There’s just too much downside risk. And I have been bearish for years. But I’ve always found opportunities in the markets long and short if you know what you’re doing. And there were moments like in March of 2020, where I was as bullish as you could be when I saw the Fed starting to go into unlimited QE, and I’m in cynical about the Fed. But do you get a signal like that, it’s full speed ahead full gas down long equities, right now is not the time to be doing that. Wait until there’s that dip that requires fed pivoting, or fed liquidity, whatever they want to call it. That’s your opportunity. Your managers should be holding in cash until that opportunity comes, in my opinion, I think to be chasing tops and buying the narrative that these are resilient markets, that labor is strong, that a soft landing is here. Let’s go long and hard. The s&p That’s crazy, as we’ve just talked about for the last hour, it is not a soft landing, the labor market is not resilient. And we have a debt based system that is going to need more stimulus from the Fed. And that stimulus will come only after the markets cry uncle and start puking. That doesn’t mean you short, the s&p and time that wait for it to start puking buy that dip when the Fed is stimulating the recovery. And that’s my plan. So in the meantime, I stay out of it. I’m mostly in cash equivalents got some commodity exposure, and I preserve the wealth I have through gold, not because gold rips, it’s only because currencies get weaker. And even gold goes down when markets go down. They’re very commiserate in the first six to eight weeks. That’s nothing new. But I am less sexy, giving investment advice now because my primary goal is preserving what I have not trying to grow. It doesn’t mean I don’t respect people who are trying to grow their wealth right now. These are very hard markets to do that in when they’re topping. And they’re not getting the support of the Fed yet, but they will. But that won’t come until after markets take a nosedive first. All right, that makes sense to you, Adam.
Adam Taggart 9:31
Absolutely. Very well said. And, you know, on every one of these videos, I make a little have a little diatribe near the end, where I recommend that most people watching work under the guidance of a good professional financial advisor in general, because most people don’t have the expertise that you were talking about there to play the long and short and do all the active management and they have real lives right? They got a bunch of other debts on there. Exactly, exactly. But you got to find a good financial advisor who understands To all the macro issues that you’ve been talking about here, and that actually really narrows the field a lot. So Matt, at the end of this video, we’re going to have one of our financial advisors Come on, they’re going to do a little bit of reaction to what you said. And then they’re going to talk about what the markets have done over the past week. These are the guys, the ones from new harbor, who are very focused on capital preservation, hedging. They’re currently positioned very much like the way that you just mentioned. So I did not know what your answer was going to be. When I asked you that question, I’m just going to let you know, you’re probably going to get a really nice fruit basket in the mail from the guys in new harbor. You couldn’t keep up any better. But But I agree with everything that you said there. From a principle standpoint. Well, look, we’ve gone, we’ve gone the hour, if you’ve got a minute or two left in you, I just want to get to the question I sort of mentioned once or twice earlier, which is, by the way, it’s always a total pleasure talking to you, Matt, thank you for another great discussion in so much time. But about the social side of this, right? So if we play out this arc, right, of continuously, every time we get into crisis that’s caused by the ever mounting debt that we have, right? I mean, we have our current fiat monetary system borrows money into existence. So the longer the current system runs, just mathematically, the more debt is going to be brought into existence, right? At some point that has a terminus, right, where it just doesn’t work for enough people, right. And you sort of give a nod to this earlier, which is, you know, Powell has this stealth, you know, secret real inflation plan that he’s going to plan on doing right where officially, if you look at it, it looks like he’s beating inflation, but in the real world, right? Using the old Volcker math, it’s actually negative real rates, and that’s helping the Fed kind of inflate away the debt, right. That will work up until the point, there’s enough people who just get pushed out of the prosperity zone, and it just doesn’t, they can’t get by anymore, right? And it’s sort of that you can pee on my leg, don’t don’t pee on my leg and tell me that it’s raining, right? And enough people say, I’m tired of the happy talk about how great you’re saying things are, I literally can’t feed my family this month. Right. And I think that this is sort of, again, a reflection of all of our Anthony success as a reflection that is a critical mass of people are getting to this stage. Right? How much longer we have to go, I don’t know could be years could be decades, right. But at some point, you get to a point there where the the majority of the populace just has no other option, except to say, this just isn’t working for me, we got to throw the bums out, and you have some sort of social pushback, some sort of social revolt. And it can be you know, we’ve seen the French Revolution, we saw what just happened two years ago in Sri Lanka, where like, basically the entire country showed up at the presidential palace and just drag the guy out. Right? Will it get that bad? Who knows? I don’t know. I’m not trying to be inflammatory. But do you see a path where we avoid that kind of social unrest? If on this current trajectory?
Matthew Piepenburg 13:11
Obviously, there’s a best case in a worst case, and and I’ll try my best to be an optimist. It’s hard for me since the cynic I am. But I think optimistically the the way to let out some of the pressure was if we had legitimate democratic system. And the pollyannish answer is let’s elect better representatives who are more blunt, honest and economically savvy than our predecessors. Let’s bring in people that really do have profiles encouraged and care more about their country than reelection, face austerity face entitlement cuts, face budget cuts, face military cuts, have better foreign policy, get us out of avoidable proxy wars, which we would have been a disaster for us in the world, bring in better elected officials and get us out of this deep state that I was talking about that Mike Lofgren wrote so brilliantly about. These are not conspiracy theories anymore. Who really is running? Who are the ideologues and the Neo cons left or right. We’re making policy if the DNC and the RNC can be reformed so that we can actually pick our official nominees rather than have, frankly, billionaires decide who they’re going to prop and then we get to vote for I think there are many Democrats like to see someone other than Biden, by the way, I think there are plenty of people that might want to see Robert Kennedy Jr. as an example. I’m saying we need to reform the system not claiming election for I’m just saying, let us actually pick better leaders because the the propped up versions were being handed as an insult to us. It’s Dumb and Dumber, left and right. We get mediocrity or mediocrity, when we have to have third party candidates who can’t beat the system who can’t get the legacy be who can’t get the financing. We don’t have a democracy. When you have four lobbyists for every elected member of house influencing the decisions of our quote unquote representatives. That is not democracy. See, so we’d have to have the optimistic cases we get real leaders so we don’t need pitchforks and three locka and revolutions in January sixes and broken frustration that just emits itself out. We need more. I mean, Vivek Yama sama. This is one of the guys Robert Kennedy Jr. is one of the guys. These are smart guys. Whatever you think they’re smart. Rahm Assamese, I mean, he’s a classic Yale Law School guy can see the way his mind works. He’s smart. He’s evidence based. He can take both sides. He’s got such confidence and such wisdom. It’s another billionaire running for office, but I’ll take it. It’s smarter and better. Or Robert Kane, Jr. There’s I guess I’m saying one way to solve this is better, really intelligent, economically savvy, blunt speaking leadership. We haven’t seen that a long time. The negative side. And I’ve said this last time. And this is where I frankly lean to more pessimistically, because this is what history teaches me. And I’ve said it again, it’s a syllogism. Every time in history where you have a debt crisis, whether it’s a regime, an empire, a democracy, it’s always followed by a financial crisis. It then is followed by a currency crisis, or an inflation crisis, which is always followed by social unrest. And that social unrest is always responded by extreme centralization from the left or the right. And that’s what we’re seeing right now with mandates locked down censorship. cbdc I see a trend you know, the the silencing of dissent, the the guilty until proven innocent, the smear campaigns against mountain formation, the demonization of Tucker Carlson or Russell Brand, where Jordan Peterson left or right, what we’re seeing is mal information that Eric Weinstein talked about is such a threat to these broken, desperate ideologues in power that have destroyed our system through debt. And through worthless, expensive wars and trillions spent on alternative energy. It has not made us carbon neutral. These forces are preventing other voices and we’re seeing more centralization. That’s the other real risk when you have more centralization. That’s another way of stopping pitchforks. I think a safer way to stop pitchforks is to let us elect better, more informed people. Let’s actually hope that democracy and elections still works. As Churchill said, democracy is a mess is better than anything else. Right. I hope it still works. If we just get the same usual suspects in the next election, mediocre one versus mediocre two, we’re going to get the same again to stir up same saddle riding us right over a cliff, I think we need more than the AOCs of the world, the George Santos of the world, the come on Mitch McConnell, bless his heart, but the guy literally stopped speaking for a minute and his mouth dropped. That’s not leadership anymore. We don’t need to galvanize power to the point where we’re insulting each other. With leadership that needs to be replaced, left or right. We need I am agnostic, I want someone who’s blunt, who’s qualified, and most importantly, who is less interested in their reelection and more interested about rolling up their sleeves and doing the hard work of facing the financial realities this country faces. Right now, I’ve seen a lot of just platitudes, and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Adam Taggart 18:14
So however, whatever happens, best case scenario, worst case scenario, it’s likely to be messy. And it’s likely to be painful. One thing that I think is needed, and I think will be needed, like I think it will emerge eventually, I just don’t know, where in the process. And, you know, it could be at the very end, who knows? But is this sort of a borrowed from the Native Americans, right, but sort of the seven generations type thinking, right, where right now we’re always making sort of political decisions for what everybody needs right now. Right? Oh, you know, we’ve got this problem. So if people are suffering today, let’s do X, right? We need to shift to this mindset of, yes, we have current needs and issues as a populace. But but we are trying to leave a legacy to our progeny. Right. And, you know, what we’ve pursued for the past 40 years has basically been let’s just steal as much of our project ares prosperity and pose into today, right? You’re gonna need to have a shift around that, where we say, Look, we’re gonna have to leave a, you know, a chunk of it for tomorrow. And we are going to have to sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. I think that that’s what’s going to have to emerge at some point here, and it might be after, you know, the conflagration in the ashes, you know, cool, but, but at some point, I think it’s gonna need to emerge. Do you share that opinion?
Matthew Piepenburg 19:36
Yeah. And it’s another great quote by Eric Weinstein the other day is, the problem is a baby boomers don’t love their children. He meant that sarcastically, he says, we’re just putting bullet holes in all our life rafts. We’re trying to live for ourselves. We’re not thinking about the next generation. You know, we’re not we’re not that great generation of 44. And we’re not that generation is even able to suffer in the Rust Belt during the depression where we came together as coming Unity is where we came together as families, we’re splintered, and we’re divided. And as a country we can’t even unify on on many things, whether it’s foreign policy or whether it’s January 6, or whether it’s whether vaccines are safe or effective, we’re so divided. I don’t think BLM is the same as Martin Luther King, I think there’s you know, there’s, there’s there’s things that have changed for the worse. And there are many great leaders, black, white, straight, not straight, who would agree, we’ve got to find common ground that we’re not getting from our current crop of political leadership and a generation that is thinking more about itself than the next generation, and also a generation that is debating more on emotion than on facts. That’s what I like about feedback, for example, is evidence based Facts are stubborn things, you can have your own opinions, but not your own facts. I think we need to get down to facts, to compromise to cooperation. Again, these all sound pollyannish. I don’t know if that’s possible. For this generation, there’s so much anger, there’s so much division, there’s so much me first, from our musical lyrics to our political thinking to our entitlements. I don’t know if that’s possible, if the generation is willing to actually sacrifice now for the next generation, especially if it’s not their immediate generation, if we’re thinking what’s best for our country, and if we had a notion of what that vision is, we have a chance. It’s very hard to imagine right now given this the fragmentation the fractured nature of our society, the wealth inequality, the genuine and understandable resentment among so many different groups in the society that feel marginalized, or feel entitled, or feel left out. It’s a it’s a pell mell of psychological, financial, political and philosophical forces dividing this country that we need the type of people that really can find a common denominator a common common spinal column in this country or in the system that we can all agree on. I don’t know that sounds so pollyannish. To me right now, we need truly heroic, blunt speaking leadership. And we need a truly heroic and blunt speaking population willing to come together like we’ve done many times in the past when we had a good fight to fight. Right now, we don’t even know where to look.
Adam Taggart 22:10
Well, I’ll leave you with this bit of guarded optimism, which is talking to Neil Howe, you know, the demographer the fourth, turning around this, you know, sort of asked him, I said, Look, you know, I look back at all these other tumultuous times in history, and there were these leaders that emerged, right, who were great leaders, and they had this platform that everybody could rally around, right? You just, you just can’t be against everything you actually have to be for something that’s constructive, that people realize is good that they want to fight for. Right? And I said, like, I’m not seeing that many right now. Is it just that we have a really bad crop this year of leaders over this time of leaders? Or have they things just not gotten so bad that they haven’t emerged yet? And he said, it’s much more the latter, he said, most of the leaders that come out during these periods are very reluctant. They weren’t people that sort of sought the role. And it’s like the pressure of you know, the earth that forces coal into becoming a diamond, right, where it just once the pressures get hard enough, the leaders do emerge. Never the cost of getting the great leader is the pain that precedes it. Right? So you know, things may need to get a lot worse before we get some, some better leaders. But Neil was actually surprisingly confident that from what he’s seen repeating back in history is that they will come. It’s just maybe going to be at a pretty high price.
Matthew Piepenburg 23:29
I hope he’s right. Look, you know, there’s a famous quote by Lenin you know, I didn’t create the revolution, I just followed it. I just captured it. There goes the crowd, I’ll follow can be it can be great leaders or dangerous leaders that can be demagogues, or there can be Gandhi’s or you know, Kenny,
Adam Taggart 23:46
sorry to interrupt, but just let you respond. Peter Atwater who I was interviewing at the same time around this year, his big worry about social inequality is what could happen in terms of who we do elect to address it. Because he said, If you stand out in the cold rain long enough, you’ll get in the car with anyone.
Matthew Piepenburg 24:02
Yeah, yeah. Well, that’s instead look at Franco or, you know, look at Mussolini. Look at Hitler. Look at Lenin look at style. In other words, in moments of weakness and fissures and desperation, some real dangerous characters can come in, or you can get some great leaders. To your point. It’s the ones who almost have no choice but to do it because they want to do it because they have to, they don’t want to. And again, I’m not trying to push RFK Jr. But God bless him. He doesn’t need the money. He doesn’t need the fame. He certainly isn’t arrogant, vain. He actually I truly sincerely believes he’s worried about this country. He comes from a father who was assassinated an uncle who was assassinated, he has risked he’s already had threats on his own life. He can’t even get airtime on the legacy media. He I don’t agree with everything he says. But one thing I know what I strongly believe is he’s sincere. Whatever he says may be His truth, but I know he means it. He’s not just filling air to fill air. He has a genuine conviction. That’s refreshing. Do others candidates have it lesser or more? I don’t know. And you know, I’m not sure. But I think someone like that a version of that is refreshing. I mean, even Cornell West is running. He’s another extreme. He was my professor at Harvard. My favorite professor, my favorite man, I think he’s, he’s, I don’t agree with everything he says either. And I’ll say this about Cornell West, he believes it. And he’s, he’s smart as a whip, and he has 100% passion, that kind of passion, whether it’s Cornel West or Robert Kennedy, Jr, or Vivek Ramaswamy. Because I think Vivec is sharp as a tack. I mean, I’ve seen this kind of kid in classrooms before he’s dangerously smart. And I’d be excited to see any of those three would be better than any of the usual suspects we have right now. But again, do we get great leadership? Or do we get demagogues that’s the real? That’s the That’s the scary point, you know, do we get demagogues? Or do we get, you know, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison’s and Thomas Paine’s and you know, John Adams is,
Adam Taggart 26:00
let’s pray for the ladders. Yeah, let’s play for that. No matter what happens, you know, it’s going to take a long time, but you will have many, many bites at this apple coming on this program to discuss, Matt, thanks for giving us so much time. So appreciate it. Great discussion. As always, for folks that have really enjoyed the discussion, maybe this is the first video of you that they’ve seen, and they’re getting introduced to you. Where can they go to learn more about you and your work?
Matthew Piepenburg 26:26
Our URL is gold switzerland.com. We’re Matterhorn asset management. And all of my articles and interviews are posted on on that website. And it talks about our service. Yeah, we’re we’re really about wealth preservation. Our minimums are very high. But we talk about gold for all audiences, you know, but we privately store physical gold and silver outside of the banking system in jurisdictions other than your home country, in the safest vault in the world, because we’re about wealth preservation and currency risk. And that’s why we have a singular very singular focus. But anything that I’m thinking about or writing about can be found there. And my partner and colleague, Egon von Grier’s, who is an iconic figure in the precious metal space, his articles and interviews are there as well. So you can get a you can get a very good education on precious metals on that website as well.
Adam Taggart 27:18
All right. Well, folks, look, if you’re interested in hearing more about Matt’s thoughts, definitely go there. Matt doesn’t give a ton of interviews. So Matt, I really appreciate you coming on this channel. And folks, you know, if you if you’d like to see Matt, come back on his channel more often. Please do his favorite. Let us know in the comment section below. But I think the I think already know it’s going to be strong enough, Matt, that you’ve got an open invitation to come here. Anytime that you’ve got an important message you want to get out.
Matthew Piepenburg 27:42
I always enjoyed Adam. It really is a genuine pleasure. It’s a good informal conversation. That’s great. Necessary.
Adam Taggart 27:48
All right. Well, look, thanks so much for coming on, buddy. Can’t wait to have you back on again soon. Okay, take care. All right. Well, now’s the time when the program will be bringing the lead partners from new harbor financial one of the endorsed advisory firms by Wealthion. I’m joined today by lead partner, Mike Preston. John loader has the week off. Mike, great to see you very curious to hear your reactions to Matt’s interview there. Matt gave a long, many ways, sort of diatribe or litany of a lot of the issues. I know you guys that new harbor, and you personally are pretty passionate about. And as I sort of joked, in the near the end of the interview there, he basically gave you guys about the best setup, I think anyone could have given you guys given your approach to investing in capital management. And it actually in many ways how your portfolio is currently allocated. So what were your key takeaways?
Mike Preston 28:42
Well, thanks, Adam. I really liked that talk from from Matt. Heat speaks the same language that we do, he pulls no punches on criticizing the Fed and other central banks. We agree broadly with his sentiments here in that he says a hard landing is here enough with the with the debate about whether we have a hard landing or soft landing. We’re in a hard landing right now, the policies and the methods that are being used right now, our emergency methods and procedures. And we’ve been living in this really for 15 years. Probably a little bit more than that. But certainly since the 2008 financial crisis, it’s been just an ever increasing amount of liquidity and debt issuance, and more and more and more, and there really is no plan B. It’s only this image that talks about it being like the global Truman Show. You really wonder if you’re crazy or not. Are you seeing things right? Is the data Correct? Is the data ever going to mean anything? You know, we have we have valuations that are beyond the most extreme in history. We’ve got Shiller PE ratios up in the mid 30s. If you adjust them for margins, we’re in the 40s We’ve got a debt situation that is unsustainable. Matt talks about one The debt to GDP gets above 120%. Really, you can’t grow your way out on the problem, you have just a few different choices, you have to basically cut spending by 40%. Do nothing have more bank failures, that type of thing over time. Or, you know, lastly, there’s the Magic Mouse click that he talked about the magic mouse click. And this is what our central bankers have opted to do, it’s probably what they’re going to do in the future, they’ve proven that they don’t really have any other plan. And I can’t say that I’m happy about it. But the Fed now has some ammunition, as Matt talked about, there’s ammo and in both in both weapons, and that federal funds rate is up in the five and a half or so. And there’s actually a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet down to, you know, from 10 trillion at its highest, it’s eight point something now. So there’s a tiny, tiny drop in the balance sheet, which would give them give the Fed some ammunition to pivot. But we agree with Matt, that they’re not going to pivot until there’s some market crash, I heard Matt say that, he thinks we might see a 30 to 40% Drop in the market before the Fed pivots, we completely agree. And, you know, I’ve been on record to say that I think this market could trade more than 50% below where we are now. Or even two thirds below the all time high in January of 2022. We could see sub 2000 on the s&p and still not be at fair value or still not be undervalued, we might be at more, we might be closer to fail at fair value if we were below 2000. So just a couple more things. And then I’ll pause because I’ve got so many notes. Matt talks a lot about how in society, we have cynicism and distrust of the CES of the system. We’ve got young people saying that the or feeling like the boomers have taken all of the opportunity. And we have had the largest wealth transfer, I think, in modern history because of these policies. And it’s not a good thing. So we try to talk about the ills of central bank policy and how, you know, these types of focuses are going to hurt our future. Certainly have heard our markets, we don’t have free markets. And sounds like a broken record. I know a lot of times because we’ve been talking about it for years. But it was very refreshing to hear Matt talk about it. So I’ll take a pause there.
Adam Taggart 32:40
Yeah, I think during the live premiere of part one, with Matt, and the live chat, you know, there are a lot of people in the live chat who were saying, you know, hey, thank goodness, someone’s actually saying, you know, what I’ve been thinking people really appreciate it is ability to give voice to I think a lot of the the narratives that are running inside, you know, I think the average sane person’s mind, but they don’t get talked about on, you know, in the media, which was a big part of Matt’s mental point there. Alright, so So anyways, you know, Matt talked a lot about I mean, at the end of the day, it always comes down to debt, right? We’ve got way too much debt. History has shown that every time a nation a country, a society has gotten, you know, overly indebted. they’re faced with that choice that you mentioned there earlier, right. It’s basically either austerity, or you get to sacrificing your currency. And he said, you know, invariably, always without exception. In the end, it’s always the currency that is sacrificed. And I think that’s because the math is cruel, right, you get to a point where implementing the austerity is so painful, that no politician is ever going to get elected to do it. But also humans being who they are, you know, no politician is going to avoid the siren sound of, of money creation, because it kicks the can off tomorrow, right? And eventually, you get to a point where tomorrow arrives and you can’t avoid the repercussions. But at that point in time, wait, you wait too late to have salvage the system anyways. Right. And so Matt’s basically saying we’re seeing history repeat right now. And so, you know, that’s why he’s so confident about the longer term arc of how this process is going to go right, which is largely currency destruction, more inflation, eventually, at some point in the future hyperinflation. And I believe Mike, I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but I believe you probably concur with him in that that longer term view. Now of course, that’s that’s a outlook that you know, Matt and others may have a lot of confidence in. But they don’t know the timing and they don’t necessary really knows the exact trajectory of the path. So, you know, as Matt and I talked about briefly, you know, you can have deflationary impulses and corrections on the way to that, that long term endpoint. And so you can’t just necessarily positioned today for the long term ark of okay, you know, the fiat currencies are going to be worth a lot less going forward. So I’m going to park in these assets. Because the problem is, is you can get wiped out along the way during, you know, the zigs and zags as we go along this process. I do want to ask you in just a few minutes about what’s going on in the markets right now, because we’re seeing a lot of weakness in the markets here. And we may, we may be seeing, you know, one of these impulses come along here where, you know, maybe they’re maybe the correction that sort of started the summer that we thought was over, maybe begins to build steam back up again, we’ve got the dollar the US dollar, at an all time high for the year. It’s been an absolute tear, since mid July. We’ve got US Treasury rates up north of 4.5% right now. And just to really stir the pot. JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon came out and said, You know, I could see interest rates go into 7%. And I think investors need to prepare for I mean, it’s, I laugh, it’s more of a gallows humor laugh, but like 7%, I just, I don’t know what the world would look like, sadly, today under 7% interest rates, because I just don’t think the system can hold together for very long during that time. So we’d love to get some of your thoughts on here, Mike, because you as a financial advisor, you are a steward of client capital. Right. And so I know you guys are favorable gold and whatnot. Which, of course, is Matt’s really big trade for the long time. You know, the long arc devolution of currency purchasing power, but you’ve got to keep your clients you know, solvent and protected along the way. So you’ve got to prepare for these price dislocations in the market. Maybe some of these disinflationary or deflationary downdrafts maybe return to a bear market in the financial markets. So, with all that, how are you guys preparing for all this right now?
Mike Preston 37:23
Yeah, I’ll respond to that in a couple of different from a couple of different angles, Adam, I mean, it’s it’s been a maddening 15 years or 10 years, let you know, let me just say that that all of the things we’re talking about today, you could easily talk about 10 years ago, and many of us were, it’s just that things could have gotten more extreme. And that’s the common complaint that people would say about anyone that tries to be tactical, is that well, you can’t time the market. So just join them. The problem is that everyone’s joined them at a higher valuation that we’ve than we’ve ever seen. And there’s no mathematical way to make positive returns in the next 10 or 15 years from these levels, we have to all hope that this time is different, we have to believe in magical money printing, and we have to believe that that will persist. And so I think now more than ever, in the last at least 100 plus 100 years, at least, really being forced to pick a side here, you believe that this is some new paradigm, or you basically, you know, you basically say that this isn’t right, and you walk away from the game, to some extent. And you know, what Matt’s talking about there is, to some extent walking away from the game, being patient putting your money in gold, silver, other real assets. It’s very aligned with what we’ve been talking about. We have for many years said that this game is, is not free or fair or a real market much anymore. And therefore we’ve been very, very cautious. And we’ve advised our clients to invest five or 10% of their assets in gold and silver. I do believe that what we’ve witnessed here was a market top and January 4 of 2022. In the s&p and I will start to share some charts in a minute, just talk about that. But I think that we’ve seen the largest blow off top in history post COVID. And it only stands to reason that we’re seeing one of the largest topping processes ever. And I think I’ll start by at this moment sharing some charts so we can just talk through them. So the first one that’s coming up here is just going to be the s&p 500. This is the s&p 500 on a weekly basis, and it’s just a typical candlestick chart. I’ll go to the month actually first and then come back here. So this is the post COVID Blow off top that I talked about that took us to the most extremely overvalued level in history. And then in 2022, we had a very contained decline, followed by a 45 degree bounce off the October low. I believe that this recent swing high is a counter trend bounce or a bear market rally or if you’re using Elliott Wave type analysis, it would be a wave to rally. And I think there will, what we’re seeing now is a an acceleration of the next move or wave down, that will bring us pretty quickly down to about 4100. I think. Now, nothing’s guaranteed in technical analysis, but this is what it looks like on a on a weekly chart. And I’ll admit that right here on a weekly chart, this looked like a cup and handle that was consolidating, and we were at risk for for if we had one big up week, we would have a breakout from the cup and handle and then potentially one more big blow off top, we made some changes to our hedges, we actually closed our inverse hedges and replaced them with an at the money put option a couple of weeks ago, and that would limit our losses if we got that blow off top, and yet still keep our hedge in place. What’s actually happened as we broken down here in the short term, I’ll go to the daily chart. And we have completed what’s called a head and shoulders formation, this line here, this denotes the head and shoulders, this would be the left shoulder the head and then a complex or double right shoulder. When we close below here, we confirmed and if if technical analysis were to work in this case, we’d come right down to about 4100. I believe there’s much greater potential downside moves after that. So a couple more points I’d like to point out and then and then pause the Russell tooth, so the s&p is up around 11% year to date. And I’m going to stop this share. So I can share one more thing here. The s&p is up about 11% year to date, and show the slide here. Can you see this one. Now this is basically showing the s&p is up 11%. The Equal weighting index is up. Basically, well, the equal weighting index is basically flat, and The Magnificent Seven is eight of 81%. So the markets are pretty flat, the s&p itself is up only around 11%. And the equal weighted index is flat on the year.
Adam Taggart 42:39
Right meaning it’s The Magnificent Seven that are doing all of the lifting for the indices.
Mike Preston 42:44
That’s exactly right. So I’ve got to go right back to the the s&p here just to show you that I believe that we’re going to see a breakdown here to 4100. And then further, the Russell 2000 as well, is flat on the year. Here’s the Russell 2000. This dotted line is the beginning of the year. The Russell 2000 has been weaker in the last couple of months and it is flat on the year. So in Meanwhile, our short term indicators have reversed into bearish, bearish mode are telling us to be cautious. And when we adjusted our hedge a couple of weeks ago, we actually raised our cash position to about 50, just over 50%. So we’re about 5050 to 52%. Depending upon the actual account, there’s some variation in accounts that’s in short term treasury bills earning over 5%. We’ve got a total equity exposure of about 20% 15% in emerging markets, 5% and industrials. But 15% of that is hedged away with the put option that we just talked about. I will stop sharing here for a moment. Actually, before I do that, let’s take a quick look at gold because you mentioned gold. This is a chart of gold that I talked about over and over again. And it’s like watching paint dry. It’s really really boring. And you know, gold has been stuck below $2,000 An ounce here for a while. But on this 20 year chart, you can see this giant cup and handle for my formation followed by a triple top. Triple tops don’t usually stick so I really think we’re going to break out to the upside here. But in the near term, it’s been frustrating. You know, gold is weak again, today, we’re counting around 1900 down about 20 something dollars or so today it looks like but still, you know, I think that Matt gives the right message. Patience, get out of the market hold cash hold gold. And you know, lastly short term I think that we’re starting to see some reason to believe that we may finally get an acceleration to the downside on the s&p, that head and shoulders formation has confirmed we’ll see what happens in the next week or too, but, you know, I can tell you volatility has been low worry has been low. Everyone kind of thinks this markets just going to keep going forever and the Fed is magic. But I think that’s, you know, a perfect type of complacency that’s extremely, extremely dangerous here.
Adam Taggart 45:16
Well, it is, for many reasons we’ve talked in the past, but but one of the reasons why it is particularly in a market environment, like you just showed us is, you know, market reversals happen with a change in sentiment, where it’s, you know, at the margin, all of a sudden people going from being net bullish to net bearish, right. And we’ve had a lot of, of complacency or optimism in the market, right. We talked about how, at the beginning of the year, everybody was so so into the fear side of things, and was so sure that we were going to have a recession early this year. And then that morphed into a well, maybe we’re going to have a soft landing, and then gosh, we’re probably not going to have any landing at all. Right. And that’s flying, you know, in the face of increasing amount of data as Matt went on his diatribe about. But, you know, you just showed us the chart of the s&p how it’s actually really, you know, kind of starting to weaken a fair amount here, we’ve got that confirmed head and shoulders, if we indeed crossed that Rubicon where people are no longer net bullish and they’re now net bearish, right? That’s when you can get, you know, fear coming back in the system and really driving the market action, right. So we’re already seeing the markets weak, and like you said, equal weighted, the market’s flat, it’s actually even slightly down for the year, right. You know, if all of a sudden we start seeing people start taking cards off the table, and they start taking some money out of those Magnificent Seven stocks, the bottom could fall pretty darn quickly here. Now, it’s interesting, because we’ve had a number of people on the program here recently talking about how markets tend to, you know, have one last gasp before a big correction happens, or you go into a recession. I think a real interesting debate is, you know, are we still is that last gasp ahead of us? Right? And is what’s going on right now a little bit of a bear trap where Bear said, Okay, this is it. And then all of a sudden, the markets, you know, surprise everybody and go back up again, and steamroll the bears? Or is the action that we saw running into the summer to the July highs was that the last gasp right? I ended up TBD. But we’ll we’ll be watching it really closely from here. I just want to get back to two of the things I mentioned there. Yeah. So first, let’s talk about the US dollar strength for a second. So that’s obviously going to be weighing on gold a bit. Right, you were showing that gold was down actually now to about 1900. So gold has kind of been taken into licks of late here. And that the increasing US dollar price doesn’t help because doesn’t have to be they sometimes will trade apart from each other. But much more often than not gold in the US dollar trade. Inversely, also a strengthening US dollar tends to weigh on equities, in large part because it’s harder for companies to sell their products to foreign markets. When the dollar gets overly strong, right. We saw a lot of that going on, you know, a year plus ago, and we may now be back in that territory. I mean, the dollar is over 106. Now, right? So that can’t be helpful for markets. And then we’ll talk about interest rates in just a moment because obviously, high interest rates aren’t good for the consumer and good for markets in the long run, either. But looking at the dollar, Mike, wait, what are you thinking these days?
Mike Preston 48:34
Yeah, I want to bring up a chart of the dollar. So we can talk through that. We agree with Brent Johnson, and the whole dollar milkshake theory that the dollar will probably get stronger in the near term, you know, particularly in an economic crisis, or market crash, there’s probably going to be a flood into the dollar. I don’t think it deserves it. But I think that’s likely what’s going to happen. And I think we’ve said that for a long time, here’s a monthly chart of the dollar, I always like to really step back and take a big picture. Look, it’s easy to get stuck in the noise and really confused. The big picture is the dollar had a nice big kind of blow off, you know, vertical move last year, and then a big pullback. And so, you know, we went to around 115 or so, I believe, you know, I believe that Brent is right, like I mentioned before, and that we’re probably going to go to a new high in the dollar, you know, maybe 120 or plus or even north of that, that particularly if we get some kind of market meltdown. And there’s a lot of worry in the world and everyone’s going to have to go to the dollar. It’s the whole Euro dollar thing and the many 10s of trillions of dollars of collateral that are out there. So longer term. You know, I think that, that there’s a lot of reasons to be concerned about the dollar, the recent BRICS summit in South Africa on August 24. And the fact that you know, the Fed has to choose, you know, the Fed has to choose and you know, we agree with Matt that the Fed is gonna probably choose the Magic Mouse Button. But they’re not going to do that before some kind of market drop or crash. And they’re not going to do that before some kind of crisis. So when they say I would think the most likely thing is $1 will go higher in the near term, and then longer term and so maybe between now and two years from now the dollar might go higher. And then longer term, you might see the a long 10 year decline in the dollar. That doesn’t mean that gold can’t go up at the same time, it’s pretty impressive. That gold is actually doing okay, even with the dollar moving from roughly 100 to 106. If I go back to the gold chart here, you’ll see, I mean, gold is hung in there pretty well. You know, it’s one two is about seven months here of this consolidation with a slight down bias. But it really hasn’t taken it on the chin too much as the dollar has had the sharp move. If I go to the weekly chart now, you’ll see that this dollar has been what do we have here, basically 510 11 Straight up weeks 11 Straight up weeks, I can’t find another winning streak that’s quite as good as that. So the dollar is actually quite strong here. You know, in particularly with interest rates of a five and a half percent on short term T bills a lot of money is flooding in. And we think it’s a good opportunity for people to just sit back and you know, sit back and wait. You know, as I mentioned earlier, over 50% of our model right now is in treasury bills, we don’t love that we don’t want to be there, we want to earn much more than that we want to earn 810 12% for our clients, but the s&p would have to be much lower than it is today to do that. So when
Adam Taggart 51:48
maybe not only because I just kind of bring this up here. I mentioned this earlier. You know, Jamie diamond says Americans are on an economic sugar high, right. And I think you know, Matt, and maybe the folks who interviewed this week with a great, and he’s urging clients to batten down the hatches and prepare for rates to hit 7%. So if he’s right there might you might be able to get 7% for your clients just by sitting in the safety of short term details.
Mike Preston 52:13
And we would be the first to admit that we’d want to do that for a big chunk. I don’t think that rates are gonna stay there. I don’t know. It’s amazing to me, I’m watching this. I’m watching the bond market. We haven’t talked much about bonds, but Bond, the bond markets been an absolute meltdown mode, complete capitulation, you know, in mortgage and that’s causing mortgage rates to go up mortgage rates are seven and a half to seven and three quarters yet home prices are hardly budging. It’s quite a perplexing spot right now. We’re talking to clients all the time. And they’re like, What is going on? How is the market holding in there? I mean, the stock market is still where it was a year and a half ago, when the Fed started raising rates, yet bonds have lost nearly half their value. So something isn’t right. And you know, it’s our opinion that stocks are going to have to correct and frankly, the Fed needs them to correct and in a big way, so that they can do what they want to do.
Adam Taggart 53:07
Alright, so that’s kind of where I’m going. And then we’ll end on this, which is, you know, I remember Mike a year ago, a little over a year ago, having interviews with people, where we were talking about the Feds hiking regime, and they were like, there was no way the Feds gonna get above 3%. The Fed funds rate, they’re just like, there’s just no way the economy can’t take it, things will break down. But here we are at five and a quarter. Right. And I’ve talked a bit about this year about how, to a certain extent, the fiscal side of the equation has come to the rescue with all the deficit spending that Congress has been doing. I was talking to alphatech tlo. Yesterday. And he basically said that, that that is going to end. Basically, it’s ending now that the most of the funds that the administration had gotten approval to spend much of that spending is expiring. Now in October, it needs to be renewed, and certainly unclear whether it’s going to get renewed by a divided Congress right now. And of course, with an election year coming up, the Republicans probably do everything they can to stymie additional, additional stimulus from the administration. So if that’s true, if that supports, you know, getting pulled off of here, then the full gravitational force of those higher rates, you know, really can start manifesting on the economy. And if those rates continue to go higher, right, if diamonds correct, and we start getting 7% interest rates, I agree with you, I don’t think they can stay there for very long. I’m amazed the economy’s holding together at five and a quarter percent. I have no idea how it continues at 7%. And, again, I keep using this analogy of like turning up the force of gravity is interest rates go up. But I think the housing markets already a dead man walking. But boy, if we take interest rates up to 7%, I mean, that could really be I can’t see how that can’t be what fully breaks the housing market and really start sending prices plummeting. So it’s gonna be really interesting to see what happens from all that, of course, then the question will be, how much? How much will the Fed expend when it rides to the rescue, although I will say I’ve talked to a number of people recently who say, because the Fed is, is playing for its credibility here, it’s not going to pivot on a dime. If markets start going down hard, it’s going to wait until essentially, it’s got to wait for one of two things, it’s got to wait for inflation to be under its 2% target because Powell has been he’s put his reputation on the line. But that’s what I’m going to do. I’m going to keep going until inflation’s subdued, and for him subdued is below 2%. Or they think the Fed will will really only pivot once it has the air cover to do so because the world has shown up on its door begging the Fed to pivot. And so for that to happen, it’s going to take a fair amount of pain in the markets. So for those folks that are expecting the Fed just to to ride in at the first sign of market uncomfortableness. You know, folks have been talking to recently say, that should not be your default expectation, you actually should be expecting a fair amount of pain before the Fed, lets itself gets dragged, gets dragged back into stimulating if inflation is not below 2%, which doesn’t look likely anytime soon.
Mike Preston 56:39
Yeah, the Fed has too much power. Adam, I think that we all agree that with that, and they shouldn’t be the fourth arm or the fourth branch of the US government. But they are you know, they’ve got to be careful, you’re right, they need air cover so that they can return to return to you know, providing liquidity because without it the debt pile is not serviceable. I think that’s the easiest way to Matt’s whole thesis there. Right? Yeah, I mean, I could say it in one sentence. You know, that’s, that’s it. But they have to be careful because it’s, the set of conditions here could lead to an out of control situation where the crash is much worse than might be expected. And if that’s the case, then it may be clear that we’re we’re seeing the deflation of the third bubble in the last 25 years. And it could become clear that the Fed is the problem in the in the first place, you know, that the Fed creates bubbles, and they fix bubbles. And what happens in the meantime, is a lot of psychological stress on people. And, you know, also what happens in the meantime, is a vast amount of wealth. dispersion. That’s not, that’s not fair. So, you know, in a way, I hope that we have some kind of economic accident, I don’t want people to suffer, that’s for sure. But what I do want is a little more freedom in the markets and a little more talk and discourse about what our central banks are doing. And so, you know, in that light, I hope that we do see a down market, and I hope that we do see more discussion about what the Fed is doing. And you know, I know that Matt says that people talk like this are labeled Doomers or gold bugs. But, you know, I think that this is not really a free market that much. So I think it will be helpful. All right.
Adam Taggart 58:25
All right, folks. We’ll look, we’re gonna leave it there. Except Michael just asked if you guys made any trades recently in your portfolio that are worth flagging for folks.
Mike Preston 58:33
Yeah, I’m glad you asked. Adam, we haven’t. You know, we’ve been a full on defense for a number of weeks and even months, although a couple of months ago, there was some signs that that that said that we could get offensive, but that has been wiped away with this recent downturn in the last couple of weeks. So we’re still quite, you know, heavy and cash equivalents. We have made one adjustment this week that I’d like to point out TLT I mentioned earlier is a you know, has been getting has been getting hammered. And I might try to share the chart one last time quickly.
Adam Taggart 59:11
And if you can’t, I believe it’s below. It’s in the 80s now, right? Yeah. Tlt
Mike Preston 59:15
is right here at 842. All right, so we have actually just adjusted a hedge. We had a couple of different things going on with this, but it’s amazing how much this is sold off. Just go into the monthly chart look at March of last year when the Fed started. When the Fed started tightening, you know, we’ve lost 40 something percent from then we’ve lost over 50% from the high and you know all of this while the s&p is nearly hardly budged. And well, we didn’t enter TLT until after this big drop. Of course, it’s gotten worse from there. And we have used options a lot of different ways to to make the situation better but going to the weekly chart back here when we started to break down week took a 50% hedge on the position, we sold the October 106 calls. And with that money we bought the October 98 puts well, on this capitulation that we just had, we just took profit on the 98. Put, and we don’t know where the bottom actually is here. But we actually sold the 98. Put, and I’m just going to change this to 92. And we re bought the 92. Put. So effectively, we took some of this profit out, and we move this put down to 92 on that half. So the position still a loser, we’re fully aware of that the position is down. But we want people to understand that we have maximum of 15% position on that’s now seven and a half or has been for quite some time, because the put was in the money. And on the other half, were selling calls on it pretty religiously to pull an income and we maintain put protection on half of it still even here. So at some point, I believe this is going to bounce mightily, and it’s going to be I think we’ll look back and say that we were able to sit through it a little bit better with the option hedges. So we did just make that adjustment this week. And thanks for asking if we made any changes.
Adam Taggart 1:01:17
All right, thanks for walking me through that. Because I it’s super important for people to see how a professional financial advisor actually manages their position. So when you want to be an instrument, let’s say TLT, right, you’re not just buying it and closing your eyes and crossing your fingers. You know, you are using options not as a speculative tool. But as a risk mitigation tool where you are buying downside insurance. And it sounds like some of that’s already paid off for you. Right. And so yes, you wish TLT had gone up. But it went down enough that you’re putting in the money. And so you know that insurance is subsidizing your loss, which is which is great for you. So your clients are experiencing a much lower loss than they would have before. And along the way you’re selling calls. So that’s bringing in income, right. And your risk there is that TLT goes off to the races suddenly, and you know, before you can get those calls covered. And, you know, all that happens is you miss out on some of the excess upside. But it’s all it’s all goodness, basically for your clients. So. So I just want to I just want to make folks if you if you didn’t follow what Mike said, then go back and rewatch it because it’s really useful to show you how you can still be in a position and still have the vast majority of the upside exposure to it. But you can have really important downside exposure, if you’re using hedges intelligently the way that the guys that new harbor does. Okay, great. Well, in wrapping up from there, two quick things before we go, one, just want to remind folks that the October 21 Fall online conference for Wealthion is coming up the faculty is the best we’ve ever had. And it just keeps getting better and better. Just had Jeff Clark sign on. So he’s going to give his presentation on his preferred precious metals, mining companies. And we didn’t get a chance to talk that much about it this week, Mike, but you know, we did before the camera was rolling, where, you know, you reiterated, wow, they’re still really beaten up here. And there’s some great values emerging. And that, you know, if and when that space catch fires, there’s a lot of great money to be made. Jeff is going to be sharing, you know, his specific companies, as well as you know, specific tickers and whatnot that you can go investigate. So anyways, to learn more about the conference and register for it, go to wealthion.com/conference. And as a reminder, if you do so quickly, you can still catch the our lowest discounted price, which is I think it’s 29% off of the full ticket price. And if you’re an alumnus of our previous conferences, go check out your email inbox, you should have an email from me in there somewhere with a discount code that’ll give you an additional 15% discount to that. Lastly, and I think Mike did a really good job of presenting it this week. And Matt did a phenomenal job of you know, given everything that’s going on right now, given that we are here, we very well may be in a hard landing and just not admitting it to ourselves yet. If you’re an average person trying to figure out how do I not become How does my portfolio not become collateral damage to all of this, highly recommend you work with a professional financial advisor who’s good number one, but also number two very importantly, takes into account all of the macro issues that Matt and I talked about, and that Mike and I talked about here, if you’ve got a good one who’s doing that for you, and then implementing that along the way and keeping you well informed, great. You should stick with them. They’re very rare. If you don’t have one you’d like a second opinion from when it does, maybe even Mike and his team there at new harbor. Then consider scheduling a free consultation with one of the financial advisors that Wealthion endorses. To do that. Just fill out the short email@example.com only takes you a couple seconds. You consultations are totally free. There’s no commitment to work with these guys. It’s just a free public service that these financial advisors offer to help as many people as possible position as prudently as possible in advance of a number of the things that we talked about here. Mike, thanks so much, buddy. Folks, if you enjoy having Matt on the program, want to have him come back on as soon as he’s able to, please do me a favor, showing your support for that by hitting the like button, then clicking on the red subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Thanks for joining me for this week. Mike. Look forward to seeing you again next week, I’ll let you have the last word as we walk folks out here
Mike Preston 1:05:38
is glad to be here. Glad to be here. We really think things are coming to a culmination. We’ve learned a lot of humility over the years though, so I don’t know for sure. But it’s going to matter at some point. And it’s probably going to matter in a very surprising way, when people least expect it. And we’re seeing short term signs of caution here. So be be cautious. And if you want to talk we’re here to talk, whether you’re a client or not. We’re happy to have a chat with you and give you our our best unbiased advice. So thanks for having us on out and we really appreciate it. And thanks, everyone for watching.
Adam Taggart 1:06:14
All right, thanks so much, Mike. See you next week. Everyone else thanks so much for watching. If you’d like to schedule a consultation with one of the financial advisors at new harbor financial simply go to wealthion.com. These consultations are completely free, and there are no strings attached. The good folks at new harbor was simply answer any questions you have about your investment goals or your portfolio and give you their best advice given their latest market outlook. They’re willing to do this because they care about protecting people’s wealth. And because Wealthion has connected them with so many thoughtful investors just like you over the past decade. We started doing this because so many people have approached us in frustration looking for a solution because they’re feeling out of alignment, or downright ridiculed by the standard financial advisors who have been managing their money. You know, the type, the kind that just pushes all of your money into the market, scoffed at the idea of owning gold. And when you bring up concerns about the market sky high valuations, they say don’t worry, the market will always take care of you. For many of the reasons discussed in today’s video, we think this is one of the most challenging and treacherous times in history for investing. We strongly believe that today’s investors are best served working in partnership with a conscientious professional financial advisor who understands the risks in play. Now we’re agnostic, which professional advisor you work with, as long as they’re good. If you’re already working with one, that’s fantastic, stick with them. But if you don’t are having trouble finding one you respect or trust, then consider talking to John and Mike and the team at new harbor. Now for those about to ask yes, there’s a business relationship between Wealthion and new harbor, which we’ve put in place to make sure everything is handled according to SEC regulations. All the details on this are clearly provided on the wealthion.com website. Also, it’s important to note that new harbor is able to work with US citizens, green card holders, and those with existing assets in the USA, but for regulatory reasons they aren’t able to take on non US clients. All right, with all that said, if you’d like some insight and guidance on how to protect your wealth during this unprecedented time in the markets, go to wealthion.com to schedule your free consultation with the good folks at new harbor. Thanks for watching.