Could Bitcoin hit $250K next year? Tom Lee, Co-Founder & Head of Research at Fundstrat, believes it’s possible, and he explains why in this must-watch Speak Up interview with Anthony Scaramucci. From the crypto market’s next big leap to the S&P 500’s climb to 15,000 by 2030, Lee shares bold predictions backed by compelling data. Discover how AI, smaller-cap stocks, and Bitcoin will drive further gains and why these trends are opportunities you can’t afford to overlook. With insights into inflation hedges, market cycles, and geopolitical uncertainty, this interview is your roadmap for 2025 and beyond.
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Tom Lee 0:00
Bitcoin one year from now, I think is something around 250 250,000
Anthony Scaramucci 0:14
Joining us now is the legendary Tom Lee, who is? I mean, you get great ratings on this show. This is speak up with Anthony Scaramucci, but it could end up becoming speak up with Tom Lee, because when I bring you on, we get way better ratings that I’m doing this myself, but you are the chief investment officer of fundstrat and the head of research. Is that correct? Tom, did I got that right? Yes, that’s right, all right. And but you are also, I can see around corners, which is very hard to do. It’s impossible to do on Wall Street, but it’s very hard to do in life, but you’re doing it exceptionally well on Wall Street. So I follow you. The people that listen to the show, follow you. Let’s get right into it. Tom, what the hell is going on in the stock market? We’re at an all time high. There’s a lot of curmudgeonly value people that are flashing warning signals. Let me give you one of them. There’s a gentleman by the name of Warren E Buffett who has accumulated something like $325 billion of cash. He’s at the highest cash level as a percentage of his portfolio in 20 plus years. So what do you see? Is it different from what they see?
Tom Lee 1:38
You know, I think that markets are at, I think, like a friction point right now, because we’ve had two really good back to back year gains. I mean, anyone holding at the start of 2023 is up nearly 50% since then. So I think for anyone looking forward, the risk reward next year is quite different. So I can really sympathize with someone raising cash, like Warren Buffett. Um, part of his selling he had been doing it throughout the 2024 may have been in anticipation of changes, potential changes in tax policy, like paying a capital gains tax increase. But that being said, if we, if we didn’t look at the level of improvement of stocks for last two years, but just over the next 12 months, looked at what lays ahead, I think someone can be optimistic, because we know, the Fed is cutting interest rates, but at a time when the business cycle is still healthy. So in the in the seven times the Fed did cut while we weren’t in a recession, you know, markets actually did really well over that period as cost of money falls. And the second is that I think some uncertainties have been cleared up. I think so much of the summer, our clients were sitting on cash and getting nervous, and you could see it in the vix index, because they didn’t know who was going to be president. But now that election is behind us, and while I don’t think anyone knows what policies are going to emerge, because there’s a lot of radical policies being offered, including cutting government spending, etc. It, I think it’s going to create opportunities for many companies. And I’d say that the way we would sort of look at that is we’d want to be looking at smaller cap stocks, because they’ve really been held back the most. And the third thing, I guess, is constructive, is I as by the measures of, like, how people have deployed cash, it’s still a pretty cautious market, because margin debt hasn’t risen for five months now. So that’s not typically a sign of euphoria. It’s usually a sign of exactly what you said, people getting cautious. And even like investor sentiment, like aI actually has fallen away. So it’s not we’re at not that level, like where people are so bullish that you have to start to turn the bearish.
Anthony Scaramucci 4:11
Okay, so we’re still bullish. Older, older people are concerned, because they see some of these metrics that they historically have worked, but there’s a lot of stuff, innovation and so forth going on, which may elongate the bull market. Fair to say,
Tom Lee 4:27
Yes, that’s right. And I think when it comes to earnings, and saying earnings are extended, the one thing that has happened this year is earnings have been beating by a huge margin. You know, even third quarter earnings have beat by 5% so I I think that the trajectory of profits is still better than most people have modeled, and that’s a source of positive surprise.
Anthony Scaramucci 4:52
So you were very helpful with this. So thank you for it. I We’re about to publish this. Hopefully you’ll make my book party. Uh, Michael, helped me write it. You helped me write it. Max on biz Max helped me write it. There’s a whole group of people that are in here, but you are genius level at predictions. Okay, so let’s imagine on the show Bitcoin, it was in the mid 50s to high 60s range. You said, we’re going to 100,000 I said, What are we getting? 100,000 you said, by the end of the year. Okay, yeah. So why did you say that? What did you see, and what do you see for Bitcoin over the next six months?
Tom Lee 5:37
Part of the reason we have stayed constructive on Bitcoin is the price is following closely the prior having cycles. Having cycle, for your viewers, is when the block reward gets cut in half. That happened earlier this year, so there’s a reduction in new supply and the sweet spot of that price gain, as supplies cut starts to happen towards the end of this year and then into next year, and I think that that has supported why we expected Bitcoin to be 100,000 and over the next 12 months, I think something over 250,000 possible, but maybe highly probable based on just this following this price cycle. The second reason I think Bitcoin has maybe more upside than that is because the new administration is running, has run on a pro Bitcoin platform. And I think that the possibility of the US not only legitimizing Bitcoin, but make making it a strategic reserve asset, I think raises the raises what would be the possible price scenarios for Bitcoin, because if the US government, as they intend, ultimately gets to a million Bitcoin, they’ll be the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world, and they exert enormous positive influence on legitimizing Bitcoin. And maybe I would just add to that, it’s almost like taking a playbook from MicroStrategy, because MicroStrategy has proven that using Bitcoin as a balance sheet asset has really created a lot of value for MicroStrategy shareholders.
Andrew Brill 7:27
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Anthony Scaramucci 8:09
So I’m a Bitcoin holder. I believe you’re a Bitcoin holder. There are other coins out there. Some of those coins have not done it well at all they’ve diverged from Bitcoin. And there’s a few coins like Solana that have done quite well. I had an investment in something that I think you did some research on, called algorand, unfortunately, has not done well. So away from Bitcoin, are there things that you like? Are there tokens that you think the from a utility perspective, from a use case perspective, that you like away from the store of value Bitcoin?
Tom Lee 8:49
Yeah. I mean, the answer is yes. We’ve recommended to our clients that if they didn’t want to be Bitcoin only that they could look at Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, because we put those largely in the same category as, like, sort of core cryptos, we are also entering what I think is Alt season. You know, next year is really when I think the crypto market could broaden. And this is where those who are really experts on crypto, and I know you run a crypto fund, actually we’re going to are going to have some alpha, because that is actually when many alt coins could do really well. I think that the stronger bitcoin is, the stronger the ecosystem becomes, and so so many of these utility tokens and things that are tokenizing really start to have a lot of expected value. But I, you know, I don’t follow this as closely. Sean. Farrell is much closer to sort of how to play all season. And, of course, sky bridge, well,
Anthony Scaramucci 10:05
I mean, listen, you know, we own, we own things like avalanche, we own. Polka.we own. Solana, we don’t have lots of all coins, but, you know, our performance has been great. But I think this whole thing’s been driven by Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes down Tom, I don’t think these all coins go up, right? They’re very correlated. Wouldn’t that be fair to say, Yes, that’s right,
Tom Lee 10:29
yeah. So next year could be a good year for Bitcoin, but then the alts do even better. So like, what people in managers, Bitcoin dominance could fall next year. So Bitcoins, total share the market cap, makes sense to climb because other things do better. That
Anthony Scaramucci 10:42
makes sense. Let me, let me, let me pin you, because you’re Mr. Prediction and you’re Mr. Accurate. It’s a year from now. We’re celebrating Thanksgiving dinner, and both of us, hopefully will have a lot to be thankful for. Knock on wood. Where is Bitcoin one year from now?
Tom Lee 10:59
You know Bitcoin one year from now, I think is something around 250 250,002
Anthony Scaramucci 11:06
50. Okay, so it’s early. Then, if you could buy a stock at 10 and you, you know, in a year, it could trade to 25 that’s a pretty good investment, right? Yeah,
Tom Lee 11:15
very good and but knowing that it is hyper volatile,
Anthony Scaramucci 11:19
our right, right? People don’t like the volatility. I understand.
Tom Lee 11:23
Yeah. Mark Newton, our technician, thinks that the cycle of Bitcoin turns a little bit down early this next year, so maybe Bitcoin gets to the 60s, 60s before 250
Anthony Scaramucci 11:36
Yeah, I could see that. All right. Let’s go to regulation, and what I mean by regulation, not just crypto regulation, more broad regulation. Republicans and President Trump are known for deregulating. How much impact do you think that will have on food energy? Give me some insight into your opinion of what’s going to happen with taxes. Will the corporate taxes be extended and tariffs. So the question is, regulation, tariffs, taxes,
Tom Lee 12:12
yeah, well, these are all areas that are that we’re all going to be watching very closely on, on, let’s say food, because you mentioned food to me, the most important really, is grain prices, you know, because they’ve actually been softening. That would be really welcome if grain prices fell, because that would take the front end of food inflation out. Some of that could be because they’re into markets. Are trying to price in an ending of the conflict in the Ukraine, because that would help bring down grain prices, because it would just take away friction from the market. With regard to tariffs, I think that there is a lot of saber rattling because, you know, throwing 300% tariffs on products would be, of course, very economic. It would just create so much turmoil in the economy. But what I have heard from Chinese manufacturers, because I was on the west coast this week meeting with some, you know, a group of businesses is that China has already reduced the tax refund for Chinese exporters, meaning, like someone who makes an air fryer, if they were getting a tax refund from the government, that’s How they’re subsidized. That amount is reduced, so they’re they’re essentially rolling back the subsidy, and I think that that will have the effect of negating the need for terror like for tariffs, especially because I think China’s economy is a bit weaker. So if those tariffs were designed to get China to not try to engage in hostilities economically, I think it’s actually probably working. I mean, that may be a surprise, because I’m not sure it’s widely known. I asked a lot of folks if they’d heard this, but that’s what I’ve heard from a manufacturer.
Anthony Scaramucci 14:15
And then I think the market is trading the way you’re thinking, though, am I wrong kind people think that in the market, right? Or no,
Tom Lee 14:22
yes, yeah. I think it should, at least in the beginning. It makes sense to be expected, even if it hasn’t been delivered on taxes. As you know, a lot of folks have been writing that it’s it’d be very typical for the US fiscally to actually extend or even expand the tax cuts. And I think the bond market is going to really ultimately decide that, and because if yields keep creeping up because of a growing deficits, I think that it’s going to be hard for the White House to. Accomplish that. I mean, the White House is watching the stock market. Stock market would come under a lot of pressure if the bond if yields keep going up. So that’s I would say to me, even though that’s a goal like tax cuts, I’m not sure that that’s going to be achieved without some way to convince bond markets. It’s not that someone will pay the bill, and maybe that’s because maybe you need a crypto strategy before you can actually do that.
Anthony Scaramucci 15:24
Well, I mean, if you put a billion Bitcoin tokens on the balance sheet, and Bitcoin goes to 250 you know, you’ve got extra reserves on your balance sheet. Psychologically, I think that could help, but you’re in a box if you’re the Fed Chair. First of all, will Donald Trump keep Jerome Powell? Remember, he appointed Jerome Powell, so he rails on him, but he did appoint him. Okay, so the question is, will he keep them? And what does Jerome Powell do over the next 12 months? Yeah,
Tom Lee 15:54
the Fed, you know, I think Fed Chair Powell is really independent. You know, he’s done a, in my opinion, a great job. I mean, he’s navigated the US financial system through the pandemic, and then an inflation war, and then actual wars. And so I think, and I think he’s handling the threats of his lack of independence. Well, you know, I think he’s done a great job. And if inflation doesn’t provide the visibility that it’s falling and the labor markets aren’t faltering, I think it’s makes a lot of sense for the Fed to slow the pace of cuts, because I don’t think they’re turning hawkish. They’re just simply trying to keep a lot of dry powder in case they need to make cuts later. And so I think their strategy is, makes a lot of sense, but also it’s, I don’t think it’s negative for stocks, but yes, I mean, it’s going to be, you know, as you know, like a lot of well known investors have warned, that you know, that the US does have a more tenuous fiscal position. So I think that’s why the Fed is going to be very important in the next few years, really trying to contain market fears.
Anthony Scaramucci 17:15
You know, you’ve previously predicted that the S P would reach 15,000 by 2030, and what I loved about what you said is it would be factors like Gen Z finally entering into the market advancements in AI, use you sticking with that? Have you moderated it anyway? If so, how and what are some of the key drivers that support your forecast? Yeah,
Tom Lee 17:41
it’s, um, yeah, that’s still our case. You know our base case that the we’re in a an earnings driven cycle, aided by AI, also supported by this prime age workforce surge coming from millennials and then also Gen Z, because those two generations are larger than Gen X. So Gen X is the generation born between 1960 to 1980 roughly, and and those folks are, you know, just in the heart of the prime ages now. And now they’re exiting, and now you have two huge generations behind it. So that’s think of it as like a second wave driving further growth. S and P earnings next year are roughly 300 for, let’s say, just sort of simple measures. And so that’s why S and p6 1000 is just 20 times earnings, right, which I don’t think is that demanding. By 2030 we estimate S and P earnings could be 600 to 650 Okay, and, and I think multiples will be higher because of the larger share coming from AI and technology earnings, which naturally have higher PE multiples. And so if you just apply a 20 to 25 multiple, you’re getting 15,000 so I know it sounds like people say, well, 15,000 sounds crazy, and two years ago it might have sounded crazy, even though we that forecast was in place. More than two years ago, that forecast been in place probably for five or six years. But now that we’re at 6000 we’re that much closer to 15,000 it’s not a quantum leap any longer.
Anthony Scaramucci 19:41
My last question before I go on to the the audience questions, how do you assess the impact of the artificial intelligence, you know, and is it all positive? Is it’s could it be dystopian? Could military adversaries of ours get a hold? COVID Could, could someone figure out how to put an artificially intelligent worm into our Pentagon or our power system? Or are you just not worried about any of that?
Tom Lee 20:13
I I would say, if based on my conversations with our clients and with other sort of folks following this. I do think we’re underestimating the negative consequences of AI, you know, foremost, because in in a human like in our human intervention endeavors, you know, we we work with ethical boundaries. Because even though there might be a shortcut, like, let’s say you’re waiting for coffee, you know, you wait in line and other people are in front of you, but in an AI world, there’s no benefit to being ethical, you know, so that in the AI world, that machine will just cut the line in front of everybody to get coffee, and I haven’t seen any attempts to create ethical boundaries within AI, especially other nations pursuing it. So to me, this means there’s going to be much greater risk of cyber security hacks, and it’s going to be much harder for us to protect our identities in this world of AI and social engineering and generative AI videos, and it’ll be very easy to spoof people. And so I think profits are going to do fine. There’s going to be a much higher cost in the economy around cybersecurity and already, JP, Morgan, you know 7% of their activity? Well, all banks, really 7% is now suspicious. It’s actually been rising. So in a world of cybersecurity, banks are kind of losing the war because there’s more fraud now than less. And so I think that’s makes crypto so much more important, because it does secure your information. I think that’s one solution, but I Yeah, so I think there’s a lot of risks, actually, personally, I, you know, I think if, if you unleash AI systems in the financial market, there’s going to be a lot of people who make dirty trades that trick people and spoof people, and there’ll be fake headlines, because that’s how you manipulate markets.
Anthony Scaramucci 22:23
All right? I mean, it’s great, great, great stuff. You’ve, you’ve, you’ve laid out a bull case, you’ve laid out the crypto case, you’ve given us some common sense on interest rates and tariffs and taxes. Let’s go to the questions, if inflation makes a resurgence in 2025 as some has speculated, do you believe Bitcoin and crypto assets could act as reliable hedges, or are there better options? This is Juan from Florida. Good question one.
Tom Lee 22:52
Juan, hi, you know, historically, hedges for inflation have been land like owning real estate, owning gold, which I think still valid, but I think now there is hedges using crypto, because crypto is also hedging against dollar and currency debasement, which is on top of like inflation risk. So I think all of those are valid inflation hedges. Of course, if you are open to alternatives, even things like art and collectibles are pretty good inflation hedges as well. All
Anthony Scaramucci 23:32
right, let’s go to the next one. I agree with that in the current economic and market climate, which sectors do you believe offer the most attractive investment opportunities. This is Brian from California.
Tom Lee 23:45
Got it Brian for most of this year, what we recommended to our clients are really four sets of trades. The first is ai ai related trades. The second is small caps, because the Fed is dovish and they’re easing, and that’s going to boost their small banks within small caps. Third is we’ve recommended financials and industrials, because the Fed is easing. And the fourth is Bitcoin, because a dovish fed along with this having cycle. So those are the four traits with the new Trump administration. Those four trades are also the same recommendation, because now you have a White House that’s wants the stock market to go up. So there’s a Trump put now on the stock market, and now there’s a Fed put, and that supports small caps, financials and industrials and Bitcoin. And, of course, the AI trade, I think, is remains strong. It didn’t need a Fed put or a Trump put. The four things,
Anthony Scaramucci 24:56
let’s go to the next one. I. Tom and Anthony, how will Trump’s re industrialization strategy affect liquidity in the coming years? Harry from Switzerland,
Tom Lee 25:12
I’d love Anthony’s views too, but I just share that I know onshoring is something that the US has is pursuing, like D globalization, I think that’s what you’re talking about. I’m sure companies are only doing will do this if it leads to higher profits. I think a lot of people look at this as companies are going to onshore and there’s like suddenly inflation in America. We know that won’t happen because if, if some manufacturer is making a product in America now and it’s twice as expensive, they’re going to lose all their business because someone will buy cheaper alternatives from other countries. So I think there’s my just my opinion, less of it than people realize, and any of the moves that are made are because the savings from transport more than offset the higher labor costs from trying to do it onshoring. So
Anthony Scaramucci 26:08
I’ll just add two cents on that. I do think there will be more reshoring of manufacturing, but I think the age of globalization is never ending, and it’s just the way incentives are around the world, you know, and there might be some sanctions here or there, or tariffs and so forth. I am a fan of tariffs, though. Tom that protect us industries from price gouging. So if a government like the government of China is teaming up with their steel manufacturers to dump steel into our market, to kill our market share, unfair, and somebody like Robert Lighthizer is probably going to impose tariffs there to create a blocking mechanism on something like that. So so, you know, there’ll be some fracas, but I don’t think the adults that are around Donald Trump are going to allow him to pursue the rhetoric that he’s talked about, and I think the market’s also reflecting now let’s go to the next question. Could any thing derail micro strategies stock play? What red flag should we watch for good question? Lon from Rhode Island.
Tom Lee 27:18
Lon, I might just need to explain for some other viewers what MicroStrategy is doing. MicroStrategy, around five years ago, transformed the company by using its balance sheet. They had a lot of cash on hand to buy bitcoin, and so instead of the stock being valued on its actual software business, which had been languishing it’s valued as a holder of Bitcoin. But as Bitcoin has risen and MicroStrategy stock has gone up, it’s created an opportunity for them to issue convertible bonds and debt to acquire more Bitcoin. What’s been novel is that they’ve issued these debt securities for almost no interest cost, essentially cocoa zero, you know, zero interest bonds, and so they’re funding this without having to actually pay for the interest expense. Now you might think that this is a little bit reckless, but it turns out it’s a very novel strategy, because they have created a lot of network value. They’re one of the largest holders of Bitcoin now, and ultimately they may become the second largest holder Bitcoin, after the US government, and they’re doing this with the ability to borrow at very low cost. You might wonder, why are bond holders buying these bonds? They’re offering, for the first time, the ability for someone to put a billion dollars work in the bond world, to own a bond that has exposure to Bitcoin. These have been incredibly high performing bonds. They’ve been the best performing bonds. So they’ve helped Bond managers outperform by buying typical corporate bonds, but then with this upside in crypto. And so I think that this makes this works, unless Bitcoin itself doesn’t have a promising future. I, I, I think Michael Saylor has not only done something brilliant, but over time, when when they do accumulate enough Bitcoin, they’re actually going to be able to do quite a lot of novel things with it, whether it’s lending Bitcoin or helping some financial system secure Bitcoin as sort of the anchor of that network. MicroStrategy is going to be one of the few companies that has a large holding of Bitcoin that you can actually tap. So it’s a very I kind of applaud the strategy. So I think that there is a lot of upside in what they do. Because as long as Bitcoin goes up, MicroStrategy very likely goes up a lot more.
Anthony Scaramucci 29:56
I love it. I love it, and I’m a big MicroStrategy person, and. Michael Saylor obviously wrote the intro to my book, and so we have a very close relationship. Let’s go to the next one. How would you recommend investors position themselves for political uncertainty in a Trump 2.0 era? Jason from Texas, well,
Tom Lee 30:24
I would say that foremost for the last, you know, eight, nine years, we’ve operated under what I consider to be increasingly fractious political system, you know, like there’s very little in the middle anymore. I’m actually politically I’m registered as an independent. I’m no longer, I don’t I no longer see myself affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic Party, and I have been for several elections. If you want to know what to hedge yourself with, is just to see what’s done well in the last eight years as a political hedge, and one, it’s obvious that Bitcoin has been a great hedge against political uncertainty, because you know what, it’s censorship resistant. You know you own if you own the keys, you own the coin. No one can seize it from you. Technology stocks have been great political hedges, because at the end of the day, demand for technology has nothing to do with being in favor with one political party or the other. Technology companies like the mag seven have just changed the world, and they become really important. So I’d probably say that those two are your safest and of course, the third would be gold. Because, you know, as the split election went underway, gold actually did very well as people worried about election outcomes.
Anthony Scaramucci 31:49
It’s great answer. I don’t really have much more to add to that, and I feel the exact same way. Let’s go to the next question. What’s your perspective on the risk of over concentration in specific sectors, like Anthony Scaramucci, as an example, has 55% of his net worth in Bitcoin, especially when the recent market has rallied. So what do you think? First of all, am I crazy to have 55% of my net worth in Bitcoin? And then what do you think of Sally’s question,
Tom Lee 32:17
yeah, Anthony, I think the toughest thing people do is, when they have a winner, they try to diversify out of a winner. So I think it’s important to hold on to some great ideas, as long as you have done the work and you’re convinced that that great idea still works. So for Anthony, he made some very timely investments in crypto, and it’s grown to in his portfolio. And I know he’s just
Anthony Scaramucci 32:46
remember, it didn’t start out there. You know, this is, this is a six 7% asset for me. You know, it’s just, it’s just mushroom to that,
Tom Lee 32:55
yeah,
Anthony Scaramucci 32:56
but let’s go to her question. So what do you think?
Tom Lee 32:58
So I think you need to hold on to winners. So if you’re saying that you ended up with a lot of crypto because it’s risen a lot, you just have to, let’s say Hoddle, you know, because you don’t know what the ceiling is. Amen,
Anthony Scaramucci 33:19
and Michael Saylor would probably disown me. I can’t. Can’t give up my bitcoin. Let’s go to the next one. What can investors learn from cryptos recent growth to prepare, prepare for the next phase. Daniel from Illinois,
Tom Lee 33:36
Daniel the biggest lesson for me because we’ve been following crypto for more than nine years now, or on our ninth year, really, you have to the one thing that people have been saying for many years is that something is going to replace Bitcoin, and so you want to own the next Bitcoin. But all I’ve seen is is Bitcoin dominance has been really untouched. So I would just say, Whatever you do in crypto, just stick with just know that Bitcoin has to anchor your strategy. And of course, that’s why Anthony’s book is titled, not altcoin, right, right, prominently on the
Anthony Scaramucci 34:23
cover. You need to know that Wall Street is already figured out. And by the way retail, many people in retail figured it out before Wall Street, which is is odd, but we’re here now, and I’m with the legendary Tom Lee from fun strat. Thank you again for joining us. Have an awesome upcoming holiday season, and I gotta get you back on, you know, you know. And by the way, you’re, you’re stuck with me, Tom, you know, I’m like, you know, I’m not Velcro. I’m a little bit more like super glue. You’re not gonna be able to get rid of me that easily.
Tom Lee 34:54
I’m glad to, I mean, we could even do it in person sometime together. There too,
Anthony Scaramucci 35:00
that would be great. All right, we
Tom Lee 35:02
have a great one. Yeah, happy Thanksgiving.
Anthony Scaramucci 35:04
All right, all the best. You too.
Andrew Brill 35:06
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