Is An Economic (Or Social) Breaking Point Inevitable? | Sven Henrich

Sven Henrich 0:00
The Windows for bears to act in are very, very short. And the liquidity keeps flowing in terms of deficits in terms of PTFB. Nothing of the sort is changed. So show me that something that breaks like chunk, and we can talk bear, but it hasn’t broken

Adam Taggart 0:23
Welcome to Wealthion. I’m Wealthion founder Adam Taggart. Thanks for joining us for part two of our interview with macro analysts, Sven Henrich. If you haven’t yet watched part one of this discussion with spin, in which he explains why technical analysis suggests the markets may have a lot further still to run higher this year, head over to our channel at youtube.com/wealthion. And watch it there first, it sets the context for the investment themes we discussed in this video. Okay, well, let’s get started watching part two of our interview with Sven Henrich.

Sven Henrich 0:57
Purely technically speaking, I have a hard time making a bear case at this particular juncture I can I can make a corrective case that leads for a pullback in September, October, maybe with a volatility spike. You know, if the VIX goes above that monthly trend line that I mentioned, stays above it. Yeah, then then things could change very quickly. You know, but it hasn’t happened. And the technical position of this was was very impressive. And then I want to throw in one final point here. And this has nothing to do with technicals has nothing to do with macro. It’s kind of a human factor. Because we do have a presidential election next year. You know, the names that have been with us for years. Yellen and Powell, J and Janet. Janet Yellen is 77. Now, Jay Powell is 70. Now they’ve both hung their necks out on the soft landing. Trump whether he is going to run again or be nominated again or elect again, I don’t know. I have no clue. But he’s been publicly saying he’s not going to re nominate Powell. Right. Maybe nothing. But it’s it’s kind of a signal out there. I can look in the head of Jay Powell. I don’t know how much longer he wants to do this. Janet tried to get out a couple of times. But I think she was pulled back in. And I think she’s committed until the election November, if Biden gets reelected. I don’t think she states I think she’s retired. And the reason I mentioned that is both have a vested interest in going out on top, preserving their legacy, if you will. And this is completely speculative on my part, but I can just see it, that they don’t want a recession. They don’t they want to avoid it like the plague. And they will do whatever they need to do to avoid that from happening. I mean, if that’s the business you’ve been in for decades, you know, that’s the legacy you want. You created a soft landing by now back to collecting, speaking engagement fees. I’m just saying we saw this in in October, when Janet Yellen was concerned with liquidity in the treasury market. We saw it in March, when she was concerned about the banks. And every single time these were major market pivots. So I suspect that, you know, they they will do the dearest to avoid any major market hiccups. In fact, the one factor that all of us should be aware of, as well, which makes the tire cycle so unusual. The US government is spending money like we’ve never seen before, during a non recessionary environment,

Adam Taggart 4:11
or non time environment. Yeah, eight and

Sven Henrich 4:14
eight and a half percent of GDP deficits. There were only a couple of parents were seen anything like one was the global financial crisis, I think was like nine and a half percent not the other one was, of course, COVID when they threw the kitchen sink at things during the recession in 2000 2003. It was around for four and a half percent deficit spending.

Adam Taggart 4:40
Right. And I’ve shown a chart recently that shows not only is the percentage, abnormally high, but it’s never been this high with unemployment this low.

Sven Henrich 4:51
Yeah, it’s it’s absolutely stunning. It’s crisis

Adam Taggart 4:55
level spending when we have a robust economy

Sven Henrich 5:00
And typically when you have this type of bending, when you are in a recession, guess what markets do?

Adam Taggart 5:06
Right? They go up, they rally. They rally point about human human elements. Some people think that this is engineering for stability through the November election of next year.

Sven Henrich 5:20
Yeah, yeah. Like whether, you know, doesn’t matter which party you are in favor of any party is in charge does not want to have a recession during an election year. Ironically, that has happened a couple of times, right. It happened in 2011 2008. And guess what everybody was out? During the recession during the election year, you’re out? Goodbye. Right. So they all have an incentive? What? Whether they succeed or not, that’s a completely different question. They certainly didn’t succeed in 2000. They didn’t succeed in 2008. So my and by the way, speaking of seasonality chart, again, the first quarter in a presidential election years, typically quite shaky. So you may see that big year and run and then some sort of correction again, at the beginning of the year, and then that typically run, you know, unless you are in a recession. Right. And so that’s what what I’ve done comes down to this whole runway discussion, you know, given all the factors we mentioned at the outset, you know, if you do have a year, year and a half this, this can, this can drag on and to 25, and then the recession heads. Alright, so, in many of these cases, you just simply have new all time highs first before something burns down. Yeah, that’s that was the message from the one year yield, right? That was the message that we saw with these Nymo, August Nymo readings. That’s what we saw with these big crashes that never even produced down years, 1887, and so forth. So this, there’s a lot of history to consider. And then I guess my final point on this is just to say, again, you know, observing all these mega rallies, and these tiny windows that bears have to play, it’s kind of an eye opener. It’s been like this for for many years, you know, so. Alright, that’s my base premise on all this is, and I hate to say it, I’m probably gonna get creamed for this on Twitter, on YouTube.

Unknown Speaker 7:31
Why the? You know, whatever. Yeah, that’s

Sven Henrich 7:38
what the technical say, at this point. That’s what the history says. You know, something needs to break. I haven’t seen anything break.

Adam Taggart 7:48
Okay, well, that’s a really good segment. And before segue, and before we would make it first I just want to say thank you for putting all this all this material together. And for, you know, kind of issuing this cautionary warning to folks, which is, like it or not, this just is what’s happening, right. And so you’re we’re trying to prevent people from getting steamrollered by the market because they’re clinging too tightly to an ideology. Right. So thank you, because I know you’re, you’re putting your personal brand at risk a bit here, at least have. I’ve taken some slings and arrows of folks that have followed you for a good while by saying, You gotta respect the bull trend, whether you like it or not, right? So let

Sven Henrich 8:29
me just interject here briefly and say, Look, this is all this is part of what I love about markets. It’s a constant educational journey. That challenges all of us and we’ve all been guilty of this, myself included. You know, you you think, you know, what’s, what’s the old George George Carlin line? You know, if you scratch her cynic, you find a disillusioned, disillusioned idealist. And because we all have kind of a sense of what should be, you know, what’s fair what’s right, you know, valuations, wealth inequality, this than the other, but let’s face it, folks. And this, this was part of my major macro bear view, is this system is completely screwed without massive debt financing. And it’s gotten so bad that we are now in that place where they have to spend 8% Plus deficits GDP is GDP, just to keep things afloat, and the outlook, which is their rose colored view, in my point, my estimation is you know, $50 trillion dollars debt what by 2032. They have no children, and this is before recession, guess how much they’re gonna spend when there actually is a recession? It’s insane. So, you know, they never allowed the real cleansing of the system. Last year I called the we talked about the controlled demolition, if you will. But we never got rid of the post COVID access, the amount of pain it would take to get a real proper cleansing in the system. I don’t think anyone is prepared for they certainly aren’t. And they certainly aren’t to take that pain during the presidential election. So, you know, it’s not only the US is it’s everywhere. And that’s why it’s everywhere. And you know, like in the UK today, we saw the city of Birmingham all sudden, basically declaring in effect bankruptcy because they can’t handle the bills anymore. You know, the message is all these high rates that we currently have to cope with inflation, they’re not going to stay that high. You know, there is as soon as they have an opportunity to actually take them down, they will have to take them down. There’s this is there’s no question about it. You know, whether it takes a trigger on on that

Adam Taggart 10:55
all right. So your your your leapfrogging into where I want to eventually go here, which is oh, great, which the end is sort of systemic integrity question which I want to dig into that before we’re done. On the way there, though, let me let me make the first segue though, which is, so right now we have a market that’s really being driven by TA, right. With the the macro just hasn’t really seem to matter, right. You’ve mentioned the term lag effect a couple of times, it’s something I’ve been repeating at nauseam, I’m sure for my regular viewers here on this channel. And keep in mind is that is there a point at which the lag effect with a macro may actually achieve dominance over the TA and when we have, you know, as long as higher for longer is going on? We have this heavily indebted system that you just railed about, right, that is chugging on now along under rates that are dramatically higher than what they were just a year and a half ago. Right. I mean, we were almost near 0%, at the beginning, Fed funds rate at the beginning of 2022. You know, now we’re sitting here at 5.5 and a quarter. And who knows, maybe rates might go even a little higher from here. I don’t know, looks like we’re maybe done. But we don’t know for sure. You know, do we get to the point where something breaks and that breakage starts driving the action?

Sven Henrich 12:23
Yeah, every single time. No question about that. As I said at the outset, you know, we have a couple of factors now playing that may delay it, all right, which is the Lockton mortgage rates, the corporate debt, rollover maturities, and now positive wage growth and so forth. But from my perspective, maintaining rates at this level, is incompatible with with the debt construct that we have, in fact, we’re starting to see some signs of this already happening. Right I in the labor market, you know, again, here’s one of those areas where you can believe what you want to believe. But you know, clearly the jobs numbers are not as rosy as they’ve been made out to be. As we’re consistently getting downside revisions. And the structure of it all companies will get more cautious. But they will also assess in terms of what the consumer demand side still is. This is why this is the negotiation phase here with positive real wage growth all of a sudden, I can’t say when this all breaks. But let’s look at the past cycles. And you know, typically, you get into trouble when the unemployment rate really kicks higher. And the yield curve on inverts completely, the yield curve is still inverted. And speaking again, of runway with markets, when you look at the historicals of that, it’s not until you have the full inversion. That’s when things start breaking. So that that process from the inversion going back to the neutral, that face is still run away from markets to rally. And then that’s when the break comes in. You see unemployment ticking up. What you also typically see is once the unemployment rate has bottomed and it’s starting to move up ever so slightly, that’s typically when the fit is done with its rate hikes

Adam Taggart 14:21
in Canada, and just we just jumped from three and a half to 3.8% in a single month, right on the unemployment rate.

Sven Henrich 14:29
Right. And I think this is something we got to watch very closely, because, you know, there’s, we still have another rate hike this year. And I, if that thing starts ticking up into remember, the Fed actually originally forecasts 4.1 4.2% for the end of the year. I have no history looking at the Fed Funds chart visa vie unemployment, where they are hiking rates with the unemployment ticking up. You know, unless they want to do something different this time. That’s don’t forget dual mandate, which is full employment. So if this starts taken up, that’s typically a signal to say you’re done. And then once they’re done, then you have the discussion of the runway, the, again, 2006 2008, it was almost two years, right? In 2000, it was a bit less than that, obviously, it was a few months. So that’s then the phase we have to negotiate through markets will always, you know, it’s like kids on the playground, you know, they will push the time for as long as they possibly can.

Adam Taggart 15:30
Right? Or at bedtime. Yeah. And,

Sven Henrich 15:33
and because you do have considerations of positioning and making the quarter making the year, and you’re gonna mark up the winners dumped the losers data, data data. And that’s what I’m saying, you know, keep an eye on that seasonality chart, because you know, as long as it tracks, it tracks, right? And when, if there is a runway into next year, why wouldn’t they take it? If if they can’t, especially if the dollar rolls over and yields rollover? Now, these are also the two risk factors I’ve been talking about all year, you know,

Adam Taggart 16:05
and can we talk about yields because I, you specifically said recently that we may be seeing a reversal, setup and process with TLT. And there’s been a lot of questions on this channel recently about are yields going to come down or all of a sudden, we’re seeing a lot of headlines that oh, my gosh, everyone’s getting worried they’re gonna keep going up forever now. So what are your thoughts on yields?

Sven Henrich 16:26
While the TLT chart I posted was classic technical, I mean, we’ll get the fundamentals. I didn’t bring it with you. But it’s, it’s on my Twitter feed, it basically showed a new low filter November gap, and the new lows in the positive divergence, tightening channel and then basically started with pop up. And it did, it popped up nicely below reverse now it’s, it’s dropping again. And you can argue that maybe a classic backtests sort of pattern needs to defend itself, the odds are, at least structurally, from a technical perspective, that t and x, which is the 10 year may be in process of putting some sort of double Tarvin. Okay, if that happens, you know, you have that possibility that you get relief, that yields are coming down. That’s bullish equities, until that relief, turns into sheer terror. Because at some point, when your yields draw really hard, that’s then a recessionary sign. Right, that goes send in conjunction with the yield curve, fully inverted, re inverted, and so forth, and unemployment ticking up. So the these are all pieces of the puzzle. You know, we live in the world of instant gratification, and it’s movie flipping, you know, you want things to happen right away. This is this is a slow beast, you know, and it, I thought it was kind of, you know, fair enough for Jay, I criticize him enough. But his recent comment about, you know, navigating by the stars under cloudy skies is is actually spot on. They don’t know that everybody’s guessing on this. And anyone that pretends to have the answer, they seem to have access to knowledge maybe that no one has, or they’re just pretending. We cannot know. No one can know with any precision, you know, can’t you know, again, like geopolitical events, can’t predict them, you know, anything could happen that or that or that. But so there’s always risk if something breaks on that front, but it’s not something you can predict with any type of precision. So these are slow moving pieces. I think the cycle has some unique aspects to it because of the previous regime of low rates. So we gotta be cognizant of that. We have motivations, we got seasonality, we got technicals, that is there’s all kinds of cases to be made, that things could turn out still aggressively bullish before something breaks but I can’t tell you, you know, when this would happen, you know, so I’m basically of the view by the dip here. If we get a nice correction still in September October into 4100 4200, it’s probably setting up as a buy obviously, we’ll always have to gauge and judge the technicals as they evolve this July correction exactly this August correction to set up for a really nice buy because of the dramatic level of oversold signals into key support because it did 23 Six fit was perfect as well. So in that sense, you know, like the VIX hitting the trendline and s&p it ends 23 Six Feb BP SPX getting to 13 on the RSI, it just a lot of confluence factor that suggested bounce. And if the seasonality chart continues to track I guess we’ll see maybe another rally into mid September which by the way, Nick Last week is also the Apple iPhone event. Right? And then seasonally things get shaky. So we’ll have to gauge and see how that that evolves.

Adam Taggart 20:09
Okay. Let me try to summarize sort of what I’m taking away from your outlook. And you correct me if I’m mistaken here. Think you’re saying look, respect the bullish trends that are in place in the way the tape has been playing out. So us generally expect the markets to probably more likely do continue running, while the Fed continues to tire for longer campaign. At some point, that’s going to break something, but but probably not tomorrow, and we could have more market running ahead of us than bears expect right now. And that’s the big warning flag I see raising, then then then something will break, right, that’ll then throw the economy into recession that will then start sending stocks downwards. The Federal Reserve has a lot of ammunition to deploy here. It’s got a lot of room to cut and all that stuff. And it likely will, you’re saying, my guess is we’ll see, you know, a quarter or two of continued market weakness, because history generally shows that when the Fed starts cutting, the market usually does have a couple of quarters of worst performance after that. But then the stimulus? Yeah, you’ll get that narrow window, right couple quarters all you get, and then the stimulus will really kick in, and then the markets will be off to the races again, now what timeline that trajectory plays out over still TBD, we’re going to need you kind of calling audibles as you see things. But that general arc I just called out there. Is that your sort of default? Probability right now?

Sven Henrich 21:42
Yeah, I mean, look, I can’t predict the future, I can just look at the history. And basically, what I see in front right in front of me, my you know, unless this is turning out to a to 2007 event, where the August lows and just rip straight to new highs, without any corrective activity whatsoever, or 2000s 14. Then I would, I would say, VIX is really low right now. So we should probably expect some sort of volatility testing in, let’s say, from September OPEX, into early October, mid October, just call it a roughly four week window where things could get shaky. Based on all these presidential pre election years in history, it’s all suggested that in based on seasonality, it’s all going to end up being bought, especially in the context. So we just had these really oversold readings, because I think, if we do make new lows, or retest the lows, all these signals will suddenly start showing really positive divergences. And I’m sorry, I’m good still react to technicals? So unless the VIX crosses that bear bull line that I mentioned and stays above it, I think that scripts has a high probability to play out. You know, of course, when we do get a September, October correction, you won’t feel like that. Right? Because then the world’s coming to an end, again, everybody’s getting scared, and this stuff the other, but I can just, I can just see that playing out in the market. For better or worse. I mean, it’s just been playing that script. So as long as it sticks in the script, I have no, no reason to, to doubt it at this point. If it veers off, then yeah, then I’m gonna have to question myself again, in our approach, but again, the windows who bears to act in are very, very short. And the liquidity keeps flowing in terms of deficits in terms of PTFE, nothing of the sort is changed. So show me that something that breaks like chunk, and we can talk bear, but it hasn’t broken.

Adam Taggart 23:59
All right, I’ve got two last questions for you before we wrap this up. And by the way. So Ben, thanks so much for going so long here and just delivering so much during this conversation. That’s been fantastic. So I just got to ask, because people follow you and subscribe to your service because they’re trying to make more informed investing decisions. Obviously, I’m guessing at least in the near term, you’ve got a long bias in general for all the reasons you just mentioned. Are there any particular asset classes right now that you think look particularly attractive and other any that you think look particularly toxic right now, given the ladle? And?

Sven Henrich 24:41
Yeah, so I mean, we’re, we’re index traders, right? I mean, we look at just index charts and we’re trying to be optimistic basically, in our in our approach has actually evolved a little bit over the last couple of years, in that there wasn’t a time when Oh, assist hyperbaric you don’t want to be shorting everything. And, you know, I got a gray hairs to show with that. Over time, we’ve become really practical in the sense that, you know, if we are shorts, we also have Long’s on, because stupid rallies can get even stupider, right. So the summer, we wanted to take a crack at this, the madness going on and has like in the s&p, but we also cognizant of the trends. So every week, you know, Russell Long Dow along Russell Long dialogue, every Friday may reconnect, it just worked a charm. Even if we hadn’t done that it would have been just absolute misery in markets. But again, you learn that these rallies can just last for a really long time, and you gotta be really patient for for the setup. And then when there is a short opportunity, take it, but then also be ready to pack up your back. So basically, my general approach on all this is now there are times when we want to be really convicted long, and keep a swing long on until things get stupid again, in the meantime, have tactical long scale out of those in the reps, and then we’ll reenter on MIPS. I mean, it’s this, it’s just a risk allocation process. And it’s working quite well. I mean, this again, from an index perspective, and we’re mostly NASDAQ, or the s&p or the Russell, those are kind of three main indices, and we like doing the three of them because they also react differently to the economy, right? The Russell is more sensitive. So if it’s, if there is to be a break, then we would actually want to see it in the Russell. It hasn’t broken either. It’s just been chopping in a range for a year and a half now. And of course, you know, when when you hot have hot flashes, like the NASDAQ, you get really instant returns on that basis, but selling very difficult. It’s, it’s it’s an arduous process. I would think ultimately yields are going to be much lower, I guess that’s why people bullish TLT, but we have to still be cognizant of inflation data coming back in I mean, you see oil ripping higher again, that’s yep, that’s a concern.

Adam Taggart 27:18
Base effects are driving it up right now. Anyways, I mean, it’s the use of a lot in the maxis effects.

Sven Henrich 27:23
But then, you know, look at Tesla. Oh, my God. I had a little fun with a little tweet on that this weekend. Because Tesla had been cutting prices on their cars just absolutely dramatically. Right. But Model X was 120 grand at the at the beginning of the year. And now it’s down to just below 80. I mean, talk about this inflation being all around us, as well. And it’s not only ours, right? We see that now with diamonds. My yeah,

Adam Taggart 27:57
by the way, some cars having just some values, cars, car market is still bananas. But yeah, well,

Sven Henrich 28:03
some of these cars come in and out by other makers, you know, basic SUVs do want 150 grand for it, I think you map this map pricing out, they’re not not mass marketed at all. But it’s, it’s, it’s unclear still enough to see those data points, but long term yields are gonna come lower, again, whether they’re going to find a higher equilibrium than before, I guess depends on the severity of any recession that’s coming. To the extent it is no severe recession, we may just find ourselves in a spot that the Fed is currently denying, which is adjusting the inflation target.

Adam Taggart 28:44
There’s still so many questions, but we’re gonna have to leave in for next time. My last big question for you, though. With your cost of living observation there sort of speaks to the heart of you. And I, I think we, you know, over the years have bonded over our concerns for the long term since integrity of the system. Nick, I mentioned this 10 minutes ago or so when you were talking? And, you know, we you said the only way for this thing to really keep perpetuating is just to be keep issuing more and more debt. Right. And that has an end date on it. But you can only do that so long before the whole system implodes. And I think on the way there, you know, doing that it the way the system is set up, you increasingly reward those who own financial assets and who have first access to you know, all the free money because basically, the way a Fiat Mart, fiat monetary system works is that money is invented into thin air through debt issuance. And so we continue to get this vast and are aggressive and accelerating wealth gap that that’s just been increasingly visible in the in society. And then you know, going through which just happened here, right where in COVID. All the intervention that came into play shot financial assets to the moon, which really benefited the wealthy, right, but it also woke up the inflation beast, and cost of living has gone to the moon. And that’s really disproportionately hurt everybody, not in the top 10%, top 1% however, we want to slice it, right. So, you know, we get to a point where it might not be a financial breakage or an economic breakage, that matters, it becomes a social breakage social crisis. I put a video out a few weeks ago, when that song Richmond north of Richmond came out, I don’t know if that phenomenon has caught fire on your side of the pond. But it seems like the working class and the dispossessed middle classes are they’re beginning to find their voice, they’re beginning to you know, really stand up and push back. I had Neil Howe on who’s the demographer who talked about the fourth turning and you know, we’re in the thick of one right now by his calculations. And that’s when you expect to sort of see this unraveling of the status quo. So I guess, I guess where I’m going with this is like, what are your latest thoughts on this? I know you have a lot of passion around this. Is there a way where we realistically can engineer a more equitable future from here? Or is this thing just gonna have to crash and burn first, we can combine it with enough of the masses rising up and just demanding real reform from their elected leaders?

Sven Henrich 31:41
Well, first of all, we bonded over axe throwing in wood chopping. So everyone is clear on that.

Adam Taggart 31:47
We did and just just to be clear, when when spending get together in the real world, I’m bringing my x and and hopefully you’ll bring yours we’ll do some shopping.

Sven Henrich 31:56
But next time I’ll bring my accent Oh, okay. Now, yes, you’re absolutely correct. It’s it’s been an issue close to my heart for a long time. i It’s it. I see it in London, I see it in Edinburgh, you know, where I just was the, the, the general level of poverty amidst the absolute wealth. It’s embarrassing. To our first world, as we like to call it, I mean, I, you know, I see the occasional clips on what’s going on with homelessness in America and the political divisions, frankly, terrify me for the health of society. may not, you know, I’ve muted most of the outrage accounts, I can’t on Twitter, because I just want to be focused on on markets, but I know it’s out there. And it’s political extremism finds a fertile ground, when there is underlying social economic stress and discontent. And bad actors have been able to take advantage of this many times in the past with often disastrous consequences. I hate to see it, you know, and I, like internet was always the promise, hey, everybody has access to better information. Now, it’s become just a brilliant source of misinformation and hate and this that the other but the only reason that works is because in my view, so many people are left behind the middle class has been shrinking decade after decade. And there is no there is that there is no leadership, cohesive leadership. I hate to say in any of the countries in the Western world. And I think it’s really hard to because let’s say you get an adult at the table, in any given country. Let’s say you get a really smart guy, woman, with vision, with experience with a heart to want to do the right thing. I submit to you in today’s political fractured world, it’s almost impossible because they’re gonna get torn down. They’re gonna get misinformation thrown on their head, left, right and center. And I hate to say it, people believe crazy shit, they do. And the reason for that is because ideology because you will timidly wants to seek someone to blame. And that works, and especially people out there shellings. And these guys are to blame these guys are to blame. To solve the problems that you have outlined, you need a cohesive approach, I promise, I don’t know what the solution is because the solution maybe just be pain, but no one, then that makes it worse. To when you look, for example, if you’re looking for a big blow up in the system, who’s gonna get hurt, hurt the most? The poor, the people that are already left out? Absolutely. And left behind. So if you kind of wishing for a crash, you know, with 10% unemployment it, guess who’s gonna be unemployed? Right? It’s the people that are already hurting the worst, but this is what frustrates me the most about this situation? And yeah, the system, for better lack of a better word is completely rigged for the asset owners. Because that’s what’s driving everything. If companies are doing well, and the shareholders do well, they’re gonna hire. And if they don’t do well, they’re gonna lay people off. But they still have will have made the dividends and they will have made the compensation on the way up. Right. It’s just, it’s kind of an unfortunate misallocation of resources and capital. Right now, I was hoping that maybe technology would help in a lot of this. But now this may turn out to be a threat as well. As you know, AI is still nascent. But guess whose jobs are gonna be replaced? The ones that most easily can be it’s right. It’s right. Well, look at the basic thing is shopping these days, I mean, the cashiers on the way out, right? Yeah, I mean, it’s, it’s all self checkout. It’s all self

Adam Taggart 37:02
checkout. And eventually, it’ll be retinal scan on the way out, you won’t even have to put your stuff in them. Yeah, I

Sven Henrich 37:08
do not.

Adam Taggart 37:11
But But and I’ve, I talked about this pre AI, you know, this latest pre ai, ai wave. Where, you know, back during Desert days, we have, I assume it’s the same out in the UK where you are, but we’ve just made it so expensive to employ humans out here, the cost of employing a human keeps going up, that we’ve given such a perverse mal incentive to employers to automate and offshore and invest in you know, AI and whatnot, right, so that they can basically get by with leaner and leaner workforces. And those jobs aren’t ever coming back. You know, what, once you automate, you don’t automate, right? So we’re really eroding the first number in the bottom bunch of rungs on the ladder of skill development, right. So that’s going to create long term issues. And then AI, you know, it’s not just going to be the lower people, it’s going to continue to creep up the coat the white collar screen. And look, folks probably aren’t going to get a lot of tears for those folks. And maybe deservedly so. But to your point, it’s going to disproportionately hurt the bottom of the pyramid from the workforce.

Sven Henrich 38:27
Yeah, and, you know, this game can continue as long as there’s not a political break. But, you know, we all we all grew up in, I would say, relatively sanguine times, politically speaking. And that has been a good thing for us, obviously, but you would think you cannot risk a societal breakdown. You simply can’t we’ve seen that too many times.

Adam Taggart 39:01
You simply can’t. But I guess this is my question to you in this whole thing, which is, even though we can’t are we on a trajectory towards one

Sven Henrich 39:10
but that’s why I’m saying they gonna have to keep the money flowing. To prevent that from happening. They have no choice they’re trapped, we’re all trapped.

Adam Taggart 39:21
We’re trapped but we’re they can only do that for a certain period of time though, right? You can you can issue so much stimulus in

Sven Henrich 39:28
Japan has been printing nonstop. You even during the inflection, hiccup, it still works. You know, I would think it would break. But if ultimately you can ease of all the pressures by going to zero rates again. You can continue this process, can you not? It’s only when you trap you can’t reduce rates. And then the lag effects really take hold that you then the risks that you have A major calamity happening in markets. Yeah,

Adam Taggart 40:04
I’m gonna start to affect that there’s no, you know, there’s no free lunch look, if you could, if you could print yourself to prosperity, we’d all still be speaking Latin. Right? You know, the Romans would have figured this out.

Sven Henrich 40:15
Well, I mean, you know, Rome is always a fascinating analogy. I mean, I wasn’t paid in July, which was just fabulous.

Adam Taggart 40:23
I saw your photos are amazing. Yeah, it’s,

Sven Henrich 40:25
it’s, you know, like we, we all have a limited lifespan, we have a limited perspective, what I found fascinating Pompeii specifically is that’s really the only place in the world. You know, you can you can go to Rome, or Athens or other big historical place. And you can see through the remnants of the magnificent structures, but Pepe is what’s so fascinating, because you get a real sense, a real sense, and how the population really lift and how these towns were organized and structures. And yes, there was wealth inequality, whether it was poverty, they were rich people with mansions, you know, it’s the kind of kind of what you’re seeing today. But it was a functioning society. And what they were able to do without technology just impresses the hell out of me. And now that towel was around for hundreds of years before everything blew up. But the point is, you know, Rome at its peak, no one, I would venture to guess its prime leadership would have thought it would crumble to absolutely nothing. Right. And fathomable. And because they were sorted events, you know, and I’m roaming around here, England, and I see still Roman forts and buildings and structures and the roads. You know, these were impressive people. They gotta round in Hadrian’s Wall, right. I mean, they Jesus, you know, that they’ve built a massive structures all over the place, you know, and yet, it all came apart. And he came apart, because largely the same issues, which is debt, social strife, lack of growth, and then ultimately, the barbarians came in, right, they couldn’t hold the Empire two together, and corruption at the highest level, right, because that’s ultimately what happened as well. And they split the Empire, and at the end of the day, that the economic structure couldn’t be maintained, and then it filtered into societal disintegration, and then you didn’t have the leadership to address the issues because the leadership was corrupt as well. And before, you know, it was all over. I don’t want that to happen. You know, what I see socio logically, right now, in the US in particular is disturbing. I mean, I, you know, I’m far removed, I’m sitting in the UK, but I’m looking at the political headlines every other day, and I go, Really, this is, this is where we are now. I mean, this, this was unthinkable 3040 years ago. And this is this is devolving into a really bad show. And it’s, it’s not good. You know, when I grew up the United States was, you know, just universally I wouldn’t say universally admired but it was it was just basically just a shining star you know, innovation and progress and forward moving technology, cultural this out in the other ear. I hate to say, Guys, he talked to a lot of people in Europe these days, and they’re shaking their heads. Big time. And, you know, what’s the old saying, If America catches a cold or sneezes the world catches a cold? You know, I, I don’t I don’t want I don’t want social chaos. You know, I just don’t, but it could well be heading that way. And and what if they split? You know, you if you have a society that can’t see eye to eye on very basic things, you know, that’s where you ultimately risks that that union breaks in one way or another.

Adam Taggart 44:14
All right, I hate to end it on this dark point. But But you’ve confirmed and validated for me suspended This is still something that occupies the forefront of your mind and it’s still a big worry of yours. So we’ll keep ringing this bell here on this channel about you know about these issues, because they affect everyone in the end. All right, well spent look. Phenomenal discussion. Thank you for giving so much your time we’re almost at the two hour mark. Thank you. Oh, my God, I now believe it it’s a sign of a great interview. That was when you just don’t notice the time passing. For folks that have really enjoyed this discussion. And for the perhaps very few that were unfamiliar before this video, where should folks go to follow you in your work?

Sven Henrich 44:56
Well on on x, as it’s called now, it’s at an Arthur men and writer, the website is northmen trader.com. I have also youtube channel at northmen trader, well put out north cast, we have a subscription service where we basically navigate through this market strategy on a daily basis, we have the daily market brief were kind of outlined in the major strategic talking points and we live alerts will be due to tactical execution. And then market video software updates the technicals every week or so, in terms of the larger picture, and so we will keep an eye on everything. As I outlined right now. I think there is a chance for year end rally. If something breaks, I’m willing to change my mind. Obviously, we got to be practical how we’re noodling through this. But you know, there’s this runway discussion here. I think it’s going to be with us for probably the next few months and see how this all of us for now. I just finished on this note the July correction that fit with seasonality these the August bottom fit with technical signals also with seasonality. So the markets still playing a very familiar script so far. And we’ll have to see how much further advantage we can take over the script running.

Adam Taggart 46:14
All right. Spend. It’s been wonderful. Thank you for giving us so much time, my friend. I look forward to having you back on the channel again soon. Especially if you start seeing anything in the TA that makes you want to edit. You know the whole arc of what we’ve talked about today, but again, can’t thank you enough, brother.

Sven Henrich 46:31
Thanks, Adam is great. And I think I need a cold shower now because when is the UK heatwave? No air conditioning here. So I’m sweating

Adam Taggart 46:38
through rough.

Sven Henrich 46:40
All right. Good luck, buddy. Thanks, Adam. Take care.

Adam Taggart 46:43
All right, well, now’s the time on the channel. Will we bring in the lead partners from new harbor financial, one of the endorsed financial advisory partners by Wealthion. To react to this very lengthy in depth interview with Sven, and if we’ve got time, which we don’t have that much this week, because it’s been so long, almost two hours worth. Give us an update and what they see going on in the markets since last week. Gentlemen, great to see you. John. Loader, why don’t we start with you.

John Llodra 47:11
Okay, hello, again, Adam. And hello, everybody. Yes, very long, and chock full of information. talky, which then I candidly didn’t get through all of it. I had it on two times speed just to make most productive use of my commute, but got the salient points. I think. So I think in a nutshell, least what I heard of us fence talk is is basically that, and we’ve had a long and we’ve talked about it, you’ve talked with many, many guests from from a fundamental perspective valuations, all the things we might call fundamental analysis. We are in very, very rare territory, broadly speaking, US stock market, and especially if you get down to some individual stock level, some of the main seven stocks just absurdly overvalued, we will have no bashful hesitancy in saying, Yeah, on the other side of the equation, you have technical indicators, technical analysis indicators that have in the near term here, regained some health and in a vacuum point to the possibility likelihood, you might even say, for a move higher here, despite the very treacherous fundamental allocations. And just to kind of full disclosure, we here at new harbor, we do work in both fundamental and technical disciplines. And, you know, we think one of the key roles that we need to play for our clients in a fiduciary capacity is, you know, basically discerning and judging when to give greater or lesser weight and in what weights to fundamental and technical factors. Basically, and maybe this is a little bit review, but fundamental analysis for those that are not initiated is basically studying from the bottom up, typically, you know, based on earnings, you know, sales revenues and valuations as multiples of those, what the fair value or the proper level of a stock or a market in general is technical analysis, again, just this, this is real simple, but for those that maybe not familiar with it, essentially saying, well, the market collectively knows all that stuff, all that information is out there and the price is the sum total of what all the market participants out there, surmise the information to mean in terms of where markets are, and it kind of basically assumes a efficient market that is all knowing, and we’ll be the first as practitioners of technical analysis say, well, that’s a bunch of BS because markets are not efficient, irrational anyways, they may be efficient, but they’re not rational at all times. And there are times where technical analysis becomes so All fulfilling and in other words herd herd herd mentality. And we as fiduciaries have to kind of judge the wait to put in either camp. So our DNA does compel us to be mindful of the possibility of moves higher. And in fact, we’ve made some tactical adjustments to our client portfolios just in the last couple of days to be respectful of that to give more upside and be slightly more bullish in a measured measured way. But when you get the backdrop, from a fundamental standpoint, we think it comes down to position sizes, in other words, technical signals, that that may say, hey, path of least resistance in the near term here is likely to go higher. We think when you have a backdrop fundamentally, like we do now, it’d be irresponsible to say, for example, put a dramatic weighting in the entirety of a client’s portfolio. In in in kind of adherence to those technical sync signals. So it’s technical signals can be followed. But in an appropriately sized, smaller weighting, that may be different. If we were at much lower fundamental valuations, we will be more inclined and with good reason to give the technical factors that much greater weight, so we’re having to constantly bridge those, those those balances in those judgments. But we agree with the sense fence broad takeaway, that despite the fundamental concerning picture that we can very, very easy to paint. The near term, we think that the probability is that certainly things can go higher. And probabilities are just that they’re not guarantees. So there’s probably as of up and down, the weight of evidence from a short term technical standpoint suggests that there is likely some upward pressure here maybe challenging the highs from end of July this year, maybe even going towards the highs in the intermediate term that we saw last in January of 22. Just broad picture, I just wanted to kind of paint some some broad considerations there for viewers, and so we can kind of get into more details.

Adam Taggart 52:09
Okay. As you guys know, I like myself a good analogy, and I’ve been trying to think of the right one to apply here is maybe stretching too much. But you know, technical analysis, you gave a good definition of it, John. But it’s largely looking at historical patterns in the market, and basically saying, oh, when we’ve seen this in the past, this is likely to happen next. Right. And as I talked about was Fen, hey, no doubt, you know, narrative and technical analysis have been what has been driving the market this year. And it’s been even put up that seasonality chart, which isn’t really even classic technical analysis, and said, Gosh, that that’s just the script, the markets have been playing by this year. And maybe we’re all just overthinking it, we should just continue to, you know, expect the market to follow that seasonality until it breaks that correlation. By the sense, essentially, it’s just looking at old data, right? And the big question that I have is, you know, as an investor, you have to ask yourself, Okay, technical analysis is all that mattered this year. But, you know, macro fundamental analysis really hasn’t mattered at all. But that can’t sustain forever, you have periods of time where technical analysis is really in the driver’s seat. But then you have periods where the macro fundamental is really determining what’s going on. And oftentimes, it’s a blending of both. And as an investor, you know, if you’re putting your chips on one horse, more or less, you really got to ask yourself, Okay, well, how long is this? Is this horse going to be in the lead in this race? Right? And what am I going to do you know, when it doesn’t look like it is that way anymore. And one of the things that the the analogy that’s coming to mind with technical analysis, you could say, Okay, here’s a river. And every time everyone’s crossed this river, in this month, in the past, they’ve made it across safely. So we should think that, you know, the same seasonality or timeframe or setup in the markets or whatever, we should be able to swim across this river. Fine, because that’s what history suggests. Now, what macro analysis would tell you is, yeah, but last week, I had family or crocodiles moved into this river. And you know, that’s a macro change, right? And so if you’re just going off historical data, there’s a big risk factor that you’re unaware of, and someone might jump in the river and swim across it today and make it across fine. That doesn’t mean that everybody that swims across this river is going to make it across fine. You know, maybe these crocodiles wake up or maybe they weren’t hungry this morning when the first person swam across. And so that’s what you sort of have to ask yourself when you’re balancing technical and macro, am I gonna Am I just going to rely on these patterns of the past? Or am I going to look at the situation and try to The Divine what the situation calls for given the reality that’s unfolding on the ground? So maybe that’s their murdered analogy? I don’t know. You nodded and smiled a little bit Johnson, maybe there’s some truth to it. Mike, let’s come over to you here. What’s your reaction all this?

Mike Preston 55:16
Yeah, it isn’t easy. We’re living through a very unusual time period. And so, you know, those that just blindly bought the market one in the last 10 years really didn’t need to do much of anything just by the market by an index fund. So much so that active managers get ridiculed to some extent. And it’s pretty obvious to just about everyone, if you read the news or talk to talk to friends and neighbors and family that the only thing you need to do is buy an index fund and get the lowest cost one and just never touch it. But the problem as we see it, is that we’re in a somewhat semi permanent overvalued state in the market. And this has been a time unlike any others. And I just like to share, I think a chart in a minute here and then just talk a little bit about the market, what we’re seeing short term and and just explain why it’s really hard to just say that you should use technical or fundamentals, I really believe we believe that fundamentals win in the long term. But in the short term, they’ve driving you they’ve driven you insane, you know, short term fundamentals will drive you insane in this kind of market, because it can stay overvalued for a very long time. So we’re doing our best to react to what we’re seeing to not take drawdowns and when we get the big downside that we expect should be likely, although not good, not guaranteed. And to bring our clients through that chiasm, as it were. And so what we want to do is, is to not have much down capture, and to start deploying money at much lower levels in the market. And of course, what’s been frustrating about that as it hasn’t happened. But as we’re talking here, I’m just going to bring up a chart that was put up with our but our good friend, John Huston, you should be able to see that now. So John just put out his monthly piece today, we really liked to read his monthly pieces every every month. And he updates he updated this chart, which I think is, for me, one of the most powerful charts that he puts out. This shows the market, the s&p 500, over 100 years as the solid blue line. And then it shows the levels that would be consistent based on his model, which we think is a very good statistically reliable model that would need to be achieved to to either give a 5% return or a 0% return over 10 year treasury bonds. 10 year treasury bonds are essentially at around 4.2% right now. So if you’re looking for a 5% premium, over 10 year treasury bonds, and that would be around 9.2% or so right now, you need to be trading just below 1800 on the s&p.

Adam Taggart 57:55
And oh my goodness, you know, so it’s half of where it is right now.

Mike Preston 57:59
That’s right. And yeah, so we’re up here at 4500 or so. And a lot of people are talking like this is a brand new bull market? I don’t think so. I don’t I think what’s what’s happened here is just a a market that deviated in the 90s due to money printing and constant intervention that was never actually allowed to correct. Each time I tried to correct we had, you know, new and more fancy responses and other Rabbit was pulled out of the hat. In 2002. We had interest rates very quickly cut down near zero, and that caused the housing bubble bubble in 2008 2009. We had a, you know, a repeal of mark to market accounting, it was FASB 157, I think on March 9 2009, and that caused the biggest blow off top bubble ever in 2020, we had the COVID response around the world. So if you look at this, there’s never been a time over the last 100 years where the market has traded. So extremely so consistently, above these normalized levels of valuation, never. There was a little bit of time between late 50s to, you know, 90 lea mid to late 70s were traded above that line. And I certainly have been a long period of time that it’s traded under that line. What you want to do is buy the market when it’s substantially below that line. And frankly, you want it to stay there a long time during your working years so that you can dollar cost average in at fair valuations what everyone’s facing here in there. What is now in most people’s adult lifetimes, is a constant, permanently high plateau that we are out there saying that we don’t think will be permanent. But here it is, many years later. We’re frustrated, clients are frustrated. Everybody’s frustrated because none of this makes sense. The fundamentals don’t matter anymore, you know, until they do. So we are still very lightly exposed to the market. We’re making some changes we can discuss that in just a minute we’ve made because we to agree with Sven, that this market can break higher have another blow off top. But what the fundamentals say to us is that the results are going to be miserable from here forward, whether it happens sooner or later. So, I will pause there. And I’m happy to share some charts on the s&p 500. If you want to talk about kind of our short term moves.

Adam Taggart 1:00:25
All right, let’s get there in just one second real quick, pull that chart up one more time. All right, I’ll bring it right back. Alright, so there are a couple of different data series that husband has plotted here, based upon the risk premium, that stocks have over bonds. Now, now, stocks should offer a risk premium to bond or a premium over bonds, because they are riskier, that’s why it’s called a risk premium, right? Investors are saying I want a higher return, because I’m taking more risk by being in stocks than versus the relative safety of being in bonds. And so that the yellow dotted line, their orange dotted line, that is the most generous risk premium versus bonds, which is zero, it’s basically saying that the market is just valuing each evenly, right? And you’ll see here that even even to fit that generous comparison, the s&p would still have to fall by what like 40 something percent from where it is right now. 45%, from

Mike Preston 1:01:22
what I would have to go to and around 2700. So yeah, it’s it’s pretty close to what you just said.

Adam Taggart 1:01:27
Yeah. But you’ll notice in the data series here, which again, goes back 100 years, right, there’s only been a very few periods, which John has circled there in yellow, where the s&p has been above that very generous, dotted orange line, right. And, Mike, you’re hovering your cursor over there, right now, there’s periods are not very long, usually measured in, you know, a couple of years, generally, we’ve been over it for the longest period of time. Now, if you look at those two top circles in the upper right, right next to each other, but you’ll see every time it gets up above that dotted orange line, it does inevitably correct and either touch or drop through the lowest of those data series, the green line, right, which has the highest in this data series here, risk premium. So you know, this is Hussman basically saying, Look, if this data series correlations hold true, when this excessive period corrects, we can see the s&p down at or below that green line, which today would be below 60. And 50. I mean, just just a horrific correction in the market. So I just wanted to point out for folks here that you have to have a really good reason why, you know, quote, unquote, it’s different this time to feel confident that that this data series is that the s&p is not going to mean adjust versus this data series.

Mike Preston 1:02:58
Yeah, and if the if the January 4 2022, top was the top in the s&p at 4800, and change, and we think it probably was, but we don’t know for sure, if it was and we fell down to that green line, that would be about a two thirds loss in the s&p, which would actually not even bring us to undervalued level. So that’s what that’s why the stakes are high. Here. There’s financial games that are going on that have been going on a long time. And there’s no real plan B as far as we can see, you know, just stimulate more in the world has to take our dollars because of the world’s reserve currency, at least they have to so far, we don’t really seem to have a plan v. So, you know, at this point, we don’t know how this unfolds, but we have to be prepared for a very steep and long bear market, not another V shaped recovery, every previous dip has been a V shaped recovery because of immediate intervention wouldn’t we wouldn’t be surprised to see an L shaped move at some point here. When this really gets going. You go down and stay there for a bunch of years. And the big key there is going to be to avoid the downside and have tools in place like option selling and such. That can not only hedge your entries, but give you income, while you’re waiting out that you know that that L shaped move or the bottom part of that l

John Llodra 1:04:20
like, before I get off this chart, Mike, I would just want to point out what maybe is obvious to viewers here, but the each of those periods that were highlighted in the yellow circles, the consequence of those extremes, again, as Adam pointed out, is a pullback back, usually slicing through those those other threshold lines. But the consequence in terms of return is that most of the speculative advance in the stock market that lead up to those and sustain those those yellow circle periods. end up giving being given back in a very quick manner. And friend talked about out how the bear markets, especially the the pullbacks of the last few years have been very narrow. Well, that’s traditionally the very case. But what happens in those kind of pull backs is many years, if not decades are given back. And you can see how John Hussman has annotated the chart here. You look at, for example, the s&p return has lagged lag treasury bonds in some, you know, extended periods after each of those crescendos, you know, 1929 to 1950, that’s 21 years, if I’m doing my math, right, 68 to 87, that’s 19 years, to 22 years from 98 to 20. And then you have 13 years from Oh, seven to 20. So, in playing for marbles in a very late stage of speculative advance, it’s all well and good, so long as you don’t overly risk capital, but also be appreciative of that, that can be given back really quick. So downside, risk management is critically important. And as much as we want to think the exit technical factors are just as clear as they seem to be in hindsight on the upside as as the exit, they’re not, and even, you know, time tested technical systems, and they’ve given back a lot of gains in the in these kinds of episodes.

Adam Taggart 1:06:18
Well said, John, all right, Mike. Let’s, let’s stop the sharing here. And let you get to very quickly talking about what’s going on with the s&p right now. We just pressed for time, because again, spent one so long, we don’t have nearly as much time as we normally do this week. I’ll give you extra time next week.

Mike Preston 1:06:39
Okay, well, I’ll try to I’ll try to keep it very short. I’m just going to bring up the s&p chart as we wrap up. So here’s the s&p 500. This is on a on a weekly basis. Let’s start with month. This is just a simple chart within the 50 period and 200 period moving average. So here’s the s&p came back to a 50 week, sorry, 50 month moving average. And it’s been straight vertical since October, we have been thinking that this is a bear market rally that this is just a partial retracement that is going to rollover and and resume the bear market. But the retracements getting deep, right? It’s getting very deep. And this is this actually exceeded the 78% Fibonacci line, which is actually the last Fibonacci line. So it went past that just by a little bit. Now it’s back under it. But our short term indicators have been improving. And that’s causing us some some concern that there could be another type of blow off top, if we go to the weekly chart, we have a one year consolidation, a giant confidence actually seems to be putting in a handle type formation. So you know, valuations are obscene. It’s still a narrow market, which means that breadth and participation is not good. But short term indicators are starting to reverse up. And if we were this is the weekly chart, remember, if we were to put in, I don’t know next week or the week after another big up week, then we could easily see another blow off top because it would be a classic cup and handle formation. It’s really shocking to us that all of this is happening with a one year treasury bills up near five and a half percent. Now there is an alternative, but nobody seems to care. You know, if we go to a daily chart, we’ll see here that on Friday, we had this big up move it was big up move. And in, you know the internals of the market were better these last couple days is a pullback. And so what happens next in the next few days is going to be pretty critical. If we fell through and undercut this low, I think we would, we would start a very steep decline. But if we go sideways for a couple of days, and then up, it’s going to be an issue, particularly because our internals have improved, or our short term indicators, I should say not necessarily our internals have improved. So it may sound like I’m saying both things, but we’re trying to have it both ways up and down our bias is very largely to the downside, but because of the short term improvement in our indicators, because of the chart formation, we have made a couple changes actually just yesterday, we closed out our short hedges and replace them with with with puts that expire out in the end of December. So what that really does is it gives us the same downside hedge or very similar downside hedge but gives us an upside and a stop gap. In other words, if we get this melt up, that could happen. We only have a little bit of money on the table for the puts the puts give you a very good way to know exactly what you’re risking before you enter the trade and yet still give you crash protection. So we did make that change that did free up some cash in the portfolio. We’ll be able to use probably just a park in T bills and earn some good short term interest rates, you know, at present, but so I wanted to say that yeah, we agree with Ben, the backdrop, from a macro sense, it looks terrible, short term, shorter term, tactically, things are improving, and we don’t like it either. But we have taken some measures to, you know, to reduce our risk. And also we’ve got some cash to take advantage of any opportunities that might arise short term on the long side as well.

Adam Taggart 1:10:33
All right, well, well said Mike. So in a nutshell, confounding fluxing time even for the professionals, you’ve got spend scratching his head saying I don’t like it. But I see all these reasons the market could go higher. From here, you’re using the new harbor team saying, you know, we’re in a similar boat. And you know, we’re taking some precautions in case things go higher from here. But of course, you know, your thesis and biases that this market is going to correct at some point as the fundamentals begin to matter. Again, the big question, obviously, is when nobody knows for sure. So Alright, folks, in wrapping this up this whole topic of these crosscurrents in this uncertainty and what to do about it, is what the Wealthion fall conference on October 21, which is a Saturday, it’s coming up in a little over a month. It’s exactly what our our dream team of faculty that we’ve assembled for that event is going to be focused on in discussing, I won’t rattle off all the great folks we have lined up for that just because we’re short on time. But to find out more about the vent as the event as well as register for it and lock in the early bird discount price of nearly 30%. And if you are an alumnus, check your email, you should have a code for me that will give you an additional 15% discount on top of that 30%, just go to wealthion.com/conference. All the details are there. And you can lock in those lowest discounts while they still last. But it just sort of understanding what all this means for you and making it real for you and your wealth in your own portfolio. I highly recommend as we do every week on this channel, that most viewers here work under the guidance of a good professional financial advisor, and one that takes into account all of the issues that span and I talked about. And then John and Mike have hammered on here as well. If you’ve got a good one who’s doing that for you great stick with them, they are really, really rare. If it if you don’t have one, or if you’d like a second opinion from one who does maybe even John and Mike and their team, they’re at New Harper financial, then consider scheduling a free consultation with one of the financial advisory firms that Wealthion endorses to do that. Just fill out the short form@wealthion.com only takes you a few seconds to consultation that you’ll get totally free. There’s no commitment involved. You don’t have to work with these guys at all. It’s just a public service they offer to help as many people position as prudently as possible in advance of you know, the reckoning that both Sven and the guys from new harbor think is due at some point in the story here. We just don’t know exactly when that’s going to be all right, folks. And if you enjoyed the conversation with spending, we’d like to see him come back on this channel again soon. Please vote your support for that by hitting the like button, then clicking on the red subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it, John and Mike, guys, thanks for another great week. John, I’ll let you guide us out here any parting bits of advice for folks?

John Llodra 1:13:32
No, I think we’ve covered a lot of ground here. I’m just gonna keep it short and brief and say thank you. And we’ll see you next week. I think folks have had a long sit at the computer here. So give them an easy out here and we’ll wrap it up here without too much further. Really common. All right,

Adam Taggart 1:13:46
gents. All right. Look forward to seeing you guys next week. Everyone else thanks so much for watching. If you’d like to schedule a consultation with one of the financial advisors at new harbor financial simply go to wealthion.com. These consultations are completely free and there are no strings attached. The good folks at new harbor was simply answer any questions you have about your investment goals or your portfolio and give you their best advice given their latest market outlook. They’re willing to do this because they care about protecting people’s wealth. And because Wealthion has connected them with so many thoughtful investors just like you over the past decade. We started doing this because so many people have approached us in frustration looking for a solution because they’re feeling out of alignment, or downright ridiculed by the standard financial advisors who have been managing their money. You know the type, the kind that just pushes all of your money into the market. scoffs at the idea of owning gold. When you bring up concerns about the market sky high valuations, they say don’t worry, the market will always take care of you. For many of the reasons discussed in today’s video, we think this is one of the most challenging and treacherous times in history for investing. We strongly believe that today’s invest theirs are best served working in partnership with a conscientious professional financial advisor who understands the risks and play. Now we’re agnostic which professional advisor you work with, as long as they’re good. If you’re already working with one, that’s fantastic, stick with them. But if you don’t, or are having trouble finding one you respect or trust, then consider talking to John and Mike and the team at new harbor. For those about to ask yes, there’s a business relationship between Wealthion and new harbor, which we’ve put in place to make sure everything is handled according to SEC regulations. All the details on this are clearly provided on the wealthion.com website. Also, it’s important to note that new harbor is able to work with US citizens, green card holders, and those with existing assets in the USA, but for regulatory reasons, they aren’t able to take on non US clients. Alright, with all that said, if you’d like some insight and guidance on how to protect your wealth during this unprecedented time in the markets, go to wealthion.com to schedule your free consultation with the good folks at you harbor. Thanks for watching.