As we wrap up the year and celebrate the festive season, we wanted to share some of our favorite moments from one of your favorite Wealthion interviews from 2024: Neil Howe with James Connor. Enjoy!
All the best for a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!
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Original interview, aired Mar 7, 2024: https://youtu.be/K_7DaWvpNzA
Andrew Brill 0:00
Happy Holidays from all of us here at wealthion. To all of you, I’m one of your hosts here at wealthion. Andrew brill, we took a look back at this year, and hope you enjoy these favorite guest moments from one of our best interviews of 2024
James Connor 0:18
So Neil, you mentioned that your latest book is titled The fourth turning is here. Maybe you can just touch on that and provide the gist binder for those people who might not be familiar with it.
Neil Howe 0:29
Yeah. Well, it takes the same basic thesis of our original book, but it, it, it. It brings it up to date. I mean, you know, we talk about we talk about Trump, we talk about the current kind of wave of populism and authoritarianism coming around the globe. I talk more in this book than we did in the original, about generational rhythms as a global phenomenon, not just a US phenomenon or American phenomenon. The fact is, is that World War Two and the Great Depression were global crises, right? And that we had a we it impacted not just America, obviously, but the entire English speaking world, all of Europe, including Russia and Asia. I mean East Asia, South Asia, India achieved its independence. My God, all of East Asia went through absolutely traumatic period. And then in the 1970s the world went through an awakening. It wasn’t just in Berkeley or Columbia University. It was in Paris, it was in Prague, it was in Milan. It was in, it was everywhere. It was in, it was in Beijing. I mean, that was the time of the of the Red Guard, and the the cultural generation revolution born after the the real Chinese civil war in the revolution there, throwing away 2000 years of Confucian culture. It was certainly all over Latin America, this rage of young people against the powerful institutions built by their you know, World War two winning parents, right? This was global. This wasn’t just America. And this is one of the reasons why we find these patterns toward, you know, very often Boomer aged, ethnocentric rulers, you know, like a Narendra Modi or a Xi Jinping or, you know, the the new guy who just got in Malaysia. I mean, you can go around the world now, just point them out. Are the way they are. It’s not just Trump, you know, it’s not just Evan, Jair Bolsonaro. I mean, it’s it’s all over the place. And why this happens, we think we can explain it, right?
James Connor 2:55
And you touched on something I just want to clarify. But you said the 1960s was a period of awakening, and yet we saw a lot of turmoil during the 1960s with the assassination of JFK, MLK, also Robert Kennedy, awakenings.
Neil Howe 3:10
The awakenings involve a tremendous amount of argument and violence. I mean, that is typical of awakenings. Another awakening is the the the English Civil War, you know, we’d be headed. We’d be headed Charles the First. But the what would, what is characteristic of an awakening is that it’s tearing down the system, not so much, not so much, banding together and building up a new system. I think that was the difference between the English Civil War and the Glorious Revolution, right? The English Civil War gave rise to a regime which quickly, you know, disappeared. We had the restoration, you know, it gave rise to nothing permanent. The Glorious Revolution on the other end, that was a crisis era, that was a fourth turning, and it gave rise to something permanent afterward, right that lasted? That is the key difference between an awakening and a crisis. An awakening is youth rising up to to overthrow institutions that are too strong and and to allow more individualism to thrive. A crisis is when youth band together to reinforce and save institutions which are too weak, right? And that’s the fundamental difference from today. I think millennials are in order, seeking generation. They’re not an order, fighting generation. I mean, I have millennials. I, you know, I talked to millennials about what boomers did back in the late 1960s and 70s. We thought, you know, income inequality. We hated it. It was this huge monolith thing, middle class. We thought it was terrible, all those suburban homes that all look just the same, you know, all build out of ticky tacky. That was a mill being a Reynolds song, you know. Those, all those little homes all look the same. That was pleasant valley Sunday. That was like horror. That’s the last thing we wanted. So we got rid of the middle class. We got rid of all those brightly colored homes. And I talked to millennials today, and they said, that sounds really nice little houses. They all look just as Wait, you know, where’s the middle class? Where can I sign up? I tell them, No, we got rid of it so. But you see, that’s the difference, right? We were, we were in order, destroying generation for all the right reasons, because boomers always have the right reasons. You know, they always did things for the right reasons. But Millennials are in order, seeking generation, and I think that’s how you explain this movement toward authoritarian leadership around the world. Millennials don’t care as much about democracy, saving all the procedures and everything. They want a system that actually works. They see ineffectiveness and sclerosis institutions around the world, they see institutions not doing anything anymore. Boomers went coming of age. We thought institutions worked too well, right? That’s, I think, a fundamental difference.
James Connor 6:12
So you are suggesting that we’re in a period of crisis right now. Maybe you can just tell us when it started in when? Well, it
Neil Howe 6:20
it. It started with a global financial crisis, just like 1929 it started with the with the GFC, right? 2008 and it will go for, you know, we reckon about 23 years. So, I mean, a typical, you know, phase of life. So that’ll be a time when every, every generation, will move into another phase of life. So it’ll be over by the early 2030s and then we’ll have a new first turning. So the first turning is, think of these like seasons of a year, right? So it’s kind of like, you know, spring summer, winter, fall, excuse me, spring summer, fall, winter. And the first turning is when the the the profit archetype. This is the boomer like generation is being born, right? The War Child generation is coming into young adulthood, that would be the silent generation, and the war hero generation is beginning to move into midlife. That would be the GI generation, right? And that was the in America. That was the American high. That would have been the presidencies of Truman and Eisenhower and John Kennedy. That was a period of great order, great prosperity. Institutions were very well. Everyone knew what to do. Everyone was giving their marching orders. And we were very prescriptive about how you ought to run your life, you know? I mean, if you were a, if you were a, if you’re a guy, you’re supposed to go out and become a wage earner. If you’re a girl, you’re supposed to, you know, be become a homemaker. You know, everyone had their role, right? We felt very good about ourselves collectively. We were pretty modest about ourselves individually. No one really talked about, you know, soft drink ads. Back then were things like, you know, say Pepsi please, or something like that. You know, very decorous, very known. Do the do ads back then, right? Anyway, the the next season was the awakening, and that would, would have been the late 60s, 70s, early 80s. I mean, that really started. It obviously was spearheaded by youth, boomers. And it, it started more on the left, on college campuses, and particularly on cultural issues like the patriarchy and, you know, burning your draft card, burning your bras, burning, you know, just burning all symbols of authority and but I think it, it, it rapidly shifted until by the late 1970s early 1980s were more on the right. It was, get rid of taxes, get rid of regulation, but the common theme was, get rid of social obligation, allow people to do what they want, right? And that was that was very controversial at the time, and it involved huge amount of screaming, you know, particularly kids against parents go back and watch all in the family, you know, and meathead is always just screaming at Archie Bunker anyway. It was a traumatic period, but we came out of that with a newly individualized society. And I think the the, the third turning would have been the the, you know, basically the the the early 1980s until the GFC. And that was a period of of great individualism in America, when we less regulation, less taxes, less emphasis upon requiring anyone to do anything. You know, you go into a bookstore and the most upbeat books are about me, myself and I, and all the downbeat books are about, you know, the end of society, the end of community, right? So this is typical of a of a of a third turning of the of the fall season, what we call unravelings the what we call the Nomad archetype, born, born and raised during. The Awakening is beginning to come of age. This would be Gen X, right? But back in the you know, that was in the roaring 90s, been the Roaring 20s. It was a lost generation, a very similar kind of generation coming of age. And that the 1920s the 1990s the 1850s 1760s these are all wild decades of cynicism, bad manners, weak civic authority. And I think that was the period we went through back then. It was much the opposite of a high. Remember, during the high institutions are strong, individual, individualism is weak. This is a time when individualism is strong. Institutions are weak, right? And I think ever since then, we’ve moved into the fourth turning, and that’s when we rediscover community, we rediscover authority, and we we refashion large civic institutions in the ground up. And typically the climax comes late in the period, so I think most of the heavy lifting is still to come.
James Connor 11:03
Oh, so if let’s just assume we have another 10 years left of this crisis period and we’re approaching the climax, what would you expect to happen?
Neil Howe 11:16
Well, typically, typically conflict. I mean, I’ll just throw it out there. I mean, all the total wars of American and sort of the the whole Anglo American tradition, every Total War has occurred during a fourth turning, and every fourth turning has had a total war. So that kind of gives you a clue, right? And that means it’s a dangerous time. It’s absolutely a dangerous time. And one, one question I mentioned earlier, is whole question about, will it be internal or external, or some combination of the two? And I think that’s one thing I actually talk about in the book, is the extent to which conflicts are perceived as being external, internal. Obviously, the Civil War was almost entirely internal, right, almost by definition in our history. Although even then, typically, what happens in a civil war is the weaker a losing power. This tries to draw in a foreign ally. I mean, that just always happens during the American Revolution, the Americans drew in France, which kind of saved our ass, ultimately, at Yorktown, and basically just diverting the Britain into doing a million other things around the world. So this, this typically happens. There is no unalloyed, purely external or purely internal conflict, and we have to remember that we look back upon World War Two is that, you know, the so called good war is very clear. You know who’s going to win. And so very important to remember that up until about a year before Pearl Harbor, we were a profoundly isolationist country, and that the big division in America was between left and right, between those who favored the New Deal and those who hated it. I mean, half of America, so probably less than half of America, thought of thought the 1930s with a red decade, and the other half thought it was the fascist decade. I mean, in the context of the Great Depression, liberal democracy seemed to have no future. It was either communism or fact, you know what? I mean, it was a dire time in America. And the the it has events showed right with, obviously, the fall of France, and then, and then, you know, the putting through the big armaments bills, the two Navy bill and so on. And Congress America began to to galvanize, you know, over the course of late 1940 early 1941 and ultimately into Pearl Harbor. But, but that was by no means ordained, right and and most Americans thought that the Great Depression never ended. By the end of 1940 you know, I think the the long term yield on bonds reached its all time low in, in, in, in the middle of, I think, June of 19 1940 and we still had deflation. Unemployment was still in double digits. Most Americans thought that Great Depression was still not over, and was a profoundly divided nation in terms of where we should go. I think, I think the the similarities to today are kind of unmistakable, right, a nation divided by itself, with growing foreign threats, in a world where authoritarianism is now gaining strength. I mean, you know, you don’t have to draw it out too much to see that we’re going through some of these same some of these same trends, a a an economy. Which is not providing high, higher living standards for young people. You see the the a record share of young adults living with their parents. When was the last time we had that? 1940 right? Late 1930s all the young people living with their parents, just like today, those Frank Capra movies like Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, you can’t take it with you. They always show these old Victorian Ramblers with the young adults living in the top floor. And, you know, I mean, they’re all living together. No one build new houses 1930s but we kind of forget this, right? We forget how we replay these things and and, I think also the younger generation developed a collective persona as being better behaved and and and better suited to to a more optimistic, community oriented approach to public, pro public problems, than the older generation was back in the 1930s I think we see that again too. Today, every generation has its strengths, and I think we see them manifested much the same way. Thanks
Andrew Brill 16:09
again for watching these favorite moments of 2024 and we hope we can continue to provide you with information that will help you invest wisely and be financially resilient. Wishing all of you a healthy, happy, safe and prosperous 2025!
