James Connor welcomes Professor Steve Hanke for a thought-provoking conversation exploring why we’re headed for recession and its implications for an overheated stock market, while also suggesting a safe asset investors should consider under this scenario. The renowned professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University issues a stark warning about the U.S. economy, stating that we’re “running on fumes” as the money supply contracts, making an economic downturn inevitable this year or early next!
Steve Hanke 0:00 We will enter a recession either late this year or early next year. The the fuel for the economy is what it's a money supply. And the stock of money in the United States is lower now than it was in July of 2022 we're kind of running on fumes. James Connor 0:22 Hi, and welcome to wealthion. I'm James Connor. My guest is Professor Steve Henke, and Steve is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. Steve has done much research on the money supply and its impact on inflation and economic growth, and we're going to get Steve's views on where the economy is going and if and when we're going to go into a recession. Steve, thank you very much for joining us today. How are things in Baltimore? Steve Hanke 0:51 hings are great, Jimmy. James Connor 0:52 and I guess you're preparing for the start of classes in September. Steve Hanke 0:57 Well, it's kind of an autopilot. I'm in my 54th year, so I really don't have to prepare for anything. It's, it's a precision drill. I've got this thing nailed. James Connor 1:11 Yeah, I'll tell you. I miss University. I wish I was going back this September. Steve Hanke 1:16 Oh, it's, a great environment. I must say, I always regret when the summer kind of winds down, because it's it's a little more relaxed in the summer. James Connor 1:31 So Steve, we have a lot to discuss. Unemployment continues to tick higher, and we continue to see weak q2, numbers coming from many discretionary companies, which are suggesting a weaker consumer. And I want to start with the unemployment rate. After bottoming at 3.5% in 2023 the unemployment rate has been climbing ever since then. We saw an uptick in the July number to 4.3% up from 4.1% the previous month. And I want to get your thoughts on this, and if you're concerned about this move higher, as we've seen here, and does it continue to go higher in the ensuing months? Steve Hanke 2:05 Well, there, there are actually some measures that focus on the unemployment rate, or actually the change in the unemployment rate, and those measures suggest that we're actually in a recession right now. I I don't pay that much stock in those, per se, but it is relevant, because the press pays a lot of attention to them. They've latched on to these measures, and, you know, made some noises about it, especially, you know, a week ago, when the market took a hit, every everybody jumped on the fact that the unemployment rate was going up. And if you, if you measure things the way they measure, some of the econometric models they have, it suggests that we're probably in a recession. The main thing that's important about it is that if the unemployment rate goes up and people are unemployed, that means they're not earning income and and if that's the case, we have a situation where we have a situation where people don't have as much spending power, and if they don't have as much spending power, they don't have as much buying power. And so that's why it's important. It's important because people don't have regular income coming in, and they tend to hunker down. They don't, don't have the buying power and spending so, so that's that's one thing, and if you look at the at the forward expectations about revenue and earnings, it suggests that these unemployment rate increases or are kind of in the wind. They're they're notching down for forward guidance. So, so, so that aspect, that's kind of the micro part of the picture. It looks like things are slowing down. Now, when I, when I look at the picture in the macro point of view, the the fuel for the economy is what it's a money supply. And the stock of money in the United States is lower now than it was in July of 2022 and that's only happened four times in the history of the of the Fed, since 1913 and every one of those was followed by a recession or, in the case of the 1929 1933 contraction in the money supply, we had, of course, a Great Depression. So he either had a great depression or a recession following those contractions. And that's why John Greenwood and I think. We will enter a recession either late this year or early next year in the United States, and that's why we by the way, we think that the inflation numbers will keep coming down. There are 2.9% in the United States now, and Greenwood and I had our forecast based on the quantity theory of money, we said they'd be two and a half to 3% by the end of the year. So it looks like we're going to hit the hit the nail on the head when it comes to our inflation forecast going down using money and the quantity theory of money now going up to remind you we said, once the money supply accelerated after covid hit in 2020 the money supply went shooting up in the United States. It actually peaked out in February of 2021 at 27% per year. Now that's that's way higher than hankies golden growth rate of about 6% a rate that's consistent with hitting the Fed's inflation target of 2% So sure enough, money supply zooms up. We get inflation Greenwood and I said we thought it would peak at 9% 9% It peaked at 9.1% so we hit the nail on the head, going up. We hit it going down. Why? Because we focus on changes in the money supply, and that gets transmitted Jimmy through the economy. It changes asset prices, economic activity and and eventually inflation. But all of this with lags, so so people don't, don't pay any attention to it. What what's happening in the economy now is driven by what was happening in the money supply a year and a half or two years ago. So so that, that In summary, is, if you look at the micro data, it's kind of consistent with this macro monetary picture that I just gave you of slowing down, going into recession, inflation, continuing to come down that that picture is if you look micro, individual companies or sectors of the economy that have a bunch of companies in each one of those sectors, those sectors look like slow down as in The wind. James Connor 7:39 So just to clarify the money in the money and components of the money supply, or the fuel to drive the economy, the more money in the system, the stronger the economy, and conversely, the less money in the system, the weaker the economy. Do I have that correct? Steve Hanke 7:55 Yes. James Connor 7:55 And then after a change in money supply, then you get a change in asset prices. And I guess we're starting to see that now, with this contraction in a lot of asset prices are coming down in value. Steve Hanke 8:07 Yes, right, right now, let's look. Well, there are lots of different kinds of asset prices, but one one of them happens to be the stock market. And if you look at the stock market right now. It's, it's, the valuations are very elevated. If you look at Bob Shiller Yale has, has the cape model, cyclically adjusted PE ratios and and that, by that measure, by the Schiller Cape measure. Right now, it's 35 times higher than the average over the past decade. So it's very high. There it's, it's, there are only three more expensive periods in time since, since the 19th century, given Schiller's measure, so very expensive. If the second kind of measure, some people don't like that measure that adjusts for inflation, and they have various critiques of it, so they want to go with the forward PE ratios. That's a more standard kind of thing. And if you look at that, the forward PES are very high. They're not as high as they were in 2000 or late in 2020 but they're, they're very high. So that's another measure, very expensive, very expensive. The third kind of standard model to look at is what to call the Fed model, where they look at the difference between bond yields and stock yields. And right now, stock yields are low compared to bond yields, and that indicates that the price of. Of stocks high, if their yields are low, especially relative to bonds, that's that's an again, indicating price pricey. So everything's consistent with a very elevated stock market right now. So I think what we're going to see if that's the case, and if there's monetary, Quantity Theory of Money is right, and we start slowing down. Top line revenues will slow down. The cost will continue to under, undermine margin, so their revenue is going down, and I think the margins will be going down, and well, we'll end up seeing a lot of these PES coming way off. I mean, they're set up to get hit. James Connor 10:56 and Steve, you mentioned that there was only three other times in history where we had higher valuations. When were those times? Steve Hanke 11:05 Oh, we go way, way back into the end of the 19th century. We, we, I think one, I think one of the three actually, was 1929, James Connor 11:17 and you mentioned earlier both the growth and the money supply, it peaked in 2021. Did you say 27% Steve Hanke 11:24 yes, year over year. In February, it was growing at 27% that, by the way, that that's the highest rate that it's ever grown at in the United States, sent with the Fed since 1913 that 27% year over year. Number is the highest reading we've ever had. James Connor 11:46 I'm glad you said that, because that was going to be my next question. And now we have a massive contraction. And maybe you can put that into perspective, force. How does this pull back in the money supply compared to other cycles? Steve Hanke 11:58 Well, again, there were only four. There was one in the late 40s, then one in 19 right after the Great Depression. There was another one. And then there was there was 2933 the Great Depression. And then there was one in the 1920s so you have to go away. You have to go back to the late 1940s to even find one. And then you go back into the 30s, and you've got two more. And then the 20s, you've got one. And that's it. And as I say, the significance of those as we would expect, we had a great depression, huge contraction in the money supply in 2933 and the other contractions were more moderate, somewhat like what we have now. But those all three led to recessions and to get this thing in people's head, what happens when the money supply changes, the nominal GDP changes, and the nominal GDP has two components. It has the price that's the price index and the real economic activity. So you've got an inflation component and a real component. If you add those two things together, you get the nominal number and it's it's a nominal thing that gets changed by changes in the money supply. James Connor 13:36 So you touched on this earlier, but let's just talk about the the consumer and the health of the consumer. And this contraction that we've seen in the money supply has caused a lot of pain, and I want to talk about the the health of the consumer, because that represents 70% of the GDP we've had weak numbers out of Amazon, Nike, McDonald's, Starbucks, even Airbnb and many airlines have said people are just not spending money this summer. And what's your sense when you look at all these numbers or all these companies that have been reporting their q2 numbers, what's your sense of the health of the US consumer? Steve Hanke 14:14 I think what's happened is that we had this huge balloon and excess amount of money in the system, and the consumer is pretty fat, but that that's been burned off, or early this summer, you all of that was kind of burned off. So, so now we're, let's put it this way, I think we're kind of running on fumes. That's what's going on. And I think there'll be adjustments downward and guidance, company guidance going forward, because I don't think most companies number one understand anything about macroeconomics. Makes and the quantity theory of money, I see very few that have any appreciation for that. And remember the consensus, I'm speaking as a minority spokesman for the recession. I Greenwood, and I think there'll be a recession and heavy slowdown late this year, early, 2025 the consensus does not agree with this. They, they think we'll have a soft landing. And the and the corporate chattering classes and analysts, they they think will have a soft landing too. So as a result of the fact that I think they're wrong, I'm certain they're wrong. I think their estimates and forward guidance are too high. Even though they've come down, they're coming down and are consistent with slowing down. I still think they're too high in general. James Connor 15:57 And to your point, Home Depot reported their numbers last week, and they cut guidance by three to 4% this year, and they're saying the consumer just is not coming back. So all that spending, or renovation spending that we saw back in 22 and 23 they're not doing it now. They're taking a break. And even Walmart said they actually came out with good numbers, but 60% of the revenues comes from groceries. So people are going there to seek value, and they're going there to purchase essentials, anything else, anything discretionary. People aren't spending money. That's my take. Steve Hanke 16:31 I think you got the right take. Now, Jimmy, I agree with you on that. Let me make another point, and that is, you said that consumption is about 70% of GDP. That's true. What you said is correct. And what you said is what every cat and dog in the world learns and Principles of Economics and what every journalist repeats over and over and over and over again, and it's a true statement. But What? What? What is GDP? GDP is the value of final goods and services in the economy. That's the end of the line. Kind of and consumption is a big part of that number, but an important thing to look at is something called gross output. And gross output is values all the transactions that go along in the supply chain as you start making something. In other words, when you buy a car and take it off the showroom lot that goes into GDP, that's a final price and final value of a good or a service that's being that's been produced. But what about all the transactions that went into the thing that the transactions that went into all the screws, the transmission, the engine that they had to buy, and the steel and everything else. So if you look at gross output that counts all those things, what you find is that consumption is only about a third of gross output. So consumption isn't what it's all put up to be there are lots of other things involved in looking at the economy. And I think a good way to look at it is with gross output. Now, my friend Mark Skousen has been, you know, pushing the idea of spending more time looking at gross output. And I agree with Skousen, and I've supported this gross output movement, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the United States, with a lot of lobbying that we did, actually reports now gross output, so, so you actually can get the number. Now, if you look at gross output and you look at GDP, right now, the rate of growth and gross output is done is lower than GDP, so that that that is usually a sign of a storm coming and a slowdown in the economy, because all those things in the supply chain that are going to produce things that we ultimately buy, that are ultimately countered in GDP, those things are slowing down So and that happens before you get a slowdown in final sales in GDP or or if you want to another measure, or final sales to domestic purchasers, that's another metric that is important to look at. But that's again, it's a fine. All number, and we find that gross output is it's, it's, it's, it's rate of change, and that is lower than GDP, or final sales to domestic purchasers. So that's another sign that's consistent with what monetary economics is telling us, that a slowdown is baked in the cake. James Connor 20:22 when you see the economy is slowing down and you see a recession on the horizon, how severe Do you think it'll be, given the given the what the economy has done here in the last few years, and the amount of money that the federal government has been spending and printing, is this going to be more severe than past recessions? Steve Hanke 20:40 I really don't know, and part of that depends on what the Fed actually does. Are they going to keep contracting, or are they going to are they going to basically start look paying attention to the money supply, which they don't pay any attention to it at all, by the way, they just focus on the interest rate. And it's kind of ironic because monetary policy, the interest rate is not a good indicator for monetary policy. The only indicator that counts is what's changing with the money supply. So the Fed does not look at the money supply. They, they, they explicitly have said Chairman Powell and and, and by the way, most of the other central bankers, whether it's the Bank of Canada where you are, or the Bank of England, European Central Bank there, they, they do not look at the money supply, and they don't pay attention to the quantity theory of money, so, so they kind of throw that aside. They focus on the interest rate and which is a big mistake. And by the way, that's the reason why they were never able to forecast the surge. We had an inflation and they've not not been able to forecast the sharp fall down in inflation that we've seen. The reason for that they don't have the right model. James Connor 22:10 So let's talk about the Fed in a little more detail. Jerome Powell and company. They are in Jackson, hole Wyoming, and he is going to speak, I believe, on Friday. Do you think we're going to hear any interesting commentary from the Fed or from Powell? Steve Hanke 22:27 No. How could, how could there be anything interesting coming out of if they, if they have the wrong model, they don't focus on the quantity theory of money, they haven't been right on inflation or anything else throughout the 20 to the 2000 to 2024 period, they've just been wrong, and they've snookered the public and the journalists. The journalists riot is if they're doing a great job, and they never blame the Fed or any of these other central banks for the inflation problems that we've had. They say, Oh, that was a supply side thing, and that was covid, and this, that and the other thing, they never mentioned the money supply ever. So I don't think that Chairman Paul will change his tune at all. And and what's coming down the pike is it looks like in the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, there's, you know, almost like a 75% chance priced into the Fed Funds Futures market that they'll decrease the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points. There's about a 25% probability that they'll increase, excuse me, decrease by 50 basis points. So they're going to make a change in September. The question is, is it going to be 25 the markets say that's the most likely thing, or 50, that's the least likely thing. James Connor 24:13 And it sounds to me like you think the Fed is way behind the curve, and that they are cutting it's almost too little too late. Steve Hanke 24:21 Oh, the Fed is always behind the curve because they're, they're, they're, they're data dependent, what they call data dependent. They look at the daily data that comes out and then make some kind of judgment about what they should be doing. So they look at the daily interest rate, daily stock market, prices, daily, credit spreads, exchange rates, daily, all of this daily stuff, but, but that, that daily stuff that comes out is all a function of what was going on with the money supply a long time ago, because the money. Supply effect comes into the daily data with with a big lag and, and it's a, it's not only a big lag, but it's a highly variable like too. It's not a, it's not a straightforward linear formula. It varies all over the place, but, but the main, the main thing and the reason people get so followed up looking at the markets and everything, they're watching what's coming out today, instead of looking at what was happening to the money supply yesterday or the day before yesterday, I should say they're not looking at the what happened to the money supply a year ago, or maybe even two years ago. James Connor 25:47 And Steve, when you look at, let's say, the price of oil, it's vacillating between 70 to $80 a barrel. And so price is not higher, given what's going on in the Middle East, etc. But and then you look at price of copper, it's close to $4 a pound. Both of these commodities are deemed to be barometers of the global economy because of their low prices. Do you think this is indicative of a slowing global economy? Steve Hanke 26:16 Yeah, yes, it's consistent with that. But what this means. Those are symptoms, not the cause. The cause is changes in the money supply. That's what's causing these symptoms, these key indicators like the oil price or the copper price, or aluminum or steel and these other basic commodities that causes them to shift around. So again, if you're data dependent, you're looking at those, but those are symptoms. They're not the causes. The cause is always a money supply. James Connor 26:58 Yeah, I guess the point I was trying to make was that if you have a slowing economy in the US, slowing economy in China, we really never know what's going on in China, but I think everybody would agree that it's definitely slowing down, and those are the two largest economies in the world, so therefore they're not as consuming as much oil. Steve Hanke 27:16 Oh, China is a very interesting case. The hankies golden growth rate for the money supply, growth in China is 11% per year, and that's consistent with China hitting its inflation target, which is 3% per year. Now, what's the growth rate in the money supply? It's about 6% it's almost half of what it should be. So international companies have indicated, oh, they've been surprised. The demand is very weak in China. Hanky is not surprised at all. That's exactly what I said was going to happen. And John Greenwood and I've done a lot of work on this, and the reason for it, the money supply is is not growing very fast. It's it should be growing, you know, almost twice as fast as it's growing if they were to hit the 3% inflation target. Why? Why is inflation almost zero? It's like a half a percent per year in China. It's because the money supply is growing very slowly. It's all about the money supply. It's always about the fuel and the economy. What why people can't get this through their heads is beyond me, but it's, it's the reason for it. I know it's a central bankers. The central bankers want to divert the public's attention away from them, because they don't want people to look at the money supply. Because who's responsible for the money supply? It's the central bankers. So if the money supply isn't behaving properly, and we have either slow down in inflation or growth. And inflation, the central bankers want to put our eyes on something else, and and they've been very successful at doing it. They almost have a monopoly on the press, by the way, the press just feeds at the trough of the central bankers. They repeat what the central bankers tell them. They spin it the way the central bankers spin it. And by the way, most of the analysts on Wall Street, you got a 25 year old analyst, I know what they know because I'm producing those people. Need, I say more. James Connor 29:43 well, they're trying to control the narrative. When I say they, I mean the Fed. Steve Hanke 29:47 they're controlling narrative and spin, and they don't want to get crossways with the Fed, because they want some kind of access to the Fed. Speak. You. Uh, and some kind of inside information and so forth. That's always the dream of any analyst. They you got to be close to the to the power and and what's the power? Well, the power is the central banker. So I want to play, because they James Connor 30:18 I want to play devil's advocate now, and I'm going to look at the q2 GDP number that came out recently, very strong at 2.8% and much stronger than the number in q1 which was 1.6% but somebody might look at that, you know, let's just say the Fed, or maybe some money in the Biden administration say, hey, the economy is doing great. No need for concern here. We're growing at close to 3% what would you say to that? Steve Hanke 30:46 Well, the first thing I would do, I'd say, yes, a number. The number looks pretty good. I mean, the number is the number. I There's no question about it. However, you can look at other things like gross output, and that gross output number is coming in in a sluggish way. And I would say to somebody who's obsessed with the GDP quarterly number, which, by the way, might be revised up or down. We don't know, but I would say, Well, now, what about gross output? What? What's going on that makes all those final goods and services that are accounted for by the GDP number? What's going on under the hood? And you get that by looking at gross output. And that, that doesn't look very bright, right? Now, that number is lower than the number for GDP. That's that's how I would react to it. I mean, if you want to play devil's advocate, you know, I can play that game too. James Connor 31:54 And so if I'm hearing you correctly, it sounds like the Fed and the government, they're going to put forth numbers that will make them look good. Steve Hanke 32:06 Well, the numbers are the numbers. They'll try to spin them to make them look good. And particularly, remember, we've got an election coming up in the United States in November, only a few months away. And believe me, the number one that those who manufacture the data are primarily Democrats, the civil servants, the civil services, is lorded with Democrats, not not Republicans. So what? What is the incumbent party in the United States, it's the Democratic Party, so they'll be trying to spin everything possible. Even the technocrats spin it as much as they can in a positive way. And the political appointees in the White House and throughout the US government, we know they will overtly be trying to spin it the right way. That's the name of the game. James Connor 33:04 That's politics. Steve Hanke 33:05 Spin that's spin James Connor 33:08 So, Steve, it sounds like, okay, the the economy is definitely slowing down. You think we're going to go into recession? You don't know how severe it's going to be, but we're definitely going into a recession if we're not already in one. But what would you suggest? How should investors prepare themselves for what might be coming? And I know you're not a strategist or a portfolio manager, but I would still like to hear your views. Steve Hanke 33:33 Maybe I'm not, but at one at one point, I was and when I was the president of Toronto trust Argentina and Buenos Aires. It was the world's best performing fund in 1995 now, there aren't many people you're going to interview who are the best performing fund manager in the world. It only happens to one each year, so it was a while ago. But at any rate, I haven't completely hung up my spurs. I have been very keen on one pretty safe investment, and that's the 10 year US government bond. And when I started recommending that and bought it, it was the yield is, you know, almost 5% and now it's, it's below 4% so it's, it's changed a lot. And when the yield goes down, the price goes up. So not only you got a nice yield, but you got a huge capital gain and and I still think there's juice in that lemon. So, so the 10 year is still a good thing now. Now, why is there still juice in the lemon? Because interest rates follow inflation, and if I think inflation. Population is going down, and that downward number is baked in the cake, as John Greenwood and I have continually made the forecast on that. That means the yield on the 10 year is going to come down some more. So there's there's still a good yield, and there'll be a nice little capital gain in that. So that's a pretty safe investment. As far as stocks go, we've already gone through this. There's essentially nothing to buy this cheap. So So you wouldn't be adding to a position. You'd be wanting, you'd be very and where I told you I thought the market was going to be going in the recession. You want to be in a position where you're, you know, watching things pretty carefully and lightening up. I mean, look, look, look at old Warren Buffett. He's, he's made tremendous lightning up. He's bought a few things that he thought were they? But on balance, he's been lightening up and Berkshire Hathaway now actually holds more treasury bills than the US Fed does. Berkshire is holding a bigger inventory of us bills. And the Fed, so that that should tell you something, you know, get ready to light, lighten the ship a bit as as you, as you, you know, you keep, keep riding the wave, maybe with good things that you have, if thing, if you aren't particularly happy with things, I get rid of bonds, switch into the 10 year, or even, or even, or even cash. James Connor 36:52 Now, if the Fed does start cutting aggressively as we go into 2025 that's going to be that's going to hit the dollar. The dollar, the dollar is going to come off, but that's going to be very good for the price of gold. Any views on the price of gold, Steve Hanke 37:05 it's going up. We've talked about this before. I've been a gold bull for a long time. So it did make a new high, of course, the last few days. So you want some gold in there for also long term, I I've always liked agricultural land. So that would be the gist of it. Gold the 10 year. Keep writing your good stocks, but be in a position you want to, you want to be lightening up a little bit. Don't get yourself all worked up and panic and sell everything you've got. You know, nothing like that. But I would just in the stock market, I would suggest that people look at look at Berkshire Hathaway, and what Buffett's done in the in the last six months he's he's been in a lightening up accumulating cash mode. So I would be in a lightning up accumulating cash mode. I I think, I think Buffett thinks the market's very pricey, and I think he's anticipating that he kind of, you know, he's he's out there in Omaha, Nebraska, that's where I grew up. I grew up about in Iowa, Southwest Iowa, about 45 miles from Omaha and and, and one thing you learn how to do out there, you can see a storm rolling in on the horizon, and I think Buffett sees a storm rolling in. James Connor 38:47 I like that analogy. Steve Hanke 38:51 I do too. I can understand it. I like things I can understand, Jimmy James Connor 38:58 Steve, judging by your library. You're a very prolific reader. Are you reading any interesting business books public? Steve Hanke 39:07 Yes, I'm actually finishing three, and one I'm writing with Matt Sukie called Making money work. Our due date for that manuscript at Wiley is in November. So I'm reading the manuscript because I'm writing the manuscript of Matt So, so that's, that's, that's one, another one that I've co authored with Leland Yeager will be coming out shortly. And I just received the galley proofs last week, last Thursday, and I think that will be out in September. Paul great McMillan's Public. Chant Leland, Yeager, Steve H Hanke. It's a book on capital theory and monetary economics. That's that sort of thing. And another book that Kurt Schuler and I are have finished is on currency boards, which is a real treatise. We've been working on that for about 30 years, 35 years. It's been a long pregnancy, but it's a great manuscript. I think it would be the final word on that subject, and especially in emerging market economies, that's going to be a good read. Beyond that, the thing that's the most important book actually just came out. It's free Institute for Economic Affairs in London, my friend Tim Condon, it's a quantity theory of money. The book's called the quantity theory of money. It's a short book, but it's a classic. And what we're talking about all this money supply and how it relates to the economy and everything. Tim Condon, the quantity theory of money, Institute for Economic Affairs on London, free online. It's it's, it's Rick, it'll be required reading of my students this fall. You asked me about the fall starting. I mean, that's, that's the new thing that's coming in the fall for the students. The other book I'm going to have them read is a book called the checklist, and that's been out for a while, but the checklist, the reason I'm having read that the quantity theory of money, okay, we know why I'm having him read that, because that's the essence of macroeconomics is all contained in that book. But the checklist is important book, because most young people. And in fact, I think most people just have problems acute executing things. It's all about execution, and and, and so the checklist really goes through, as it implies, a checklist of how to get things done, how to execute, how to deliver, and so that's this. That's kind of the the two legged stool my students will be on. It's very important. They'll be reading these manuscripts that I've written, but James Connor 42:34 I might have to get that book from my kids. Steve Hanke 42:37 Oh yeah, that's a, that's a must read. It's, it's very readable. Congdon's An ex banker, Professor, monetarist, one of one of the great monetarists in the world, one of, one of the ones who, by the way, has been able to forecast the British economy with very accurately for decades, is Congdon. And like Greenwood myself, we I think, I think Congdon was even before Greenwood mine forecasting the coming inflation and the in the United States. And I was just talking about China. He's just written on China and as Greenwood and I have concluded it's headed down, which is very important, by the way, for things like the commodity markets. Because remember, at least on a purchasing power parity basis, China is even bigger than the United States the economy, it's a little bit bigger, and it's a tail that wags a dog in the commodity markets, because they really have a voracious appetite for commodities. James Connor 43:58 Well, Steve, that was a great discussion, and I want to thank you very much for being with us today. And as we wrap up, if someone would like to learn more about you and see your thoughts on the economy, where can they go? Steve Hanke 44:09 Twitter at Steve underscore, hanke, I'm up to 761,000 followers. I think it's the third highest of any any economist in the world. That's so that's one place, and also that they could welcome to write me and get on my distribution list to send me an email at hanky, H, A, n, k, e, at, j, h, u.edu, that's my Hopkins email. James Connor 44:41 you got a lot of followers. I'm only at 3000 so it looks like I got a long way to go. Steve Hanke 44:48 Keep your nose to the grindstone. Jimmy, you'll get there James Connor 44:53 once again. Steve, thank you. Steve Hanke 44:55 Oh, you're welcome. Thank you for inviting me. Great to be with you Jimmy, James Connor 44:59 well, I hope. You enjoyed that discussion with Steve Hanke and providing you with some insights on what to expect in the coming months. We all need help when it comes to planning and preparing for our financial future, especially when we're going through uncertain times like we're going through right now. If you have a financial advisor and you're happy with them, then stick with them. That's great. But if you want another financial advisor. Maybe you want a second opinion. Consider having a discussion with a wealthion endorsed financial advisor@wealthion.com it's a free service that wealthion offers to anyone who has an interest. You can find out more information@wealthion.com thank you very much for being with us today, and I look forward to seeing you again soon. And if you have any suggestions on anyone else you want to see on the channel, let us know in the comment section below. Once again, thank you.
