Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, reveals why crypto, AI, and exponential technologies are set to reshape the global economy—and why time is running out to act. In this thought-provoking Speak Up interview with Anthony Scaramucci, Raoul shares bold predictions, including Bitcoin’s potential to reach $450K, and explores how AI and blockchain are transforming industries. Don’t miss Raoul’s practical takeaways, insights on thriving in the age of innovation, and a roadmap to protecting and growing your wealth during the biggest economic revolution of our time.
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Raoul Pal 0:00
We’ve got six years left to make as much money as we can before we don’t understand how the economy works anymore.
Anthony Scaramucci 0:05
Is it too late in crypto? It’s
Raoul Pal 0:07
a $3 trillion industry. If we just extrapolate the trend rate of growth and the number of wallets and all of that stuff, we get to 100 trillion by 2034, we’re 3% of the way there. You gotta fight yourself in this market, it’s always your own psychology as your most your worst enemy when it just feels the worst, that’s when he should be putting as much money in as you can.
Anthony Scaramucci 0:37
Hi. Welcome to speak up. I’m your host, Anthony Scaramucci, and I have my handsome guest and good friend, Raul, pal, and I just point out that the women in this office are crushing on you. So if your wife listens to these things she needs to know, step up your game, girl. All right. Now, Raul is the founder and CEO global macro investor, and also the founder of Real vision, so many different things, though, prominent entrepreneur, investment strategist, former hedge fund manager, former Goldman Sachs employee in London, known for investing in crypto, Bitcoin, particularly Bitcoin, other insights and macro trends. But truth be told, I just think you’re an awesome guy, and you are ahead of the curve. You’ve seen things before other people, and now other people are starting to see the things that you have seen. And so the question is, where do we go now? So let’s start there. I want to start with Bitcoin first, if you don’t mind. So
Raoul Pal 1:36
as I’m talking horizon, give me a time horizon as well, because I could, yeah, so I’m going
Anthony Scaramucci 1:40
to say to you, over the next three to six months, what happens to Bitcoin, and then what happens to Bitcoin over the next five years? And then I want you to go into the macro, but I want to start with Bitcoin, because I think it’s important. I’m talking to you where bitcoin is at 92,000 you’re also talking to a person that did buy Bitcoin at 68,000 November of 2021 wrote it down to 17,000 so you’re talking to a battle torn, scarred human being.
Raoul Pal 2:10
Did you add to your trade when it went lower?
Anthony Scaramucci 2:13
I did. No, absolutely no. I absolutely did. No, no, no, then
Raoul Pal 2:16
it works wonders, right? No, no, no, I
Anthony Scaramucci 2:18
added. No, no, no, I’ve been, I’ve been a consistent buyer every month of Bitcoin since October of 2020 and even in the down times when I thought I was getting to get creamed, I was nibbling, I can’t say I was buying as much in my over confident, zealous 68,000 prints, I was less confident at 17,000 isn’t that how human nature works? Well,
Raoul Pal 2:43
always you gotta fight yourself in this market. It’s always your own psychology as your most your worst enemy. I’ve learned from being in this cycle for so long that really, if you can, when it just feels the worst, that’s when you should be putting as much money in as you can. Obviously it’s also the hardest time, because nobody’s got money, because liquidity is being drawn out of the system, everyone’s feeling the pinch. So it’s actually hard to scrape pennies from under the sofa, but it is the best strategy of all, because your gains compound so fast when you do it
Anthony Scaramucci 3:14
well, well, I, I, I’m with you on that. I’ve learned that in my old age, I tell younger people just nibble at things, make an investment every month and don’t look at it. Pay yourself first. But where’s Bitcoin going to be three six months? And then give me your five year outlook?
Raoul Pal 3:31
Yeah. I mean, I try not to give price projections, and I know you always pin them out of me. But the point being is, you know, we’re very public on social media, and it’s just people pin their hopes and dreams on a number you give them. But my general thesis is we will rally into year end. We will correct at some point. There’s a bunch of hedge funds and raas and others who are into this who will need to take a bit of profits into year end. I think we’ll get a bit of a shake out global liquidity slowing down somewhat, and then we should re accelerate into the end of tax season. So my view is, Bitcoin easily gets to 100 this year, and probably, probably is, you know, 150 plus by March, before it corrects again. And then we finish the year after a larger correction with a very strong rally into the end. So that’s that’s how I think it plays out probabilistically. So
Anthony Scaramucci 4:25
when you say correction, we’re at 150 it corrects back to 80. Yeah,
Raoul Pal 4:29
maybe something like that, yeah, maybe less, maybe 30% correction. So back down to 100 make sense to me. And it’ll feel miserable. And people say, has the cycle peaked and all of that noise, right? And then, usually we end the second year after the presidential election cycle, very strong, and then it peaks out sometime there.
Anthony Scaramucci 4:52
Okay, so if I give a
Raoul Pal 4:55
range of targets, I suppose pinpointing a target, worst case is 150 My base case is 250 and in an obscene bull market because everybody’s buying, driven by a change of regulation, then it could go as high as 450
Anthony Scaramucci 5:09
Okay, let’s go to Solana. I want to ask you the same questions related to Solana, because I know you’re a bull there. Yeah.
Raoul Pal 5:16
So I think Solana finishes this year closer to 400 than it is to 200
Andrew Brill 5:22
so I think this year, six weeks ago, maybe
Raoul Pal 5:25
350 I mean, it’s a higher beta asset, so it should do better. So expect that to happen. I’m I think again, it follow the same kind of price path as Bitcoin, but it should outperform all of the way it’s been in this consolidation versus Bitcoin sideways consolidation. The next leg should be altcoin season, and Solana should be the king of the major alts. So I’m kind of expecting Solana from here to probably get to over 1012 1250, something like that,
Anthony Scaramucci 6:02
right? Last one, Ethereum, um,
Raoul Pal 6:06
Ethereum has been a laggard. I think it plays some catch up. I think it out forms Bitcoin going forwards for a bit. Because, you know, if we sit back and look at what the regulatory changes might be, that is the platform upon which most of the institutions will start doing stuff. It’s the Microsoft decision. You know, every bank has Microsoft computers, not Apple computers. So I think that Ethereum actually does better than most people expect going into the end of the year. Again, same price pattern outperforms Bitcoin, Solana outperforms Ethereum. So it’s the risk curve.
Anthony Scaramucci 6:38
I want to go to the macro economy for a second, so I don’t know. Maybe I’m crazy. The US voter says they don’t like the economy, but when I look at the economic data, and maybe I’m insulated because I’ve made a decent amount of money. I don’t say that to be arrogant or anything like that. Maybe I’m insulated. Maybe I’ve lost my touch with the common person, but wages are rising. Unemployment is at an all time low, stock markets at an all time high. General numbers like ppi, etc, manufacturing look good to me. They don’t look bad. Feds cutting rates. So what am I mean? What are people so upset about? And obviously they voted it’s been anti incumbency throughout the West, that’s right, and so no surprise that the incumbent was voted out. But what? So what do you think
Raoul Pal 7:29
two factors here? One is, inflation has slowed down, but the prices have stuck, you know? And that’s a hard thing for people to take. We all complain every time we go to a restaurant, you go to the supermarket, really is this the prices I’m paying these days. And people haven’t made that back. And the one reason we haven’t really made it back is the business cycle. So if we look at the ISM survey, the Institute of Supply Manager survey, which is the guide to the global business cycle, it’s actually been below 50, which means it’s in sort of contraction for the longest period in history. Now, I think so there’s something going on with the economy, and I think it’s because the Fed took so long to raise rate. It’s a cut rates because they were fighting the inflation demon of the past. They took too long, and that’s kept a bulk of the economy slow. So if you translate that to the ordinary person. If you’re running a sandwich shop in Manhattan, or you’re running a, you know, a dry cleaners in Chicago, you’re not seeing the money come in yet. You’re not seeing growth. Your business grow now, the forward looking indicators suggest we will get that and we’ll get strong growth coming forwards. But really, to get that business cycle turning, we still need the Fed to cut further.
Andrew Brill 8:43
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Anthony Scaramucci 9:25
Okay, so we’re gonna have a good four year. I feel like, I feel like, let me, let me channel Joe Biden, at least when Joe Biden’s not sundowning, let me channel him. I’m gonna take the sunglasses off and channel him and say, you know, I inherited a little bit of a mess post COVID. I cleaned it up. I gave the Fed good general direction. They tightened up rates, tamed inflation. I had three or four big legislative accomplishments. I’m reassuring microprocessor foundries. I’ve got the manufacturing act that’s helping us reshore manufacturing. I. And cleaning up the bridges, roads and tunnels. Through the inflation Reduction Act, costs of Good Services are going to go lower because of those things. I’ve set this thing up nicely for the incoming president.
Raoul Pal 10:12
Is that how he feels? I think he probably would, you know, if he’d say, you know, what was the one thing he didn’t need that probably lost in the election. It was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, right? Because that was put the last leg of prices higher,
Anthony Scaramucci 10:24
right? You know, oil prices, oil prices to oil prices
Raoul Pal 10:28
and food prices, because of the disruptions to the supply chain that came from all of that, because of everything from Russian fertilizers through to natural gas. So I think if we would look back and say, You know what really went wrong in an economy that was doing decently well. It was that, and that led the Fed to keep rates higher than normally would have done, and that’s what really cost him a lot of the election,
Anthony Scaramucci 10:54
right? Okay, so let’s talk about Mr. Trump for a second, the president, President elect Trump, what could go right and what could go wrong?
Raoul Pal 11:09
So on the right side, I think freeing up of the economy, if he does fulfill the role that some people expect him to do, which is the Reagan style, deregulation, freeing up of the economy, bringing back kind of industry, back to the US, and allowing technology to move forward and crypto to move forward, you’re going to potentially reignite the US economy. The flip side is, there’s a big debate about tariffs. Are they going to be inflationary? The other issue people don’t realize is tariffs plus reduced deficit spending means less dollars in the global system, means a strong dollar, which is slows down world growth and creates other problems. So I think if there’s anything, it’s on that side. It’s on, you know, his policies that he talks about now a very, very strong dollar, and strong dollar generally slows world growth pretty badly, and that could screw things up. So let’s wait and see, but it means that the US can’t export so easily. If that’s the case, obviously.
Anthony Scaramucci 12:14
Okay, what do you think about the relationship that the United States is going to have with the other Western democracies in Trump too. And how will that, if at all, impact the economy?
Raoul Pal 12:29
I think it is more isolationist. And we’ve seen, you know, Trump one was isolationist. I don’t see Trump two not being isolationist. So I think that creates friction, obviously, with the EU trades friction with China, and I think it’s just going to force that trend that we have seen even under Biden. You know, the inflation Reduction Act was partly to do with this. Is we’re just going to have to come home with our manufacturing and have less supply chains. So it’s going to create a bit of hostility. But as you said, all of the governments are changing now anyway. Now the UK has just flipped super left after being right. It looks like Germany is going to flip right from being left. You know, it’s very difficult to deal with what set of leaders have, what set of we don’t have a cohesive world view right now. So it is going to feel more isolation, isolationist, I think, than you know, let’s say under the Clinton years and even the Bush years, where we had a pretty strong world view. We don’t have that anymore. It
Anthony Scaramucci 13:32
is, is Donald Trump going to get rid of the Central Bank of the United States? No,
Raoul Pal 13:38
I think that’s all rhetoric to appease the the libertarians. I don’t think he wants to do that and can do that. I don’t think the system is even ready for it yet. You know, we don’t, yeah, so I think not. I think that’s more rhetoric than anything else.
Anthony Scaramucci 13:54
Is Donald Trump going to put 1 million Bitcoins on the balance sheet of the United States, on the federal reserve balance sheet first.
Raoul Pal 14:04
I think this is a bit of a red herring, because as the world’s reserve currency, you don’t need to hold reserves in anything else, right? So that’s why the book The US doesn’t hold a basket of euros and yen and other shit. Doesn’t need to it’s the world reserve currency. So they don’t actually need currency reserves or or national reserves. They have a legacy of gold, of which we don’t know how much is there. So the way to do this is probably to say, well, any bitcoin or cryptocurrency that’s been seized, we’ll put it in the reserve. And that’s a way of appeasing the crypto crowd without I mean, there’s no point to have a reserve. I mean, maybe they do. Maybe they think that that’s going to help them, but the worst thing it’s going to do is just strengthen the dollar even further, and that that is not good. A very strong dollar is a wrecking ball for the rest of the world. And without global trade and global demand, everyone goes through a recession, so you got to kind of be careful of what you wish for.
Anthony Scaramucci 15:07
Okay, this is why I love talking to you, by the way, because you think of things that I don’t think of, which is why I like being on TV with you. Okay, let’s go to the what we’re calling the exponential age, which is the rapid advancement of AI, blockchain and other technologies. So, Mr. Paul, you think there’s a boom coming, right? There’s a techno boom coming. It’s
Raoul Pal 15:31
a techno boom and it’s unstoppable. It’s going to be so fast we don’t know how to deal with it. Am
Anthony Scaramucci 15:36
I going to be taller as a result of this? No, is this? Jan, no,
Raoul Pal 15:40
it might be possible. There is hope for you, yeah, hope for me yet. Okay, there is hope for you yet. I
Anthony Scaramucci 15:47
think that’s, I think that’s why I have a little bit of jealousy towards you. Is not only you’re good looking, but you’re a tall son of a bitch. Okay, tell us about the exponential age. Go ahead.
Raoul Pal 15:55
So look, it’s this nexus of all of these technologies, all hitting adoption effects at the same time. You can see that in front of your eyes with crypto that’s what number go up. But AI, we can see that every three months is like a groundbreaking set of new models, whether it’s video, audio, or just the models themselves or the applications of it. We’re seeing the robots coming we’ve seen the Optimus robots. We’ve seen the robots coming out of China. We’re seeing Tesla cars we’re seeing, I mean, it’s just endless. We’re seeing Amazon employing more robots than humans now, and that’s accelerating. Then we’ve got the biotechnology stuff. We’ve got, you know, Google, with their with their Alpha fold, which is the AI based around predicting protein sequences, and what that can do for humanity. We’re seeing so much all happening at the same time. EV, I mean, nobody realizes, because it becomes politicized. But solar growth, the growth of solar power, is more than all of other energy generation added together and doubled. People don’t realize how fast this technology is moving as well, and how much the prices are coming down. So all of these things mean the price of computers going lower, the price of energy and electricity will go lower over time. Nuclear can be thrown into that, and then you’ve got aI which is driving exponential compute, which ends up with infinite human knowledge. All of these things are so disruptive we can’t get our heads around them, and it’s quite difficult to invest in a lot of it, a lot of it is in VC hands or in these giant tech companies. So you’ve got this fastest growing technology in all history. What are you supposed to buy? Microsoft? Yeah, you might double your money or triple your money, but it’s, it’s not really commensurate with that. So the crypto side of the equation, because the whole new internet is being built on crypto rails. I mean, the AI will have identity, and we will have identity on chain. You know, many of the things you and I have talked about the larger use of blockchain as a technology, well, that’s front and center. So actually, I actually think we’ve got six years, and this is quite contentious, I think we’ve got six years left to make as much money as we can before we don’t understand how the economy works anymore. We’ve got if an economy is driven by if economic trend, rate of economic growth is driven by population growth plus productivity growth and debt growth. By the time you change this aging population, which is slowing trend, rate of GDP down. Replace that with infinite robots and infinite AI. We’ve replaced the population component, same with productivity. By lowering energy costs, we end up with ridiculous growth. I mean, what are financial markets with AGI? So I think we’ve got six years. So actually, we do a lot of this on real vision. So anybody watching this real vision.com? Forward slash, join there’s a whole stuff around the six years. It’s really important. I think we’ve got six years to invest, to save our futures, or cement our futures.
Unknown Speaker 18:56
Let’s go to questions. I
Anthony Scaramucci 19:03
Raul and Anthony, what advice would you give young people just starting in finance to have a great career like yours? That’s Ryan from California, so go ahead,
Raoul Pal 19:12
Sharon, give this advice. I give this advice to a lot of friends kids, because they’re like, I want to go into finance. I’m like, finance is a secularly declining industry. You know, if I was comparing notes with a mate of mine who’s just left finance at the same age, I was earning three times as much money as them. The amount of opportunity in finance keeps going down as guess what AI technology replaces humans in the trading floors and in investment banking across I would not go into finance. If you’re going to go into finance, go into crypto. Crypto is a secular trend going up, the fastest of all, as opposed to a secular trend going down, which is the traditional finance system. So if you want to apply your finance understanding, you want to do. Investing. You want to think about macro, do it in crypto, and it’ll change your life. The key to anybody’s career is find a secular trend and ride that you you and I rode the same secular trend. Hedge funds was a huge trend, as was finance at the time, and on my side, it was equity derivatives, which was a huge trend, and we rode those. It makes us look geniuses, even though I’m certainly not a genius, you’re smarter. You got to, you went to Harvard or somewhere. I didn’t,
Anthony Scaramucci 20:24
I did. I did go to Harvard. And don’t hold it against me, because, you know, in some ways, it stunts your ability to see things. You know, you get you know Ross Perot. You’re old enough to remember Ross Perot, the legendary entrepreneur who also ran for president in 1992 he said something that I’ll never forget. Raul, he said, at Harvard Business School, when I was there, he said, I feel bad for you babies. Why do you feel bad for us? He said, You’re at Harvard. You’re at Harvard. You were successful in the first part of your life. You’re not going to take any risks. You’re not going to do anything stupid or crazy, and left the big impression on me. I left that meeting and said, I’m for stupid and I’m for crazy, and that’s why I’m a bitcoiner like you. But is it too late? Is it too late in crypto? No,
Raoul Pal 21:13
it’s a, it’s currently, today, a $3 trillion industry. Think of this scale. It’s a $3 trillion industry, if we just extrapolate the trend rate of growth and the number of wallets and all of that stuff, we get to 100 trillion by 2034 we’re 3% of the way there. We’ve got 97 trillion of wealth to create in this space. We’ve barely started. I know we all use that phrase, you know, we’re so early, but the adoption of this technology is the financial system starts to operate on its rails. So you have instant settlement for equities and bonds and all of that, the transfer payments, even central bank digital currencies, are on these rails. Everything folds into these rails, our ID, gaming worlds, all of these things. Well, if it’s if we’re 3% of the journey it’s all to play for. This is the biggest trend we’ve ever had. Let’s
Anthony Scaramucci 22:04
go to the next question. From a macro perspective, what roadblocks it delivering on campaign promises? Do you foresee the Trump 2.0 administration encountering in the first year? This is Maureen from Pennsylvania.
Raoul Pal 22:18
Well, this is more one for you to answer, because I don’t really know you’re more used to the internet,
Anthony Scaramucci 22:24
I guess. I guess, what I would say to Maureen and others is that there are systems and formal processes in place that slowed down the last trump administration, you know, and will likely slow down this administration. Now the administration is trying to hop over some certain systems. They don’t want to do FBI background checks. They want the Senate to immediately confirm their people with very little deliberation in the Senate body and things like that. But I don’t think the system set up like that. You know, if you like Donald Trump and you see him as an agent for change, he will make changes. But the truth be told, that system in Washington has a very big immunity. The immunological system to reject an antigen like Donald Trump is in place, going to make it hard for him. So I don’t think a lot’s going to change. Raul, I think on the margin, some things will maybe a tax cut here or there, maybe, maybe an eliminate, elimination of the salt deduction, which he’s saying, you know, he’s going to do, allow us to return back to deducting our state and local income taxes. I don’t know. We’ll, we’ll see. I don’t.
Raoul Pal 23:38
I kind of, uh, that same way as well. Is the political process is a quagmire. And you can say a lot, but what ends up getting done is much less. So think of Obama. He got a clear mandate. He struggles after the you know, even after the midterms, after the first year, it’s just really hard to get stuff done. So we’ll see. Okay, let’s
Anthony Scaramucci 23:59
go to the next one. Raul, what would be India’s stock market situation in the next three months, or long term? Manisha, from India.
Raoul Pal 24:09
So if we think about that, that trend rate of GDP formula, Okay, questions for
Anthony Scaramucci 24:14
me. Raul, really, because I’m, I’m the Indian on this, I’m kidding. Go ahead. Keep going.
Raoul Pal 24:18
If the trend rate of GDP is driven by population growth, or working age population growth, plus productivity growth plus debt growth. Indian households have low debt. Indian Government has decent amounts of debt. Households are low leverage. Productivity is going to be from building roads, putting in the the infrastructure that’s required. And population growth comes from the fact that the average age is 28 this is like golden demographics. So India, over a long term time horizon is very good. The only thing that can upset that apple cart for a while would be a very strong dollar, but it’s being offset currently by falling oil prices, which is the big. Input for India. So I’ve just, I’ve been bullish India for a decade. It’s been the best performing market in the world for a long time now. So keep going.
Anthony Scaramucci 25:08
All right, let’s fire in another question. What is your outlook for financial markets in the next year? Ajit from Canada, that’s for you, my brother. Up. Up. Yeah, I agree. I don’t see anything stopping this. And lots of earnings, by the way, lots of earnings, UPS, up, upside, surprises. Let’s go to the next question. What are your thoughts on AI’s potential impact on job markets, especially in finance and other knowledge industries? This is Lisa from the UK.
Raoul Pal 25:41
So firstly, we will notice that as the business cycle expands this time around, they’ll hire less people. You know, investment banks generally, when times are good, start piling on the people and then fire a bunch of them. I think we’ll see less of that. So and then when it comes to the downturns, they’ll just be cutting leaner. So I think the number of people working in finance and knowledge industries, lawyers, accountants, paralegals, all of those kind of things, will just be declining as a percentage of the of the overall workforce. I don’t think there’s a mass layoff, you know, we’re all firing our lawyers. I just think as firms grow over time, naturally with the economy, they’ll just hire less and less people, which is also fine, because we’ve got an aging population, so a lot of people are falling out of the labor force. But yeah, that’s definitely the case. So I think unemployment, it’s starting to rise a little bit. It probably remains stickier for longer, and then the next cycle, it picks up a bit more. It’s just this slow change. You know, it’s not like the steel mills in Pittsburgh shut down overnight. It’s a process. Yeah, it’s not an instant thing.
Anthony Scaramucci 26:56
Yep, I agree with you on all those things. Let’s go to the next question. Why do assets like lower price houses increase in value in line with liquidity and depreciating dollar? Why do assets like lower price houses increase in value in line with extra liquidity and depreciating dollar? Yeah,
Raoul Pal 27:14
so from New York. So what happens is, when you debase a currency, you don’t really see it. What happens is, it looks like assets are rising, but they’re actually not. It’s because the purchasing power of your dollar is going down. So you’re earning, working your ass off every day, earning money, and you can buy less of a share of a house all the time. That’s because earnings are not driven by debasement, because there are variable input, but this fixed asset, gold, real estate, crypto equities, are all scarce assets, art, wine, and they all keep going up. So that’s why one of the reasons the rich get richer and the poor get poorer in this environment is this process of debasement. So what you’re seeing is that house prices, they’re not going up or down in value. It’s the purchasing power of the dollar that’s going down in value. That’s the real issue here. That’s why we saw the 50% decline rise in house prices everywhere in 2020, 2021, why? Because we printed a massive amount of money so it made the dollar less, what? Less valuable.
Anthony Scaramucci 28:20
Okay, let’s keep going. What do you think about gold? Rose from Florida.
Raoul Pal 28:27
Gold is is also driven by monetary debasement, and it follows global m2 essentially. So I don’t think the basement goes away because we’ve got to pay the interest on the debts and service the existing debts. So gold probably goes higher. I just like gold less than crypto, because it’s a similar trade, but crypto has a much, much higher beta and a higher risk adjusted return, but gold should be fine.
Anthony Scaramucci 28:53
All right, let’s keep going that right? You know, that’s it. You exhausted the questions, okay, and I don’t know. What is it? Ro Is it the smile? Is it the accent? Is it the salt and pepper hair? What is it that we creates this charisma about you? What do you think it is? I
Raoul Pal 29:11
don’t it’s probably, it’s probably just a smile in English. When
Anthony Scaramucci 29:13
I, when I do my health and beauty show on the wealthion network, you’ll be my first guest. How’s that? Uh,
Raoul Pal 29:22
yeah. So what are you what are you thinking about markets? I’m going to pick your brains.
Anthony Scaramucci 29:27
Well, I’m going to the biggest thing that I’m worried about, which I’ve always been worried about in my career, is when I’m not worried. Yeah. And so there’s an unknown, unknown, but I don’t know. I don’t know they’re going to detonate a nuke somewhere that I don’t expect is, are they going to launch missiles into Iran? But there’s something else. There’s a booby trap somewhere that we don’t see. You know, my fear Raul is that I can’t see what’s wrong. You know, one of my. Very, very close friends, who’s a big bitcoiner, and I just wrote a book sailor. Wrote the introduction, little book of Bitcoin. I sent you an invite to the book party. Wanna. One of my friends said to me, I can’t figure out what’s gonna go wrong, which makes me worry something’s gonna go wrong. You know, markets climb walls of worry. Where they don’t climb is walls of exuberance, because the exuberance gets overly priced in, you know. But I do think that there’s a sea change happening right now, and there’ll be a lease for this first six months of next year, a big leg up in the markets. Yeah, I
Raoul Pal 30:39
probably agree, if we were to have a big event. Now, what’s interesting to me is I actually don’t think we can have recessions because of debasement of currency. A recession is really triggered, triggered by credit events. Generally, it’s when your collateral goes down too much versus the debts, and that’s when the credit cycle plays in but if you debase the currency, then the collateral doesn’t go down. So we didn’t get a recession in 2022 staggering, right? Nobody would have said that. Nobody. Now, if I go back and be honest with myself, I don’t think 2020 would have been a recession without a pandemic either, right? And look how fast they turned it around. So I think something has structurally changed. So if you said to me, Well, what happens if China invades Taiwan? I will say the markets will fall for about a week, and then we’ll go up in a straight line, because they’re just going to inject more liquidity, right? Interesting. And so that’s a weird world we live in, where actually these things are short term downside risks and then maximum upside risk.
Anthony Scaramucci 31:42
That’s weird. I love it. All right, my brother, it’s great to have you on all right. I’ll see you
Raoul Pal 31:47
soon. Always good to see. Yeah, see you in person somewhere.
Andrew Brill 31:49
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