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Jared Dillian shares his urgent predictions on oil, inflation, the Fed, and the impact that the 2024 election could have on the economy. In this episode, host Andrew Brill is joined by Jared Dillian —author, trader, musician, entrepreneur, and educator. Jared discusses the pressing financial topics of today, including the potential impact of the upcoming election on oil prices, the current state and future of inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts. He also shares his bold predictions on market volatility and offers invaluable advice on how to protect your investments in these uncertain times. Sign up to receive Jared’s free weekly newsletter every Thursday:

Jared Dillian  0:00  
The curve is steep in 20 or 30 basis points, maybe less. And that really, it happened after after right after the debate. Right after Biden's poor performance, the market started pricing in Trump. And everybody knows that the one Trump trade is the yield curve steep enter, because Trump will exert a lot of influence on the Fed and influence them to bring the bring Fed Funds lower the front end of the yield curve lower and also he will spend in half tariffs, and that'll push the back end of the yield curve higher on on inflation concerns. So everybody knows that the Trump trade is a steep winner. And it's worked over the last couple of weeks, it really has a long way to go. I'm kind of doing the poor man's version of the steepen. Or I'm doing one leg of it. I'm just doing the front end of the curve.

Andrew Brill  0:58  
I'd like to welcome back Jared Dillian to wealthion .Jared is an author, trader, a musician, entrepreneur and educator. 

Jared I trust you had a safe holiday weekend?

Jared Dillian  1:12  
Oh, yeah, it was good. You know, went out to the pool, went to the beach, stuff like that, you know, got a little sun. So it was healthy. 

Andrew Brill  1:22  
Excellent. Before we get going, I want to know how the newest book is doing "No Worries: how to solve a stress free financial life." Sure we can all learn a thing or two about having no financial worries. 

Jared Dillian  1:31  
Yeah, I would say you know, the books been out about six months, and it's sold pretty well, for six months. And just in the last couple of weeks, it started to tail off a little bit. So but it's it's done very well. It's done very well. I'm super happy with it. And the new book is actually coming out in October, which is night moves. It's a short story collection. So I'm super excited about that. 

Andrew Brill  1:58  
Is that your short stories? 

Jared Dillian  2:00  

Andrew Brill  2:00  
Stuff that you've done? 

Jared Dillian  2:01  

Andrew Brill  2:02  
Excellent. We look forward to that coming out. And we'll have to have you back maybe even before that, to talk about the book and see how that one's going. So Jared, I want to ask you, what's your overall take right now of the economy? I know, that's a broad question. But I'm gonna ask anyway.

Jared Dillian  2:19  
Well, things are slowing down pretty significantly. I mean, so we got payrolls on Friday, which was kind of sandwiched between July 4 and the weekend. And a lot of people weren't around. It wasn't a terribly strong payroll report. And you really have to go back to the previous payroll report to get any strong data whatsoever. So it's really been a month of weak data. You saw Jay Powell speak, and say that he's seeing disinflationary forces and I have to agree with him actually. He's a little bit optimistic. He thinks we're gonna get to percent inflation next year, the year after I, I kind of don't think that's going to happen. But nonetheless, inflation is coming down. If you look at the true flexion numbers, they've been tracking below 2% for a while. So I mean, the labor market is finally softening, which is something we've been looking for for a long time. So I'm looking for lower yields in the future.

Andrew Brill  3:25  
Powell is talking about labor markets. We did have that number but, I know that a lot of people are on vacation, not looking at the market. But the market, Friday had a pretty good day NASDAQ and s&p hitting new highs down not far behind it. What do you make of the market right now,

Jared Dillian  3:41  
I can't I can't make heads or tails on the stock market. It's It's really incredible. The NASDAQ is up 14 days in a row. It's, it's like nothing matters, you know. And I've I've been in this situation in my career a couple times before one of them was in I want to say 2006 2007. It was a similar environment, very low volatility. I mean, back then the VIX was actually below 10. And it got below nine for a day. And the market was moving 20 basis points a day. Liquidity was abundant in the stock market, there was very little volatility. And that ended on February 27 2007. And that was the day that we walked in, in the morning and China had raised reserve requirements, and the ABX was down 10 points. And the market went down 3% in a day, and the VIX went from 10 to 20. And that was really the starting gun for the financial crisis. So you're seeing, you know, this, it's not to the scale of, excuse me, 2018 where you had that kind of volatility suppression where people were piling into the short ball funds and stuff like that, but the similar things are how happening now with covered call funds. There's a lot of vol selling. And, you know, if you suppress volatility, it tends to come back with a vengeance. And I think that's, I think it's going to happen soon. So, 

Andrew Brill  5:14  
You mentioned that in today's newsletter, The Daily Dirt Nap, how in 2007 it was, like you said the VIX was low as it is now. 12 is a pretty low VIX, you think it'd be around, you know, a little bit higher than that. But in one day, it just the bomb drops is that you think that that's a possibility at this point?

Jared Dillian  5:34  
I think I think something similar could happen. You typically don't.. Volatility occurs in regimes. You have low vol regimes, and you have high vol regimes. And the transition from a low vol regime to a high vol regime is usually pretty violent. So I have no idea what the catalyst is going to be. I don't know if it's going to be something around the election, or something in the economic data or who knows. But when it happens, we'll know when it happens. For sure.

Andrew Brill  6:04  
Do you remember what the catalyst was in 2007? I was I know, reading your newsletter, you said it could be anything. It could be someone stubbed their toe, and all of a sudden, there's a huge sell off.

Jared Dillian  6:15  
Yeah, it was China raising reserve requirements. And in the ABX were the two big catalysts. So I mean, I remember it clearly. I was on the ETF desk. And I had just gotten into work at seven o'clock. And at 7:30, some hedge fund out at London hit me on 400,000 em pre market. And it was offered four bucks below where I bought it when the market opened, and it kind of ruined my day. So

Andrew Brill  6:48  
I remember you saying it was probably the most money you've lost in a single day. And it was, it was into the seven figures. So I get that. You know, toward the end of June, you were talking about a downturn in the market. I know that it dropped a little bit that NASDAQ started to drop a little bit, but it seems to have picked up. And I know that this is a really, really strange market right now. Do you see it going higher from here?

Jared Dillian  7:20  
I mean, for sure. It's a it's possible. You know, I look like I'm not I'm bearish on stocks, okay. But the way I'm expressing that, I'm expressing it in a way in such a way that I'm not going to get burned if we squeeze even higher. So what I've been doing is, I've been buying deep out of the money puts long dated like very long dated 2026. Stuff that is just incredibly cheap with a very low delta. Right. So you know, if if the market does rally another five or 10%, it's not going to affect me that much. And since you know really what it's it's a bet on volatility, because if you're buying options in 2026, they're most affected by Vega, right? So you're looking at options with, you know, with a buck 50 of Vega in the spy. And if the VIX goes up 10 or 20 points, like that's going to be a huge winner. So, yeah, that's, like I seem to, you know, I used to kind of pride myself on the ability to time the market, and like, pick a top or pick a bottom. And I seem to have gotten worse at that over the years. So I just like to put on trades where I can just kind of hang out and, you know, and just wait for the explosion to happen. So

Andrew Brill  8:49  
And you like volatility. You know that a lot of people like, oh, you know, I can put my Tums away for a little while and know that the mark is just going to continue to creep up on you. You like volatility. Why is that?

Jared Dillian  9:01  
Well, I like volatility most people shouldn't volatility is the enemy. For most people. Volatility is what makes people make stupid decisions, right? Like, really, if you think about it, the ideal asset class for retail investor is a bank account with 8% interest, right? Like, it has a volatility of zero, it goes up 8% a year. It has a Sharpe ratio of infinity. Like that's the ideal investment. If you're a trader, if you're if you're somebody that thrives on market volatility, you want to see volatility, because it really creates opportunities but for 99% of people like volatility is the enemy. 

Andrew Brill  9:40  
Yeah, I haven't seen an 8% bank account since I think Ronald Reagan was in office. 

Jared Dillian  9:45  

Andrew Brill  9:47  
It's been it's been quite some time so those were I you know Reaganomics, but I guess those were the times we need to have to balance your checkbook. You'd really have to look at the interest to find out how much money you're actually making now, Jerome Powell speaks this week, he's going to testify in front of the Senate. The banking Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. What are you expecting from this testimony?

Jared Dillian  10:12  
I think it's going to be pretty dovish. You know, in pals latest comments, I mean, he basically referenced all the data that I referenced like it's been coming in very soft. I think you I think it's possible, you might actually get a concrete statement about a rate cut in September, I think that actually might happen. I think he could say that. I don't know what effect that's going to have on stocks. Because I think that's I think that's I haven't looked at the Fed Funds probabilities in a while. But I think that's mostly priced in at this point. You know, what, Tuesday? 4.6%? I think we're pricing in a rate cut in September. But, yeah, I think it's I think it's possible that he could say that, if the data continues to deteriorate, we, you know, we could have a small rate cut cycle following the election. In 2025, you could see 100 to 150 basis points of rate cuts. I think that's possible, as long as inflation behaves, which I think it will. So it also depends on who gets elected, and not to get too much into politics. But, you know, both candidates, I think are considered to be inflationary Trump, especially. So that factors into it as well.

Andrew Brill  11:32  
I wasn't I was going to ask you about the election, not political wise, but in the market. There's a big difference between these candidates in what you're going to invest in, isn't there? 

Jared Dillian  11:43  
Oh, for sure. There is on every election. And it's kind of the same playbook. It's actually pretty boring. Like, it's the same thing every time. Like, you know, if it's a Republican, it's coal and energy and stuff like that. And if it's a Democrat, it's tech stocks. You know, I mean, there's, there's this playbook that seems to work all the time. But there's, you know, there's the possibility, you know, I mean, we don't have to get into Joe Biden's debate performance or anything like that. But look, there's potentially a lot of surprises like Joe Biden could not be the candidate could be Kamala could be somebody else, could be somebody who's competitive with Trump. So the idea that we're going to have the VIX at 12, all the way leading up until November seems kind of seems kind of far fetched to me. So I think we're gonna get some volatility.

Andrew Brill  12:36  
I love your sports analogies, and you throwing out sports I happen to remember walking into har, and you did mention him. In a recent article that game seven performance in the 1982 World Series was special seven innings as the Cardinals won the World Series. So that was a good one. But it looks like it's getting into the late innings for the Democrats right here, isn't it? 

Jared Dillian  12:59  
Yeah, I mean, they have a little over 30 days to figure it out. You know, Biden has said he's not going anywhere. I mean, this is I don't know, I don't know how this is gonna work out. But you know.

Andrew Brill  13:16  
What are you expecting? We do get CPI this week? We get I think Thursday, and PPI we get on Friday. If these numbers come in, and continue to show slowing, and I know that rate cuts are baked into the into the numbers right now, but do you see a jump in the market? If that happens?

Jared Dillian  13:37  
Ah, oh, man. I hope not. But for sure. Like that. You know, I mean, for sure. That's possible. I think the last headline CPI we got was 3.3%. So if it came in at three, three or three, two or three, one, then yeah, for sure. We'd get a jump in stocks. I don't I don't really have any particular insight into the data. Like I'm not an econometrician. I don't, you know, I'm just, I'm just a user of the data like everybody else. But yeah, and I, it seems to meet like, I also have exposure to the front end of the yield curve, I'm betting that front end rates are gonna go lower. So, you know, I think it is possible that I think it is possible we could get a soft number in CPI, that seems more likely than not so.

Andrew Brill  14:31  
So talk to me about that yield curve. You have recently said that it had been inverted for quite a long time. And but it's you're starting to see a trend in the other direction, which is where we want to be with that yield curve.

Jared Dillian  14:45  
Yeah. And actually, it's happened in the last couple of weeks. The curve is steeped in 20 or 30 basis points, maybe less. And that really, it happened right after the debate. Right after It poor performance, the market started pricing in Trump. And everybody knows that the one Trump trade is the yield curve steepening because Trump will exert a lot of influence on the Fed and influence them to bring the bring Fed Funds lower the front end of the yield curve lower, and also he will spend in half tariffs, and that'll push the back end of the yield curve higher on on inflation concerns. So everybody knows that the Trump trade is a steep winner, and it's worked over the last couple of weeks, it really has a long way to go. I'm kind of doing the poor man's version of the steeping or I'm doing one leg of it, I'm just doing the front end of the curve. So, but this is a very popular and consensus trade on Wall Street, the curve has been inverted for almost two years, about two years at this point. And, you know, a curve steepening trade in a rate cut cycle is one of the most easiest and profitable trades that you can put on. And people have been waiting for two years for this to work. And I think one of the reasons that hasn't worked is because it's so crowded, there are so many people in it. But if you know, if, let's say we get a month from now, and it looks like Biden is the candidate, and it looks like a guaranteed win for Trump, you could see the curve steep and another 50 or 100 basis points. So 

Andrew Brill  15:16  
Explain to me how you would how you would make money on that you'd buy the longer term because or, and dumped some of the shorter term in order to make that money? 

Jared Dillian  16:42  
Well, you would buy, you would buy two year notes, and you would sell 10 year notes duration weighted, right. So I don't know what it is in cash bonds and futures. Basically, you'd be buying about 102, you know, futures and selling 5710, you know, futures, it's actually 56.6. And you would do it in that ratio. And that's, that's the way a lot of people are expressing it. So.

Andrew Brill  17:10  
And the bond market has been, according to some of your writing has been about as wacky as the stock market has been, but it's, that seems to be waning a little bit.

Jared Dillian  17:20  
Yeah, um, you know, I there's, if you go back, if you go back to 2023, the popular trade at the time was to hire for longer trade. And basically, the thesis behind that was the economy was never going to slow down, we would always have inflationary pressures, there would always be pressure on interest rates to go higher. You had people talking about five and a half, six, six and a half on 10s. Nobody's really talking about that anymore. You had a big correction in rates towards the end of 2023. And yeah, I mean, I think I think I think the path for short term rates is lower for I think long term rates is probably about an inch. So.

Andrew Brill  18:08  
So rates directly affect housing. And housing has been about as wacky is everything with higher rates, but there's less inventory, there's higher prices, which is doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Can you make any sense of the housing market at all?

Jared Dillian  18:26  
Yeah, it actually makes sense to me. I mean, I like this is one of the few things that have gotten right in the last year. So basically, we went through a period of about 10 years from 2010, to 2020, where we were chronically under building homes, we were, we were just not building enough to keep up with population growth. And that home construction picked up during the pandemic around 2021. And we've been building homes at a much faster pace since then. But it still hasn't been enough to keep up with population growth. And it won't be going forward. So if you think about this, you know, 10 million people have crossed into the country illegally, right? And they're going to stay here and they're going to get jobs and they're going to rent apartments. And over the course of the next 20 or 30 years, they're going to have children, their children are going to buy houses, like we we cannot build houses fast enough to account for the increase in population. I mean, this played out exactly in Canada in the 2010s. They started this immigration policy, they were letting in legally 2% of the population each year, there wasn't enough building house prices went parabolic. Like I actually I actually think that home prices could go up significantly from here, you know, over on a five to 10 year basis. Since you know not like this year, but over five to 10 years, I think it's possible for residential real estate to go up 50 to 100%. From here, so and it's it's really all about supply and demand. There was it when interest rates first started to go up in 2021 -22, there were a lot of people who said, you know, mortgage rates started, they went from two and a half to three to four to five. And people said, well, the housing market is going to crash, because now, you know, people can't afford these higher interest rates hasn't had any effect whatsoever. And I don't think it will have any effect. So if you're, if you're, if you're long a house, if you're living in a house, I would hang on to it, or buy more. So

Andrew Brill  20:46  
what do you say to the younger generation that, like I have, I have kids that are going to want to buy a house someday, and I don't want to have to buy for, they're gonna have a hard time affording this house because wages are not going to increase at the rate that home prices are increasing. 

Jared Dillian  21:04  
Yeah, I mean, it's a real problem. And I don't I don't have a solution, I don't have an answer at all. The one thing I would say is, if you're 27 years old, and you're in a position to buy a house, and it's going to be expensive, let's say you're looking at a $500,000 house, and you have to come up with $100,000 downpayment, and you're looking at a monthly payment of 3500 a month, and it's going to be a stretch, I would say, you know, make the stretch, buy the house, I don't think you'll regret it. And, you know, in because five to 10 years from now, it could be prohibitively expensive, and you won't, you won't be able to access that at all.

Andrew Brill  21:47  
Is it cheaper to build a house Jared than to to buy an existing home?

Jared Dillian  21:52  
So I just built a house. And I can tell you that it's not cheaper, although I built I built kind of a, you know, a fancy custom house, and it's, you know, the House side Bill ended up being about 600 per square foot, which was about $150 per square foot more expensive than the houses around here. I mean, building is an option. You know, the nice thing about building is that you get the house that you want, but you know, 99% of home construction goes over budget, and you end up spending more. And it's it's also a huge amount of stress. So,

Andrew Brill  22:30  
so let's talk about some commodities oil. Right now, oil, obviously, that's one of the recession indicators, but oil right now seems to be in a good place. How are we looking at energy prices? 

Jared Dillian  22:48  
Well, I was hoping you wouldn't ask that, because I really don't have an opinion on oil at all right now. I mean, it's kind of settled into a range. I think if so, just from a trading standpoint, if you're pricing in a Trump victory, I think energy stocks will go up. But long term, Trump is bearish for energy. Because there will be increased supply, there'll be more drilling, and you'll see energy prices come down during his presidency. If you know, I think if if Biden gets elected or any Democrat, then I think there's a decent likelihood that oil prices go higher. But that's really the extent of my analysis on this.

Andrew Brill  23:36  
Right now. Oil is comfortable. You're you're happy with where the price is at this point?

Jared Dillian  23:40  

Andrew Brill  23:41  
What about gold? I know, gold is something that you talk a little bit about. It's not something that you trade, but something that you hold on to long term? How? How should somebody look at gold? 

Jared Dillian  23:54  
Well, gold has to be a part of everybody's portfolio. And I think the estimate now is that the average person has one and a half or 2% of their portfolio and gold, and that's the average person, which means that about 10% of people have 10% gold and 90% of people have 0% Gold, you have to have some gold, gold is the best volatility reduction tool that you can possibly have. When you add gold to any portfolio, it brings the volatility down, because it is not correlated with other assets. And sometimes it is correlated, but those correlations aren't stable over time. So gold is the best volatility reduction tool that you have. It could also go up a lot. You know, the real trade on gold and I did a Twitter thread on this a few months ago. But really what it's about is I look at it as an option on debt monetization, right? So as you know, The fiscal picture is terrible. We're basically in checkmate, our interest payments are greater than our defense budget, it's all bad. So if there ever comes a time, let's, let's say, for example, Kamala Harris gets elected and she has a Democratic majority in Congress, that's unlikely to happen. But let's say that it does, that 2 trillion deficit goes to 4 trillion, you're seeing huge amounts of pressure on the bond market with increased supply, interest rates will go up. And they'll go up to the point where they start restricting economic activity. And somebody at you know, in the executive branch or at the Fed will say, hey, we have to act to keep interest rates low, and they'll cap the yield curve, which basically means it's like QE, but they're targeting yields. And that is, that is really the end game for gold. That's where gold goes parabolic. So if you think there's a possibility that that's going to happen, that we're going to have just absolute runaway deficits, then gold is sort of the safety valve for that. And that's why you invest in it. So 

Andrew Brill  26:11  
So you suggest physical gold or gold ETF? What exactly should we be investing in?

Jared Dillian  26:19  
it's always good to have a little bit of physical gold, you don't need a lot. 10, 20, 30 ounces, something like that. It's that's just kind of in case, you know, it's just a good insurance policy to have. But the ETFs are really fine. You know, I've traded the ETFs for years. I was on the ETF desk at Lehman, when GLD was launched, I became an authorized participant for that ETF. And so I'm very familiar with the ETFs, GLD. I use stuff like that, and they're very liquid. And that's fine to put in a brokerage account. The only reason if you're really, really paranoid, if you're really paranoid. And you think that there's any possibility that gold is going to be confiscated at some point, then you probably want to own physical gold instead of the ETFs. But I don't think that's going to happen anytime in the next probably not in my lifetime. So I'm not too worried about it. 

Andrew Brill  27:19  
So authoritarian rule, you might, it might not happen in our lifetime, which is a good thought, actually. But let's talk about the debt a little bit, it just continues to grow, like you said, servicing that debt is crazy. Spending isn't going to come down with either one of these presidents. And even if rates come down, they're not going to come down enough where it's going to matter. We're still servicing a ginormous amount of debt. 

Jared Dillian  27:51  
Yeah. It's, we've done a pretty bad job at liability management in the treasury. You know, when interest rates were low, we had an opportunity to lock in interest rates. You know, a lot of people talk about the 1500 year bonds. And, you know, there was when Minuchin was Treasury Secretary like he floated the idea. And they walked it back, you know, basically, Wall Street said, there's not enough demand for those maturities. And they ended up not issuing the 50 and hundreds. But even regardless of you know, regardless of that, like, if you would extend those maturities out to 1020 30 years, and issued a lot more debt in the in the back end of the curve rather than the front end. But what we did was we ended up issuing most of it in bills into your notes. And now we've had to roll that debt at progressively higher interest rates. And it was really, it was really a big mistake. You know, I mean, I can't see, you know, you can blame Yellen, you can blame Minuchin or whoever was treasury secretary. But when 10 year notes were below 1%, and you're not locking in those maturities out to 30 years, like that's just insanity. So

Andrew Brill  29:07  
how do we get this under control? Obviously, we have to spend less. And neither one of these presidents is going to do that. Is there a way to even get this under control or is just going to spiral and our kids are going to be paying for this and their kids are going to be paying for this for a long, long time? 

Jared Dillian  29:26  
Well, you can get it under control what when when people think about getting the debt under control, they think of it in terms of running a balanced budget. And with the math of the budget, it's almost impossible to run a balanced budget without just cutting almost all discretionary spending. So it's it's it's very hard to do, but thankfully, you don't have to do that. This is the way it works. If you run a budget deficit that is smaller than your GDP growth, then you will outgrow the debt over time. So If we if we have GDP growth of 3%, and we have a deficit of 2% of GDP, then that is the sustainable fiscal path. And we will outgrow that debt over time, especially if growth comes up. Right. So, but if we're running out of time to implement those changes, we have to we really have to act now. And as you said, you know, neither presidential candidate really has really anybody in government, you know, it's funny, you know, in the in the Trump Biden debate, there wasn't one single question about the deficit. And, you know, I remember when I was a kid in like, 1984 1986, like, you had the Reagan deficits, which were about five or 6% of GDP. They're smaller than they are today. And everybody was obsessively focused on the deficits. And you actually had political change, you had George HW Bush, raise taxes, and you had clean raise taxes again, then we bounced the budget in 2000. I worked for the government during the Clinton years. And you know, Clinton was a Democrat, obviously, but he was not a big spender. And the message that we kept hearing from the top was that government agencies had to do more with less, right, we were getting fewer and fewer resources. And we had to, you know, do our missions with fewer resources. And, you know, Clinton was was, I mean, whatever you want to say about Clinton, like he was actually very good for the deficit. So yeah, we are not on a good path today. 

Andrew Brill  31:45  
Fiscal responsibility. Maybe we can ask AI how to take care of this. Are you bullish on AI and those types of stocks?

Jared Dillian  31:53  
I'm actually sort of an AI bear. You know, it's the AI that we have today is pretty primitive. And I mean, everybody can see the potential, but the potential is going to be realized for 10 years, 20 years from now, it really reminds me of bubble. You know, when I mean, it was, it was almost an identical situation, except the difference was with bubble, you had two thousand dot com stocks, and all of them went bankrupt, except for four or five of them, like Facebook, and Amazon and stuff like that. And then over the course of 10 or 20 years, the potential of the internet was realized. But I think AI is going to be similar. But the funny thing about AI is that it's Bubble all rolled up into one stock, which is Nvidia, it's one stock that is Bubble. So I think if you had an ability to predict when that turn and sentiment in AI was going to happen, and you could predict when in video would have a 30% correction, then I think you could actually do a pretty decent job of calling a top in the stock market. So

Andrew Brill  33:11  
yeah, you used to log on to the internet, listen to all those funky noises and whatnot. Now you're walking around with the internet in your hands. So it's, it's, it's a matter of, you know, AI getting to that point. I know, we're what we don't even realize we're walking around with some AI in our hand already. But it's, it's I think you're right, you know, that's 20 years ago, it's gonna take a while for AI to really reach its the scratches potential. I think, before we get to that point, yeah. So, Jared, how do we protect ourselves you think that, you know, a volatile you? There's a big volatility coming, you see signs back to 2007? How do we protect ourselves and our money at this point?

Jared Dillian  33:55  
My experience is I mean, look like options are not for everybody. Options are for sophisticated investors. But if you have some facility with options, I can tell you that option prices are the cheapest they have been since 2019. Okay, they're the absolute. So if you think about this, in terms of insurance, let's put it this way. Like everybody knows that homeowners insurance is really expensive right now, right? Well, if you go back about seven years ago, homeowners insurance was actually pretty cheap. So if you let's say seven years ago, you had the ability to lock in your homeowners insurance at those rates, like you would absolutely do that. And you have the ability to do that today with options. Like with in the funny thing is, is that people get insurance on their cars, they get insurance on their lives, they get insurance on their houses, but they don't have insurance on their portfolio. Right. And oftentimes, their portfolio is their biggest asset, and the cost of insuring a portfolio is the lowest it has been in five years, you absolutely have to take advantage of it.

Andrew Brill  35:04  
So options, you talk to your financial adviser about options or just go learn about it. 

Jared Dillian  35:11  
It's hard because, you know, I started my career in the options business, like my first job on Wall Street was on the P Coast Options Exchange out in San Francisco. So I've been you know, I've been trading options for 25 years. And I have a lot of experience with this. It's like I said, if you don't have if you don't have a facility with options, then you may you there's a lot of ways to blow yourself up. There's, you know, you can get yourself in trouble. But if you know what you're doing, I would say yes, ensure your portfolio.

Andrew Brill  35:45  
Jared, thanks so much. I know the newsletter is the daily dirt nap. And where can we subscribe to that? 

Jared Dillian  35:52  
Yeah, just go to There's a subscribe button just hit the button, you send me an email. And if you mentioned the podcast, then I'll give you a discount.

Andrew Brill  36:02  
And where can we find you on social media?

Jared Dillian  36:04  
I'm on Twitter at daily dirt nap. Although I haven't been doing much on Twitter these days. But, but I'm still there. So.

Andrew Brill  36:13  
And what's the name of your podcast? And where can we find it?

Jared Dillian  36:16  
My podcast is called the Be Smart podcast. And that's on, you know, iTunes and all the Spotify and all the podcasts. And it's yeah, it's it's a good podcast.

Andrew Brill  36:30  
And when's the next slide? The last ones a few weeks ago. When's the next one coming out?

Jared Dillian  36:34  
I don't know. We took a break of a couple of weeks. Maybe next week or the week after it'll come out so.

Andrew Brill  36:42  
So look for the Be Smart podcast. No, I it's always a great listen. And Jared, thanks so much for joining us. I really appreciate it. As always.

Jared Dillian  36:50  
thank you very much.

Andrew Brill  36:51  
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