Former Reagan Official Says Inflation Will Remain High Throughout 2023
Formerly a senior economist on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, Steve Hanke accurately predicted inflation to reach 9% and is now calling for it to remain at 6% in 2023.
Back in August of 2021, John Hopkins Professor Steve Hanke called for inflation to reach 9%, during which time inflation was running at 5.25%. This is about as accurate as one can get when it comes to economic predictions.
Hanke employed the Quantity Theory of Money, originally formulated by Renaissance mathematician Nicolaus Copernicus, which, put simply, states that the price of goods is highly correlated with the quantity of currency in circulation.
Milton Friedman popularized the theory in the US during the 1960’s, but it has largely died out among contemporary central bankers. Solidifying this ideological shift in early 2021, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, “there was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time.”
Keep in mind that when Powell made these comments, inflation was coming in at 1.7% annually. It might be time to revise his statement.
Hanke takes issue with the “Putin Price Hike” scapegoat as well. While he acknowledges the toll imposed on supply chains amidst the war in Ukraine, he places significant culpability on the Biden Administration’s anti-energy policies – revoking drilling leases by executive order during his first week and ending the hotly debated Keystone Pipeline.
Policy aside, Hanke points to the administration’s rhetoric as a major issue as well. When a president pledges to “transition from the oil industry”, the message is clear: do not invest capital into production.
Less production means higher prices. It’s Econ 101.
Listen to Hanke’s full interview above in which he provides a wealth of wisdom from his several decades in the field of economics as well as some insights into the precious metals markets.