Wealthion continues its August Silver Interview Series with The Market Sniper, Francis Hunt. His message is clear: silver’s time is here.
In this powerful conversation with Wealthion’s Trey Reik, Hunt warns that the global debt crisis is spiraling into a full reset, but also explains why silver may be on the verge of its most important breakout in decades. He shows how silver could soon slingshot past $40, break through $50, and race toward triple-digit territory, all driven by fiat debasement, surging industrial demand, and tightening supply.
Francis doesn’t just share his views, he walks us through his technical and chart analysis on screen, breaking down silver, gold, the U.S. Dollar, and more in detail. His analysis reveals both the short-term risks of pullbacks and the long-term explosive potential for precious metals.
💡Want to learn more? Get our free silver investing report here: https://wealthion.com/silver/
You’ll learn:
- Why the sovereign debt crisis is entering its most dangerous phase
- How “hyperstagflation” is destroying purchasing power worldwide
- Why gold is entering a parabolic phase, but silver could be the true outperformer
- The supply and demand dynamics that make silver potentially “unobtainium”
- The key price levels to watch for silver’s breakout: $40 → $50 → triple digits
This is the second installment of Wealthion’s August Silver Interview Series. If you missed our first silver-focused interview with Tavi Costa, here: https://youtu.be/b1TvLrMoP4k
💡Concerned about Markets? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4mro6Se
💡Find out more about Wealthion and SCP Resource Finance’s October Global Silver conference in Toronto here: https://wealthion.com/silverconference2025/
💡Hard Assets Alliance – The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://www.hardassetsalliance.com/?aff=WTH
Francis Hunt 0:02
We are in the hyper stag nation. Our chosen phrase, which is an accelerated, extreme version of stagflation, the house is already irredeemably on fire in terms of gold and silver. And I understand there’s a lot of precious metal bands out there. You can still get insurance for the house by buying, obviously, the precious metal. I imagine I’m talking to quite a few long suffering patient stackers in the silver market. I think for most of the bad error is behind you. We’re in the contagion stage right now in terms of where we are, when I say three digits, I don’t just mean the under. That’s a projection from the fixed price lows to the 80 high. And this will be your first proper bull market since 1980
Trey Reik 0:56
Greetings and welcome to our wealthion show. My name is Trey Reich, and we’re here today with Francis hunt, proprietor of the awesomely named trading advisory firm, market sniper. Francis is the developer of the eponymous hunt volatility method, which, in my opinion, essentially searches for compression in market trading patterns to find likely breakouts and various asset classes. He can correct me on that if I’m wrong, but we’re here today primarily to talk about Francis’s view about silver. Thanks for joining
Francis Hunt 1:31
us. Delighted to be with you, Trey. Thank you for having me back. Excellent.
Trey Reik 1:35
But before we get to silver, having recently watched your interview with my colleague, my wealth young colleague, Maggie Lake, back in June, I thought it would be appropriate to start with your overall view of the world in terms of this acute and synchronized global sovereign debt crisis that we’re facing. In your interview with Maggie, you used words like collapse, the end and irreversible. So I wanted to ask if you could get us a current update on that view and whether anything’s changed in the past two months.
Francis Hunt 2:12
The Joy Division tune stays the same. I’m afraid, Trey, we’re still jamming, and we’re finding that the notes are still ringing true as we continue to walk towards exactly what we expect. In fact, I’ll be referencing the British debt market has almost bullied its way to the front of the queue wanting to be the biggest idiot in terms of their rates and how we think it’s almost very short term imminent, I would argue that we have some form of rate based spike and crisis which is going to cause contagion in their property markets. We’ve already seen the US markets get very, very heavy with inventory waiting to sell in there. We’ve seen the since speaking to Maggie, which was a very popular episode. So thank you to everybody enjoyed that. Don’t forget to hit like and subscribe and do it again and comment. We’re very glad to have had that discussion. And since then, timber, or lumber, I should say, has done the timber fall as well to an extreme rate which points to new building and permits going on. The real go slow. It’s very sensitive, obviously, to the US housing market. So there’s a lot moving forward. The debt markets are very precarious. I’m going to highlight UK as being especially bad now, and I think that’s going to be your next headline in terms of rates and debts. And that Labor government, which is pretty socialist and are unearthing black holes faster than anyone with a telescope could ever manage. So we’re just seeing ongoing compliance and further confirmation of our base case model being box ticked and progress since that interview. Terrific.
Trey Reik 3:53
So can you talk a little bit about sort of the size of the sovereign debt load and how you think it will be resolved?
Francis Hunt 4:01
There’s no, there’s no resolution, apart from the completion of the bomb fire, in essence. So it’s all your house is already, I’ve actually, funnily enough, I’ve used this analogy, the house is already irredeemably on fire. In other words, the petrol is the light. You don’t put it out, the house is on fire, funnily enough, as I like to say in terms of gold and silver, and I understand there’s a lot of precious metal fans out there, you can still get insurance for the house by buying, obviously, the precious metal, the price is going up. But actually, normally, if your house is already on fire beyond redemption, in other words, it’s in the beans, it’s in the roof, it’s everything. You normally will not be insured, but you can still buy insurance. And in fact, you could buy five or 20% insurance, or as I like to say, how about 150 250% and get a better house afterwards. So you know, this is not. The time for traditional financial vice advice of timid allocations to a real, true reserve asset, whilst in a debt debasement crisis, which is the death of the phony reserve assets that was provided as one for 40 years on the bull market that ended the late stages of 2020 which is one of our most seminal calls in terms of, listen, this is going to be truly, truly significant. So the ability to originate new debt instruments by banks, and their willingness is retreating immensely, because A, they can’t sell it on, which is securitisation, and B, that means they have to sit with the risk on their books. And the outlook for debt, the outlook for employment and the outlook for a lot of things are not looking that rosy. We just had, as well as a little additional point in this. We’ve just had a further revision on the last two years of payroll numbers. So we like to talk about lies, damn lies and statistics. And we’ve spoken of the the fake it’s fake number day when non farm payrolls comes around. So this is the third haircut. Normally, you get a number the market reacts. A month or two later, you get your first revision, almost invariably, downside, by the way, those have averaged 58,000 but more recently, June was revised 133,000 down. And May 125,000 down. And then at the year end, you came for a second haircut. Last year, they actually said 918,000 jobs weren’t truly created. This is a function of the birth death model and a lot of other things. And believe it or not, there’s a tweet that’s come out today, and I believe I’m sharing screens this I’ve just seen, by the way, and this is why I’m bringing you to this point. It’s kind of breaking news, I suppose the BLS is set to revise down us job numbers by a further 550, to 950, for the 12 months ending March 2025, which was already included in that previous annualized downside division. So now we’ve got to keep track of the monthly revisions to the downside after the initial release, which is normally a month or two later the annual revision. And now we’re getting an extra normal revision, and the biggest 12 month downward revision in 15 years. So the other point I want to make about this trade that’s super important before handing back to you, is that we stated when you met the criteria of a recession, the US was in recession, and they just stamped out the meaning of the word recession, entirely redefined it, and said you can’t be in a recession with us. Red Hot labor market. We said, A, it’s not a red hot labor market. B, you don’t get to retrospectively change definitions. In short, it’s my suspicion that the US has been in and out of recession since that first recessionary experience, but I think takes us all the way back to 22 under Yellen and the Biden regime. So in terms of everything that’s coming out now, lies, damn lies, and statistics and maybe a bit of propaganda thrown in there. Don’t believe what you’re seeing. Your intuition about what’s truly going on. And I’ll leave one final anecdote before handing back is inflation is running exceptionally hot. A lady did a Walmart checkout current day basket on a till slip. She had from 2020 and that inflation showed 134% in five years. So a 2020 on a like for like baskets online checkout was costing 2.34 times more over five years. I know the citizen feels what I’m saying and is not buying the statistics.
Trey Reik 8:51
As part of our silver focus this month, we’re bringing you top tier research and a free silver investment report, which you can obtain a free copy of by clicking on the link in the description below. And if you’re looking for a simple, secure way to invest in physical gold and silver, check out hard asset Alliance at hard assets alliance.com speaking of silver, wealthion will be on the ground at the SDP resource finance global silver conference this October in Toronto, where Eric Sprott will deliver the keynote address. It’s going to be a major event for silver investors. Stay tuned for more details in the weeks ahead. And to put a bit of a footnote on one of the things that you just mentioned. You know, we talk about revisions a lot, and I just want to point out to viewers that what you were referring to in the May and June, BLS revisions. These are just revisions of their estimates. They’re not revisions based on fact. And they brought those estimates down, 255,000 in two months, which was the largest. Since 1968 outside of recession. And I’m not a math guy, but I’ve read paragraphs we’re into the standard deviation that are literally, you know, this isn’t it doesn’t happen. A lot. This never happens. They were such extraordinary revisions to the downside. So can you talk a little bit about how unusual this has all been.
Francis Hunt 10:24
The truth of the matter is, I never bought the original lie personally, but I’ve had to deal with a lot of people, so I listened to another YouTuber who’s very dominant the dollar, and has a theory about the dollar and a milkshake saying how tariffs haven’t been inflationary, and there’s no inflationary there’s another voice out there that talks of melt UPS a lot, and says that we are not only below inflation, the Fed’s target, but they haven’t even realized that, but we’re even well below. So there are a lot of misguided voices out and there’s others that have said the Fed can’t read the signs. Why haven’t they cut yet? The economy is much weaker, which is right? On the one hand, it is much weaker. They late to that party, but at the same time, they don’t understand the dynamics. The Fed can’t cut because what you’re actually doing is saying, hey, buy this debt instrument for a little bit higher price and get a lower yield. How do you like that deal, given you haven’t really been buying it at the current price, what if I put it up and you get a lower return? It’s a bit like you’re buying a buy to let property. And I say, well, pay 100 grand more, and let’s knock your yield down. Let’s drop the rent you get for it. Do you want it now? The answer actually becomes No. I didn’t particularly want it before, and I want it even less now. So the there, there are many false dichotomies out there in terms of where they come, where we are, and as we get to it’s as we get to collapse. It’s very much in government’s interest to mislead as much as possible. You really need to find your inner skeptic, if you’re a trusting kind of guy, that it’s not in their interest, that you know the fullness of a situation and you are aware and protected. Unfortunately, in this society, we are the marks. We’re the Patsy’s at the poker table. You need to understand that, and you need to understand how we desperately you need to be doing the right things. And you’re being misled. They’re trying to create an alternative reality. You actually have Bitcoin at all time highs, stocks at all time highs, supposedly for now, property values clinging on to all time highs, or near thereabouts, getting a bit frayed and mangy, I would have to say, and everything at all time highs, but you’re getting a rate cut next month. All of those are actually in nominal terms when rebased for gold, showing that the Fiat debasement is epic. That’s why things are holding some element of valuation. We are in the hyper stag nation, our chosen phrase, which is an accelerated, extreme version of stagflation, which means the stagnation is high, the inflation is higher, the job market is far more difficult. It’s harder to find the increases are less, and at the same time, the cost of living is going up. That’s the dollar debasement. We had a 55% fall in the TLT the long term debt markets. That means you will as a Fiat, because the Fiat is the Siamese twin to the debt instrument. They move together. They conjoined at the head. You can’t take one down 55% without the other, and most people don’t realize that. So your buying power of the dollar has gone immensely down, and on average. Further statistics to throw at you, the US dollar is down 11% against other failing Fiats. The ruble is 42% up against the dollar. The Hungarian Florent is 15% the Czech as lavakian is 14.5% I mean, the list goes on. So the huge collapse in the debt markets that we called from 2020 that has been an elevator down over the last four and a half years is now being met with that debasement of the dollar either against other failing Fiats, the only measure that really matters is gold, and it flies the same altitude all the time, and all the jumpers that have jumped up, see the plane getting smaller, and say, gold bubble, Fiat contagion. We’re in the parabola phase of debt debasement and Fiat debasement, cost of living up real hard times for those that don’t seize the opportunity to trade stroke position invest for hyper stagflation.
Trey Reik 14:42
A lot to take in there all at once. I want to before I respond to your goal comment, point out one last footnote for viewers, Francis mentioned these revisions that were apparently on the tape as we started speaking, and I just wanted to explain those come out once a year, usually in August. On the fiscal year March to March. It takes that long and it’s the BLS puts out its monthly payroll estimates and revises those estimates for two months. What Francis is talking about is the BLS also employs the Census Bureau to pull individual states under unemployment insurance scrolls, and they’re much more accurate, and they get all the way down to cities, you know, neighborhoods, states, industries, and so they’re actually the data. But the problem is they come so late, six to eight months late, nobody really cares, because everybody reacts to the payroll. So what Francis is talking about in this number that is added to the monthly BLS revisions is actually the closest thing we will ever have to the real data correct.
Francis Hunt 15:54
You’ve surpassed me in your knowledge Trey by some way there. But absolutely, that rings true what you just stated.
Trey Reik 16:03
All right, perfect. So I didn’t mean to put you on the spot, but moving on, I have had a view because a lot of what I pick up in your work is you’re focusing on long term trends, and quite frankly, when they finally matter, I’m going to use the word inflection point or something like that. And with gold, since I’ve been doing this for 25 years, there’s several fundamentals that I’ve followed, the US deficit, the anti dollar sentiment declining, fed credibility, and we’ve been talking about them for a long time. And again, not to put words in your mouth, but as you gold’s up 27% last year, 27% this year. I think we would both agree that that’s a bit of a surprise in terms of the strength. Do you think that’s a reflection of these fundamental tipping points being reached in these long term fundamentals?
Francis Hunt 16:58
Well, the key, they call it the lead steers. And when I say steers, I’m meaning the cattle. There’s a couple of big alpha males that lead this the charge, basically, and end up being the reason why a stampede goes in a certain direction. And the lead steers, for gold markets, are the big institutions and the central banks, and in terms of how they are voting. They move the needle on the price you and me with our retail purchases of, you know, a little bit of stacking here and there. When we are a little bit fat on the paycheck, etc, etc, we don’t move the needle. We are long term accumulators. Maybe retail in an over a long period, will accumulate a lot. If they ever did something in a hurry they could, but we’re talking about central banks and the debt turn was the back end of 2020, for us. But already before then, when we went into just post the.com crisis, which was quite a serious recession. Just post the.com crisis, we had a softening in the US, and that’s when gold started to move from its 253 then we had the run up to 2011 which was QE one, two and three for the post subprime crisis. So the gold trend actually has been going for a fair bit, but it’s also been put on ice a few times. 2011 was not a full bull market at all. It was the first leg of a far larger multi leg structure. If you’re an areatician, you’ll sort of understand an ABC, a BC, a CD, you know, an EF, and a full five wave for which we’re really only part way through. And actually the next wave in elliottician. I’m not specifically an elliottician, but the next wave up, which is the third leg, is usually the largest and the biggest, and it’s often 61.8% larger than the previous one, which would mean the run up from the 250 lows that ended up at the 2011 highs, which was around 1927 if you can recall. So you’re talking about 250, to 2000 let’s just do Chinese rough mathematics. You’re talking about an 8x just under on that of call it seven and a half for one of a line here or there. And you know you’re going to probably do 61.8% times that, if you’re a standard technician in Elliott Wave, from the subsequent low. Now the subsequent low was over 1000 from the 1927 high. So imagine doing seven and a half or eight times. But now adding 60% to that, you’re going to you’re kind of adding another you’re probably looking at 12 or 13, maybe 14 times from a 1000 low. So that just points to the next biggest wave being pretty substantial in terms of debasement of Fiat. Because remember, gold is going to move on account of debasement of Fiat. Everybody thinks it’s the gold. Price. It’s x, A, U, U, S, D, right? The thing that’s moving is the debasement of the money. It flies at the same altitude you put it under your bed, providing it’s a safe place. It’s still going to be the same size, it’s going to still be the same weight. It won’t rust, it won’t disappear, it won’t be chipped, it won’t be devalued. It’s the dollar that’s going to be debased. And on that key point, the 54 years, because there’s been a lot of excitement, and I don’t buy into this hopium of people thinking that Besant is going to overshoot and Reval gold at 20,000 of opening another kettle of fish here, as usual. And I want to highlight that that to me, is deeply unlikely. And this is a bit of crypto Moonboy ism creeping into the gold bullion realm. What they could do is a mark to market. And I don’t even, I’m not even sure they want to do that. Remember, central banks and governments don’t want to bring gold into the discussion more than they have to. They actually like ignoring it. Once you a Federal Reserve Chair. You can count the amount of times they say the word gold versus the amount of times they will talk about rates or any other Core term, and it’ll be exceedingly rare, even the ones that you know Greenspan was gold regulated sound money before he became the Fed chair. Then he became Fed chair. Never wanted to talk about it, never wanted to mention it. And Ron Paul would show up and poke him with a stick and keep mentioning gold. And he just didn’t want to take the bait on any level. And the same went for Bernanke under Ron Paul. Ron Paul’s poking with a stick, probably the best president America never had. But anyway, back back to essentially your question, it’s a debasement. We’re seeing chronic debasement. And since $42.22 54 years ago, to today’s current price, round about the 3300 level, give or take a few, and you’re talking about 8.4% loss in value each year, compounded. And the interesting part of that is we’ve entered the escalator and the parabola phase, where that number will change rapidly as a result of recent price moves. So as gold goes into a higher, faster move, the aggregate percentage for the 54 years will go up, but it will understate how much it’s changed as a result of recent events. Hence why I speak about convexity, the debasement of $1 is kind of like paying off a mortgage curve. Slow at first, slow at first, and then suddenly, very steep. It’s a slippery slate mountain that you’re not slipping you walk to the edge, and then eventually you fall over because it’s starting to get a bit steep, and then you’re trying to stop yourself, and you just go right the way down into a vertical plunge. That convexity is gold’s parabola. It’s the exact inverse of that chart. That’s your buying power of your dollar, turning into the slippery state, going eventually vertically down. And that’s your parabola slowly, slowly at first, but eventually steeping going up. So when you think about 54 years and that 8.4% the best bet Still to come on that number and the true debasement of the fiat currencies.
Trey Reik 23:11
So in seeing some of your recent charts, I can visualize in my head what you’ve just said. And basically, Fiat sort of goes to the right, slopes down and then falls off a cliff, and gold sort of is similarly stable, makes an inflection and and you have recently picked right after sort of the turn. So if that’s true with gold, do not to tie you down by specific times. But like, how far do you see gold going in one year, five years, 10 years.
Francis Hunt 23:45
So the question is as how far can we debase dollar and debt? And the problem is, we have way too much debt, and we’ve really only just started the problem of debasing it, and there’s a plethora of new debt being added. And by the way, as they’ve lost control of the long ends, or appear to be, that’s my take, and it’s happening in Japan as well, and the United Kingdom as well, and the eurozone in time to follow. More and more is being pushed onto the short end. And the notion that you can run, but you can never hide absolutely applies. And when you go the short end, you face a higher renewal cycle of rollovers at the same time as you are adding an ever exponential, higher amount of new debt. So you’re actually getting a conveyor belt of consistency. And I love to joke about the, you know, the fashionability of a pair of pink crocs. And I talk about sort of oil tankers just bringing these rubber shoes to you, and your house is already imploding with them. This is where you’re at where pink crocs I you know, you don’t even want to pay for $5 never let them mine. Let it alone. $25 there’s no money to be made. I’ll actually pay you to take them away. I’m drowning in them. So how low does, how low does the debasement process have to go? It’s got a huge degree. You’ve got 37 trillion, a number that’s recently been crossed. By the way, I think we referred to that convexity curve in the parabola opposite the twins, gold versus debt and the dollar on our last chat with Maggie. And I think I showed a diagram because I tried to help people with the visualization of that. So people that didn’t see the first video should go and watch that one with Maggie. But we’ve got so much more debasement to do. We really do. We’ve got so much more to debasement to do. And that means, you know, dollars are already single cents of 54 year old dollars, and they’ll become decimal places of single sense of 54 year old dollars,
Trey Reik 25:51
so and again, not to beat this into the ground, but how do we know when we’ve gone further enough around the curve that we’re in The parabola stage? Is it just the price movement itself, or are there other clues
Francis Hunt 26:05
there will be, there’s going to be, unfortunately, there’s going to be a whole swathe of clues. So this, this is we’ve curtailed this to a market based discussion surrounding the price and the availability of gold. In the meantime, unfortunately, I suspect there’s going to be a full blown economic reset and debt moratoriums, social unrest, looting of the supply chain, throttling part and parcel of and by the way, they need inflation. So the people that are saying there’s no inflation, they absolutely need inflation in our model of hyper stagflation, which has a huge chunk of stubbornly high inflation, probably in real terms, in double digits, but not the not 99 and we talking the teens and plus, plus plus. They need that for the debasement of debt while pretending it’s not happening. They need the dollar to go down. Trump, just to tie this to recent was talking about, you know, I like a strong dollar, but, you know, a weak dollar helps us to sell. It’s good for business. That’s a big pivot from his first term narrative in between, you know, the Biden in between the two Trump terms. And the reason why is because his handlers and his instructors are told him, you know, we’ve got a big problem. Yeah, we’ve got to devalue this. So debasement now is the game. You have a record deficit in the US, and you’re going to have a predominant US audience. And I love you guys, and I love visiting your country. Please don’t be offended, but I’ve got to tell you how it is. You’ve got a real trade deficit, extreme record against Europe and against China, the two other macro economic blocks, and a lot of these deals that are being seen to be going down, is an attempt to reverse this, because it’s created a choke point for US policy on a number of levels, the trade deficit as well, never mind just the debt. So there’s a whole bunch. It’s kind of like an old man who’s got a heart attack, and it’s his main Iota is blocked and the main veins being pumped out, and all of that, they’ve all getting pinched. You’re not going down on accounts of one vein for this heart attack. We’re talking a multiple bypass here. But forgive me for the Chuckle humor. Let’s have our let’s put our black humor hats on and just acknowledge that you know, you’re not going to clear one vein and everything’s going to be okay. This is real, real heart disease. This is the end of game. You know, every pipe needs a clean, and there’s no way of doing that.
Trey Reik 28:33
So lightening things up a bit. How do you look at Silver and your pantheon of analysis? It’s sort of a right turn here, and I apologize, but we’re, we’re trying to focus on silver. I find all of this so fascinating. But how do you plug silver into this big picture? Well,
Francis Hunt 28:52
it’s essential role gold, silver, and I even talk about platinum as well, although it’s a lot more rare by the way, the US market has a benefit, that in Europe, they charge VAT on platinum and even silver in some places. So I would certainly say, have a look at it. It’s become virtually unobtainium platinum. You asked about silver. So let’s not get sidebar into the lesser known metals. But the whole monetized reserve asset is gold. So we go back up to the big G, our friend, and he, he has to stand up first. He’s the king of anti Fiats. There is no other anti dollar trade for anybody, anywhere in the world, Americans, Europeans, then handing back Fiat and taking gold ounces. And he stands up first and moves first. And that stage has already begun and is happening. And then, then you get the likes of the Gold Silver ratio, which starts to say, at what point does silver start over performing? And that tends to be your indicator. But silver is also livened up a great deal. And silver. So it has to be said, along with platinum, so I’m bringing that the two white metals in both had huge lease rate spikes, which point to the truth about actual supply. So that starts to force the fundamental hand that has been a bit of a limiter on silver, as long as they could always control the paper markets and the demand had plenty of above ground supply, they could continue to actually run a subsidized, cheap silver price in the name of keeping precious metals down so that they could get away with the further lies in their bond markets. So you have a hyper extended, hyper overvalued bond market in spite of a 50 correct percent, 55% correction. And in precious metals, you have an underappreciated despite its recent move and contains down now, when you start to have real price discovery, when the when the shortages start to hit, and it becomes close to unobtainium, and you’ve got shortages platinum is in that situation that London literally has less than naught point 3 million ounces, and now they couldn’t actually locate and make that available for contracts. So there is dire problems there. And Silver has its own version thereof, although the numbers are a lot bigger. So you actually have the two white metals standing alongside of each other that are getting almost, as I say, unobtainium for platinum, and potentially not too far off squeeze point for unobtainium for silver. On the basis. Now, there’s far better people that watch those numbers than me. I read their reports, and I just quote and report and give credit to who answer that question, because that’s a fundamental issue. I’m the chart guy, and I say I will see it in the charts, so I’m happy to take you to the charts. If you’d like to do that,
Trey Reik 31:52
please. So, and just to start that, because I kind of studied some of your stuff, you seem to focus on spot, front month, pattern, status and time frame. How about those? For some prompts on how you see the current silver setup? Yes.
Francis Hunt 32:10
Will you allow me as because to understand silver is to understand the precious metals complex and silver and gold go hand in hand. I do need to just give a slight warning that if there’s a major demand destroying event, we could have opportunities to slam silver one more time, especially with the unobtanian threat. And we’ve been warning that gold is going to just stay in the range and not make too much progress for a spell, not forever, but for a spell, and there’s a reason why we did that. So that will give color and context to the silver discussion, which, as I promise, I will take you to here is something I would really like you to see. I’m just going to take all the lines off. I’ve been suggesting that actually there’s big selling going on in gold. This is a monthly chart of gold. Now this has bearing and relevance to the silver question, because if they manage to slam gold, they’ll keep a lid, at least for now on silver, and they might then be able to get some cheap notional price delivery to deal with some of their shortages, at least for a while. We warned that when you this original run here, we set up this target. And while we were talking, in fact, to Maggie, we said, this is one of the best setups that was round about there. You need to see it on the weekly chart. I’ll show you a bit better in a moment, but that you are going to face a very clear cut, great opportunity where the people with real method will benefit from even some leverage, long positioning, providing you understand leverage, you don’t over utilize it, and you get it, it will be a consistently, generally up phase. And we called for a 2900 3000 targets for this up leg move, which was all part of this continuation pattern over here. So again, I’m talking about gold, and I will get to why this is important for silver in a moment,
Trey Reik 34:03
by the way, these are monthly candles.
Francis Hunt 34:06
These are monthly Correct. Yes, I’ve taken you out, and this poll was what was giving us the targets to the 290, 3000 now what ended up happening is we had peak tariff tantrums. Trump’s tariff tantrum, when he looked like he was a bit of a drunk swinging with a baseball bat at one point and attacking everybody. And then there was a freak out. The rates on debt shot up. The dollar actually collapsed, a warning to those milkshake guys, rates can go up and dollar can go down. And there was flight capital leaving America. And I can also say, subsequently, we’ve learned a lot of that was American money, not attack vectors from China, Japan, as everybody tends to go, oh, we were attacked some external force, you know, that’s trying to take you down. No, they sitting patiently. They know you die. They don’t have to rush in to kill you. You’re having a heart attack. They. Have to rush. That’s how it is. The Chinese are patient anyway. So that gave a final surge to this. That got 235, so actually got over performance to that target. And what’s actually happened is that surge, and it’ll show up on the weekly chart a bit better when I drop, but I want to show you something on the monthly you got sold back down from three and a half. And I want to highlight a couple of points here. And this is going to be very, very interesting. The close there was 3288 then we went into the next month. That was April, by the way, you had what’s called a rickshaw boy. That’s a very long week, both to the upside and the downside. But the open and the clothes are the same, so it’s a doji, which is open and closed, the same but quite a bit of volatility across a range of equal size. That close was 3290 so 3288 3290 this one over here was 89 in fact, it’s other way around. Sorry, the one before was 89 and this one was 3200 No, I put my numbers wrong. That’s 3303 okay, 3303 328932, 90 and again. Over here, 32890, so you’ve been knocked back to 3300 or within $12 of that each month, for April, May, June, July. So let me just show everybody those numbers. This is really important to understand what’s going on. You see that box I’ve just put in. That’s the low number. I’m going to put, put it in a box one more time. Let’s just do it. Watch that number, and you’ll see that I’m not telling you a lie here. This is incredibly, I would say, coincidental, potentially that close to so my apologies to close. We want the clothes. I’ll put a box around the low. Let me just get my story straight. There’s the clothes. That’s the close with the C in front of it makes sense to me now. 3288, you should see that number 328832, 893-303-3290,
Francis Hunt 37:21
so you’ve got 8889 and 90 and 3303, and everyone was saying, no, no, no, we’re about to break out. We were also in that camp, and we said no. Afterwards we reverted and we say, we need to wait. We think the second half of this month you’re going to get sold back down. You’ve gone all the way you went, traded right up to a high of 3409, that’s the one, the number with the H in front of it over here, 3409 and you are now heading all the way back down. You’re getting squeezed down, back down. So this points to an uncanny level of very, very similar. So the eight, eight is the lowest. You had eight, nine and 90 as well. And you had the 303, that’s $15 on how many months, April, May, June, July, currently trading August, waiting to see. So I warned a little bit that there could be a little fizzle back during the course of this month, after we didn’t get our breakouts. And again, I’m seeing a week coming out yet this points to some degree of capping, and you just can’t hold above the 3400 and I’m going to put those closes all in a box on the candles, just so that everybody can see them. Let’s put go the box again, and just show you, everybody, look how tight that is. And you the current month is still open and selling off. So I just want to highlight that as a key component as to why short term. Short term, if we get a demand destroying event, hence why I also mentioned the UK debt market getting chronic. You could actually have everybody selling everything that isn’t nailed down, and why you got that element of over performance. Typically, when you get a spell of over performance, you sometimes have a little bit of congestion. It’s kind of me and you sat down, we had ourselves three pizzas and nine beers between the two of us. We’re a little bit couch bound and a little bit lazy. You know, that was off to the marathon that we ran. We’re not ready to run another marathon right now.
Trey Reik 39:31
I’m going to interrupt you for one question, which has always been on the tip of my tongue when I talk to technicians. So you just showed us this very erudite description of these monthly closes, and I’m going to ask sort of a smart alecky question, why is the last day of the month so more important than the other 22 trading days? And what I mean by that is, as we both know, you know, Spot got up to 3500 and. On the Trump tariff on imported bars, COMEX got over 3500 but by the end of the day, it had corrected. So why does it the only on a monthly chart does it hide things that are important? Why is the last day of the month so important?
Francis Hunt 40:18
The last day of the month is so important because of one word derivatives. Okay, so inspiring. Good answer. Yeah. So right there. It’s the system we’ve chosen, by the way, we should be on. I think the story goes we should be on 13 months of 28 days. So there’s another interesting, separate journey where you and I can go on that’s a bit too esoteric for this the purpose of this podcast and other learnings that go with the Gregorian calendar and what truly was before it, and how we’ve been desynchronized. But park that the system is decreed on a Gregorian calendar for which we we have derivative contracts on a quarterly and on a monthly basis that expire. So it’s quite valuable for people that are manipulating with high levels of leverage to have a point where they don’t end up being in a P and L and have to acknowledge a red P and L and take on board an account and make payments, etc, or be marked to market. So the month ends are critical, because it’s the system we chose. In truth, you know, we’ve got a decimal system. We should have a 12 or an eight digits system. Why 10? Well, it’s because we’ve got 10 fingers. But in actual fact, by the time you’re having 10 to five, you’re already into decimals. When you do the next chop, we should be eight, four to one, or we should be 12, or something else, but it just is the system that we have, and it came about for what it is, and everything else hangs off that. And so month end matters, and quarter end matters even more in terms of realization of where we at. So here’s that blow off. That was the Trump tariff tantrum, as I call it. Let’s just put that in the square. There was a little bit of a super over performance that came about as a fundamental based story where it caused an extremity and a panic in you can see our 3000 target. You were already pulling back. It made a normal over performance by 170 you’re having a bit of a correction, and then you got an extra final search, but that’s kind of exhausted you for a while, so we are watching this very, very closely, and we think you’re going to bleed to the downside. So the question was silver, and all I’ve done is talk about gold. So let’s get on to the question you asked, if gold is likely to have stay in a broader range, or even if we have an exceptional event that could see us break down through, let’s just say here’s here’s the box range that I think we’re in for now. That includes that previous high there and that previous low if we end up running, let’s say the the one box range slightly tighter, where you had resistance here and support here. If we end up running these, that would be quite a big move. It’s a bit I’m not saying both will be run. I’m not saying, but there is a possibility, and there will be news around that, which is one of the reasons why I said UK debt. UK debt markets looking like IMF 2.0 at the moment and last time, by the way, they use 10% of the IMS fund to plug their gaps. They would need more than 50% probably not even possible. And don’t forget, the IMF is all the other nations that are full of debt based issues, including the UK itself. So how much one leper can help another leper is a question we can all debate on another discussion, but there is a possibility of a breakdown on gold a little lower. We could stay in range and just get to the lower part of the range. So I don’t know how bad is bad, if it’s just a minor affair like Liz truss and a new Prime Minister’s founded a new election, and they paper over the cracks, and they managed to muddle on fine. But this is our core period where we said the possibilities of reset events are very high. September, October, particularly so the big the final, end of August, September, October, obviously, contagion into November, December, very popular area for for real hard hitting truths, to get washed and rinsed out. So there is risk that we do the downside, but we could base along the bottom and just sell off a wee bit and just stay in range. I don’t know which is happening, but if we go to the bottom end of the range and we hang them, but heavy, as you can see, has been starting to happen as we’re getting deeper in the month, we’re actually being sold off. And some people will show up and say, it’s because of the peace. You know, we went up because of the war, and it’s because of the peace. That’s what I call toe tagging. It’s where you fit a narrative. There’s a dead body and. Everybody’s concerned, you know? And what we need, okay, fetch the mortuary. Well, who is it? You know, we have to put a toe tag. Oh, he was a vagrant. He drank a lot. He stumbled into the street and was hit by a truck. Okay, now everybody knows his name was Joe Schmo. He was a vagrant, known, known family. We can all carry on with our lives. Why? Because we know we’re not vagrants who are going to stubble in a row we went. If there’s a dead body that’s unaccounted for, there’s this mental cognizance. It’s a toe tag. Once we put the narrative and the story to it, we feel it. No, there’s real debasement going on. But you might get a disinflationary moment where everything gets sold just to survive, because x, y and z and that could lead to all sorts of short term pullbacks, especially after an over performance search. So that to get to your real question, which was actually about silver, could have bearing on silver, so we either have the negative vibe for gold silver, where we actually run below these lows over here, and there’s quite a big news event, probably financial, could be military, could be anything. That’s just one scenario, or we just come a bit off we base, we stay in the box ranges I’ve given you, and then we later are coming back up, and we break out, and everything’s hunky dory. We’re back on the debasement train again. More big, beautiful bills, more of the usual. So I’m going to give you two scenario answers now for the silver, which I’m hoping this was quite a lengthy setup, so I’ll let you come back at me on that before I go into the silver. If
Maggie Lake 46:38
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Trey Reik 46:56
uh, I’m digesting everything as fast as I possibly can. I’m trying to figure out how much you think silver and gold are connected. You seem to think that. I believe that you think they are fairly highly connected. So the question is, you know, what’s the current setup in silver?
Francis Hunt 47:16
Yeah, so let’s bring, let’s start dealing with silver more directly. Now the macro picture is incredibly bullish. So with everything I’ve said about demand, possible destroying events, the trickiness of September and Octobers and all of that narratives, long run, both these guys going up in investment, high probability, debasement, debt, collapse, everything. That’s where I stand short this that was mainly a short and medium, you know, next week and a couple of months to the year end, if we had a drama. So most people are not on the worried about what it does to December. They’re worried about where it’ll be two years from now, three years, five years from now, you’re all golden on those ones, on both of these and silver will eventually be an outperformer. However, we have to also technically notice we met a couple of targets on silver. So again, for people, there’ll be some people watching this and saying, Do I buy today? And or, and, God forbid, be careful. Out there some people that say, Should I take a leverage long position today and hope to make money by next week? I’m not positively disposed to those people that are on the short term, that may be using leverage, or people that want to buy a sizable lump sum today. I think you might get an opportunity to get it a little bit cheaper, both silver and gold, but the macro of this particular structure is absolutely bullish. Traditional technical analysts will give you the usual cup and handle narrative like that. And again, just as I highlight on the short term, these are shooting stars. That means you’ve been pushed back down twice, and then this current month, you’re having a smaller shooting star inside the previous one. So I’m not sure if those candles are that well visible. Let me get rid of my overlay draw. But that points to not chronic ones, but it points to short term you might get a couple of extra ounces, a little cheaper, lower down at some point. So it’s not a whale in massive put your whole life savings today in and it’s not a leverage trade long right now, but it is on a bigger time frame. I will highlight something else, and I think this is part of what they will push back against if we go for a quarter. So this is a three month chart, and I’m pulling it through again. I want to just highlight currently where you were at yesterday, and I think it’s just changed today where you were at yesterday, if we had closed the quarter, which only happens, what’s it September, end of September. So you need the rest of August, and all of them, you are higher. At any candle body level than any time before. So we have now already given that up. You can see that dotted line is a tiny bit below that close there yesterday, if we were having that discussion, you are higher than that, that and that. And you can see the second half ease back that is taking place as well. So I think the quarter, they really don’t want you to have a high, all time high quarterly close. Remember these $50 amounts. They were wicks in a quarterly that you never held for three months. You came right the way back down. So it’s quite important to remember that the close for that candle over there in the 1980s many of the people watching that wouldn’t have been born, and I wore a lot younger man’s clothes back then, I was still in school. The open there is 3775 we were actually 38 and the highest candle here, which is the open on that one, is 30 open. Open is 3765 and the close on that one was 3765 so we’ve actually been sitting at the three classic highs, the current, the 2011 and the 1980 we’ve actually been at a quarterly high point, if we closed, and I think we fall below that. So I think we right now short term, no, you’re going to get a little bit cheaper sometimes with big macro. This is such a big time frame. It’s a quarterly time frame. This taking us back to 1980 and the 70s, sometimes with a head cup and handle that when the handle is as big as it is it. Don’t forget, this is running us 2011 to 25 you get another smaller fractal handle. The handle gets a baby handle, if that makes sense, and you fractalize again. So you could have that little pullback. It won’t go anywhere near as deep, but it’ll consume some time and come back up. So you’re going to get a multiple triggering event. We talk about it. We did it with gold once, twice, three times, the fourth time a lady, that’s your break. So it’s kind of like you get rejected three times, and then the fourth time, you’ve got your date, and we’re at the third time here. So I sense not quite yet. Trigger firing time for the silver market could go lower a little bit. That’s not a bare call, by the way. This is a technician watching when’s the best time to put his next lump sum in in terms of this market. And you could just find yourself pulling back a bit. Have I answered it sufficiently? Or do you have any other questions on that?
Trey Reik 52:44
Well, I actually have a whole list of specific questions on how I thought the hVF worked, but we don’t. We don’t need to necessarily pound them all through to you. Now, we may have to come back and do a more detailed analysis of the model in the future. But let me ask this general question. I’m sure you’re aware of the slingshot interpretation of silver and how it moves versus gold. There are certainly a lot of people who are in the camp that silver moves later than gold. But you know when it breaks out, it accelerates and 39 I’m not sure where that shows up on all of your technical analysis, but just to a rookie looking at 39 it seems like a pretty big level. And so if we trade at 40, are you in the camp that you know Silver’s due for a real slingshot move?
Francis Hunt 53:42
Yes, yes, I do. There’s a couple of things you are asking. You’re asking about the 39 level. And I think with that quarterly closed discussion, that’s 37.65 37 and a half to 39 range generally, at the moment, is being pushed back against somewhat. It’s not being it’s not being successfully rejected, actually. And I think some of the fundamentals could probably be leading into that. In terms of you may also mention the Hbf method, which is three impulses and a squeeze in volatility. We do still have a draw here that hasn’t fully made its target, but the trigger, and that is the three impulses and the squeeze in volatility. So when you introduced you missed the funneling word, which was hunt, volatility funnel you actually get squeezed into, like a protein shake, almost into the funneling, and then you break. And we broke, we made our first interim target on a week, we pull back, which is typical target response. Then we made the second interim targets over here, both done quite soon, and then you’ve been grinding higher. It’s a little bit like a rising wedge. And we’ve got a lot of time to make this target. You’ll see these vertical lines. Tell us our time. Stops so you could still have a fall back down out of the rising wedge. And that’s two shooting stars, a little bit of a pullback. I’m not even saying as far as 32 doesn’t have to be that far. Could be a bit further. You could pull back like that and then end up running the 41 the question is, will we ever get for this quarter, a 41 close, and I’m not sure necessarily, I can say that, will that all happen in the next six weeks possible? So we could go down first, because I’m cautioning on the short term, you probably could get a better price on the longer term. And it might not be that long. You know, this could all happen in the next week or two, with a bit of a yen carry trades like August last year, tail end of August last year, or the British debt situation, we get a little bit of and then we your next thing. You know, we are going back up, but you could also pull back a little harder and even revisit the funnel. I don’t think so. That was a long way ago. That’s, you know, that’s extreme. But don’t forget, we traded on spot. Not that you could buy 11, I think $11 at covid. It was either 11 or 14. We can check that now. Could forget about buying it at that price with premium. So let’s just find that 2020, what was the low there? Yep, it was actually 11, but you could only buy, I think, for $14 something, and that was a great buy as well. So even if we get a drama of an event, that’s a little spill that can happen. So it’s possible, but for this pattern to win out, you can’t run that stop. So I don’t think the moves that big, you have a pullback. And then we go and we finish the 41 run, which will be a great close. And then it sets us up for, okay, can we go test 50? Probably get rejected, because we’ve been rejected before, but that’ll be the third time, the fourth time, a lady we break and once we threw 50, that fourth time pass, which I still think we’ve got to go visit for a third time first, that is just open territory. That’s when I think actually triple digits comes rather quickly then. And there is some real fancy film I almost become a moon boy in terms of my bullishness, because that’s open territory. And that, again, will be dollar debasement, but it’ll also be the fundamentals of unobtainium, which we already encounter in Platinum that we’re not far off from having in silver.
Trey Reik 57:26
By the way, unobtainium is a great word, especially if you have a South African accent. Little bit difficult for me, but so if we’re going to reduce this for those again, following along, trying to pick out a few important numbers. Is there a number or two you’d highlight? In other words, you just mentioned 40 is important, and then 50 means probably 100 What about on the downside? What? What are the number negative numbers we should be looking for or not looking for, but we should be aware of if they occur.
Francis Hunt 58:01
Well, that would come down to if we have an event similar to CV 19, and that would be a very thin trade. And I would imagine a lot of banks would try get out of shorts if they ever successfully got that same level of spill that we had there to happen now to make that handle to the handle, I would imagine they would be very well served getting out of any derivative short positions as best they can there. Because I think that that’s going to be a real problem. I mean, you think of solid state batteries that will be recharging in a fraction of the time, running twice, three times longer. If they want all this battery technology, which I think they do. They want to track and trace us everywhere. They want us in battery cars. The more reason I’m going to buy diesel ones. But you know that point aside, the performance of those were going to require just the 20% market take in normal batteries of solid state batteries would take 96% of mined annually supply. So I mean, they really just don’t have enough silver for all the technology use, unit uses that they have for it. So I would actually prefer to talk about the upsides once we pass 50. I don’t think the downsides are exceptional. If you’ve been a patient stacker for a long time, and I imagine I’m talking to quite a few long suffering patient stackers in the silver market. I think the most of the bad error is behind you. We’re in the contagion stage right now in terms of where we are, if I just put a couple of lines up for you, this is the big numbers, these are the sexy numbers. You’ve got a 597 up there. So when I say three digits, I don’t just mean the 100. That’s a projection from the fixed price lows to the 80 high. And this will be your first proper bull market since 1980 2011 was. Was a short a quarter cycle. You know, that never got to play out in full. And as I’ve said, it’s almost the first leg of a five leg move. So that’s a big number. We’ve also had 330 what we’ve done before is we’ve taken the inaccurate stats of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPIA, aucsl, and we’ve divided it into silver. Just to show you how undervalued truly silver is, let me just get the correct silver chart with a bit longer history. Forgive me for that that pivoted to a broker I use USD. We want a nice history, nice, long history. And, oh, and, or should do, let’s do oranda, yeah, so that will give you a far so what have we got here? This is, it’s pivoted to gold. I want to just set it back to silver, because that seems to be a particular interest, but it’s very interesting on gold as well. This silver is yet to follow. Gold. I don’t know if you’ve got a little bit of a view of the gold, but this is yet to follow. So in terms of current pricing, we haven’t even matched the 2011 high in the official understating, in my opinion, inflation stats of the BLS. So just in terms of what inflation you have found, you are really buying right now, discounted silver at $39 $38 $37 really discounted silver. This overall pattern, however, is again, one of our volatility constriction funnels, and we actually say the third impulse, you should treat it as a breakout. So that is a breakout for silver. For us, you have three distinct impulses in here. This is a very long term chart, but that should be good news. You are already in a breakout, but it’s truly still very cheap, and the running comes after that triggering event. Often, in the beginning, you have a little bit of a go and a revisit, then you get the melt up stage, and that’s going to be face melting, but it’s not going to be good news in the world. Generally, it’s going to be good news for you. You really need to think about your neighbors, and how many people know that you have precious metals. You’ve got to worry about security and all of that, I fear it’s a reset which comes with all sorts of social problems, cost of living issues and potential attack vectors. If you’re one of the gilded survivors that actually did the right thing, the government is going to treat you as an enemy, because they actually want you financially destroyed, Ward of state, part of a UBI welfare system, which is part of a global Marxism that is being brought to bear on the western world. So that’s where I get pretty dark. Seize the opportunity. There are opportunities to build incredible wealth in these times, but recognize it’s going to be a polarizing event, and the 95% are unfortunately on the wrong side, and they all become enemies and attack vectors and cuddle up to government and statism in their resentment towards you. So some of that CV 19 didn’t take the medical intervention type vibes can reoccur only now it’s financial and it’ll be access to food, VIP access lines, empty shelves, price controls. There’s a lot we can still do if we go down the full blown Marxism, which I think this real world asset tokenization, digitization, biometrics, surveillance state wants to bring in and at a final little bit resetty type by Palantir Blackstone and BlackRock are not your friends, and you aren’t doing enough to undermine them.
Trey Reik 1:03:49
Terrific. Well, we’re going to have to come back with a more detailed look at the hunt, you know, volatility funnel. But I want to ask you one last question for folks who are following precious metals, are there other confirmations that you look for patterns with, say, the DXY index or CFTC positioning or breadth and gold stocks? Is there some one or two other things folks can be tracking to give a signal that we may be meeting one of these inflection points.
Francis Hunt 1:04:23
So a couple of reasons why I felt that we’d probably be taking a rest on gold came also in comparing gold. So we do 360 degree analysis. The dollar is part of the story, as you know. So we take a semi serious Fiat like the Swiss franc, and you’ll notice that we also ran two targets here, which is why we think we pause here for a while. These came out of long term. This is on a monthly timeframe. It’s gold against the Swiss franc, which is not the hegemon currency, but a semi serious one that’s probably got the least unsound money principles, although still. Fiat and still going down to gold, as you can see. And a couple of targets were met. So that’s why we again came to the analysis that broadly we would not be leveraged trading gold long anymore, since this breakout move. The other things you mentioned are, how do we know that the resets going down beyond gold and precious metals? There’s a couple of charts I watch. One is the cheap funding market of the Japanese yen that I feel that America has been exploiting, not you as Americans, your Wall Street friends that have been undermining the soundness of your currency and money. Those guys and this particular structure is a great concern. And I watched the 141 142 zone on the USD JPY. So we have a sort of M head here, and we are concerned that if there’s a violent reversal, by the way, this was August last year, this one, when you had the carry trade vibes, if we were to get a violent reversal here and break this down, that would be an acceleration in the debasement of the dollar, and that would see a lot of money having to go back to pay yen based loans. So what’s actually been happening that many average american doesn’t realize is there’s a conveyor belt between Japan and the US of cheap wholesale funding that’s been used to go play casino America. So you get the cheap money here that you borrowed large amounts, some of it for long term and chased risk assets in America. It’s been a cheap trade. You pay very little, you can borrow millions, then eventually, if you’re doing it successfully, hundreds of millions and institutions, potentially billions and chase up mag seven stocks or treasuries that are paying a higher yield in Japan, and you always needed the Japanese currency to be losing value to the dollar. If that reverses violently, that could cause a great problem. So that’s one of the problems that will be very reset orientated. The other key markets are to watch the debt markets, particularly the longer term. The harder they get out of shape, the worse it is. And we’ve again said, you may recall, and I always make this point, our most significant call, and we called for oil to trade single digits when it was $67 and hadn’t done so for 35 years. This is the most damaging call, the reversal in trend on the debt market. So this is the yield on a 30 year US instrument, and it went as low right here during the events of CV 19 as naught point 07 and this goes onwards and up and higher. And you’ve actually been sitting in a bit of a containment area here, where, long term, we expect higher moves, and that is going to make everyone exposed to debt instruments as a borrower face escalating hikes. It’s going to be very negative for homeowners who have a lot of equity in homeowners. I always say, if you’re, if we’re in the big, short moment where there was, you know, you may recall he was saying the stripper had four houses with no money down, you know, just because she was getting this informal cash in Vegas somewhere. You remember the scene if you’re one of those guys, let’s say or gals, that have 10 Airbnbs on near to nothing, money down, and they were in Florida and Vegas, or whatever the case may be, and you’ve been Airbnb and paying your mortgage costs out of the rental for that, and initially it was going in your favor. It’s not a good time. You could become a forced seller. Your your borrowing costs could be going up, and the ability for people to rent could be going down, and the amounts they’re prepared to pay, and you’ll be flushed out and probably credit damaged as a result of that, and deeply financially damaged, potentially maybe bankrupt, etc, etc. So be careful for those that are over leveraged, or in assets that are over leveraged. The same goes for very expensive sports cars that you put very little money down and you’ve rolled in HP agreements, you know, a shortfall out from a previous car onto the new car. Those This is not a good time to be exposed to interest rate risk that is going to flush a lot of people, particularly in the US we’re borrowing, is an institutional pastime
Trey Reik 1:09:25
that’s trying to find the last question. But you keep bringing things up that are interesting. I promise this is the last question. I know what you think of the dollar long term, but the dollars come down a lot this year. What do you think of the dollar short term? And then we’ll wrap it up.
Francis Hunt 1:09:41
So you probably noticed that what I’ve said on gold and silver is actually short term. It’s been, and we’ve been saying this for a week or so, a little bit softer and and down, and possibly a little bit more down if we have an event on the on the macro, all good for eventually, new highs and. More and beyond. That does point to the fact that the dollar has lost and been a one way bet for a long, long time on the Dixie. That’s the that’s the monthly. So it’s been a little more choppy now that’s got a lot of euro in it, and it’s become very interesting that the Euro rates are starting to creep up, and I’ve tied in the narrative of Trump, the great negotiator. It’s actually nothing to do with that, but the Eurozone is going to be lending Ukraine money that they’re going to buy US military hardware. So the beneficiary is the US. They reduce that trade debt. And I treat all governments as all part of the same cartel, I’m afraid, because the US needs the inflow while Europe’s borrowing costs are still lower than the United Kingdom in America, so they’re going to be loading up with debt to get similarly in the leper colony, everyone must have scabs, basically to if you’ll forgive the phrase. So we all got to kiss this the chief leper. So the eurozone has got some ugly up to do they were giving loans to South Africa for an energy transition. I mean, South Africa is not a state of Europe. Why are you giving 4.4 billion? So there’s a lot of throwing money and doing damaging stuff to the overall European debt market to bring it up to a level where it’s similar anyway. So long story, you had a little bit of a bounce. Actually, I still think dollar is going to be soft, broadly against most currencies. This, for example, technically, on the Dixie, is a continuation pattern for us, even though you’ve had a rally. That is a broadening structure off of we call it an in a megaphone. So that’s the pole where the megaphone is just upside down. So we expect downside continuation. So I’d expect you’ll make new lows at some point, even though short term, you’re trading up. So there’s a little bit on the lower time frames. They shake you out of the trade on that. But dollar weakness since this point at 110 has been the trade. You’ve gone through 100 and you’re likely to go through a little lower watch that pound if that UK debt brings the UK to the fore. So you know, you may find the dollar doesn’t do so badly against the pound if they suddenly come into focus again on that but broadly, it’s not a good dollar environment. I’ll just bring up the yen again, I’ll show it to you on a lower time frame, because you do want to really watch this one, because it’s such an important funding mechanism. So I’ve been watching that. And you know, we kind of sitting here as well, which is a little bit of a flag. So whilst you can stay in a while, the next major move, I suspect, will be to the downside, and I think this key triggering event could occur. You can see how many alerts I’ve got sitting here. We literally are the gatekeeper for big mayhem coming, and we aim always to be ahead of the crowd to ensure we get great entries, tight stops and big moves, and you can see how much we’re watching that very low vol which is often a precursor to a move. Look at those bodies, very small over here. And this is a massive head and shoulder structure. We call it a complex head and shoulder because it’s got a bit of an M in there. So if that’s breaks down, you’re looking at a move that will take you a lot further down. So dollar is in trouble. It’s the lead hegemon, and they need debasement, and they have records in everything, record debts, record trades, deficits with other nations. They need, basically, to make it so expensive that no one can buy imports. Mercedes won’t sell as many cars in America, except to the very rich, and they’ll probably be tariffed up to the hilt so that the government gets a tax take BMW the same. So you’re going to be buying a lot more American and even still, the price is going to be going up, because your currency is going to be leading the debasement charge. If that happens, that is going to be the big dollar crisis. I always say it, the hegemon falls off a 26 foot ladder. Everyone else is on a three foot three step ladder and a five step ladder, etc, etc. You fall hardest. I’m afraid that’s not good news. I’m not here to terrorize you or make you feel bad. Buy your gold and silver, but you don’t have to pick up the pieces either. Have alternatives outside the USA, and for those that are staying, get rural, is my advice. And get self reliance, and watch how the laws will change. I fear the government scavenge mode, which is going down in the UK and the US tariffs are scavenged. It’s a see absolute chasing down revenue. This was this whole Elon theme only. There was no cuts that were delivered. You got the big, beautiful bill. The real truth is they need debasement and inflation, and they want to keep stealing from you, which they do when they do the military industrial complex through all the intermediation and everything else. So we in, we’re in the era of lies, where truth is a revolutionary act, I’m afraid. So that’s why I love charts, because I don’t care what they. Say, I know what I see and I know what to expect next. And this is a big pair you should be watching. Debt markets is a big pair you should be watching, if people wanted to short the debt markets, for example, you want to watch the TLT. It’s a big, big, long term debt ETF, which you can also sell so but I think not, not immediately, just yet, I think the currency is going to take more of the beating you’ve already had. As I highlighted, a 55% loss from the highs the recent highs. So you always lockstep, one after the other, and we on the currency beating for a bit now. So yeah, sorry, sorry for the bad news, but there’s things you can do. You were born for these times. You chose your parents to get to come down here. You are strong. Take Action, get a place outside of the Western world. That’s what our community focus on, is we have a lot of Americans and also secure precious metals, but recognize that the West has been identified for crushing and we’ve had much higher income levels per population than the rest of the world. And boy, do they want to bring in the global Marxism, and that’s your big problem, the targets on our bats now in as Westerners. So we’ve got to, we’ve got to defend ourselves from a globalized attack vector.
Trey Reik 1:16:25
Francis, that was incredible. Thank you so much for your time, and I do want to get a promise from you that you’ll let us stop back in a couple months to talk a little bit more in detail about how the funnel model works. Will that be okay with you?
Francis Hunt 1:16:39
Always? Good luck to all the wealthy and fans. Give the channel a like and subscribe. They’re doing their damnedest. You’re doing God’s work out there. And thank you for having me on again. We’ll certainly serve you again if we are of good service and you want us and James can come and find a little more about us. On the market, Sniper, YouTube channel, also on X on the market, sniper and we have links to book a call if you wanted to chat and engage with us further in terms of becoming a member in our community. Our goal is to build wealth in a very unique time, reset times, preserve wealth which is almost more important in reset times, and also secure ourselves lifestyle based freedoms and optionality in totalitarian times, which is my big concern for the overreaching government and
Trey Reik 1:17:28
status. Excellent, Francis, thank you very much. Absolute pleasure. Bye for now, for viewers who are interested in digging deeper into investing opportunities in silver markets, please remember to click on the link in the description below to obtain a free copy of wealthion Silver Investing report. And even more importantly, for those looking for a little guidance in these volatile times and markets, if you’re interested in a free portfolio review from one of wealthion partners, please visit wealthion.com/free with markets at all times highs and another volatile year now’s a great time to stress test your strategy and be prepared for what comes next. Thank you for watching, and we’ll see you next time you so you.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai
