David Woo accurately predicted that an Israeli strike on Iran was imminent exactly two weeks ago here on Wealthion. We’re privileged to welcome David back to update us on the geopolitical and market implications of last Saturday’s events. Calling the strike a “stroke of genius,” Woo discusses its impact on Middle Eastern stability and why it’s bearish for oil. He also shares his predictions for the upcoming U.S. elections, forecasting a Trump win and the potential impact of a Republican administration on the U.S. economy, equity markets, an increase in oil production, and its effects on the global geopolitical landscape
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David Woo 0:00
I think what Israel did, you know over the weekend, it was a stroke of genius, and I think they did it with very little, very little blood, by very careful planning, very precise, basically targeting and very clever thinking, Israel has completely destroyed Iran’s ability to defend itself against any future air attack. I think this has very important consequences. This is what I was telling my clients yesterday, that why you should be selling loyal you know, buying stocks today.
James Connor 0:33
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James Connor 0:58
David. Thank you very much for joining us today. A lot has happened in the Middle East since we last spoke. And the last time we spoke, you said an attack by Israel on Iran was imminent, and you were correct. It did happen this past weekend, but you also said it would go on for many days, and it was over in less than 24 hours. I want to hear your current assessment on what happened this past weekend. Yeah,
David Woo 1:21
I think, you know, actually, honestly, you know, like, you know, you have to constantly adjust your view. I think, you know, my view is that the Israeli attack on Iran was so successful that actually, as you know, it’s actually shortened the conflict, by the way. And let me explain to you what I mean by that. And I think it’s very important to understand the details. Now, you know, you know, as you know, on Saturday morning we have this strike and and, you know, a press release, you know, basically given by the Iranian military, actually, on Saturday was that while Israeli planes were prevented from entering, you know, the Iranian airspace, and that any damage was very limited. They they hit a couple of radars, and that repair was already underway. So Saturday, the news was very I mean, the news flow was that, wow. What did Israel just do? It was a nothing burger. Now, of course, as time wore on, we learned more more about what actually happened and what really happened was huge, and it was actually very successful. And let me explain to you what I mean by that. First of all, we had all of his worth, you know, again, you know, this is not, this is going to be one of these situations. Where is you say this, and you say that, and whatever it is. So let’s quote The New York Times. Quote, It was worth. So the New York Times, you know, published an article yesterday based on interviews with three Israeli officials and three remaining officials, what did the article said? It said that Israel okay destroy the air defense systems protecting Iran’s major oil facilities and petrochemical complexes. Okay? And what I mean by air defense system. We’re talking about our radars and the anti aircraft batteries. So Israel took them out, okay? And in fact, actually, it was interesting, because on top of that, on top of that, we now have confirmation that Israel has taken out at least three, if not more, of the Russian s3 100 air defense missile system, which are the most advanced system that Iran has. They just got some of the s4 100 system, but they’ve just been delivered. I don’t think they’ve been deployed yet. So what I’m telling you is that Israel has completely destroyed Iran’s ability to defend itself against any future air attack. In fact, actually, despite the you know, the you know the the the attempt by the Iranian government to play down the whole incident, on Saturday, the New York Times article quoting three Iranian official as saying that actually the Israeli attack has raised deep alarm, deep alarm in Iran, about the ability of Iran to protect itself against any future Israeli attack. So that’s the first part of what Israel did, which was to say, You know what, we’re not going to hit your oil fields, we’re not going to basically hit your petrol complexes, and we’re not going to hit your airport, but we’ve taken out your ability to defend these basically critical infrastructure, you know? So from that point of view, you could argue that Israel sent a very strong message, like we could have destroyed these things, but we didn’t. But what we did do is we destroyed your ability to protect these things, so that if you continue to basically hurt us, as you said you would in the past, then we’re going to basically in the next time, it’s not going to be so poor. Be so pretty. So that’s the first thing Israel did. The second thing Israel did was this, okay, that Israel actually destroyed the backbone of Iran’s, basically, missile missile production capabilities. Now, first of all, we had, essentially by now. We have a lot of satellite images based on commercially available stuff, you know. I mean, there’s military stuff that I don’t have access to, but the commercially available satellite image shows very clearly the following, which is the Israel basically struck two places, basically Parchin, which is a major, essentially nuclear center, and closure, which is a major missile Production Center, okay? Now what they did to Parchin? We have no idea. We have satellite pictures showing that a few buildings were blown out. All I can tell you is that parchment has been long associated with Iran’s nuclear development. We have no idea. I cannot tell you right now you know whether Israel targeted would destroy any of Iran’s nuclear basically, development, okay? Because we don’t know Israel certainly, if Israel did, Israel would not be admitting it publicly, because Israel told the US that they wouldn’t touch Iran’s nuclear program. And then if it did, guess what, Iran is probably not going to be admitting it either, because they’ll be very embarrassing. Okay, so we have no idea whether Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear program in this strike, but what we do know is that Israel destroyed at least 12, if not more, of the industrial mixers for producing solid fuel for the use of producing ballistic missiles. Now, these industrial mixers are very difficult to make, so the Iranians don’t make them. They don’t know how to make them. They spend years trying to import them by circumventing export restrictions of countries that actually do produce them. Okay? And then you cannot make ballistic missiles without these things. So if you remember Iran, one of the two big things that they have developed in terms of their technological edge in defense, one is drone, the other one’s ballistic missiles. And in fact, they’ve been sending hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia, actually, over the past few months, which really pissed off the Americans. And then they’ve been sending these ballistic missiles to to to Hezbollah and to the Houthis. In fact, these are the same missiles that they attack Israel with. Only basically a month ago, their ability to make these missiles now is going to be extremely limited, so Israel is basically dealt back. So what I’m telling you is that Israel actually, notwithstanding what the Iranians might have said on Saturday, it looked like Israel pulled off a massive attack on Iran, but massive attack in the sense that the market doesn’t understand. It’s massive because nobody got killed. But that’s the beauty of this whole entire thing, that Israel basically carried out a very target and very precise, you know, essentially mission where it took out Iran’s ability to defend itself against any future air attack in a basically rendering Iran completely naked. Actually, you want to put it that way. And then this took out the ability to basically make a lot of ballistic missiles, which has been the primary, you know, essentially the arsenal of Iran is basically a new war on Israel and elsewhere. So I think that is, and it’s actually very interesting, because yesterday, again, we’re not talking about Sunday. In Sunday, you know, Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, finally spoke out, and this is what he had to say. He said that the evil act committed by design is against us, should not be either underplayed or exaggerated. Now it’s interesting because it sounds completely different than what we were told by the Iranians that Israel did very limited damage. Okay. In fact, if you ask me, it is as clear an emission on the part of Iran that actually what Israel did was much greater, much more severe that Iran had been prepared for. I think this has very important consequences. This is what I was telling my clients yesterday, that why you should be selling oil, you know, buying stocks today, which is that
David Woo 9:07
back in the beginning of October, when Okay, Iran decided to strike Israel. Finally, it was only because the Revolutionary Guards in Iran managed to persuade Khamenei that if they didn’t strike Israel, that it would only embolden Israel to basically, to, to basically hit Iraq, right? Because the whole the argument that the generals, you know, were making to Khamenei was that, wow, you know, listen, because we didn’t respond to Israeli assassination of, you know of the Hamas leader in Tehran back in August. This is the reason why Israel went on to assassinate nasarat. Okay, and and then now it basically kills sila. So as a result, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards who were basically itching to go to for a fight with Israel. Managed to convince Khamenei that they had no choice but to basically hit Israel. But guess what? They hit Israel, and Israel came back and hit them 100 times harder, okay, and then also exposing the fact that Iran is like in person, new clothes with no with no clothes, actually. And to the extent, in that sense, I think the Revolutionary Guards have lost a lot of credibility with Khamenei, with the cleric regime. And this is why I think it’s very unlikely now the Khamenei is going to agree to another attack on Israel, because that will be suicidal. Okay, so I think from that point of view, that’s what I said from the outset. I think the Israeli attack was far more successful than I’d expected. I thought, you know, they’re going to hit Iran, and Iran is going to hit back, and then you’re going to see an all out war breaking out. But instead, I think what Israel did was like, Wow, that’s pretty amazing. And that has, I think, really put Iran in its place, and then it did it in a way. They didn’t embarrass Iran. I mean, to an extent. They could have blown up the oil fields. They couldn’t blow up this and this and that. They didn’t do that. They just sent a very, very strong message to Iran, don’t mess it. Don’t mess it with us, you know. And in that sense, you could argue that Iran can get away with this without, you know, sort of looking bad. And I think for Iran, it’s all about their face, and that’s what matters. So
James Connor 11:28
that was going to be my next question. I guess the ball is in Iran’s court. What do you think they do? And it from what you just said, you don’t think they’re going to do much now, I
David Woo 11:37
don’t think going to do much now. I certainly don’t think they’re going to do anything before the US election. Now, I think one thing they can do, I think the only thing they can do is to make a run for nuclear immunity. I mean, which is to basically, simply make a bomb as soon as possible. If they do that, obviously Israel will have no choice but to basically attack again, and this time, it will not be pretty. So I think there’s going to be a little bit of this going on, which is that, especially if Trump gets elected, then Iran might decide to go for nuclear threshold before Trump is sworn in. Okay, so that they achieve this sort of the nuclear deterrence that you that North Korea has, and Israel obviously has a very good intelligence otherwise it wouldn’t been able to do what, what it did over the weekend, as easily as it did. So from that point of view, then you say, well, that situation can blow up, but that I don’t know. I don’t I don’t know how to handicap that odds that Iran decides to go for nuclear immunity. I think right now, I have to believe that Iran is in the total state of disarray. Okay, now I do think that. So that’s one thing. What you know, in that sense, is it’s in Ron’s court. I think there’s something else going on, which is that, you know, I don’t, if you hear, you can probably hear my phone ringing, because I’ve got a an app that every Israeli has, that, you know, that that goes off when there are attacks, and then there are attacks just, you know, the last few minutes, you know, from Iran, from Hezbollah, from Lebanon, which is continuing. Okay, now, Israel would like to put an end to that. Obviously, Israel will also like to stop the war in Gaza. Israel has a certain demand, which is, Israel wants to, wants to see the Hezbollah abide by the UN resolution impo basically to the north of the litani River. Okay? Because the UN resolution always envisaged the southern part of Lebanon to be a buffer zone. Okay, so Israel wants Hezbollah to move back to where they were supposed to be, which is again north of the Litany River, which is about 1015, kilometers from the from the border. Israel also would like to end the war in Gaza, okay, but in exchange, Israel would like to basically keep, okay, the Philadelphia corridor, which divides Gaza with Egypt, which has, which Hamas has used to smuggle, you know, millions of tons of weapons through, you know, tunnels underneath, you know, the Philadelphia corridors Israel. So wants to keep that Israel probably would like to basically, also have basically turned northern part of Gaza into a buffer zone of sorts, let’s say two or three or four kilometers of that. Okay, and Israel would like to basically get the hostages back. So now Israel can decide. I think Israel’s position vis a vis Iran has been greatly strengthened as a result of what happened this Saturday. Now the question is, how you know strongly Israel is going to squeeze Iran? You know, as you you know, again, I don’t know if this is going to be the next few days. Israel might decide to wait until Trump gets in and so on so forth, but I think this is where it gets interesting, which is, is Iran prepared to now come to the table, put pressure on Hezbollah and Hamas to do a deal with Israel, in order to avail to in order to bring down the temperature of the whole thing, given that, you know, Israel has just basically showing up, Iran’s basically shortcoming in protecting itself. I don’t. Long basically launching more attack on Israel. And
James Connor 15:02
the last time we spoke, you said the risk level now in the Middle East is the highest you’ve seen in the last 20 or 30 years. It sounds like you don’t think that’s the case anymore.
David Woo 15:11
I think you know. Again, you know. This is why I think you know. You know. Sometimes less is more. I think what Israel did you know over the weekend, it was a stroke of genius, and I think they did it with very little, very little blood, by very careful planning, very precise, basically targeting, and very clever thinking, I think, on the part of Bibi Netanyahu. Okay, again, you want to hit Iran hard, but you don’t want to embarrass the Iranians, to force them to feel like they have to basically hit back and and now what’s happened is, I think the Iranian military has lost credibility in the eyes of the religious rulers, okay, in Tehran. And I think that actually, ultimately, is probably not a bad thing in itself.
James Connor 15:57
So I want to ask you about Turkey. Now, Turkey’s been very much against Israel and what they’ve done in the Middle East, and they’ve said this past weekend that they have brought our region to the brink of a greater war following the strikes on Iran and Turkey been a very harsh critic of Israel’s and their military operations in Gaza and also Lebanon. What are your thoughts on what Turkey
David Woo 16:20
irrelevant. I mean, Turkey is right now, you’re looking at an economy that is struggling, that are the ones approval rating is low, and then, you know, and is that Turkey is the non player. Turkey talks big, but I think in the day, what is it going to do? What is it going to do? And so from that point of view, I think, again, I think the issue here is also what Turkey says is not very often. It’s not necessarily consistent on what it does. In fact, you know, we have seen very little action. Turkey has been talking very big against Israel, but it’s pulled very few real punches. Okay, so I think from that point of view, like, I don’t think Turkey, in overall scheme of things, matters, sure. I think what’s interesting is that Turkey now is apply. I think the big news last week is the fact that Turkey is one of the applicants to to the bricks, actually. So Turkey is going to be the first NATO member applying to joy bricks. So I think this is going to get very interesting, because, as you know, Trump and Erdogan did not get along, wow. And I don’t know to what extent Erdogan is already trying to hedge himself, but this is going to get very interesting. Okay, that Turkey is now playing up to Russia. But then again, Turkey has always been Turkey. Turkey is opportunistic. Okay, they’re gonna basically, you know, they’re gonna go wherever the wind is blowing them. And I think, you know, from that point of view, they sit in between Asia, Europe and the Middle East. That’s probably the only way they can go so far. You know, like the Turkish economy is doing very poorly against this whole backdrop of polarizing, you know, polarization we’ve seen in the in the world economy. Turkey cannot compete with China on manufacturing, okay? And then so, from that point of view, like, you know, Turkey is also feeling, I mean, I mean, I would say that Turkey’s economic destiny, okay, is now looking more questionable than any time in the last 20 years.
Andrew Brill 18:25
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James Connor 19:02
So let’s talk about the oil price. You mentioned earlier that you’re advising your clients to sell, and even last week, when we spoke, you said, if oil does catch a bit, or if it pops, use it as an opportunity to sell into it, because you thought the oil price would go lower. It’s currently down 5% today, and it looks like it wants to head down to 60 bucks a barrel. What are your thoughts on oil here in the coming weeks?
David Woo 19:24
I think, again, as you know, like, I think I’m very bullish on Trump. I think, you know, I think Trump is going to win. I think it’s going to be a landslide. I don’t even think it’s going to be that close. And I think Trump, because Trump is going to be facing a massive US budget deficit. Okay, I don’t think, I think the market’s wrong in thinking that Trump is gonna go in and blow up the deficit even more like, you know, I think, you know, people tend to think the worst of Donald J Trump. I think Trump, I think, is gonna try to basically go for the low lying fruit, okay, which is, get the economy. Be growing, okay, 3% a year. If the economy can grow 3% a year for the next four years, the deficit will come down to 3% GDP by the end of his second term. And how are you going to do that? He’s going to do that through a combination of basically very aggressive, massive deregulations. And he’s going to do that by increasing oil production. You know, again, under Trump 1.0 US oil production went up by 4 million barrels per day. Okay. Before, you know, COVID came along. Okay. Now we’ve only like and then went down and under. Biden has made a slowly recovery. We’re now back to where we were at the end of basically 2019 so it’s possible that, you know, under Trump 2.0 we can see another 3 million barrel increase per day of oil production, and that’s going to drive oil prices to the roof, I mean, to the floor, actually. And then on top of that, we, you know, Chinese oil demand is very weak, especially as China is trying to, you know, transition out of petrol cars into EVs, which I think is only going to celebrate last month, you know, last three months, with the first time ever that more than 50% of Chinese car sales or EVs, okay? And I think from that point of view, the combination of rising oil product, rising US oil production, and basically, weak Chinese oil demand, not to mention the fact that the Russians, the Saudis, everybody, want to basically produce more next year, and the non OPEC productions going through the roof, like I think will, price is probably going to be heading much low. So
James Connor 21:33
this is a good segue to my next question. You talked about the election, and if, and I want to ask you about the election, just in terms of foreign policy. And if Harris wins, I’m assuming it’s business as usual as it pertains to foreign policy. What happens if Trump wins? And I guess I want to first start with the Middle East.
David Woo 21:50
I think Trump win is, I think, you know, I think Biden has brought the world to the edge of world war three. Okay? I think Trump is going to basically get in and pull the world back from world war three. The fact is that Trump was the first US president since Jimmy Carter, who did not send us troops into new US foreign conflicts. I mean, I don’t know if you recall. Most of your viewers. Probably don’t. In september 2022, months before the US election in 2020 Trump came out publicly attacking his own generals, saying that they were unnecessarily prolonging the foreign conflicts the US was involved in so that their buddies at defense contractors can sell more planes, more tanks and get more people killed. So arguing from that point of view, Trump has nothing. I mean, listen, put it this way, many US politicians have been basically under the thumb of the defense industry, which is now a trillion dollar industry. Trump does not play to that industry from things that you know, like, you know the deficit is already big enough, we need to basically spend money that can help the average person to improve. Is basically the quality of life, as opposed to trying to basically feed the, you know, industrial, you know, defense machine to get more people killed around the world. So I think, from that point of view, I think Trump is going to end the Ukraine war very quickly by essentially the pulling back us support for Zelensky. That’s going to force Zelensky to basically do a deal with Putin. Now that I’m not saying that Trump is going to make it easy for Putin. It’s going to be tough negotiation ahead, but Trump is going to be knocking their heads together until they basically do a deal, and then I think, as far as China is concerned, I think Trump is going to be a real Trump is going to be a tough negotiator, no doubt about that. But Trump is a negotiator. That’s a difference, because Biden didn’t even negotiate. The way that Biden deal with China is like, every three months, Biden will send another senior guy to Beijing and said, You know what, you guys better do exactly what we tell you, or otherwise we’re going to screw you up, which is what the Americans did. Okay? So as a result, there has been no negotiation between US and China for the last four years. I mean, the relationship between US and China is now at the worst, ever, worse, ever. Okay, so from that point of view, like I think, let’s put it this way, the bar for Trump is very low and and I have good reasons, especially given what Trump did in the first term, I have very good reason to believe that he’s going to be great. Okay, I don’t think he’ll be that great for Canada, where you are, because I think Trudeau is a total loser. But other than that, I think basically, like, I think Trump is going to do very well. I think for countries that want to basically, really seriously do something good for their own people, to find win win situation. Trump doesn’t care about ideology. He has no he’s not a he’s he’s not a super capitalist, he’s not a super socialist, he’s nothing. He’s a pragmatist. And that’s what we need in America. So
James Connor 24:53
I have to ask you about Trudeau and the comments you just made. Why do you say that? Because Trudeau,
David Woo 24:58
if just think about what. Trudeau has done for the Canadian economy. I mean, if I look at what Trudeau has done the last whatever, eight years he’s been in there, all I see is that Canadian debt has been going through the roof. Canadian growth has been coming down. So even when the US is doing well, usually Canada, you know, basically, can sort of, like, benefit a little bit from the big, bigger brother, doing better, and then truck along with the US economy. Nothing. Okay, so if you look at what’s happening the Canadian economy is that you’ve got a lot of debt, you’ve got an over value housing market that’s now basically rolling over. You’ve got no growth. You’ve got negative productivity growth. I mean, look at the productivity differential between US and Canada since COVID, it’s not even funny to look at. You wouldn’t even think that these two countries basically belong to the same planet, let alone basically big neighbors. So I think Trudeau has to take a huge plane for that. And this is the reason why I think Trudeau is going to be the next election. Is going to, you know, I think the Canadian voters are finally waken up, okay? Because at this rate, with more which we know, staying there for much longer, like Canada is just going to become like Iran, Canadian. Let me just put it this way. If you look at total debt, public and private debt together as a share of GDP, the number one, of course, in the world, is Japan. Number two now is Canada in France. I mean, it’s crazy. It’s way ahead of the US, by the way, and that, as we all know, is a recipe for stagnation, and that’s what Canada can look forward to, unfortunately for the Canadians,
James Connor 26:35
yeah, just to provide a little more context to to our viewers, uh, GDP, per capita in Canada has been declining for five years. You mentioned labor productivity that’s been in a decline for 10 years, which corresponds to the entire time Trudeau has been into office. So it’s going to be interesting what happens here during the next election, which we think might happen sometime in 2025 providing you still around. But I want to ask you about what you said about Ukraine. And you said, if Trump wins, that’s going to bring an end to the war, because he’s not going to be funding or the US will not be funding the Ukrainian more anymore. What does that do to other Western nations, let’s just say, in Europe or the UK? I
David Woo 27:17
think, actually, ironically, I think it’s actually bullish for the UK. Now, I think there are many ways this thing can go like because again, we have, you know, the German government right now is going to stay until the next federal election, which is not for another year. Okay, so I don’t see a massive change in terms of European policy towards Russia in the near term. Maybe the next election is going to bring a different approach. But right now, I look at someone like Macron, who is no different than Trudeau, who’s also a loser, by the way, and both of them came out of the World Economic Forum, by the way, and then all they have, they’re just basically obsessed with their woke ideology and their progressive you know, essentially the thing which are completely irrelevant in terms of serving the best interests of their own people. But right now, the way I see this is that if, I mean, the Europeans will have no choice but to go along if the US decide to pull the plug on Ukraine, right? I mean, because, I mean, I think Europe is not prepared to take over the financing of the war in Ukraine on his own. Okay, so if Europe views Okay, the US is being more, leaving a vacuum behind. It is very possible that the European Union might see the UK as a mini replacement for the US, and that’s how our Starmer is trying to sell to the EU, which is that UK is a nuclear power Bae system, the UK defense company is the biggest, you know, defense manufacturer in Europe, that UK is going to step up to the play and help Europe basically become prepared in the event of any future Russian invasion of Europe, you know. So I think from that point of view, UK actually might benefit. It’s already benefiting. I mean, I would say that actually, the Starmer, in that sense, has played this card very well the last three months, so much so that the French and the Germans, the Italians, are talking about maybe greasing the plate for the UK, for the British, even while the UK is out of out of the EU, right? You know, of course, I don’t tell you, with the consumer, the conservative took the UK out of the European Union. Ever since, the UK economy has been going downhill. And then Starmer is trying to offer this defense for, you know, sort of for preferential economic treatment, you know, as an exchange. And I think it seems that we’re moving in that direction, and then Trump win probably will, will put the UK in a stronger position vis a vis the European Union. So
James Connor 29:48
Russia and North Korea entered into a defense treaty, and it’s reported that North Korea has sent troops to Russia to be trained. And I’m curious, I want to hear your views on. On why they entered into this agreement, and how does it benefit Russia? Listen,
David Woo 30:04
I mean, again, North Korean troops have not yet entered the war. By the way, the defense agreement, okay, signed between Russia and North Korea is that in the event that either country is attacked, okay, that the other country is going to come to its aid, right? Russia has been attacked by Ukraine. Right? Ukraine basically has invaded, you know, curse region has taken a piece of it, and that is the reason why the North Koreans are now in Russia, which is to simply send a message to to NATO, be careful. Okay, so I think, you know, I don’t know, you know North Korea is going to North Koreans are going to see any action, by the way, you know, in this war. But if they do, I’d be very surprised that they end up being sent into Ukraine. They probably will be fighting alongside Russian troops, maybe inside Russia against the Ukrainian invaders. Okay, that’s probably as far as you know. North Korea will go. I mean, well, Russia will go by, though, for that matter. Okay, so this is more of a message, okay, more than anything else meant for the consumption of Ukraine and NATO, which is, don’t do anything. I wouldn’t, right, because, you know, like, there was a lot of talk about NATO sending troops into Ukraine to fight Russia. Russia just wants NATO to stay out from this Ukraine war and and that’s why the North Korean presence is meant to basically dissuade, you know, NATO from getting directly involved, whether it’s the politics states or Poland or any other countries for that matter, getting
James Connor 31:47
involved. And do you see Russia entering into a defense agreement with Iran?
David Woo 31:52
I think right now? No, I mean, maybe it’s both thinking. On my part, I happen to live in Israel. I mean, hopefully I’m going to get my citizenship sometime next year, like I’ve got five grandchildren here in Israel. The last thing I want is for Iran and Russia to sign a defense agreement. But I somehow, I’m doubtful, because Israel and Russia have a very good relationship. I mean, Israel has been I mean, let’s put this way, Russia is the key maker in Syria. And Russia over the last five years, has turned a blind eye whenever Israel has chosen to attack Iranian bases inside Syria. Okay, so there was this tacit agreement, as long as Israeli attacks didn’t hit the Russians, the Russians were okay. If Israel were to, you know what to to hit Iran. Okay? Partly because also Russia and Iran are also vying for influence in Syria, but that’s a different story altogether. But also, meanwhile, I think if Russia, let’s put it this way, Russia has no interest. Putin has no interest in terms of enlarging this conflict with the West. And I’m still maintain that Putin is actually fighting a defensive war in Ukraine, that the Ukraine war began only because the US decided, under Biden decided to push aggressively for Ukrainian Ukraine’s membership in NATO. So, so, so I’m very I’m I probably belong to a small minority of people who believe that Russia is fighting a defensive war, and to me, that’s the only logical conclusion that Russia invaded Ukraine only to stop Ukraine becoming a NATO member. And there was no doubt the Biden administration was absolutely dead set on bringing Ukraine into NATO ASAP, because they thought that by bringing Ukraine into NATO, they will be able to deploy rock, you know, basically, missile launchers directly on Russia’s doorstep. They also thought, by doing so, they were going to weaken Russia so much that it was going to basically, you know, weaken China indirectly, you know, because when your little partner is is in trouble, you’re going to be in trouble. So I think, I think the Biden administration pursue a very aggressive foreign policy okay by insisting and promoting okay Ukraine’s NATO membership that left Russia with no choice but to invade. Just think about this. You know, when the US accept Russia to deploy missile launchers directly on its border, let’s just say in Canada or Mexico for that matter, clearly, when the Soviets tried to deploy missiles in Cuba that, you know, brought about the Cuban crisis, US found that completely unacceptable. Why should we expect Russia to find that acceptable to have Ukraine be part of NATO? You know? So I think from that point of view, the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine, it was not because it wanted to, it was not out of territory ambition, but actually was because it had no other choice. In fact, for a whole year before Russia moved into Ukraine, it was sending, you know, messages with the US every week, begging the Americans to come off it the idea of Ukraine in NATO, and then the Americans basically said, Go screw yourself. Then that was the end of the story. Okay, so from that point of view, I see no reason to think that the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine, that means that Germany is going to be next. Well, Poland’s going to be next. What that Russia now wants to basically take over all of the Middle East? No, it makes no sense to me whatsoever. I think Putin just rushed. The Russian just want to be left alone. They want to be left alone. Sure they have their pride. They want to basically be respected, looked up to. And I think the Russians are amazing civilization. I just think about the amount of culture that they created last 200 years, whether it’s literature, ballet, classical music, you name it, okay in literature. So from that point of view, I think that the Russians don’t even want that much. In fact, Russia mainly sees itself as a Western country. Russia has less in common with China, believe me, than it thinks it does with Europe. Is the West because of the US that pushed Russia away and now basically Europe is, you know, Germany is now in an economic depression, partly because of the US foreign policy under Biden, okay, that has cut off Germans, you know, supply of cheap energy from Russia. That has cut off Germany from the largest market of German export, which was China. So US foreign policy over the last four years under Biden has done great damage to the most important ally of the US, which is Germany, Europe, okay? Or for what, thank God, Trump is going to come in and basically make all this go away now, at least that’s what I hope.
James Connor 36:53
And this is why geopolitics is so important, because it has an impact on financial markets and commodities throughout the world. So with everything that’s happening in the world right now, how, what are you suggesting to your clients? How should they be investing?
David Woo 37:07
I think while, while I see, you know, Trump winning by a landslide, I think obviously I’m probably, again, in the minority, the market wants to believe this thing is going to be close. If it’s close, then the market does have a problem, no doubt about that. You know, just Friday, I don’t know if you saw the news. I mean, the Lancaster County, which is one of the counties in Pennsylvania, announced that they just discovered 2500 fraudulent Okay, voters registrations. I mean, it’s unbelievable, if you think about this, given how important Pennsylvania is in this election, arguably the most important state in this election, they just discover some fraudulent voter registrations. And is this? Is this an isolated incident? Was the tip of the iceberg? I have no idea, but I will be very, very worried, especially if the election is close. Okay? Another thing that we need to recognize is the fact that, you know, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, okay, they’re not allowed to start counting the mail in ballots until the morning of the election, which means, in Pennsylvania, we will know the actual final election results, at least probably not for the first three days. I would say probably we won’t get the results until probably Friday or even Saturday. Okay, so as a result, if it’s close, and then there is, you know, you know, discovery of fraud, and then we don’t get the final results, that can get very ugly. Okay, that’s not my central scenario, because I do think that, you know, Trump is going to win in Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, which would be enough to guarantee his victory, and then we will find that out, probably most likely already, by the by the night of the election. But nevertheless, what I’m saying is like, I can imagine, you know, obviously today the markets are because of the election, because of the war in the Middle East has abated. But I do think that the next three or four days, you know, I could imagine the market is starting to take some money off the table. So I want to, I think the market, you know, I think we could see a little bit of a profit taking correction. But I think if I’m right about a Trump basically landslide, I think like stock market is going to just going to go through the roof. It’s going to be very, very bullish for the US.
James Connor 39:21
Well, David, as always, that was a fascinating discussion. And as we wrap up, if someone would like to follow you online and get your thoughts on politics, on the economy, where can they go? They can
David Woo 39:32
check out my YouTube channel, David Wu Unbound, or they can check out my website for my investment strategy called David Wu, unbound.com
James Connor 39:42
Very good, David, once again, thank you.
David Woo 39:45
You’re welcome. Well, I
James Connor 39:46
hope you enjoyed that discussion with David Wu, and you have a better understanding of what’s happening in the Middle East and how it can impact financial markets. As David mentioned, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, and it takes a lot of skill navigating the markets and. If you need help doing so, or maybe you just want to have a simple conversation about your financial future and what it looks like, consider having a discussion with a wealthy on endorsed financial advisor, wealthion.com/free it’s a free service that wealthion offers to anyone who has an interest. Once again, That’s wealthion.com/free if you like this content, please subscribe, like and share and you can check out this next video.
