Macro & market analyst Darius Dale returns for Part 2 of our interview with him, in which he forecasts how the recession he predicts in Q4 will impact the stock and bond markets. In short, he expects a new low in equities while bonds, at least sovereign bonds like US Treasurys, should rise in price.
Darius Dale 0:00
Even if it’s a mild recession, it’s probably very likely that we see a new low in the market and the reason I say that is because we have not even entertain the face to credit cycle downturn and asset markets
Adam Taggart 0:15
Welcome to Wealthion. I’m Wealthion founder Adam Taggart. Thanks for joining us for part two of our interview with macro and market expert Darius Dale, if you haven’t yet watched part one of our discussion with Darius in which he explains why he sees an unfolding credit crunch, leading to a recession near the end of the year, head over to our channel at youtube.com/wealthion. And watch it there. First, it sets the context for the investment themes we discuss in this video. Darius also kindly shares how he’s allocating his portfolio for the rocky road he sees ahead in the markets. So get ready to take good notes. Okay. Well, let’s get started watching part two of our interview with Darius Dale, you expect a recession this year? I haven’t asked you I want to dig more deeply than we have time to in terms of sort of like the severity and duration of the recession that you expect. But if it’s if it’s one that you think is going to be meaningful, and I’ll let you define what meaningful is, what impact you think that is going to have on markets, and maybe maybe a question for you to react to there is May we find a new market bottom versus what we saw in 2022. In the type of recession that you see ahead.
Darius Dale 1:30
Yeah, even if it’s a mild recession, it’s probably very likely that we see a new low in the market. And the reason I say that is because we have not even entertain the phase two credit cycle downturn and asset markets. If you go back that chart where I showed the high beta low beta ratio, you’re still hanging out at 1.6. You know, that thing can drop by 60%, before we get to even pricing in a cyclic non a non recessionary cyclical slowdown. And so what that tells me is that if sector and style factor dispersion in the equity market is still very much not at all, even entertaining the aspect of recession, that tells me that, you know, we typically see in recession, which is, you know, kind of 28 to 27% drawdown in the s&p, we could easily see a 20 27% drawdown in the s&p from whatever price level we rally to this summer, you know that you know what I mean? Like, it’s, it’s people are thinking about it from the perspective of 4800 in January 2022, I would argue that has nothing to do with the recession, what we’ve experienced in 1400, in January 2022, to let’s call it 44,000, something now, that’s been primarily driven by the Phase One liquidity cycle downturn. And wherever the market is, when the market starts to get concerned about the phase two credit cycle downturn, that’s when you activate, you know, that kind of median 27% drawdown that you typically see in recession. And so I’m very, I’m very, I’m not concerned, you know, we’re very much preparing to see new lows in the s&p as a function of that, you know, again, where that is, is depends on the starting point, you know, where you might be three or four months from now.
Adam Taggart 2:59
Okay, okay. So, in this type of recession, how do you expect the major asset classes to fare I mean, I’m assuming it’s not gonna be great for most equities. But let’s talk about equities bonds, and let’s say commodities. How do you expect each to relatively fare in this?
Darius Dale 3:18
Yeah, so right now, bonds should rally pretty substantially. Right now fixed income, if you look at the terminal Fed funds rate floor, so obviously, everyone’s focused on the terminal Fed funds rate, you know, the height, the peak Fed funds, but we also run a, you know, models to indicate what money markets are pricing in, in terms of the floor. And if you look at it from the perspective of the overnight index swap market, it’s only at around 260 2070 basis points. So that’s effectively saying the markets pricing and let’s call it two and a quarter to two and a half percentage point percentage points are turning 50 basis points, the routes and Unimax basis in terms of rate cuts, on a median basis in recession. And going back to the recession table that we had, on a median basis during recession, the Fed typically cuts around 400 basis points on a median basis in recessions that are caused by monetary tightening as this one is likely to be it the Fed typically cuts 475 basis points. So what I’m effectively saying is there’s at least 125 or 175, more, you know, sort of basis points to be cutting for markets to price in in terms of rate cuts, in terms of the terminal Fed funds rate floor. So I think bonds are likely to rally pretty sharply in a phase two credit cycle downturns. So obviously, being allocated to fixed income makes a decent amount of sense.
Adam Taggart 4:31
All right. And just on that point, your and our friend, Alf peccadillo, he thinks we’re going back to Zurich when the Fed really fully pivots from here. I’m just curious, do you have similar confidence? He does have a reaction that extreme or do you want to wait to see what the conditions are like when it happens?
Darius Dale 4:50
Oh, no, I don’t believe we’re going back desert and the reason I don’t believe we’re going back to serve is twofold. One, from a from a structural standpoint, if you look The growth rate of credit, particularly private, non financial sector credit in the US economy, you look at where debt service ratios are, they’re obviously going to rise in recession as incomes go down. But if you look at the starting point, it’s very unlikely that we have anything that kind of resembles like, oh, wait, or, you know, you know, obviously COVID was its own, you know, particularly, you know, unique and circumstance where we basically just shaved off 20% of GDP at one day on one day, like, you know, these are very draconian circumstances, and I don’t want to succumb to the recency bias of the most two most recent market cycles, what’s more than likely to happen is that, you know, we have what is pretty much a standard business cycle got downturn, like a garden variety recession, where the Fed probably does cut, you know, let’s say, you know, three or 400 basis points gets the real Fed funds rate back to at least neutral, or at least zero in terms of in terms of stimulating the economy. And the reason I say that, and the reason I said there’s a second part of that discussion, is the fact that when you look at our secular inflation model, we built a sophisticated dynamic factor model that tries to help investors that tries to help us, you know, forecast the underlying trend in inflation, not the level of inflation in a given interval. But what the underlying trend of inflation should be based on its core relation and core integration with a variety of different variables in the economy. There are 17 different features in that model. And that model suggests that the underlying trend of core PCE has shifted from 1.6%, prior to COVID to 2.9%. Now, it’s currently a 2.9%. Now, that doesn’t sound like a lot, it’s like, well, who cares about 2.9% core PCE, the Fed does, because it’s 90 basis points higher than their, you know, their their price stability mandate, at least their stated price stability mandate. So it’s very unlikely that even in a recession scenario that we can get core PCE low enough to have the the Fed concerned about the economy enough to cut interest rates back to zero, I don’t think they’re going back to zero, I think they’ll probably stop somewhere around one or one and a half, when they do finally get into that rate cut QE party. But again, that’s that stuff, in our opinion, is a 2024 event. Now that 2020 driven.
Adam Taggart 7:02
Okay, great answer. And in terms of bonds. You know, we’ve hit a lot of love for bonds on this channel of late, understandably, right? I mean, it’s a place to with all this uncertainty to be parked in safety right now. I’m talking mostly about sovereign bonds right now be parked in safety get paid finally, something for it that that now is approximating the inflation rate, at least as measured by CPI. But then they also seem to have the optionality that you were referring to right, which is that if we get to a point where the Fed responds and brings rates down, then you get the capital appreciation on top of just the safety and the payments. So I’m curious, do you have a particular point of view right now in terms of buys is now a time to be adding more sovereign bonds is now a time to start beginning goat to go out and the duration side of things to capture some of that upside optionality?
Darius Dale 7:57
Yeah, we are we are maximizing fixed income in our in our portfolio structure. Now, again, I mentioned that before the construction process does not it does not have discretionary overlays. And that was actually a misnomer. Let me quickly show that for the for the viewers, it does not have any discretion overlays, the only discretion overlay we add is our sort of best idea which you can have a max exposure of 10%. And again, all these target exposures are guided by what the asset class is signaling from a weather model perspective, that that’s this stoplight indication. And then what the actual exposure is, is a function of what we call our volatility adjusted momentum signal. That’s our new our best guess on technical analysis. So if you look at our max exposure to the best idea, that’s 100%, because it’s currently both of those things that are 10%. Look at our max exposure and fixed income in terms of that bucket in that asset class, that’s 100%. Each of these is 100% Target exposure, the volatility, just momentum signals for each of these instruments is 100%, or each is 10%. And the reason we’re in those instruments in the first place, is because we are in a high conviction deflation regime, and we allocate our assets according to the highest expected value or highest expected Sharpe ratios in each regime going back to this, this back test process that we discussed. So to answer your question, Adam, I think the time to get max on fixed income was yesterday. Not today it’s yesterday. So you know, again, this is not me saying I think that it’s the system essentially system based on this compendium of indicators based on the volatility just supplemented signals at the actual factor exposure level that the time to get long fixed Max long fixed income was yesterday.
Adam Taggart 9:28
All right, and from from your models perspective, while the the absolute best time was to buy yesterday is today the second best time to buy them?
Darius Dale 9:35
So we do rockin so your these are good questions, we do run a what we call our problem range process. That’s a tactical trading signal process. So from a problem range perspective, we’re not quite at the lower the lower boundary of the range for something like TLT or something like ETV or sh y. We’re not at that high end of the range for bond yields. So this is not the best time from a technical standpoint to buy but if you’re busy motioning for medium term cycle risk. What difference does that make? Yeah. Doesn’t make a difference. Yeah.
Adam Taggart 10:06
I’m asking like, if someone’s watching this saying, Oh, my gosh, I missed the boat, or have I missed the boat boat now? No, absolutely,
Darius Dale 10:11
there’s at least there’s at least another 125 basis points in our opinion and in terms of bonds being able to price in the terminal policy rate floor. And so if that’s And don’t forget, there’s other excess demand for fixed income than just what market expectations are for the Fed. You know, don’t forget if you know, there’s a dearth of treasury supply and an increase in Treasury demand, you know, that stuff can be in excess, you know, we could see term premia go more negative than they are, they’re currently minus around 60 basis points on the tenure that can go to minus 80, or 90 basis points on top of investors just pricing in a lower turnover rate floor. So you can see a pretty meaningful rally in bonds, that does not necessarily require a return to zero reserve zero interest rate policy to get that going.
Adam Taggart 10:53
Okay, great. If you feel comfortable, and it’s fine, if you don’t, but I think my viewers would shoot me if I didn’t ask you to bring that allocation chart back up again, and just explain your rationale for the other tranches you have in there.
Darius Dale 11:06
Yeah, absolutely. So again, this entire process with the exception of the best idea is systematic. The systematic portion comes from the the three month outlook for each of the main asset classes. And then we use, you know, the derivative of the asset class or something like a volatility instrument, you know, gold is the inverse of the dollar signal. And so again, each of these signals, each of these features is contributing to each of these asset classes on every single day, we’re getting an update doesn’t change very often, in terms of the process. And so in terms of how the process works, is again, what goes into the equities bucket. And again, what we’re trying to do is take 100% of our allocations, not a levered portfolio, we take 100% of allocation, we allocate, you know, 10% per position in each, each of the equities bucket 10% per position in the fixed income bucket 10% per position in the macro bucket, again, according to what the highest expected Sharpe ratios for each of these particular regimes. And so what determines whether or not it’s a 10% or not, is, again, the weather model signal. If it’s 7.5%, that’s telling you that the weather model seven is neutral, if it’s a 5% target allocation, it tells you the weather model signal for the asset class is bearish. If it’s a 10% target allocation, that tells you that the weather model signal is green, or it’s bullish. The actual exposure, again, is a function of the volatility, just a momentum signal. I don’t have that in this presentation. But if you if it matches the weather, if it’s half of the weather, the target exposure is telling you that the signal is neutral. If it’s a full target exposure, it tells you that the signal is bullish. If it’s zero, it tells you that the signal is bearish. And so again, this is not me saying Oh, I’d like you know, UK or low beta stocks or, you know, ag or seven to 10 year treasuries, or the dollar medium term volatility of gold. It’s hundreds of decades of data saying these are the highest expected Sharpe ratios in this particular regime. And then the kind of having the bottom up risk management overlay at the VAMS level to give you an indication that what we have so let me go back and answer your question 25, we’re currently at least on all those quantitative signals, at 25% of our max exposure to equities, were at 100% of our max exposure to fixed income, we’re at 29% of what we call our max exposure to macro, that’s, you know, dot things like the dollar, interest rates, commodities, digital assets, and then we’re 100% of our max exposure to our qualitative best idea, that’s me choosing what the exposure is, but again, it’s got to come from this list, I can’t just you know, I want to be long Bitcoin, because, you know, because Bitcoin charts going up. And so the residual of all that, obviously, is our cash position, our cash position is at 43%. Now, I’d actually prefer it to be higher, because we’re basically getting paid to wait and a lot of instruments, but Darius Dale doesn’t make any choices, the system make the choices for me. And so right now, the cast was 43%, I think that, you know, as we go further, in time, we’ll start to get some red light show up and things like the stock market, you know, etc. And so the target exposures for these instruments will actually start to go down. And once we actually get into the, you know, the phase two credit cycle downturn, clearly the technical side of the component, the bottom up, risk management overlay will start to kick in, in terms of drawing these all the way down to zero. So we’ll probably finish the year somewhere around 60 70% of cash, if I had to guess based on that, you know, the likely progression, some of all these different indicators, that effect, you know, kind of shocking the weather model, that that’s where we are today, which is, you know, defensively positioned from a factor selection standpoint, and then further defensively positioned in terms of our allocation to bonds relative to stocks, and our allocation of cash relative to everything else.
Adam Taggart 14:28
All right, that is super fantastic, super valuable. There are so many questions that I’d love to ask around this but we’re just going to have to wait there’s because I will keep you forever. I’m going to wrap things up or as you said and sprays I like to use I’m going to land up start landing the plane here. But I am going to ask you one unfair question. Just because it’s it’s no, it’s unfair to to not give you enough time to expound on it. But because you mentioned it several times. I feel like it would be unfair to not give you a chance to comment on it. So in your your charts there, Bitcoin is an asset that you guys track closely. Presumably, you hold some some ownership of it, you’ve mentioned it as one of the metrics you look at in terms of what the prices giving you 60 seconds to say whatever you want to say about Bitcoin, letting you know that the next time you come on, I’ll give you a fair amount of time to actually, you know, really get into it with me. What’s your Outlook position? Why do you why do you own it? What would you say to the people that are skeptical of it? How can you wrap all that in 60? seconds? I’ll give you two minutes if you want.
Darius Dale 15:39
Oh, yes, I’ll do it in 60 seconds. So we are not currently long Bitcoin in this process, because again, Bitcoin is one of those assets that does not have a high expected Sharpe ratio in deflation, it’s obviously done really well, year to date. But in the context of the deflation regime, we’ve been in really for the past kind of diamonds, it has not, you know, it’s so it’s in certainly we made the call to get out of Bitcoin on December 10, of 2021. So I think it was a pretty solid call. Yes, it was, in the context of this systematic process. One of the things that we didn’t discuss is how do we determine whether or not we are in deflation or whether we’re in you know, Goldilocks, which is where Bitcoin would shut thrive and shine? In fact, Bitcoin is one of the top five highest expected Sharpe ratios in each of the great regimes except deflation. So once the market once the weather model starts to signal that we’re actually getting towards the end of the deflation process. And it does this by incorporating the implied deltas on next 12 month growth and inflation estimates. You know, we don’t we basically say I don’t I don’t know when the bottom of the cycle is, but I know that there’s 1000 People across Wall Street doing the exact same thing that I’m doing, that are trying to forecast, you know, when the bottom of the cycle is when growth is likely to reflect when inflation is likely to reflect. And so we incorporate that information quantitatively into that weather model. And once it starts to diverge from what the actual trends and growth inflation are, like, right now we are in deflation, that means growth and inflation are trending lower. Let’s roll the clock forward a year from now or three quarters from now, it could be the case that the next full month implied Delta on growth is higher, not lower. And that could be the actual multiplied deltas on inflation is lower or higher. Who knows. But what is effectively saying is a year from now will no longer be in deflation will still be in deflation, but the implied deltas will be no longer in inflation. And that’s when this factor selection going back to this portfolio construction process, it’ll start to stop at it’ll it’ll start divesting itself from deflation, rotating that into something like reflation, or Goldilocks which is where it will Bitcoin will thrive and shine and will have a pretty big allocation to Bitcoin in that process. So in my estimation, put a good bit of banana into my head, probably in three quarters, it’ll start to do that, you know, just based on my expectations on the timing of recession,
Adam Taggart 17:45
okay, and bitcoins role in your portfolio is is it just another asset that you just have confidence is gonna go up or down in price? Or is there you know, there’s a lot of we use the word doc, no
Darius Dale 17:58
religion, no religion, okay.
Adam Taggart 17:59
Darius Dale 18:01
It’s a squiggly line on the screen just like all the other squiggly lines on the screen. Alright, how do you guys what makes us wiggly lines go up and go down.
Adam Taggart 18:07
Okay, how do you play it do you actually buy physical coins Are you trading ETFs or some substitute?
Darius Dale 18:13
So I buy FAS so by the way, this portfolio construction process I use this to manage my entire liquid net worth and so my entire my dairies, Dells portfolio looks exactly like this at all times. And has since we started the firm two years ago. So how I play it, I will just buy bitcoin directly through the exchange, but we we will, we will help investors manage that with Beto BI to ETF it’s it’s managed futures and big not managed futures. It’s unmanaged futures in Bitcoin. So it’s not the best expression, if you can just go buy the actual digital asset,
Adam Taggart 18:41
you should do that. Okay, great. All right. Well, look. So many questions, the one I’m most disappointed we don’t have time to get into is your comments about behavior, and one how it can sabotage investors, and then to obviously, you know, best practices that we can, or emotions, I’m sorry, I should have said, but how emotions can sabotage our decision making? And then what best practices behavior wise, or mindsets do you employ to become a better investor going forward? And I’m sure you want to say something about that. Now, you’re welcome to but I want to give you a lot of time to expound on it. So well, let’s save it for part two.
Darius Dale 19:19
Let’s say that this whole whole nother discussion.
Adam Taggart 19:23
Okay, good. I’m glad that you put that much weight in because I think it is super important. So as we do wrap up things here. First off, Darius, I want to say thank you so much. I feel like I gained like 20 IQ points listening to you today. You’re really our last 20 pounds. So that’s a good trade. Fair trade. So for folks that have really enjoyed this conversation, maybe this is the first time they’re getting exposed to your work. Where can they go to learn more about you and follow you in your work?
Darius Dale 19:55
Yeah, absolutely. So what we try to do with 42 macro is take the time Our halls of institutional finances where I cut my teeth prior to starting 42 macro and presented that to everyone, obviously, our client base, you know, we have, you know, high institutional clients, you know, pension funds, hedge funds, etc, that received this information hold I think 42 macro does well, at least certainly, we were probably one of the pioneers in the research base for doing this, which is the same information that the top hedge funds in the world get, Mom and Pop retail investors can get. And we certainly make plenty of educational resources available for them to take advantage of this information and actually come up the curve and gain IQ points alongside alongside our community. So 42 macro.com come definitely check us out. We have sample reports, they’re available, we have a YouTube channel 42 macro, we don’t believe we’re not that active on YouTube. But we also have a Twitter account as well. I actually have 242 macro weather is sort of my external Twitter account, where I engage with the broader community. And then 42 macro aware is my private Twitter account where I engage with exclusively with 42, MCE subscribers. That’s where we’re kind of getting down into the nitty gritty kind of help investors, you know, come up the curve on some of these behavioral and quantitative finance dynamics. It’s more like
Adam Taggart 21:02
a classroom. All right, fantastic. I when we edit this Darius, I will put up those URLs brightly on the screen as you’re watching lives and people know exactly where to go. Also put links in the description down here. Very much. Both respect, admire follow everything you guys do there, your mission there for DQ macro in sort of democratizing macro research giving, reducing the information asymmetry between the Wall Street insiders and regular Mom and Pop. That’s exactly, you know, right. You guys do a lot. Yeah. So thank you just just know that, you know, we’re brothers here in arms. Thank you so much for giving us so much time, in such really just great detail. And everything you’re doing there, you fully open the kimono, and I think everybody here is better for it. So thank you. And we look forward to having you back on the channel. Again, whenever you want to come back on,
Darius Dale 21:53
I very much look forward to a man I want to give you props to because you guys are doing a phenomenal service for the community. I learned a lot listening to your podcast, and I’ve been doing this for a long time. You know, certainly, I just want to say thank you. Because you know, without people like you that information asymmetry, you know, will just stay asymmetric. And I think what you know you and I both very much hear that that passion to kind of close that gap.
Adam Taggart 22:15
Thanks very true. And look without people like you, this channel wouldn’t have experts to come on and put in front of people. So thank you so much for sharing. All right, there is really look forward to having you back on again soon. Good luck in everything you’re
Darius Dale 22:24
doing, buddy. Likewise, brother, I appreciate you.
Adam Taggart 22:27
Thank you, Adam. Well, all right. Well, now’s the time when the program will be bringing the lead partners from new harbor financial, to discuss both their reaction to the interview here with Darius but also what the markets have been up to in the past week. I’m joined this week by John loader up Mike Preston has the week off, John, great to see you. Hello, again, Adam.
Speaker 3 22:46
Great to be with you again. And Mike’s enjoying a little vacation time. So I’m happy to carry the water jugs here for our team really, really enjoyed the talk with Darius I gotta I gotta admit, I hadn’t really been too familiar with his work and that of his firm. And as data junkies ourselves, you know, really, really appreciated his his talk, you know, chock full of data, you could probably spend a week rewinding and sifting through all the data he presented, but very well put together and
Adam Taggart 23:16
and John Sorry to interrupt, but I just want to make sure that both you and our viewers are aware, Darius contacted me after the interview and said, Hey, if you guys want to see the full slide, presentation of slides that he was walking through, he’s willing to make him available. So folks, if you want to download that slide presentation in its entirety, just go to wealthion.com/ 42 macro, and you know, you’ll be able to go through those slides at their leisure, as you saw from the interview. I mean, there’s just a gazillion of them pretty dense. So it’s wonderful that Darius is making it available to all of us Sorry to interrupt, but I
Speaker 3 23:51
wanted to make sure not at all that’s that’s really important, quite generous of him. You know, we here at new harbor, we got to take in a whole bunch of information, we the last thing we want to make sure we want to make sure we guard against or the first thing we want to make sure we guard against is, is ending up in our own echo chamber. So we have a very important job to make sure we can kind of decipher the markets and impacts as relates to our clients. So the more you know, authoritative and data rich perspectives we can take in. We really appreciate that and the fact that folks like Darius and many others make their work, digestible and receivable from from all manner of folks, including folks like ourselves, we really appreciate that.
Adam Taggart 24:36
Okay, well, so, you know, Darius super, just a master of data analysis there. You know, the the Excel models that he was walking us through were works of art. And I say that as the guy who used to build models back in my early career as an investment banking analyst on Wall Street. So he’s basically saying, Look at If we see a recession coming at some point end of the year, somewhere between September and q1 of next year, and he walked through all the reasons, you know, all the different methodologies that were sort of giving that general timeframe. So we talked a bit about the, the risk of collecting nickels in front of the steamroller. And he said, Yeah, he said, you know, we, once once the s&p got, you know, close to 4200, we’ve started to lighten up, right, and he’s got about if I remember correctly, 40 something percent of the portfolio is currently in cash he sees is going to continue to lighten up going into the fall sees maybe getting up to about 60, something percent, he said, you know, he did say if the, if the s&p were to swiftly fall back down to like 3800, then he said, Hey, there might be a chance to get back in and have sort of one last hurrah. But of course, you don’t want to be skating too close to the edge here, the risk return ratio just doesn’t really, you know, justify that. So, you know, he’s sort of saying, look, it’s in less we go to 3800 really quick and the s&p, we’re probably just going to be lightening up until this recession hits, if it arrives in the timeframe that we think that’s that, to me, that sounds somewhat similar to what I think you guys that new harbor had been been, you know, looking at, and your outlook and all that type of stuff. But don’t let me put words in your mouth.
Speaker 3 26:27
Yeah, it’s really remarkable how similar his current his models, I should say, he made a very good point to, to re emphasize that their positioning is all Model Driven, given their multi factor model, not just kind of winging it, so to speak. But, you know, our positioning is very similar. We have about 45% of our clients in cash like thing, short term treasury bills and whatnot, a little piece of that going out about a year.
Adam Taggart 26:56
And sorry, not 45% of your clients in cash, but your clients in about 45% Cash allocation?
Speaker 3 27:01
Yes, thank you for catching that, that twist of the tongue there. Um, yeah, 40 45% of our clients assets are about about about 45%, in short term cash T bills, things like that. All very safe. You know, we have very little in FDIC insured bank accounts, things like that. And we do have, so Darius did emphasize that, you know, relative to their maximum targets for different asset classes, he mentioned that they’re 100% on their their bond, maximum target, but only 25% of their stock maximum targets. So I took that to mean if if someone is, you know, by policy, you know, could go to 100%, or 100%, in stocks, they should be no more than 25%. Or if, say a 6040, investors should be no more than about 15%. In stocks. That’s very similar to what our advice is, and what we’re doing for our clients. We have a very modest stock allocation, about 15 to 20%, for most clients, including some sectors that we think are very much undervalued relative to the broad market. But we have, you know, again, about 45%, in cash T bills, things like that. We do have about 15% of client portfolio in longer duration, longer majority treasuries. So we see that as an opportunity to stick near term trade, much like I think Darius did, so. Yeah. So all to kind of come full circle, his current positioning is very similar to, to what our flagship model positioning is for clients.
Adam Taggart 28:37
Yeah. And I noted there, too, he had the maximum allotment his model allowed in, in a gold fund there. Yep. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 28:47
And, you know, I have folks that have seen us here know that we’re, we’re very constructive on gold, and especially gold miners here as a value based play and an unlevered way to play what we think are likely to be firm and likely increasing gold prices. So you know, a lot of commonalities there. But it’s refreshing to, to know that, you know, people get to similar endpoints that we do, coming at it from a lot of different data driven patterns.
Adam Taggart 29:14
Yeah, and that’s exactly why I mentioned that there, which is just like Darius, you know, he uses various different forms of analyses to come up with that range, a set of a recession happening somewhere between September and somewhere in q1. You know, he basically said, Look, I’m going to crunch the numbers four or five different ways, and yet, they’re all kind of telling me that same range, so that gives me confidence that the probability of that happening is greater. I also really like it when I see different experts who are using different methodologies come to similar conclusions. And in the interview, we talked about how his work and Michael Kantrowitz his work, you know, really dovetail together nicely. And then thirdly, I like it when the people that I have on this program who all have their own idiosyncratic ways in which they look at the market and which data they prioritize and how they analyze and all that when they’re coming to similar conclusions. Again, it sort of gives me a little bit more of a sense of confidence that okay, the probability of their allocations is probably a wise one, if this many smart people using all these different types of approaches are still coming to a similar conclusion on where money should be. And from what I see from my perch of just talking to a whole bunch of people here it is they they’re holding more liquidity, right now, more short term liquidity than they normally do. Bonds are very quite favorable on bonds, particularly sovereign bonds. Right now in this environment. They are underweight equities, for the most part, not necessarily out of equities, but they’re underweight equities. And the equities they hold tend to be more of the you know, you know, essentials, blue chips, you know, high dividend players, you know, not not not the cashflow, negative, super speculative, you know, assets that did so well in the previous decade for more or less. And a lot of them hold gold and a lot of these are not necessarily you know you know, they’re not doing it because of the whole gold versus fiat currency. You know, the the philosophical side of things. A lot of them’s are just doing it because they just think it’s an asset that looks like it’s got a really good set of prospects over the next year or two, not unlike how Darius was saying they have approached Bitcoin in the past where he said, like, I’m, I haven’t owned, I don’t own it or sell it based upon the whole replacement of fiat currency or the way it’s going to revolutionize the world or whatever. I just look at it as an asset class, or do I do I have high confidence whether it’s gonna go up or if it’s gonna go down? So that kind of preponderance of of high cash, favorable bonds, underweight equities, and of what you hold the on the conservative side, and then hold some gold? It’s not a universal, but that is by far the most common allocation. I’m hearing from a lot of the different experts that I’m talking to recently.
Speaker 3 32:11
Yeah, I agree with you, Adam. It seems to be a lot of themes that come together and a confluence there from a lot of different ways. You know, one of the quotes that Darius made in there I loved you said, Being bearish is not the same as being scared. And that’s, that’s so true, because it speaks to the psychological component of how different players position their assets. He spoke of, you know, retail investors still being very heavily invested in the stock market, very light in cash allocations as compared, for example, they’re nearly as invested in the stock market as they were at the very tippy top of the tech bubble. Contrast that with hedge funds are at near record shorts in the stock market. Right. So there’s definitely a you know, kind of a differing of side taking here by different types of investors. And, you know, I like to dovetail from there into his his viewpoints that he thinks the Fed is not likely to be very quick to react to recessionary forces. And he thinks the pivot is not imminent, and will, if there is a pivot will likely come much later than the market probably thinks. And I think that might be contributing to a complacency amongst investors where they’re not scared, because they still think that knight in shining armor is just a couple of trots away from saving everything. And he points to you, he points to the fact that inflation is a lagging data point in recessions. In fact, John Hussman came out with a fabulous monthly piece he always does. This month. One of the key takeaways, and it just came out a few days ago, was that there’s very little correlation with inflation in recessions. In fact, they oftentimes, in the first year, actually, inflation goes up a little bit in the first year on average, and that inflation almost is really there’s no real correlation between inflation and drops, and inflation and recessionary periods. which I found fascinating, because it seems on the surface, that it’s a no brainer, that’s counterintuitive. Yeah. And the same thing with with what Darius talked about, and that speaks, I think, to a Federal Reserve that is likely to be slow to react because they’re still going to have this inflation Nemesis to contend with. Not to mention the still very strong job, job market, and we’re all watching for signs of weakening there because that is a pretty reliable, given the hope framework that Michael Cantor was talked about sign of a peaking market. Right. So a lot of really interesting takeaways from that that talk.
Adam Taggart 34:49
Yeah, another another interesting point by Darius was saying that that he’s like a market it doesn’t price out as far into the future as most people give it credit for. He says it’s it’s, you know, Have one two months max, which really kind of shocked me that he thought he believes that it’s that narrow. I mean, it’s, it’s kind of like that old adage of the guy that jumps off the roof of the building. And when he’s halfway down, somebody shouts at him how you doing? He says, so far, so good, right? Where the market may just be to Dennis’s point, just looking out at the next month or two and still saying, Alright, everything still looks pretty good and ignoring the preponderance of the macro data that is suggesting that that, you know, economically, this is not going to resolve Well, you know, in the relatively near to mid future. I also found it interesting, too, that how he said, if you listen to what the Fed is saying about unemployment, which was projecting you three, the three unemployment measure at 4.5% by the end of this year, that that implicitly means that the Fed is projecting a rough recession, because we haven’t seen you three at levels at that height, except when we’ve been in recession in the past.
Speaker 3 36:10
Yeah, exactly. He points out and the Fed has been trying hard to point out that their base case is is at least a mild recession. So you know, this thought that the Fed is going to come to the rescue of the first sign of you know, they’re telling us that we aren’t we’re expecting a recession. In fact, maybe we were trying really hard to create one. So don’t expect for us to come trotting. And And usually, when they come trotting, is past episodes will test housing bubble tech bubble, it’s because something is really starting to break and markets are in freefall. And by that point, that psychology bearish has turned into scared nervous, scared nervous and and, you know, in both those prior instances, a drop in interest rates by the Fed did did little to stem the selling it until exhausted itself until people getting scared, exhausted themselves and the marginal buyer then started to come in at much lower levels. So you’re really, really, it’s not a surprise that the market doesn’t look but a few months in the future. Case in point, I just saw a, an opinion piece and bloomer, I think it was and there was some data in there showing that, you know, on average, in recessions, earnings per share dropped, I think 31%. Yet the market, even though earnings estimates are starting to come down, they’re nowhere near pricing in that that level of of earnings drops. So we still have a market that is is absolutely pricing in, you know, a very Goldilocks scenario here, even though a lot of the data and warnings are that it’s not going to be quite that way.
Adam Taggart 37:50
Yeah. And what’s so interesting is, is you talked about the Fed kind of telling us, you know, prepare for a recession, of course, Powell for a long time now has been using words like pain, right? Like expect pain, this is going to a lot of people have said okay, that’s code word for recession. He also since last summer, you know, has basically said, I gotta go after demand, right? I can’t do much about the supply side of inflation. So I’m gonna go after demand. He many times cited the jobs market and the fact that there were a bunch more job openings than there were job applicants, and basically said, I’m kind of going to be declaring war on jobs. And yes, I’ve got this dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. But if I gotta get inflation under control, I’m going to prioritize price stability over employment. So basically expect that we’re going to be destroying some jobs here. Right. And so what’s so interesting is today, so many people point to the strength of the jobs market, the reported strength of the jobs market as this bulwark against recession. Right. And first off, you have Kantrowitz, who says, look, there’s a progression we go through the hope progression and the E and the hope employment is the last phase right. So the fact that that domino hasn’t fallen doesn’t mean it’s, it’s not going to it just always follows last and if we look at the previous dominoes, they’re all toppling over. So history shows that this last Domino, the E, the employment is going to fall. Right. So we’ve got that but we also have the Fed out there saying, Yeah, you know, like, I expect unemployment to be at up to be at 4.5 by the end of the year, like we are trying to topple that. So it’s so funny that the market is justifying the fact that it hasn’t toppled yet as you know, some, you know, statement that okay, well, it’s not going to fall because it hasn’t done yet. Right. And so, the market seems to be putting it’s, it’s hope it’s it’s sanguine, you know, euphoria, or whatever you want to call it. That, you know, hey, it, sun’s out. Today, so I guess that means only sunny skies ahead, right? It’s only looking at that short window that Darius is talking about. What’s What’s crazy is that more people aren’t looking past that. And I think that the people who watch this channel are amongst the curious and critically minded few who can actually do that relatively simple math and say, okay, yeah, you know, who knows, yeah, maybe the market will continue to rise for the next month or two, anything’s possible. And it’s, it’s got momentum for the most part. Sure, that could happen. But that that’s not a prescription for eternal, you know, sunny skies on the market. And so those of us that are watching, I think this is one of those instances where, you know, you can’t always see what the market isn’t seeing. But this may be one of those opportunities, where we are seeing pretty clearly what the markets just refusing to see at this point in time. And once it does, obviously, there’s going to have to be a price correction. And so if you can position yourself today in advance that correction, you’ll be much better off.
Speaker 3 41:00
Yeah, one thing I wanted to call out. Darius talked about, in recessionary periods. The median kind of decline in the stock market, I think he said was about 27 28% 20. Something percent. Yeah, right. And my only kind of nitpicking on that is I think it’s really important to understand that averages and medians kind of similar way, a lot of really important context. One of the most important drivers of peak trough declines are valuations, where stock valuations are going into a recessionary period. And we here have like, so for example, the recession that was in the early 90s, stock, stocks were not nearly as overvalued as they are now, I mean, not even close, right. And if you look at periods, while there’s only been in, we can talk a lot of different ways to value stocks, but some of the most unreliable ones are the ones that are gonna get tossed about every day on CNBC and other other channels, you know, the forward P e is based on analysts estimates, very uncorrelated with with actual subsequent returns, there’s much better there are many, much better metrics. And you look at those and we’re at very, very lofty levels that rival right where we were in the peak of the tech bubble, even back in 1929. And, you know, to so to to assume a greater than median peak to trough decline in the stock markets, if we do see a recession take hold, especially if it’s a nastier one than people are hoping for, I think it’s really reasonable to expect a much larger 3040 50% is, we think, easy easily to imagine, given where valuations are, and the confluence of some of these economic factors that we’re contending with not not least of which is the, you know, this phase two credit cycle that that Darius talks about as a result of unwinding of more than a decade of, of just really crazy, easy money, money policies.
Adam Taggart 43:03
All right. Well, well said. And I guess that’s sort of my underlying point here, which is like we don’t, nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen. Right? Nobody has a crystal ball. Darius gave us his best view, but he could. Different events could play out in the future. Right. But we have, as I said, we certainly have a preponderance of, of data evidence projections from the many guests that have been on this channel, who are, you know, kind of beginning to narrow the bead and to say, okay, look, the recession, it does look like we’re gonna have a recession, it does look like it’s going to be a hard landing. We now have kind of a timing element from Darius that’s been out there. We also have Kantrowitz, which he is saying, I don’t know when the recession is going to hit. But I’m, I’m confident is going to happen. About a quarter after that last E domino topples, right. So we’re all going to be watching that you will closely. But we have a sense a general sense right now that okay, it’s probably not going to arrive in the next month or two. But it very well could arrive in a quarter or two, right? To your point, if it does happen, you know, Kantrowitz has a lot of data to suggest why it’s going to be a hard landing versus a soft landing, Darius has his average and you’re saying, given current levels of valuation, it’s probably better to take the over on that. So these are all things that a rational person can start saying, okay, look, I should start positioning my portfolio in a way that I’ll feel comfortable how it will perform if indeed, things happen at the scale and the timeline that this data is suggesting. Right? Not saying it is absolutely going to happen that way, but the probabilities are high enough that you should be positioning so that if it does happen, you’re going to be okay. Right. And then of course, you know, if you if you get a different theory on what may happen, great, you can allocate part of your portfolio to take advantage of that as well. But it seems that the probabilities are getting to the point here where we have enough assurance that you should at least not discount, you know, this general framework that we’ve just been talking about. You’re nodding as I’m saying this, John, look, feel free to say anything in closure on that. But I do want to get on to a couple developments of the week. One being the continued weakness at first republic Bank, which is kind of bringing some of these banking stability concerns back to the forefront. And then I want to ask you your opinion about what’s going on with with short dated T bills to
Speaker 3 45:23
Yep, first republic is is very much on the headline news, and it’s certainly keeping alive, the understandable nervousness about the banking sector, and you know, what the what’s been embedded within, especially regional banks that perhaps have a different connotation than some of the big, too big to fail banks that will be saved that at all costs, but yeah, first republic, they had earnings release, I think it was a couple of nights ago, losing track my days here, but in that earnings release, in the meeting, they talked about their deposit, the decline is I think it was something like, maybe I’m getting wrong here, I think it was a 47% decline in deposits, you know, basically deposits fled the bank. And that includes, I believe, the injection of $30 billion of essentially emergency deposits by other other banks, JP Morgan, and some of the other banks out there to kind of do a do a friend to favorite kind of thing in the banking industry. So that really spooked the market, there was some some really, some things in the in the, in the release that really spooked the market, not least of which were the deposit declines, the stock was down here, we are recording this on Wednesday, the 26th, stock was down 50% and change yesterday, down another almost 20% as we speak right now. And it looks like there’s some brokering going on to try and broker a private rescue from from some other banks. Basically, the proposal, as I understand it would be that these other banks would be asked to, to purchase some assets and loans from the books of first republic at a somewhat higher than current market price, obviously, at a loss for those purchasing banks. But the notion would be that that that remedy would likely be far less costly to the banking sector, if first republic failed and had to be bailed out by FDIC and surcharges and fees that the banking sector would have to pay into the FDIC insurance funds. So it’s a really, you know, eye popping kind of, you know, chain of developments here, and certainly, I think, is not doing any, any helpful things to ease broader, broader concerns about black swans in the stability of things. So we’ll watch that very closely. And, you know, we think there’s probably much more to play out here in the banking sector crises, we don’t think it’s, you know, a couple banks, you know, getting shut down, and it’s over and done with it, because it speaks to a much bigger structural thing, you know, basically, the low interest rates over the last decade, has now caused many of these banks to have underwater assets. And those are being met in a crash course with with liquidity and redemption requests on the part of depositors. And, and those things are not mismatching properly. And that’s creating a very pronounced liquidity, liquidity crunch for these banks.
Adam Taggart 48:28
Yeah. Thanks for that summary. And, you know, I live out in the Bay Area, and, you know, rewind the tape a couple of months before this happened. Silicon Valley Bank and first republic bank were two extremely highly regarded banks out here. These were banks where, you know, obviously, a lot of companies did their banking but but a lot of the wealthy and affluent, these were the the high end safe bank. So it really is competence shaking, that banks like this are going under and of course, we’ve learned that Silicon Valley Bank, had some unique vulnerabilities and really bad risk management processes and whatnot. I know less about the internal workings of first republic, but obviously the bank run right on deposits getting hoovered out, has not ended even with the rescue efforts that had been done to date there. So to your underlying point, John, it this this indicates that that confidence is continuing to you know, shockwaves of confidence are continuing to reverberate here. I don’t think anyone’s saying that the US banking system, you know, is going to collapse and maybe the way that people were fearing a little bit after Silicon Valley Bank when when Credit Suisse went down, we didn’t really know what was going on. But the point is, is that this is going to make people more conservative, not less or banks more conservative, not less going forward. And we’ve talked about in Jerome Powell has talked about how banks had been tightening lending, you know, all through last year. But But now after the banking system concerns, they’ve tightening their lending standards even further. And in pals word he said that substitutes as additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. It’s one that we can’t easily quantify. But it’s something that is going to be continuing to constrict growth. So as the economy slows here, as we’re as we’re having these concerns about tipping into recession, the tighten the additional tightening of lending standards in the banking system, because of these concerns about contagion and whatnot, I think only increase the odds that a recession deed will happen. Yeah, you know, just
Speaker 3 50:41
speaking about that, a lot of news being made about the rapid decline year over year over year in into money supply. You know, I think on one of the steepest declines and record, and there’s, there’s some debate about how important that is how emblematic it might be of, of, you know, a slowdown, impending slowdown, you know, a lot of cross currents between quantitative tightening at the same time that you know, this is happening, but it is pretty, pretty dramatic. So, it does speak to, you know, kind of a tightening of, of monetary conditions for whatever reason, not the least of which some of the stealth bikes that some of the banking credit standards being tightened are causing.
Adam Taggart 51:26
Yeah, in sorry, jumper just on that point, Steve Hankey, who we interviewed on this program a little less than two weeks ago, he pulled out Milton Friedman’s quantity theory of money. And he said, Hey, just based on that alone, you know, the contraction in the m two, which we haven’t seen for over 60 years, he said that just mathematically mandates lower prices ahead is that folks, it’s just math.
Speaker 3 51:48
Yep. And a lot of these things take time to play out the pig in the Python, which you in many of your guests have talked about, they take time to work through the system. And it’s a complicated system that doesn’t just overnight, kind of equilibrate, it takes some time. So you know, all these things are stacking up. The other kind of thing that’s really been making some some real headlines is, is the some of the dynamics going on in the treasury bill market, there’s a couple things going on, you know, the debt ceiling, X date, as it’s called, you know, the date where we theoretically will run out of the the reserve fund, that’s funding the operations of our government. Many think that because of a slower tax receipt season for the Treasury that maybe that X date is looking like early June, I’m not smart enough to venture a guess as to what the right date is. But the bottom line is, if you look at essentially one month treasury bills going out to the end of May ish kind of timeframe, the yields on those have dropped rather remarkably. As compared to, for example, the three month treasury bill out to July August kind of timeframe. Such that the the yield differentials the one month is got as low as I think 1.25% lower than the three, three month t bill, maybe even a little I think he got almost a one and a half percent at one point. But that’s really what that’s speaking to, as I flooding into the one month bill especially. So there’s some speculation that that’s important, because people trying to get ahead of this X date. But I’ve heard a very credible, you know, kind of speculation argument that this is more emblematic of a sudden flight to the best collateral and most liquid crap collateral one can get. And that’s the one month bill here, maybe because of some of the banking system stresses that are still on us. But whatever the reason, it could be both those factors. It’s a very, very notable the last time we’ve seen a departure like this, I think was in the depths of of things unfolding in the housing crisis. So these are the things that, you know, kind of come out from the side, the periphery that suddenly can start to make things complicated that we are keeping a close eye on.
Adam Taggart 54:06
Okay, different causal reasons. But would you say that this imbalance, this rare imbalance between, you know, the one year right through one month, right, pretty month rate? Is it when I first saw this last week, I mean, the difference between the one month rate and the two month rate was was just about as extreme as it was between the one month in the three months, you know, that time differential is almost pretty material. And yet the rate differential was huge. Is that a sign of you know, all of a sudden a sudden surge in uncertainty in you know, instability or just nervousness the way that, let’s say, the reverse REPO rate, if it just starts spiking overnight, we’re like, we don’t know exactly what’s going on. But it’s probably because somebody’s nervous. Yeah, that’s
Speaker 3 54:59
it. That’s one of the confounding things. Because, you know, if you look at comparable maturities for the reverse repo and that kind of thing, there isn’t that decline in rates. So, you know, I think the simple thing is why would say money market fund go pile into the one month t bills at these rates when they can just essentially play in the Revert reverse repo market at a much better rate, simply by pledging as collateral T bills and that kind of thing. So, the plumbing, there’s some some peculiarities that are going on here that speaks to not a concern about getting the best rate, but getting the best collateral. You know, for whatever reason to back other positions, if there’s, you know, margin calls, or whatever, but, you know, really, really speaks to a fear factor, I think more than a, let’s see if we get the best, best, best and highest yield on the short term funds.
Adam Taggart 55:48
Yeah, but more on the fear side than on the greed side. Yes. All right, well, look, gotta begin to wrap things up here only because Darius was so generous, we got to go so long with him. So real quick, let me just reiterate a couple of free resources here. One, folks, if you want to get the full slide presentation of all of Darius, his charts there, again, just go to wealthion.com/ 42 macro, as Darius and I talked about, and and as John and I have been talking about here, you know, it’s a, it is a difficult time to be a regular investor here, especially if you’ve got a real life and, you know, a job and a family to focus on and whatnot and trying to figure out okay, you know, what are the odds of a coming recession? And will that be commensurate with some sort of market correction? And how much? And when’s it going to start? And, you know, do I want to try to still play on the long side in the months before? Or do I not want to put myself at risk of getting squashed by that steamroller if I’m just going after the nickels and all that stuff. So that’s why we highly recommend that you work under the guidance of a professional financial advisor who can it first created, you know, a plan for you based upon your particular life needs and goals and risk tolerance and all that stuff, but then can be executing it for you with you by their side, but but really being the one to watch what’s going on? Watch the developments change the plan, if indeed, it needs to be changed by unfolding events on the ground. So if you’ve got a good one who’s doing that for you, great. Stick with them. If you don’t, though, or if you’d like a second opinion from one who does maybe even John, and Mike and their team at new harbor financial, just go to wealthion.com, fill out the short form there and schedule a free consultation with these guys. It doesn’t cost you anything, no commitment to work with them. Just to public that service, they offer to help people position more prudently in advance of what might likely be ahead as Darius was projecting. John, I’ll let you have the last word here. As we we had we head off and you know, look forward to having you back on again next week to let us know what the markets have done since this this video.
Speaker 3 57:54
Yeah, well, our business is really about our clients and the people. You know, we love markets, we love data. We love dissecting and analyzing and translating, sometimes to confounding, but, but it’s really, because of the people we serve. And our clients mean the world to us. We welcome their questions at any time, of course, and the opportunity to speak with many fine people that reach out to us through Wealthion is in its own very real way, a very fulfilling thing we get to do for our jobs. And some of those conversations are short and sweet. And hopefully, we can impart a little bit of value if nothing else, but you know, we were very grateful to have those conversations.
Adam Taggart 58:34
Alright, great. And I’m just I’m just curious, John, you know, the markets right now are not super worried. Now. They’re off their their highs from a few weeks ago. You know, maybe they’re beginning to question. You know, current valuations, maybe not. But I’m curious, what do you what do you generally sensing from most of the people that you’re in contact with today, whether they’re existing clients, or people that are just calling up for this free consultations or whatnot, and what sort of what sort of the mood that you’re assessing right now, in today’s investor,
Speaker 3 59:08
there definitely has been an uptick and especially in new prospective clients that have reached out to us an uptick in and, you know, use that quote that Darius said, you know, bearishness doesn’t always mean that people are scared starting to feel a little bit more of that scared element entered the equation because of some of the banking stuff I mean, that really hits home when people see banks starting to you know, these were supposed to be very stable, very boring started, you know, I think that the echoes of goat you know, crises pass come to speak in their ears and you know, definitely have seen a pickup in that that scared sentiment and not panic by any stretch because we already saw that many people are still very, very heavily invested, but so people are realizing that, you know, hey, They’re just spidey senses kind of given, given this feeling that I should be perhaps a little bit more open eyed about what’s going on. And sometimes having a conversation with a professional can can help to illuminate some of the data reasons for for, you know, trusting your gut in that regard.
Adam Taggart 1:00:16
Yeah, and, you know, we’ve talked many times in this program, that the anxiety lives in that gap where your actions aren’t aligned with your beliefs. Right. And I guess I’ll just say to folks, if you’re feeling a bit anxious about kind of your financial situation, that might be a sign that you have concerns, but you’ve not yet taken the action in your portfolio to address them. And if that resonates with you at all, then yeah, highly recommend that you spend the time you know, saying, Well, alright, what steps should I take that are gonna let me sleep better at night, especially if you’ve got some of the concerns, same concerns that Darius has, which are, you know, what you don’t want to be doing is getting caught late in the game by developments and then scrambling when the rest of the world is scrambling at the same time, right? When When markets are potentially you know, in freefall, and you know, all sorts of other things are going on. What you want to do is you want to take prudent positions beforehand, so that if that’s, you know, stuff starts happening, a you’re hopefully as insulated against them as possible, but be you’re not in a position where emotions are driving the decision making because as we’ve talked about in this program so many times, you know, it’s often our emotions that are our worst, our own emotions that are our worst enemies in terms of our investing success. All right, well, let’s leave it at that, folks. If you’ve enjoyed this interview with Darius, I’d like to see him come back on the program as well as other great guests like him, please support this channel by hitting the like button, and then clicking on the red subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. John, thanks so much for joining me today solo. You did a great job. And whatever the markets do from here, we’ll have you back on next week with Mike, making it understandable for our viewers, then, thanks so much for the time, John, everybody else. Thanks so much for watching.
Speaker 3 1:02:08
Yeah, thank you, Adam. Great to be with you again. We’ll see you next week.
Adam Taggart 1:02:13
If you’d like to schedule a consultation with one of the financial advisors at new harbor financial simply go to wealthion.com. These consultations are completely free, and there are no strings attached. The good folks at new harbor was simply answer any questions you have about your investment goals or your portfolio and give you their best advice given their latest market outlook. They’re willing to do this because they care about protecting people’s wealth. And because Wealthion has connected them with so many thoughtful investors just like you over the past decade. We started doing this because so many people have approached us in frustration looking for a solution because they’re feeling out of alignment, or downright ridiculed by the standard financial advisors who have been managing their money. You know, the type, the kind that just pushes all of your money into the market. scoffs at the idea of owning gold. And when you bring up concerns about the market sky high valuations, they say don’t worry, the market will always take care of you. For many of the reasons discussed in today’s video, we think this is one of the most challenging and treacherous times in history for investing. We strongly believe that today’s investors are best served working in partnership with a conscientious professional financial advisor who understands the risks in play. Now we’re agnostic, which professional advisor you work with, as long as they’re good. If you’re already working with one, that’s fantastic, stick with them. But if you don’t, or are having trouble finding one you respect or trust, then consider talking to John and Mike and the team at new harbor. Now for those about to ask yes, there’s a business relationship between Wealthion and new harbor, which we’ve put in place to make sure everything is handled according to SEC regulations. All the details on this are clearly provided on the wealthion.com website. Also, it’s important to note that new harbor is able to work with US citizens, green card holders, and those with existing assets in the USA, but for regulatory reasons they aren’t able to take on non US clients. All right, with all that said, if you’d like some insight and guidance on how to protect your wealth during this unprecedented time in the markets, go to wealthion.com to schedule your free consultation with the good folks at you harbor. Thanks for watching.
Transcribed by https://otter.ai