High net worth wealth advisor Ted Oakley returns for Part 2 of our interview with him. He explains why a market correction is highly likely as valuations just don’t support today’s elevated prices.
Transcript
Ted Oakley 0:00
We’ll soon start discounting what’s going to be happening in the third and fourth quarter first quarter 24. So we don’t see that lasting. I mean, I’ll put it this way if we’re wrong. And you have some sort of bull market start because of some extreme is some some some item that happens that we didn’t see that really causes things to get very bullish. I don’t know what that would be. So I, right now that doesn’t exist for us. And until we see some lower prices, and we screen a lot of stocks, we buy individual stocks, and we screen 200 250 stocks, and I will tell you, they’re just not they’re not from a value standpoint. So that’s where I think you are. So I think the market has to have some more weakness, whether it comes in the summer or this fall or winter. I don’t know. But I think it’s coming eventually.
Adam Taggart 0:57
Welcome to Wealthion Wealthion founder Adam Taggart. Thanks for joining us for part two of our interview with money manager Ted Oakley, if you haven’t yet watched part one of our discussion with Ted, in which he explains why he thinks the current narrative that we’ve dodged a recession, and we’re entering a new bull market is dangerously misguided, head over to our channel at youtube.com/wealthion. And watch it there. First, it sets the context for the investment themes we discussed in this video. All right, well, let’s get started watching part two of our interview with Ted Oakley, as you look to the second half of this year, right? We’ve talked a lot about the many reasons why the economy has challenges ahead of it. Market. Not really worrying about those right now. All it really cares about is AI and how much money it can throw after anything that mentions AI. What what do you see the rest of this year? You know, might we continue to be able to ride this this optimism? Or may some of these reckoning events that you and I have been talking about forced the market to have to reprice itself?
Ted Oakley 2:04
Well, you know, I see a lot of strategies come on in the networks and talk about you know, the fact that things are great, consumers great and business will be up and, and we’re using a higher number for the markets, I really don’t know where they come from on them. Because you can’t start a bull market. Let’s just say that we’re even wrong, and you have to enter in 10 bucks or so on the s&p earnings at a 4350 4370. s&p, we’re still in 21 times plus, well, that’s not where you start a bull market from this idea about a new bull market does not hit with us, whereas your multiples are not there. Let’s say they come in at 190 or 195. Well, that means you’re probably going to have to have a 3000 s&p Potentially you know something, but for the only thing that saves that is if Okay, and FDA can muddle through here and produce the same amount earnings, they have the last two quarters, which is doubtful in our opinion. So from us, we just think that this rally we’ve just had a NASDAQ is probably over are very, very close to being over. And that people that got caught up in that probably will pay the price just like they did in 2000 302. I saw people just continually try to catch the boat, they caught the bottom and they never did until everybody was throwing up. And then and then the same ways to degree in the s&p and they don’t you know, they sort of hand in hand. But I think people will look back on that and say guy said that, you know, that caught me again. And they’ll have to realize that more than likely will soon start discounting what’s going to be happening in the third and fourth quarter first quarter 24. So we don’t see that lasting. I mean, I’ll put it this way if we’re wrong. And you have some sort of bull market start because of some extreme some some some item that happens that we didn’t see that really causes things to get very bullish. I don’t know what that would be. So right now that doesn’t exist for us. And until we see some lower prices and we screen a lot of stocks, we buy individual stocks, and we screen 200 250 stocks and I will tell you, they’re just not they’re not from a value standpoint. So that’s where I think you are so I think the market has to have some more weakness whether it comes in the summer or this fall or winter. I don’t know but I think it’s coming eventually.
Adam Taggart 4:38
Okay, and something that’s different this time around right is in the past decade plus when you wanted to sit in you know we when you weren’t that comfortable with stocks you was Tina, you really didn’t have that many other alternatives. If you wanted to get some sort of real return on your money, right? So pokes were really, almost like a knife point to their back forced out along the risk curve, even if they didn’t feel good about it. But now we have bonds paying much better yields than they did. In fact, I believe you’ve got a chart here of comparative yields, you know, basically showing that they’re on par, or you know that Treasuries are on par or better now than corporate equity yields, right. So if you can essentially get the same yield and not take on any equity risk right now, I mean, you’ve got a really good opportunity to sort of sit and safety and see how this all plays out. So how is that changing the way that you’re managing money this time around?
Ted Oakley 5:42
Well, I will say that people in general don’t mind and we own a lot of treasuries. And people don’t mind owning them, because most of our Treasuries are or five or, or more and close to that. But I remind people of this, if you have a 21, multiple on the s&p 500, that means the earnings yield, which is on that graph, the earnings yield is less than five. And then I’m getting five and a quarter or 540. But between the three months, six months Treasury or a floating rate, and the court people are keep buying corporates, I don’t quite understand because there’s not enough spread to take that risk when you could buy the Treasury. So those those have all come together now. So okay, you take your choice, do you want to buy a stock with a 5% earnings yield? Do you want to buy a corporate with that? Or do you want to buy treasury? Well, you gotta go with a treasurer. And, you know, a lot of Wall Street, they don’t get paid to buy treasury. So they don’t like to get on that. But that’s, that’s where I think we are right now. There. There. There’s a term I heard a fellow the other day, say Adam called Terra, which was, there are reasonable alternatives. And so Tina goes to Tara, I think.
Adam Taggart 6:55
Yeah, it’s so interesting, you know, we’re now finally sort of seeing this dawning of investors that there are really prudent plays that that aren’t that difficult to make, where you can, you know, get a similar a superior return, with much less risk. I mean, I look at just the banking sector right now. And people the light bulb has finally gone on in people’s heads that like, oh, I don’t have to accept, you know, a savings rate from my bank of 0.03%. I can just literally take a couple of minutes and put that those same funds into a money market account or buy some treasuries with them, and boom, I’m over 5%. Right?
Ted Oakley 7:39
Well, I think to give you some examples, but a lot of people, you know, let’s say of $2 million, and you were getting one of these money market funds, four or five basis points. So maybe you’re getting 10 grand a year. And then a person shows up and goes into a floating rate or a one year treasury. And now on to 2 million, they’re getting over 100 grand a year. And so they stop and look at that now, they’re like, You know what? That makes sense. I want some more of that. Because now all of a sudden, they’re actually making some money on the cash. And so you can’t overlook that I think people over looking at and they’re diving into things that are iffy. And why would you do that if you’ve got a pretty solid five and a quarter or so right now? Why don’t you wait on that a little bit to see what happens?
Adam Taggart 8:31
Does that make the equity market more vulnerable this time around than in previous years? Where if it starts getting a little bit shaky, are people more likely to bolt to the safety of these assets we’re talking about, because it’s just so comparatively attractive now versus what it was like, three years ago, five years ago? You know,
Ted Oakley 8:53
you would think so, but because of Wall Street, and all these financial planners out there, and all this stuff, they keep driving people in the equity, because that’s sort of all they know. And one of the things I’m finding about the whole group of people who’ve only been around since Oh, nine, they don’t have a sense of when to technically make a change, make make some sort of change in the portfolio. So everything’s still like it is so new money comes in, they still buy the same amount of stocks, or they really buy primarily ETFs and indexes, the same amount of bond funds, etc. And that’s all they do. Well, that money keeps going in. And I think, until you get a bigger break, that that’s that’s not going to change. But when you get a big break, then the customer tells the the investment person I’ve had it I don’t lose any more money here. So that’s when it shifts and we’re not we’re not there yet, but I think we’ll get there. All right.
Adam Taggart 9:53
So you know, on that point, like, well, two questions when I asked this specific one for First, I’m going to ask you How is Oxbow allocating its portfolio right now in this environment. But in regards to bonds, bonds are providing a really safe attractive yield right now, especially the treasuries from a risk return basis are amazing compared to how they’ve been for the past 15 plus years. There is a school of thinking, you said, You think we’re probably in the last innings of the central bank rate hike, policy movement, you know, eventually, at some point, they’re gonna start bringing rates down again, either because inflation is tamed, and you know, they’re gonna start unwinding what they’ve done, or because they break something, and they’ve got to come in and try to rescue the system. So there are people that are looking at that and saying, Okay, now that we’re nearing the end of the ballgame, I’m going to start going out the risk curve on some of these debt instruments, because when interest rates start coming down, again, these bonds are going to rise in price, and that that effect is felt most the furthest out, you are on the duration curve. curious your thoughts on that argument? And, you know, is now the time to start moving out the duration curve or not yet?
Ted Oakley 11:13
Well, it’s interesting question, because if you look at our conservative fixed income accounts, we do have somewhere between 10 and say, 12, or 14%. That is longer term, I’m talking about 20 to 30. A year and part of that’s very, very high grade municipal bonds, too. But we have that much. Why don’t we have that month, because we’re not that good. We can stay, we can stay all short, knowing that there’s going to be a change at some point in time. But I would recommend everybody to get a yield curve of a year ago and the old curve now they’ll notice one thing, they’ll notice the short rate, zero to 18 months goes up huge five points go out and look at the 30 year rate. It’s not up very much, not at not up much at all. Actually, it’s up, but he’s not up much. Which tells me that the serious players that by the long paper are basically saying, you know, I don’t think inflation goes over three, three and three quarters and 4%. I think that’s where we are in the marketplace right now.
Adam Taggart 12:13
Okay, all right. So what I what I don’t hear you saying is, is now’s the time to aggressively move yourself out the risk curve, and that we might not have as big of an effect anyways, in general, as maybe some folks have been arguing.
Ted Oakley 12:26
Yeah, I think for us, we wouldn’t do that anyway. Like, if we have a conservative Fixed Income Account, you know, 80% of that account, is probably going to be less than 60 month maturities. Anyway,
Adam Taggart 12:38
they’re very conservative as its named. Yeah, that was the way
Ted Oakley 12:41
the name is now. If I were running a bond fund, and I was really trying to get performance. Yeah, I, when I see it coming, I’m gonna move on out the yield curve. But that’s not what we’re doing. We’re really trying to in a more of a conservative, solid income mode for people. And so it’s a little different.
Adam Taggart 12:59
Okay. All right. Well, so how is Oxbow allocating right now, given this environment? I’m assuming you’re lighter on stocks than normal? I’m assuming you’re heavier on bonds than normal. Don’t know what your cash positions are. But how are you looking at this?
Ted Oakley 13:17
Well, first of all, Adam, we’re the we’re the most liquid today that we’ve been since the first quarter of 2023 years ago. Why? Because we can’t rise. And secondly, we have a great holding spot to get money. So if you look at it, we have three strategies that were conservative fixed income strategy that really sounds, that’s what it is, it’s very conservative, then we have a middle strategy call a high income strategy. That’s a strategy that doesn’t really own bonds per se, other than treasuries, we hold that up to one year. But they own a lot of other things. And those things we’re trying to get anywhere between, you know, five and a half or six and upwards of nine or 10%. On a cash flow. A lot of what we’re buying now, and particularly in a gas pipelines and things like that, and they’re they come they can compete with real estate, because they’re like eight and a half 9% tax deferred. So we liked that area. On the stock side, were the lowest we’ve been probably ever where we’re only barely 40% investment now we, um, a lot of legacies that have been held over we’ve sold, for example, Microsoft, our longest holding, we sold it numerous times. Okay, Apple, we sold numerous times where we still have legacy positions and at small positions. And we’ve added some things but we just don’t get we don’t get the spot. You know, we don’t have as much money. He’s Warren Buffett is but he’s a good, he’s a good study. He’s sitting there with 120 224 billion and not buying a lot of things right.
Adam Taggart 14:51
He says he can’t find much attractive stuff goodbye.
Ted Oakley 14:54
You know, if the best in the world can’t find it, then what would make me think I could
Adam Taggart 14:59
do Okay. All right. So it sounds like in this market, you’re saying Patience is a valuable asset at this point in time.
Ted Oakley 15:09
Yeah, it’s interesting that you say that we’re because that’s the title of our market letter, which will be out the, the first week and J in July. It’s gonna patients, patients, patients, and people don’t, you know, we’ve gotten in this, Twitter, LinkedIn, all this whole world, it’s instant gratification. And I think they’ll pay they’ll pay the price for that in the stock market. So I think you just have to be patient and, and whatnot. I mean, if if the average return, let’s say on the s&p is 9%, and you’re getting five at a border,
Mike Preston 15:43
why are you worried about it?
Adam Taggart 15:47
All right, well, it’s very well said, Ted love having these conversations, I’m going to have to start wrapping it up here. Although I know I’d love to continue going for another hour with you. And I’m probably gonna get screams from folks that they wish I could hear. But one of the, one of the topics, I just love having you on this program to talk about that maybe we can kind of wrap things up on is you at Oxbow, you, you tend to serve high net worth individuals. And we’ve talked about kind of your sweet spot of entrepreneurs who have a big liquidity event, and they’re now trying to decide what to do with the pile of cash they now have, but also what to do with their lives, right? Because there had been so focused on one mission, and now that mission has just been transferred to the acquire. And so you you help people who are successful wealth builders, and you also help them you know, really wrestle with like, Okay, what’s true wealth in life? Like, yes, we’re going to take good care of your money, but at the end of the day, what gives you happiness? What gives you self worth what gives you fulfillment, and whatnot. So I’m just curious. You know, from your long tenure, dealing with people like that, and, and looking at kind of the average viewer of this channel, right, which is a, you know, the people that are probably more successful than average, but they are still working for a living, and they are trying hard not to put their wealth at risk for what might be coming in to try to grow it into something meaningful through what’s what’s ahead. What kind of counsel would you give them in terms of just like, yeah, the money is important, but but in terms of the clients that you see who are kind of the richest in terms of their total lives, happy families, you know, excited about what they wake up in the morning and do for a day, like, what kind of counsel or insight we give these people to keep in mind. So they don’t get too wrapped up in just the daily machinations of what the stock market’s doing, or what their portfolios doing on any given day.
Ted Oakley 17:53
Well, you know, I spent, you know, really, since 1983, working with people that sold companies and we see a lot of wealth, and when they sell these companies, and I have to say, Adam, that a lot of those people are, I know they’re not happy. And they’re not happy for different reasons, really, some of them really are not happy with their spouse, you know, a number of them are not happy, by the way, they feel this tremendous guilt about the way they raise their children, because they were working all the time, I never saw their children. And now they’re paying the price for that, because their children are really sort of away from them. I see that quite a bit. I see situations where there was always something they wanted to do in the business world. And they, they they just elected not to do it because they’re making so much money in the business they were in. And so it left a lot of dreams unfulfilled for him. Now, the ones I see that really do it correctly have done it, right. They have tremendous family lives, number one, and number two, they’re fulfilled in life, they do things that are number one, good for society. And, you know, you know, remember one of the I’m not Buddhist, but I know one of the tenants of Buddhism is is is that they contemplate death all the time. And if you think about it, if you if you die tomorrow, okay, what what is going to be said about you? What are your children going to feel? What is your community going to feel? What did you do? Okay? And I think the people that we that have done the best for the people we work with, are leaving tremendous legacies of positive. I would say positive vibes into the future that they’ve got out there doing various things. They’re that they’re the ones that do it differently, but it’s but there’s a number of them that really are unhappy and I feel for them, but they couldn’t make a move and really probably get happy but they just don’t want to spend the money.
Adam Taggart 20:02
So, you know, kind of what I take from it. And that’s that’s great insight TED is. Yeah, you know, like, keep your eye on the ball money wise, it creates opportunities for yourself and your family, but don’t make it the Paramount priority. And maybe actually, at times, intentionally, downshift, the pursuit of the money for focusing more on investing in the relationships, building community building purpose in life, giving your family time, and this is resonated with me, because folks in this channel know, Ted, I just lost my mother last week, and got to spend time with her at the end. And it’s really true. More to unpack here, but my mother did, she died with no assets. She was not a wealthy woman monetarily at all. But, you know, she knew near the end that it was terminal, and had one of the best endings we ever could have hoped for. And it’s really true at the end, all you have are your relationships and your memories, right, as you’re not reflecting on what the balance of your bank account is, you’re not reflecting on the things you’re leaving behind, you’re reflecting on your people and the impression that you made on them. And from a social standpoint, it was sort of overwhelming how many great friends and huge followers from her various communities, you know, we’re showing up for her at the end, and we’re mourning her passing and in the ways that matter, she died a really rich woman, even though you know, her bank account balance was probably measured in the hundreds of dollars.
Ted Oakley 21:44
Well, and I can imagine, so from what you’ve told me about as well. And, you know, I think if you look at the people, just one more comment on that if you look at the people that sell companies, and we do work with a sell companies for more than 50 million and upwards of a billion. The number one question they asked me when I’m talking with them, really, when they’re honest with me, is, I really want to know what to do with my children. Because in many cases, they did not, they did not nurture that on the way. And if you have a relationship where you have a really confident relationship with, with your with your mom and dad, and in your case, your mom and dad, you know, that’s worth more than that’s worth more than the amount of money you can buy.
Adam Taggart 22:34
All right, well, thank you for giving such a great answer to this question. And one of the reasons why I want to talk about this is, you know, there’s uncertainty, it’s gonna lie ahead with the economy and the markets and whatnot. And even if you take the most prudent of steps, you know, sometimes you just unlucky, right, and sometimes the chips don’t follow the way that they will. And, you know, if all you prioritize is the money, the dollar value of your portfolio, you can end up missing a lot of the things that truly matter more in life. And I hope folks take away from what you’re saying here, Ted, is, you really got to make a conscious allotment of your time and focus for, you know, focusing on these priorities that you’re talking about the relational ones, the familiar ones, etc. Because that’s what really matters. And you can still have a pretty wonderful time, irregardless of what the the economy of the stock markets are doing, and that’s the end of the day, what really matters. All right, well, let’s, let’s end on that very positive message. Ted, for folks that have enjoyed this conversation. For the few that maybe weren’t familiar with you before this conversation? Where can they go to learn more about you and your work?
Ted Oakley 23:43
Well, the best place Adam is, is the website, Oxbow advisors.com. And we have a lot of books there and different things they can just really request. And we’ve got a new book coming out in about a month, actually. But we always have something being printed that we think is valuable. And they’ll see the market later. There’s a lot of things they can they can get there. And we we don’t we don’t mind showing it to other people or even anybody in the business for that matter. Because, you know, we’re all in this thing together. So in the long run.
Adam Taggart 24:15
All right. So Ted, when we edit this, I’ll put the link to Oxbow advisor on the screen here so folks know exactly where to go. We’ll put it in the description of the video, too. I’m glad you mentioned your books, you and I have gone in depth on one or two of your books and your past appearances on this channel. But, folks, Ted is a prolific author and does a real you know, it’s a gift he offers where he’ll write books on sort of particular topics around successful wealth building and because they’re so focused, they’re info packed, but they’re not all that long, right? So he’s got a really good library there that you can peruse and say, Okay, I’m interested in this or I’m interested in that. You’ll get the books. They’re extremely affordable, but they’re there. You can you can read them and digest and relatively quickly, but he’s basically just condensing a careers worth of expertise into these really digestible publications. So highly recommend you go check those out. All right, Ted, it’s always a total joy having you on the program here, folks, if you’d like to see Ted come back on again, in the near future, when he’s got an update for us here, based on the things he talked about, please help encourage him by hitting the like button, then clicking on the red subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Ted, it’s always a pleasure, buddy. I hope we can have you back on again in the not too distant future. Thank you, Adam. All right. Well, now’s the time of the program where we bring in partners at new harbor financial, whenever they endorse financial advisory firms by Wealthion, to react to the discussion that we just had with Ted Oakley, and also tell us what the markets been up to over the past week. I’m joined, as usual by lead partners, Mike Preston and John loader. Mike, why don’t we start with you? What were some of your key takeaways to this discussion that are with Ted?
Mike Preston 25:58
The first question Adam, you always ask is what is your outlook on the economy in the markets, Ted’s words were is deteriorating? Well, the market, the outlook is deteriorating, there’s a lot of things that we could talk about, we could probably fill two hours just by looking at charts of economic numbers, but let’s just talk about a couple. Inflation is eating its way through the system in the cost of everything is going up, the cost of producing things is going up, the cost of labor inputs is going up and the cost of raw materials is going up. So intead thinks we’re you know, we’re near the end of the rate hiking cycle, he’s probably right, we might have one or two more rate hikes, it’s already pretty much baked in the market. But we’re sitting at a time where profit margins are exceedingly high. And the cost of making things and producing services is going up. Our good friend and colleague John husband put out a good chart today that I might like to just share here briefly and talk to, I’m going to share that now. You know, this chart here, which I think you can see at the moment goes back about 75 years. And it essentially shows in red, the cost of producing things divided by the total cost, or the total value of goods and services, that is labor cost divided by GDP. And in the blue line, it’s nonfinancial corporate profit margins, basically what a profit margins. Presently they’re at about 14% or 14 cents on the dollar of GDP. This goes back 75 years. So it’s not a short term, you know, series of data. And you can see that profit margins have averaged about 8%. Maybe I’d say 9%. But it’s an eight or 9%. That’s about right. And re in the bubble that we’ve been living through, there’s been some some discrepancy in the chart. So in the response to the housing crisis back here, we saw profit margins jump above 12%. Well, that was because of TARP and other stimulus and quantitative easing, shot profit margins, but it’s only because of government deficit spending, where we enjoy these huge gaps in profit margins. And it’s happened again, post COVID. I mean, this is really shot the moon here above 16%. And it’s come down still, but it’s still at exceedingly high levels. TED talks about maybe $200 per share on the s&p over the next year, or maybe $50 A quarter. That’s only if profit margin stay where they are, but costs are going up, take a look at the red line. When costs aren’t going up, profit margins come down, costs are going up. costs are going up even when the worker share of those things of these profit margins is going down. Ted also said that average earnings of the bottom 25% have been declining for 25 months in a row. That’s absolutely correct. But we have a nosebleed market in terms of valuations. If you look at valuations and we have some charts to talk about this a little bit later, they’re higher. They’re at or above every other single bubble peak in really in recorded history above 9029 above 9099, certainly above 2008 You know, that last housing bubble? So we have the highest valuations ever with profit margins that are stretched to the upside only because of government deficit spending. And, and I’ll stop sharing this this chart now. And we have the largest wealth transfer I think in history, which is not a good thing socially. The the top 20% has enjoyed all of the appreciation and housing in the stock market. The very wealthy are sitting on huge cash balances which they’re now getting 5% interest rate on so that’s you know, nice cash flow, but the bottom 80% By and large doesn’t have very much money in the bank. We know this so it’s really unfair. It’s an unfair system. And so that’s not good. And so how does this all this unravel? It’s even worse if you think about the market coming down hard and hurting those bottom 80% that have a 401k that they’re counting on now, particularly if they’re too aggressively allocated. So we have the whole world kind of spinning, you know, like plates spinning at the top of, of a stick, like in a Chinese Acrobat type thing. And they all have to keep spinning or they fall and break. It’s tough, because the only thing we can really talk about is when is the pivot going to be when is the next stimulus going to be? It’s not a stable system. It’s just a couple other things I’d like to mention. And then I’ll save some, some material here for for both of you. TED talks about the s&p being down 8% from its all time high, the NASDAQ 17%. We were within shooting distance of the the all time high, but the all time high in January of 22 is probably the all time high. This is probably not a new bull market. We’ve had a 20% bounce off the October low. There’s many times in history, we’ve seen 20% bounces in the context in the context of bear markets. We think this is another one of those instances we think the valuations are important. We think the labor costs going up is concerning. We think the over bullishness we could show you all the charts and they show you that literally based on a number of different indicators we see bullishness advisors bullishness individual participants bullishness pinned back at at all time highs, so it’s concerning. Lastly, I think I’d say just on his outlook and then I’ll then I’ll let you and John comment. Their outlook is that they’re he’s very, very liquid, as liquid as they’ve been going back to the year 2000. So the most liquid and 23 years apart from a few things like 10 to 14% in long term bonds, which by the way we agree with Ted says he’s not smart enough to know when to move into those. So they like to have a piece there. Now, we do too, we do as well, we’re about 15% and long term bonds, we think that money will flow there, if we see a pullback, or certainly a crisis in the markets and drive those prices up and those yields even lower, we might even see the 10 year below 2% Again, and the next crisis. So having some in the long end makes sense. He seems to agree with that. But having a ton in cash. Makes sense. We’re about 45% in cash equivalents right now, yielding 5%. I don’t think Ted said a percentage, but he said they’re as liquid as they’ve ever been. He mentioned Warren Buffett being close to 140 billion in cash, there is an alternative now. And lastly, patience, patience, patience, patience is what you talked about. That’s going to be Ted’s next letter coming out in the next couple of weeks, I can’t wait to read it. But just continue to be patient. This is all psychological here, this whole wealth effect or targeting what wealth effect has been psychological, and it’s all going to come back to the math. In the end, that doesn’t mean run for the hills, that doesn’t mean life is over. But it does mean probably a substantial bear market. Or at least you can expect good positive returns from these levels in the market. So you can get good positive levels in cash right now hold a lot of cash, bide your time, wait for your opportunity. That’s what we’re doing. And a big part of what people rely on on us to do is to stick to a plan and to be psychologically resilient and to stay patient. And that’s what we’re going to do.
Adam Taggart 33:26
I appreciate that. And that’s a big reason why we recommend that people work with a good professional financial advisor is to try to take the emotion out of it. Right, and just to help people make really measured decisions, because what’s happening right now is there’s really a huge battle going on. Right? There’s a battle between the macro data, which you mentioned a bunch of stats there. And Ted certainly had a whole ton of charts in his discussion with me, you know, the macro data is highly recessionary right now. Right, it paints a relatively grim picture of what likely lies ahead. And, you know, we had talked about the lag effect, we still very much may have the vast majority of the impact of all the Feds activities that it’s already done to date over the past year, the impact of that may still lie ahead of us here, right. So we have all of that data, but then we have the market, you know, the market performance, right, which has been surprisingly strong this year. And the market is not worried about this data. Right. And so investors are really sort of faced with a choice here, right, which is okay, which which of these two diverging bandwagons do I really want to get on? And, you know, I think Ted, I love talking to him because he has decades and decades of experience as a capital manager. And, you know, he’s he’s underscored that. Hey, look, you know, yes, we had a very measured in substantial decline in the markets last year. But we didn’t see the kind of capitulation, right, that ends a true correction. Usually when you have, you know, a true bear market. it when it ends, nobody wants to touch a stock again, right? You know, you, the clients, you’d get punctuated by rallies and in returns of the bear market. And you usually have that sort of 25% wash out that we’ve talked about at the end. And by that time, just everybody’s given up on stocks, we didn’t come anywhere close to that, in this decline over the past year and a half here. And Ted brought up some charts, which you kind of gave reference there to Mike of both the NASDAQ and the s&p from 2000 to 2003, showing that there were plenty of rallies in the market of 2030, even 40%. But they were failed, eventually failed bear market rallies that, you know, over the course of those three years, the market just ground itself down. But at each one of those rallies, it sucked people back in thinking, Okay, this is it, this is the bottom right, and then the bear would come back with its class and just destroy those people, which is really the role of a bear market. Right. So I think that’s really a big fundamental question that investors have to be answering for themselves right now, which is, are we through the woods? Did we somehow avoid just a recession? Right, you know, we’re going to avoid a recession. And did we avoid the commensurate market correction that usually comes along with that? And, uh, you put up a chart there, Mike, that’s a really important one, which is, you know, husband’s chart there that showed profit margins, right. I think it was Jeremy Grantham that said that profit margins are one of the most dependably mean reverting data series that we have in finance. Right, that alone should give you pause if you’re bullish here, because we’re at such extreme levels of profitability. And as you said, Mike, you know, those those times where the profitability diverged upwards from the cost of goods and services? Those are, there’s has historically been done by massive government intervention that, you know, was for a fixed period of time, and then fit the system had to correct we saw that happened very clearly during the GFC. I think we’re seeing it clearly happening in process right now, we just haven’t seen the kind of the right shoulder of that correction coming down yet. So look, again, it could be different this time. And we’ve had some bowls on the channel recently, you know, Ed Yardeni being a very recent one, who can make their argument as they see it for why we actually may be avoiding this pain. But I think if you’re going to get on that bowl bandwagon, you’ve really got to be confident about the data that you’re hanging your hat on there. I think Ted did a really good job with with his data here to say, look, based on the data, and based on my many decades of experience here, I believe that the the fundamentals will eventually matter here. And to your point there, Mike, one of the greatest assets that investors have right now in their arsenal is patience. Because time, you know, we’ll we’ll clarify what happens, and you can sit in safety right now, and get paid a pretty good return on a risk on a risk return adjusted basis. So, you know, I guess that’s the decision that the investor has to make right now, which is, am I going to am I going to stretch here out the risk curve, and try to ride the current party? And what’s going on in equities here? Because I believe the coast is clear. Or do I take the safe bet? To sit more in safety stay liquid get paid well to do so. And then if indeed, this turns out to be a bear market rally, and there’s better valuations ahead, then I’m in the catbird seat to be able to deploy that liquidity at much better valuations. John, let’s come over to you here love to have you opine on anything about about, you know what Ted had to talk about. But also, I believe you’ve got some additional data you prepare that maybe adds some more context to what Ted was saying.
John Llodra 38:58
Yeah, great to be with you going Adam and you guys did a fabulous job encapsulating Ted’s wonderful talk, really like Ted strikes me like Like you’ve touched upon Adam there with his experience and his tenure in the industry. That to me translates to professional who’s not worried about career risk, we pride ourselves for not worrying about our careers so much as digesting and communicating what we see as the best vision of always, never complete jigsaw puzzle, but one that we try use data and perspective to kind of get enough of a picture to see the big picture. And really appreciated his comments at the end there about the concepts of fulfillment and the things that go beyond finances in terms of what makes a complete life. And that’s really the essence of why we do what we do. We love financial markets. We love analyzing and bringing data to the to the front, but it’s all about the people that we serve and hopefully through our work, making their lives one little bit better. So because you guys did such a good job covering his points, maybe I can kind of just add some depth by bringing some some charts and data to kind of to support some of the comments there. So I’m going to share some some slides here and hopefully will kind of illuminate some of those those topics. All right, so hopefully, you can see a chart coming up here as it shone through, okay. Yep. All right. So this is a Ted did talk about a deteriorating economy. This is a chart showing consecutive months of leading economic indicator declines. As you can see, we’ve had a very, very strong run here, 14 months, this is as of the end of May. So this isn’t updated in real time. But you can see any anytime we’ve had any anything near this has been coincident with some pretty nasty recessions. You can never guarantee anything in our world, there are business especially but when you see the incidences with this kind of data. So almost perfectly overlying, overlaying with recessions, you just got to be mindful and, and pay some significant heatons. to it. Sorry to
Adam Taggart 41:09
interrupt, John. But I would also say, coincident with many of those recessions were pretty sharp market corrections to
John Llodra 41:16
Oh, absolutely, absolutely. And the next one just is another look at that this is looking at the leading over the coincident index, and here we have a rapid deterioration. You know, so so we pay attention to this stuff, and we think it matters. And the one thing that a professional like Ted, I think, brings to the table for his clients, and he certainly tried to do this for ours, is, is putting in check that that human you know, aspect of the fear of missing out it’s, it’s an entirely human thing to feel that you’re being human if, if you didn’t, and that’s where data can really help to put that in check. And we think that’s one of our highest values as independent advisors to our clients to help kind of put that limiter on and pump the brakes, when it feels like we’re we may be stooges at the party, but, you know, we’re looking at the bigger picture and perspective of their life and that kind of thing. Ted did talk about his, you know, the debt, interest rates prime rate a plus and his ref, he referenced his participation, I think, on the board of a community bank, and you know, how many small small and mid sized community banks are, you know, heavy in real estate, commercial real estate, loans that are, some of them are fearing to be underwater. But you know, if we look at the actual activity of, you know, this is data is put up, but by the Federal Reserve looking at percentage of banks that are tightening, tightening their lending standards, or loans to commercial industrial companies of small and mid sized firms. Here, you can see a rapid tightening of that. And, you know, the times where we’ve seen these peaks, if we are indeed, what we think of reaching peak, you know, it’s been really consistent with recessions. So, so credit is getting tighter is because these banks are having to kind of like, say, Hey, we’re gonna have to ride out likely some some tough roads ahead, we need to start kind of, you know, putting putting batten down the hatches in anticipation of that, we hear stories from our clients getting called from lines of credit bank saying, Hey, you got this line of credit, we’re going to lower the amount that you can take, they’re starting to kind of rein in the credit abundance that are available to two individuals, households and businesses. The next time. We’re good, John,
Adam Taggart 43:39
just to go back to that chart for one sec. So I talked to Michael Green earlier this week. And we just, you know, talked about the tightening that’s going on here. And the fact that it actually adds as it has the same effect as additional fed interest rate hikes here. So this may be one of the reasons why the Fed decided to skip a little bit was just to say, hey, let’s, let’s see what happens if we pause for a little bit, because in addition to everything we’re doing at the Fed, we have this this bank, lending, tightening effect going on to and you know, we just want to just want to keep an eye to make sure that we’re not in danger of over tightening. You know, Mike Green, and many others think the Fed is probably well over tightening at this stage. And I just want to I just wanted to underscore that because in addition to what the Fed is doing, the banks are compounding the Feds sort of hawkish campaign here. And if the Fed itself is over tightening, the bank technique may just be making the coming recession even worse, because it adds to that.
John Llodra 44:46
Yeah, I think it’s been pretty clear Jay Powell and talking heads at the Fed. I think they’ve made it pretty clear they’d rather err on being too restrictive and tighten too much than too little and have inflation become even more entrenched and even more a problem. You know, we had some blowout economic reports yesterday, or, you know, manufactured goods new hit home sales, a couple of other, you know, numbers that were significantly beating estimates. Any month’s data you can’t put too much weight in. And it’s a very noisy data series. But I got to think that’s going to lay into the defense for path impact, Jay Powell was out today, I think saying, hey, we need to get more restrictive, you know, that pause we talked about, we’re still got, we still got to get the work. And perhaps, maybe looking at what the market imply this is actually CMEs kind of is a glimpse at the markets probability assessment of so we’re currently at a five to five and a quarter Fed funds rate. Basically, this is looking at, you know, probabilities for where the Fed funds rate will be at the dissent, you know, between now and then. And by the December meeting, so half a year from now, a couple of things I want to note here. So first of all, these are probabilities, that the light blue ones are from May 26, is the market as of May 26, what they perceive the Fed funds rate would be in probabilities associated with that come December. Okay, so, the light blue is so when we go right to left, this is a progression in time such that the blue bar here is the current market assessment. So a couple things, you see, you see that, you know, any any kind of market assessment of declines, you know, that pivot pivot pivot, pivot to reducing, that has just fallen off the off the mark any market consensus there anytime soon, certainly not this year. But you also see that there’s been a steady increase in the market perception of five and a quarter to 550, or even 550 to 575. And even now, we’re starting to see, you know, get up to 6%. So this is what the market is starting to, you know, kind of price in as odd to four. So we don’t think there’s any pivot reduction rate anytime soon. And, you know, even when it does come, we’ve said, time and time again, we’ll probably be in a panic to stem, you know, a pretty significant decline in markets.
Adam Taggart 47:19
So, John, just a couple quick, interesting observations on this, which is, the whole year, the Fed has been talking that it’s going to be more committed to doing what it needs to do to tame inflation, and that it’s not going to pivot and that it’s going to be higher, for longer and all that. And the market has consistently called the Feds bluff and said, Now, I don’t believe you. And you know, you’ve done a good job of showing here how the market is actually had to walk its expectations back to every time there’s been a divergence this year, the market has lost and set up, I guess we got to reevaluate our projections here. What’s interesting to me, is, the market has continued to rise despite that, right? And this is sort of one of those disconnects, right, that I was talking about here, where you have this disconnect with a market is essentially stepping back, stepping back, stepping back from from when it’s challenging the Fed, and yet, market prices have been going higher. And so you’ve got to ask yourself, at what point is that have to reconcile that’s just one of those, you know, big divergences that’s gonna have to resolve at some point this year.
John Llodra 48:26
That is the key question, Adam, you know, why is there this disconnect? And how permanent or temporary as we think that that broad disconnect is? And that is the question.
Adam Taggart 48:38
Yeah. And to your point there about talent saying, hey, look, and he said this a lot, you said, look, we’ve got the tools to re stimulate the economy if we need to. So I think he feels a lot more confident that if he’s going to break something, you know, he’d rather break it in a way that, you know, contracts growth, because he quote unquote, knows how to fix it. Now we can argue whether we agree with that, or whether we agree with it. We like the tactics he’s going to use. But But I get his logic there, right, he would much rather not mess up the other way around, where he keeps the economy too hot that inflation doesn’t get tamed, and maybe even becomes worse again. And inflation, particularly the measurements of inflation, that the Fed looks at core inflation, PCE, that type of stuff. That’s been a lot more sticky than the headline CPI. So you know, I think they’re sweating it there. You just mentioned a flotilla of data that came out recently that again, shows the economy is still pretty robust and resilient, which says to Powell, okay, we gotta keep getting even more aggressive if we want to bring inflation down. I want to put up one quick chart here too, which is basically how employment estimates have beaten expectations. You’ll see here, they’ve beaten expectations for 14 the past 14 periods in the data series here. Now this is a data series that generally if it’s if it’s working correctly, you know, 50% of the time, we should be expectations 50% of the time we shouldn’t, right. But we’ve now had 14 out performances, this is sort of the equivalent of flipping a coin 14 times in a row and having it come up heads, every time now, we’ve talked a bit in the past about has something changed in the way the data is being reported, that makes it a little bit less trustworthy? I think this chart certainly underscores that that very well may be the case. The point I’m making here, though, is if you’re the Fed, and you’re saying, All right, look, I’m trying to bring inflation under control. And one of the ways I’m trying to do that is to decrease demand. And one of the ways we decrease demand is we make the cost of doing business more expensive, and companies, then their profit margins get squeezed, yes, they have to start laying people off reducing jobs. That’s just part of the cooling off process. That is not happening at all. Right now, basically. So again, it’s just one more thing. In addition to all the data points, you mentioned, that the Fed is saying, I’ve got to be even more aggressive going forward. So you know, again, if you’re, if you’re looking at that disconnect between the market and the fundamentals, you’ve really got to be asking yourself, what’s the Fed going to be doing in the middle of all this? Because the Fed is continuing to, to get even more hawkish, as time goes on, you know, it gets harder and harder to basically support the like new bull market, you know, from here narrative.
John Llodra 51:31
Yeah, absolutely. And we can go back and look at is employment, as you’ve talked about many times, and we’ve talked with you, folks like Michael Kantrowitz have talked about, it’s a classically lagging indicator. In fact, I could share a chart with you probably find it not too hard, not here at the moment. But you look at typically, in the beginning of real recessions, you get really strong employment numbers, and it’s, they deteriorate into the recession. And by the bottom of the recession, they look the worst. So they’re they’re very lagging indicator. So So, but that is a very persistent thing that I think is gonna have to try and get in rain here. And no offense is very confident, probably most confident in their ability to fix things. And their track record is questionable, I suppose at
Adam Taggart 52:18
best. All right, I’m Mike, I’m gonna come to you. I’m just going to talk to you the topic of gold because it’s something that I know, plays an important role in your guys’s portfolio. We talked about it fairly often. It’s continuing to, you know, unimpressed here, right now, I would say, you know, it’s back below 2000. I think the time we’re talking here, it’s in the 1920s announced or something like that, which is disappointing. If you’ve been excited about gold for the past year. Of course, it’s still not that far from from, you know, its all time highs. It’s not like we’re down in the 1600s or something like that right now. But I’m curious, what’s your guys’s current outlook on Gold is gold, just basically retracing here and setting up for a continued move higher? Or is this weakness that maybe it’s beginning to get you guys concerned?
Mike Preston 53:15
We don’t like to see the pullback year it’s, you know, to 1920 or so it looks like 1921 right now on the futures market. I’m looking at the chart, I don’t know that I that I need to share it here. But it’s, we’ve shared it many times. It’s a very, very long consolidation in gold. You know, really, from the 2011 peak until now, after 2011, it was a 10 year consolidation. And here, we’ve been bouncing around, you know, between 19 102,000 and a little bit higher over the last bunch of months. And there’s been fake outs in both directions. So it’s frustrating the heck out of everybody. Today, we have a little bit of strength in the dollar, it’s a 102 and change almost 103. So there’s been minor strength in the dollar the last week or so that’s been a bit of a headwind, perhaps to gold. I just don’t think it’s a big deal. I see that it’s in the consolidation phase on the monthly chart. And that could last a bit longer. As long as gold holds above about 1820 minimum, much another support areas 1900 or so. So that’s getting a little bit tenuous, I know. But really big picture it needs to hold above that, that level of 1820. So I believe it’s just biding its time consolidating continuing to frustrate everybody. And I do believe it will break out. I don’t know what the catalyst will be. I do believe it’ll breakout above 2000, particularly above 2100 or so. It should shoot it up to about 2500. I don’t know what gets us there. The chart to me says that will be what happens. In the meantime, we continue to believe in it. And we believe in the gold mining stocks, gold and silver mining stocks they too, are unimpressive and even relative The Gold the mining stocks are have done an impressive Our position is hedged at least on 50% of our position. And the hedges are not very far below current levels. So patience, it seems like that’s the mantra, all his, with all of these things unless you’re in one of the top eight stocks. And Ted talks about that, too. This is a market of eight stocks. He said, It’s true, we’ve started to see a little bit of broadening out into some other things. But unless you’re in those names, you better be patient and you and frankly, you better not take too too much risk because there’s a lot of downside risk across the board. So hold some gold, try not to look at it too much. And you know, wait for the breakout, maybe 10% of your investable assets, we often say five to 10% of your investable assets, just take 10% of your investable assets, buy some gold, you’re getting a decent buying opportunity here down at 1920. We’ve noticed too, that some of the premiums have been getting better on the coins, the American Gold eagles had substantial premiums above Canadian Maple Leaf and South African Krugerrands that seems to have contracted so that you might actually be able to buy American Gold Eagles again, if that’s what you’re looking for. The Silver Eagles are still in my opinion out of reach. The premiums are sky high on those relative to the Canadian and the South African coins, for example. So that was a lot of words to say, be patient. We don’t like to see the consolidation, but we’re not worried. We’re not worried yet.
Adam Taggart 56:34
Okay. All right, good. I just given the relatively recent action there, I wanted to make sure that we gave folks your update on it. Speaking of updates, I just want to remind folks that Wealthion spal conference is on the calendar. I’ve mentioned here before, but I’ll mention it again. That’s going to be Saturday, October 21. We are working hard to make this the best conference that we’ve had yet. And if you’ve attended ones in the past, you know how high that bar already is. I’m happy to share some of the people that have already signed on for the conference. Lacey Hunt is going to be doing his keynote for us. And if you’ve seen those keynotes in the past, you know how incredibly valuable they are. They are worth I think in my opinion, the cost of the entire conference, Justin Lacey’s presentation there. In additional AC, Jim Grant, from Grants Interest Rate Observer will be coming on. So we’ve got the godfather of interest rates, Michael Kantrowitz, who you mentioned earlier, guys, he’s going to come on and give us the latest update on where we are in his hope framework there. Kyle bass has agreed to come on. So we’ll get his macro outlook, but also his his take on the geopolitical landscape and what to expect from that going forward. Ivy Zelman has just committed to come on, and she’ll be giving us her latest update on the real estate market. We’ve got a number of other guests that are basically pretty close to a yes, I just don’t want to be premature in in making those announcements. But as they do tip into a 100%. Yes, I’ll announce them on this channel going forward here. But as you can already tell from that core group of folks that have signed on, that is a very, very August panel of experts. And we’re just going to continue to add more and more people that same caliber going forward. So more on that, as it develops. John, I’ll let you have the last word here. You know, Ted. Again, one of the reasons why I like talking to him, it sounds like one of the reasons you like talking with him as well is Ted. You know, his specialty at his firm is really high net worth individuals. I mean, his sort of common client average client is somebody who’s usually sitting on 10s of millions of dollars, usually an entrepreneur who’s run a company for many years, and then sold it successfully. So he sort of swims in the sea of highly affluent people. But as Ted has told us in the past, you know, he grew up in a house that didn’t have electricity or indoor plumbing, he knows what it’s like to be on the very bottom end of the socio economic spectrum. He’s done a lot of philanthropy in his life to help disadvantaged people’s especially children. But he really has a strong sense of what matters in life, like what true wealth is, and that it’s not just the size of your portfolio and as measured in dollars. It’s much more of sort of the softer and more human assets out there. You know, like your relationships, like your health, like living with purpose and whatnot. So just in in wrapping up here, I know you talk to a lot of people I know they contact you with their their anxieties about money, their hopes and dreams about monies. I know right now, you’re getting a lot of people that are maybe experiencing that uncomfortable experience of FOMO emotion of FOMO inside their guts, which is Oh my god. rush. Is the market racing out ahead of me here. Have I missed it? Do I need to get off the sidelines? Or at least do I need to alter my defensive positions and get really aggressive right now, I want to give you a chance just to sort of speak to people’s emotions right now, especially through the lens of an advisor like yourself who like Ted is really grounded in what really matters in life.
John Llodra 1:00:22
Yeah, absolutely. And that, that is in the range of emotions, runs the gamut, obviously, in in, in the context of what we do every day with financial markets. That is a big part of it, the fear of being left out the fear of not having enough, the wondering if they have enough? You know, one of the things that we try to do with our clients is to help them answer the questions that were asked the questions that otherwise would be left unasked, and therefore unanswered, because just the unknown, is stress inducing itself sometimes, and I’m sure we all we hear and everybody watching can probably relate back to points in their life, where even if the finding out of something isn’t the rosiest of news is somehow still less tread stressful than just not asking the question and not investigating because it’s unknown as inherently unknown and scary, right? No, and even if it’s not great, or not completely rosy, you somehow can be more settling, because at least you know what to expect. And you can real, you know, humans are pretty resilient people. And we can we can reorient our lives in our in our psyche around something that’s brought into the realm of the unknown,
Adam Taggart 1:01:34
right? Avoidance in denial is not a not a constructive strategy.
John Llodra 1:01:39
Absolutely. So we obviously try to weave that kind of connectivity into the financial investing discussions we have with clients. And we’re fortunate to have, you know, maybe not as many as a percentage of our client, but a handful of the kinds of clients that head serves, you know, entrepreneurs, so many of whom started out very, very, basically, and worked hard. But I can tell you, this, people with 10s of millions of dollars, most of them, especially the ones that are oriented around the really important things in life, they’re no different than folks with the few $100,000 and sense of purpose and fulfillment and things like that. And that’s what really makes our job kind of really neat, being able to connect and be part of a team of really good people.
Adam Taggart 1:02:30
Yeah, and, and that’s one of the reasons why, you know, I’ve been referring people to you, John, for over a decade now. But you’re kind of giving me this idea that, so my wife, as we’ve talked about, is a marriage family therapist, and being out here in the San Francisco Bay area, you know, a good deal of our clients are fairly wealthy, you know, there’s a lot of people have made a lot of money, especially in Silicon Valley. And it’s so interesting, because I think most people have the impression that yeah, you know, they say money doesn’t buy happiness, but it probably really does, right. And to a certain extent, there’s probably some truth in that, but we kind of imagine there’s this linear relationship between net worth and happiness in life. And I can tell you, it’s really just not the case. And it’s almost I’m not saying it is, but it’s almost an inverse relationship, that the families that have a lot of money, they have a whole host of issues that oftentimes consider to be tied to the fact that they have so much money, that create a lot of dysfunction in their life. And, you know, I’m not saying money is bad, not not by any stretch. But I think, you know, having maybe a little bit of a more eyes wide open sense of, of what money can do Do for you as a real life enhancer. But oftentimes, what it doesn’t do for you, so that people aren’t just sacrificing what really matters in life, just chasing the big number of okay, I’ve got XML at write in net worth. And so you’re kind of making me think it might be fun to have a conversation at some point in time, where we bring you guys together with my wife, and maybe one or two other her other colleagues and we can kind of Munch together kind of the the financial management perspective, part of the equation, and then the relationship part of the equation in sort of mental health and what matters in life side. Maybe maybe we do that with with some live q&a from the audience.
John Llodra 1:04:24
Yeah, we would love that, Adam, and we’ve known you more than a decade, and we’d say we know it. We’ve known your wife for over a decade too. So we would love to collaborate in that way.
Adam Taggart 1:04:33
All right. Well, folks, if that would be of any interest to folks. Let us know in the comment section below. And if so, maybe we’ll we’ll set up a, you know, a live q&a where folks can just ask whatever questions they want. That could be really fun and interesting, but we’ll only do it if there’s enough interest in it. All right. Well, look in wrapping up here. Just want to remind everybody, Ted did a phenomenal job of explaining a lot of the cross currents a lot of the disconnects between the fun The rental data and what the markets are doing right now. But basically just underscoring that this is a really challenging time to navigate for professionals like him. But certainly the average person, you know, I think, has a lot of challenges, you know, navigating this type of market environment. And that’s why, week in and week out, we always remind people and encourage them that they’ve learned most of them should be working under the guidance of a good, well experienced, professional financial advisor who takes into account of the macro risks, issues and opportunities that Ted and I and then John, Mike and I have talked about here, if you’ve got a good one who’s doing that for you, who’s putting together a personalized portfolio plan for you, and then executing upon that plan for you, while keeping you well informed, fantastic. Stick with them, those folks are really, really rare. But if you don’t have one, or you’d like a second opinion from when he does, maybe even John and Mike and their team there at new harbor, then consider scheduling a free, no strings attached consultation with the financial advisors that Wealthion endorses to do that, just go fill out the short form@wealthion.com. These consultations, as I mentioned, are totally free, they don’t cost you anything. There’s no commitment to work with these guys. It’s just a public service that they offer to the public to help as many people as possible position prudently, particularly in advance of a number of issues that may drop that Ted and I talked about here. And if you would like to see Ted, come back on this channel again, as well as other great guests of his caliber, please support us by hitting that like button and clicking on the red subscribe button below, as well as that little bell icon right next to it, guys. It’s been wonderful. Thanks so much for joining me for another week. I look forward to seeing you guys next week. Everyone else. Thanks so much for watching.
Mike Preston 1:06:44
We always enjoy it, Adam. Thanks for having us here every week. And thanks, everyone for watching. We’ll see you next weekend. Thank you.
Adam Taggart 1:06:52
If you’d like to schedule a consultation with one of the financial advisors at new harbor financial simply go to wealthion.com. These consultations are completely free and there are no strings attached. The good folks at new harbor was simply answer any questions you have about your investment goals or your portfolio and give you their best advice given their latest market outlook. They’re willing to do this because they care about protecting people’s wealth. And because Wealthion has connected them with so many thoughtful investors just like you over the past decade. We started doing this because so many people have approached us in frustration looking for a solution because they’re feeling out of alignment, or downright ridiculed by the standard financial advisors who have been managing their money. You know the type, the kind that just pushes all of your money into the market. scoffs at the idea of owning gold. And when you bring up concerns about the market sky high valuations, they say don’t worry, the market will always take care of you. For many of the reasons discussed in today’s video, we think this is one of the most challenging and treacherous times in history for investing. We strongly believe that today’s investors are best served working in partnership with a conscientious professional financial advisor who understands the risks in play. Now we’re agnostic, which professional advisor you work with, as long as they’re good. If you’re already working with one, that’s fantastic, stick with them. But if you don’t, or having trouble finding one you respect or trust, then consider talking to John and Mike and the team at new harbor. For those about to ask yes, there’s a business relationship between Wealthion and new harbor, which we’ve put in place to make sure everything is handled according to SEC regulations. All the details on this clearly provided on the wealthion.com website. Also, it’s important to note that new harbor is able to work with US citizens, green card holders and those with existing assets in the USA, but for regulatory reasons they aren’t able to take on non US clients. All right, with all that said, if you’d like some insight and guidance on how to protect your wealth during this unprecedented time in the markets, go to wealthion.com to schedule your free consultation with the good folks at you harbor. Thanks for watching.
