In a lot of ways, we’re in uncharted territory right now.
While we face a litany of daunting challenges on an increasing number of fronts — including this weekend’s tragic developments in the middle east — we’ve never had so much debt weighing us down at the national and the household level.
And the cost to service that debt has recently ballooned, to levels that may well be unsustainable.
How will this resolve?
CAN it resolve without some sort of financial crisis or painful defaults?
To discuss, we welcome a new voice to this channel, global markets analyst Adam Kobiessi, publisher of the Kobiessi Letter.
Follow Adam at https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/
Or on social media @KobeissiLetter
Adam Kobeissi 0:00
Even if the Fed doesn’t pivot, that doesn’t mean that interest rates are done going up, right treasury yields, I think the tenure could easily go above 5%, even without another rate hike. So I think that’s the first important factor. To know here you can have mortgage rates go to 9%. Without another Fed rate hike in excess household savings are being depleted at a rate of over 100 billion a month, they’re probably going to hit zero by the end of the year. And it’s the exact opposite situation. So people are now compensating for that through more leverage, right, more credit card debt, more loans more, any way to kind of maintain what they’re used to. Right. But that’s not sustainable, as you mentioned. And I think once the lag effect is 100% real. And I also think with these macro economic trends, they don’t play out overnight, right? These trends take sometimes months years, even longer to develop. But the longer you push us brushes under the rug, it’s the worst that the ultimate correction that we see will be and I’m not talking about just that I’m talking about for everyday Americans.
Adam Taggart 1:06
Welcome to Wealthion and Wealthion founder Adam Taggart, in a lot of ways, we’re in uncharted territory right now. While we face a litany of daunting challenges on an increasing number of fronts, including this past weekend’s tragic developments in the Middle East. We’ve never had so much debt weighing us down at the national and the household levels, and the cost of service that debt has recently ballooned to levels that may well be unsustainable. How will this resolve? Can it resolve without some sort of financial crisis or painful defaults? To discuss, we welcome a new voice to this channel, global markets analyst Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the Kobeissi Letter. Adam, thanks so much for joining us today.
Adam Kobeissi 1:52
Thanks for having me. Excited to be here.
Adam Taggart 1:54
Yeah, it’s a pleasure. And you know, it took a bit of time to get this scheduled. I’m so glad we stuck to it finally got you on the channel here. Really looking forward to introducing the Wealthion audience to you and your work. Lots of talk about Adam, you’re very prolific. So I went through a lot of your recent writings. I got a lot of great questions here for you. Before we get into them, though, if we could just start at the high level, where I’d like to start all these discussions. What’s your current assessment of the global economy and financial markets?
Adam Kobeissi 2:20
Sure. Yeah, I think it’s it’s definitely a very interesting time. Very unique backdrop here, especially as we have the Fed tightening, give central banks around the world really doing completely different things, the Feds tightening, Europe’s tightening kind of pausing, China’s cutting and everything in between. So but you know, our take has kind of been, the market is just incredibly resilient. Overall. I mean, equity markets are just incredibly resilient overall, despite all the possible headwinds that we’ve seen all the things that we all do different crises. We’ve seen geopolitical tensions, the Fed raising rates, the debt situation, but we’re still really watching the bond market as a primary driver of a lot of price action across the board here. I think the bond markets have been very telling, I think there’s definitely a big gap and on bond prices and equity valuations, which is something we’ve also been very vocal on. But I think the overall theme is the economy has been more resilient than even the Fed expected. And does that mean that will continue to be the case? I mean, that’s, that’s up for debate. But we’re definitely not in a 2008 scenario, I think we’re just continuing to see volatility, we’ll see more fed base pressure higher for longer. But it really is a unique time right now.
Adam Taggart 3:40
All right. I’m curious. Because I just listen to your answer there. I’m just wondering, when you talk about the surprising resilience? Are you adding to that, you know, for now? In other words, and we’ll get into this and the meat, so don’t feel like get answered all right now. But like, you know, there’s a lot of debate going on about whether sort of lag effects don’t matter. I think a lot of people have gotten to the point because the economy has held up so well, this year so far. And the markets have actually put into good performance this year. That’s why we’ve been seeing the emergence of the hopes for a soft landing or even the no landing scenario and whatnot. Do you see potential here that, that maybe we have somehow threaded the needle, and there’s a way to, to just gently get through all the issues that, you know, we were worried about in 2022 without too much pain? Or do you think it’s more likely there was some sort of reckoning ahead, and we just haven’t hit the tipping point yet? Yeah, I
Adam Kobeissi 4:41
mean, I think that I mean, we might have already have had a hard landing, right? I mean, it hasn’t really been necessarily the greatest economic time but for the last year or so. Right? We’ve had high inflation we have consumers struggling affordability and housing markets at all time lows, but the soft landing is more I think the Fed It is trying to declare more of a soft landing in terms of unemployment, you know, the labor market remains secularly tight. And even with the recent slight uptick in unemployment rate to 3.8%, we’re still way ahead of full full employment, which is defined by, you know, 5% unemployment by economists. So I think the chance that we can bring inflation down, I mean, it leads to the three 3% area, maybe 2.5 to 3%. Without a significant spike in unemployment. I think that has become very real. I think that’s definitely right now, I think that’s the base case scenario. But do I think that we’re, there won’t be bumps in the road? No, I think, you know, I think there will definitely be bumps in the road, but, and also getting the inflation from 3%. Now that 2% is going to be a very, very difficult thing for the Fed. I mean, to go from where we are, where we were, where we are now, was obviously difficult, but we saw some quick progress. I think now, inflation will be very stubborn in that 3% area. And even core numbers are still before and if the Fed has made it clear, 2% is their target, not 2.1, not 2.2, not three 2%. So I think getting down to that exact target is where you’re going to start to see progress kind of slow a little bit. Right now, it feels like we’ve gotten so far so, so quickly. I think, you know, like the feds have done themselves. 2% inflation might not come until 2025.
Adam Taggart 6:29
Yeah, is this sort of a Pareto principle and action here, which is the first 80% requires 20% of the effort, but the remaining 20% takes 80% of the effort.
Adam Kobeissi 6:40
Absolutely. And I think also, you know, headline numbers, especially with the volatility that we’re seeing commodity prices, energy prices, those headline inflation numbers are going to become even more stubborn oil prices back above 8090 are not, it’s not what the Fed wants to see. And it’s also worth noting the Feds not 100% to blame for the inflation situation. A lot of this inflation is supply side driven factors. Starting with what happened between Russia and Ukraine now you’re seeing energy prices rising from the Middle East tensions, and supply chain disruptions from the pandemic and everything in between there. You can’t blame the Fed entirely for that they’re actually using demand side monetary policy to kind of compensate for the supply side situation that still remains very tight and hard to hard to really fight with just interest rates and the Fed’s balance sheet.
Adam Taggart 7:31
Okay. So I mentioned in my intro when you just mentioned there, this past weekend’s tragic developments in the Middle East, most notably, the outbreak of of, you know, kinetic fighting between, well, what the yesterday was Hamas and Israel. While we’re talking here, it looks like Hezbollah and Israel might be now skirmishing in the north. Hopefully this isn’t going to continue metastasizing. But but but who knows, it’s still very much in play. I’m just curious, could you this will be the first video that will launch on my channel, post those developments, which are very early take at this point in time of the impact that this new development may have on the macro situation. medium high low? TBD. Yeah.
Adam Kobeissi 8:24
Um, you know, obviously, it’s very, very unfortunate to see what’s happening. And I think peace is obviously a victory for everyone, everyone around the world, not just those in the conflict. And you know, what these events mean, and I’m not a wartime stretch is I’m not a geopolitical expert by any means. So I’m not going to try and speculate on how this comes out, strategically speaking for the countries involved, but more so for the macro picture. You know, I mentioned first oil prices, energy resources, by far the most volatile component of CPI over the last couple of years are now back up. And there’s probably more of a reason now for oil prices to remain elevated. And interestingly, you actually saw some flight back into gold today. Due to just safe haven investment demand, you haven’t really seen the gold trade move up. I mean, for weeks now, like it’s been just straight down, you have a strong dollar, strong treasury yields are rising towards their highs. Now you’re seeing the safety trade kind of prevail. Does that mean that we think the safety trade is back? I don’t really think so. I think rallies and gold are still sold. I think just from a macroeconomic perspective, you can expect more volatility from that that energy, you know, component of inflation, obviously core numbers strip that out. But on the headline numbers, higher oil prices seem like they’re this is just another reason why our prices are here to stay amongst, among many other reasons, which is why we’ve been bullish. I’ve been bullish on oil for basically the entirety of this year, aggressively bullish call. for prices to go towards the 100 next, right now, so,
Adam Taggart 10:03
okay, and you already had that call before this weekend,
Adam Kobeissi 10:06
obviously this before this weekend, right probably, unfortunately
Adam Taggart 10:08
makes that call, you know, even stronger. As you said, that is not what the Federal Reserve and other central banks fighting inflation want to see. Right? Because, right, higher oil prices flow into everything. They’re inflationary by nature. So, all right, so you think you think right now oil continues to catch a bid probably even a stronger one after this weekend’s events? And I’m just curious, I know, I’m asking you to really speculate here. So don’t worry, I’m not going to hold any of this. But um, you know, the Middle East is such a powder keg. Neither you nor I are really geopolitical analysts here. I’m definitely not. But the dangers of this type of conflict is not only is this just the region unstable itself, but there’s a lot of big powers that have been, you know, aligned with one or the other of the players here. And it’s just forcing them even more at this point in time to take a side and can that, you know, lead to larger geopolitical ramifications between these different parties. You know, America is very pro Israel, for example, Iran is very pro Palestine. So does the risk premium for the global economy rise as a result of this? Yeah,
Adam Kobeissi 11:29
I mean, I think objectively, the answer is, yeah, and I think that’s that you hit the nail on the head, this this conflict is a lot of different major world powers, kind of, you know, kind of behind the scenes pulling strings, right? It’s not, there’s, there’s a lot more depth to this problem than just what’s what’s at the surface. Right. And I think, obviously, you know, risk premiums are up, I think this kind of builds on already existing geopolitical tension seen between Ukraine and Russia. And, you know, just having instability in a time where supply side dynamics and the macroeconomics picture are already tired already being challenged, is just about the last thing we need. So I think markets will will look for any sign that this this conflict right now in the Middle East is as contained as possible. Because, obviously, a lot of the speculation, I mean, Israel and Palestine are not huge producers of oil, right? They’re not, they’re not really significant in the oil picture in the grand scheme of things. It’s more about the other parties that play you mentioned Iran, and other parties in the Middle East, even Russia, that are some of the world’s biggest oil producers. That’s where the speculation is coming into play. And I think markets are going to keep looking for any sign possible that this conflict is as contained as possible, which I’m hoping that’s the case.
Adam Taggart 12:52
Okay. I hope it’s the case to if it continues to just sort of add to global concerns. You mentioned earlier that one of the big dynamics in the markets right now is that bond yields have just been marching higher and higher here. Right. And, you know, those are, you know, they’re a benchmark for risk, right, where basically investors are demanding to get paid more for the risk of of owning these bonds. You know, a geopolitically destabilizing event like this is interesting, because in theory, I’d love to get your thoughts on this. You might think, okay, then, in general, investors are just going to want a higher risk premium for kind of anything at this point in time, because the world just became a little bit more uncertain, except maybe for, you know, what are considered to be the true safe haven assets like US Treasuries? I think right now, it’s a little bit too early to tell what’s going on as a result of this, but But would you expect this development in the Middle East, if it’s not quickly contained, to bleed into, you know, bond yields and whatnot?
Adam Kobeissi 14:01
Yeah, I think you will see some demand in the in the, you know, gold, the traditional safe haven assets. But I also think that those assets have actually kind of lost their shine, no pun intended as being the safe haven, vehicles in this market. I think money market funds and out of all things are now the new safe haven trade. Because, sure, you will see, you know, bonds do well in times of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, but there’s also so many other major factors that play that might even have more significance towards the bond markets and gold markets than than just geopolitical tensions. Right. I think one of those is the Fed as we discussed, another one of those is deficit spending. Which is is forcing the US Treasury to issue trillions of dollars in bills and bonds and right now we’re the saving greatest is that a lot of these issuances are not long term bonds, but I think markets are Starting to, they’re starting to become a little bit more nervous about if deficit spending sustains current, its current pace, which by the way, that debt ceiling is uncapped until January 2025, they’re gonna have to start issuing some of these long dated bonds that will keep driving treasury yields higher. And I think that’s a factor here that is very, very underplayed very undermentioned, across media. And I actually think that’s one of the primary drivers, I don’t even think the Fed is entirely to blame for higher interest rates, right, they do raise the Fed funds rate. But there’s many other factors that are impacting mortgage rates, credit card rates, consumer consumer loans, just about any sort of debt out there. It’s not entirely the Fed, and they take a lot of that blame. So that’s a long answer to say, I think that will provide some some demand for bonds. But I don’t think that will supersede these other vastly bearish factors for the bond market.
Adam Taggart 15:53
Okay, and let’s talk about the deficit spending, because that’s, that’s where I was gonna go next. I’ve said several times on this channel, we, when you look at the percentage of GDP that we’re currently spending on our deficit, it’s at wartime levels, you know, very, very rare. Rarely have we seen a deficit, this high percent of GDP, and never before outside of wartime. And never before with unemployment this low either, right. So normally, you see something like this when, you know, again, we’re fighting a World War, more or less, or we’re really trying to boost the economy due to something really terrible and unprecedented, like, say, a global pandemic, right. So strange in many people’s minds that we’re doing this in what are now quote unquote, you know, we have a good resilient economy. Right. But it I’ve also talked about how the Fed is, you know, it’s interesting, the Fed is trying to slow the economy, right, using monetary breaks, but at the same time, the Congress and the administration are pushing on the gas pedal on the fiscal side of things. So policies are at odds right now. Right. So obviously, well, let you respond to this. You can’t do that forever, right. I mean, it has implications, right. And both in terms of inflation in terms of people beginning to get concerned about, you know, the bonds that you’re issuing to fund all of this. It has issues about purchasing power, the currency. So what what do you think, is likely to happen here with a deficit? Will it have to get reined in? Or will they just Damn the torpedoes and sacrifice those other things?
Adam Kobeissi 17:33
I think eventually, I mean, this is the elephant in the room that you can’t, you can’t keep spending, it’s like we came off a period of time where debt was almost free, right? That service costs on us were below 2% 1.5% for decades. So borrowing and doing in, you know, printing 4 trillion in stimulus, and all these different measures that happened over the last few years were extremely cheap. Now, debt service costs are rising, they’ve almost doubled, they’re nearing 3%. And we could see a rise even towards four or 5%. In the coming years. That that’s a real material increase in the cost of just having debt and servicing that debt for at the US federal level. Not to mention, it’s almost it’s predicted to be almost 20% of just annual government budget will be interest expense. So I think eventually, and by the way, this is not a political ticket by any means. This is objectively speaking with the way that current spending is moving. And unless we have a significant increase in nominal GDP are that rises at the same rate that we’re spending the interest rate, the interest expense is rising. We’re going this is not a long term, sustainable path that we’re on. Right. And I think the most recent debt ceiling bill, kind of really put us in this situation as well. I mean, we’ve added over 2 trillion in debt since June, because of the fact that it didn’t really address anything other than removing the debt ceiling for two years. And then kind of pushing this pushing the debate down the road, we keep pushing this, this issue, you know, brushing
Adam Taggart 19:06
will always kick this can as far as they can, whenever
Adam Kobeissi 19:09
exactly right. And the problem is, we’re not thinking about a long term solution here. And I’m not here to say that I do have a long term solution, but I think it starts with spending, I think spending is still just very high, it’s out of control. And not to mention, federal tax receipts are down about 8% and the trailing 12 months base 12 month basis. So you have tax receipts going down with spending going up. Something needs to give here need to close that gap.
Adam Taggart 19:36
Okay. I’ve got questions I want to get to just sort of about your thoughts about you know, what the Feds options are? Any additional thoughts on your inflation outlook, whatnot. We’ll get to that in a bit because there’s some interesting territory I want to cover on the way there. But let me just ask you this and I’m asking you to speculate. You know, we’ve got an election coming up in a year. Do you think They can continue this current level of deficit spending through the election. Obviously, the current administration would probably like to do that. Or do you think that there are factors that might make that impossible? And if so, you know, do we see, will we see some sort of, you know, correction in the current resilience as a result of that?
Adam Kobeissi 20:24
I think one thing that might help rein in some spending efforts, which might is a very, you know, might is hopeful is the fact that the, the government shutdown that almost occurred, just got postponed till mid November, right with the short term funding bill. So in about a month from now, we’re going to kind of be in the same situation unless unless Congress is able to come up with with a bill sooner before then. But we’re going to be in the same situation where we’re on the verge of a government shutdown, and we may even see a shutdown, and that might force you know, one side to compromise with the other and rein in spending a little bit. But otherwise, I don’t really see a reason why deficit spending will be reined in prior to 2025. As I mentioned, with the debt limit, effectively, uncapped. The Fed is obviously being very aggressive, and everyone’s trying to kind of have a soft landing. So there’s a lot of factors at play here. And as you mentioned, election year, and a lot of different people with a lot of different interests in mind. It’s not it’s not the best formula to rein in deficit spending, for sure.
Adam Taggart 21:30
Right. Can we deficit spend at these levels, say through the election and or beyond? If you think I mean, I think we can. But sorry, let me just ask the second party. Can we do that? And get inflation down below? 2%?
Adam Kobeissi 21:43
Oh, yeah. Well, I, you know, I, it’s a very tough question to answer, right, because there’s so many moving parts. But I think, the deficit spending issue, we could get away with it for a couple years, maybe even a few years. But I think the point is, it’s about getting on a sustainable path. Right? You have to think when it comes to these broad based macroeconomic trends, deficit spending, you know, long term interest rates, anything involving a long time horizon, you’re not thinking about what this means in a year or two, you’re think about what it means in five or 10 years, because what we do now sets the framework for that, right. So can we get inflation at 2% and still be issue trillions of dollars of treasury bills and bonds to cover deficit spending? Probably. Yeah. I mean, I think there’s definitely a path to that it may even involve a recession. But is that does that mean that everything’s okay, I don’t think so. I still think that we need some sort of reform.
Adam Taggart 22:37
Okay, that’s a good segue into the next question I was going to ask you, which is looking at a recent tweet that you put out on Twitter slash no x. So you basically provide a litany of challenging events that have occurred since just June 2023. Right. So what in the past four months or so. US debt comes closest to defaulting on debt, or US comes closest to defaulting on its debt and decades. SPEAKER The House removed for the first time in history. war breaks out in the ISRAEL PALESTINE conflict. mortgage interest rates hit their highest since year 2000. The US borrows over $2 trillion for deficit spending. I’d also note on that it’s the first year we’ve ever spent over a trillion dollars in interest on the national debt service. Hawaiian wildfires burned 17,000 acres of land, OPEC issues surprise, voluntary oil production cuts, oil prices rise to the highest in over a year to $95 a barrel. They didn’t they did did come down. But they’re now coming back up again. United Auto Workers strikes against Ford, GM and still Qantas. And we so you say look, we’re witnessing history every day. Now. I mean, all those things that I just listed off there on your list have happened in the past four months or so. My question to you is, which of these do you think? Well, I’d love any sort of, you know, you obviously package those things together for a reason. So if you want to sort of expound on why you did that, and then secondly, you know, which of these do you think will influence events the most over the coming year?
Adam Kobeissi 24:18
Yeah, well, I grouped all those together, because these are all been things that in the past, like if they were to occur, it would be the event of the year, right, like the Speaker of the House being removed would have been news for a month now. The next day, you don’t even hear about it anymore, because there’s so many other headlines. And, I mean, what does this mean going forward? What are the important things going forward? I think a lot of this is still focused around, you know, higher interest rates, higher deficit spending, they all kind of go hand in hand in a way to a trillion dollars in interest expense per year, but what it means going forward and also, I will know the s&p is only down about 8% from its recent high despite all those events happening over the last See, my interest is incredible. It’s still up what 10% or so for the year? Yeah, I mean that this is probably the most resilient market in recent history. I mean, there, there has just been if you’re a bear in this market, there has been every single reason to fall. But at best, you’re getting close to correction territory, not even bear market territory. So what it means going forward, and that’s why we have been bearish for the last three to four weeks of the s&p. But broadly this year, we’ve still been calling for higher equity valuations. And I think there’s people are finally realizing the economy, the stock markets, not the economy, stocks can go up, even if you see these headwinds, even if you see economic weakness, even in a recession, you could have the market go up, you can have a bear market rally, there’s so many different ways that the market can go up even with negative headlines. And I think that’s something that many people have forgotten. So looking ahead, I mean, I think the near term situation into early next year, we’re still seeing just this is a healthy technical correction, we’ve been calling for the s&p to go towards 4000 to 4100. We got to 4200 on on last week, it’s or 40, I think was 4220 was a low, you know, we could see another leg down. But ultimately, I think just there’s a lot of dry powder on the sidelines, a lot of trillion dollars has gone into money market funds since 2020. And I still think there’s an element of FOMO in the market, right? Like even with all these negative headlines, people are still like, you know, maybe I should buy the dip in these tech names, I should buy the dip in energy when oil prices pull back on a weekly basis, because we were coming off this 10 plus year bull run in the 2010s. So, you know, I think there will be a lot there will be volatility, I think that’s certain. But I do think that ultimately, equities are going to keep kind of pushing higher over the medium term into early to mid 2024.
Adam Taggart 26:58
Okay. I have had a number of people on this channel recently, who agree with you, some of them less, more reluctantly than others. But but, you know, they just talk to Ed Yardeni, whose video will have launched the day before this one, Adam, and he’s got a price target of like 4600, on the s&p for the end of the year, Darius Dale who was on recently has that same price target, or at least he did when he was on the channel two weeks ago. And then several other people who really actually, you know, are much more concerned about the fundamental data that you and I have been talking about, and probably still will talk about in a bit. But they’re saying looking at it doesn’t necessarily mean that the market, you know, has to reflect that immediately. And for a lot of reasons, technical and otherwise, they’re calling for the market to power higher from here into the end of the year. And I think it’s always worth noting that whether you’re a bear or a bull, right, you always should have, you know, some part of your portfolio hedged against your primary thesis being wrong here. And there’s lots of lots of reasons to be bearish, as you just said, right. And if you decide to take a bearish position, just be open to the possibility of what Adam is saying here that, you know, hey, the market might actually surprise you. And if it does, just make sure you’re positioned in a way that you’re not exposed to lose too much of your money. If Adam indeed is right here about where things go in the near to medium term. All right. I want to ask you about what you think the odds for recession are. But before I do, let me read another litany of yours, because to me, I think this is almost the more important or more, the more interesting and definitely, I think a more important conversation to have. I put this under the title of maybe this is the term you used for it, which is how can the average person afford to get by right and hear the litany of things that you would you’d put that out there. The average payment on a new home is now at a record $2,900 a month. The average house is now renting for a record $1,900 a month. The average new car payment is now at a record $740 per month. The average used car payment is now at a record $530 per month. The average student loan payment is now $500 A month, the average gallon of gas is now nearing $4 per gallon again, the average household credit card balance is now at a record 7300 The average household will have $0 of excess savings by the end of this quarter. You then say to put this into perspective, if the average person owns a new house, has a new car and pays off student and credit card debt. That costs around $5,100 A month that’s approximately 90% of median pre tax household income. This is a crisis All right, so brass tacks forget about what the markets are doing for a moment. Because honestly, it’s a it’s a relatively small minority of households that own the vast majority of financial assets anyways, right, but just for real people just living their lives trying to get by. I mean, that long list I just mentioned, I mean, almost everything was at a record high cost. And we’re not at record high wages, certainly not at record high real, real wages, real wages have basically flatlined forever. So how does this resolve?
Adam Kobeissi 30:32
Yeah, so I like the first mentioned that stuff, you know, the market is a very small steps, people that have a lot of money in the market, or a lot of their, their net worth in the market is a very, very small subset of the population. And just because of the stock market goes up, that doesn’t necessarily mean that everybody else is doing great. And I think right now, and you know, what’s interesting is a lot of people will say, the housing, you know, in the 80s, and the 90s, we had mortgage rates for 15% or 1012. Everything, double digits, right. But what’s interesting is housing affordability right now is lower than it was then. And it’s actually at an all time low, according to many, many research reports from even Goldman Sachs or a large lot of large banks, we are actually at the lowest affordability ever, right. And that’s because you have high prices with high rates. And I think that’s something that for, I really believe that affordability is going to continue to get worse, which is why I’m concerned for just about anyone that’s just trying to get by right that’s trying to buy a house first time homebuyers. It’s such a bad time to be a first time homebuyer. And why do I say that affordability is going to get worse in the housing sector. It’s largely a product of supply, right, higher the higher prices that we’re seeing right now. And then the lack of affordability is, I mean, 90% of borrowers have a rate below 5%, I think it’s about 30%, or below 3%. So there are a lot of people that are not paying 2900 a month for their house, they’re paying much less, they’re locked into these 30 year mortgages from when money was basically free three years ago. And those people might be doing fine. But the longer and longer that this goes on, the more people you have that are trying to either get their first time home or their their, their whatever, whatever it may be, right, they’re taking on more debt, they’re looking to buy their next car, or they’re, they’re looking to lease the next car or rent their next hill, whatever it may be. The more time that goes on, the more people that join that camp, right. And if existing, like existing home sales right now are at their lowest since 2010. And actually the price, the median President existing home is about to go above the median price of a new home. That’s that hasn’t happened since 2005. So I just think with the fed with with the amount of people that are locked into low rates, low mortgages, until you see rates come down, actually, I don’t think prices are going to come down substantially, unless there’s some major event that causes foreclosures are people to start selling their homes. But why would they unemployment is historically low, and people are locked into low rates, right. So you could watch, I think without seeing a spike in unemployment or a drop in interest rates. Unfortunately, affordability is going to keep getting worse for now.
Adam Taggart 33:18
Yeah, so I’ve talked to a number of housing analysts recently. And I would say that, that maybe the majority of them are concerned that there could be some triggers, that could bring prices down. I mean, obviously won’t be a recession with job losses, right, which I think you would agree if the if that were to happen that would that would, you know, pull prices down with it. Once you’ve got the dynamic of the Airbnb phenomenon and just just the rental, you know, buying rental real estate market phenomenon, where if those, if those folks don’t have a cheap, fixed mortgage, right now, that properties that might have been cash flowing, may now be becoming, you know, cash drains. And if people are getting an EMI, there’s, I think it’s something like half of all Airbnbs properties were bought in the past year and a half. So if that reverses, all of a sudden, potentially you get you know, lots of inventory coming in, there’s a lot of things like that, that could be triggers, right? Who knows what’s gonna happen, we’re gonna figure it out from here. But even just the longer we last here, in the status quo, you know, the more current existing homeowners who I hate to say it the aging population, right, there will be deaths, right. So you know, there will be homes that just have to be sold because the heirs want to sell the house to distribute amongst themselves. There will be your usual divorces or moves or whatnot, or people just losing their jobs and having to sell and housing is priced at the margin, right. So it’s the last house to sell. That sets the comps for all the homes in the neighborhood right. So that process is happening but me they’d be much more slowly right now, because inventory is so tight, but it is still happening. So the longer and higher for longer kind of works against the housing market, too. So anyways, we’ll see. But assuming for a second it doesn’t, right, and we just stay at these super high level of unaffordability. I just want to go back to my question, I’m sorry to put like the, the weight of the American consumer on your shoulders here, Adam, but like, how does this end? I mean, let me phrase it this way. Prior to the year 2000, at the end of 2019. If if you would ask me, Hey, how many people do you know who could like absorb a 20 to 25% increase in their cost of living over the next couple of years? Yeah, I would say relatively few. Right. And certainly back in 2019, we saw those surveys that said, you know, 60% of Americans can’t come up with $400 in a crisis, or you know, whatever, right. And then, of course, you know, we had the pencil back, and we had the explosion and inflation and cost of living. And I would say the average cost of living for the average household is probably up north of 35% or so since the beginning of 2020. Without a commensurate jump in home income. So like, Where does this end? Does this resolve in any sort of positive way where we get back to some sort of baseline that works for everybody? Or are we hurtling towards some sort of breaking point here? Yeah,
Adam Kobeissi 36:30
I mean, it’s hard to see some miracle situation happen where everyone is, all of a sudden houses are affordable, everyone’s back to normal. And I mean, you. One way that could happen, right, as you mentioned, would be something that happens with wage growth, where wages catch up to the increased cost of living. But then once once you have wage growth back on the rise, you bring back in the situation of what about inflation, right? Or wage growth might mean a spike in inflation. And the Fed was actually trying to avoid inflation, entrenchment and wages, which is, which is basically a concept of where inflation is high for a prolonged period of time that wages go up. And then inflation is kind of baked into the economy, because you can’t really lower people’s wages significantly, once they’ve been raised for for a decent amount of time. So now, to answer your question, I think you are going to need some sort of a trigger. Right. And I what that get that could still be a year down the road, that could be two years down the road. But I think Americans and consumers in general, are still borrowing at record pace. I mean, we haven’t talked about credit card debt, which is that over a trillion now for the first time ever. And I think right now, I mean, I’ve said this many times, Americans are quote, unquote, fighting inflation with credit card debt or other forms of debt, right. And
Adam Taggart 37:50
which has a terminus, right, there’s only so much debt a household can take on before it either can’t take on any more debt, because then it can’t service the debts that it has. Or it can’t take any more debt, because the creditor says no moss. Right. Right,
Adam Kobeissi 38:04
exactly. And that’s why I’m watching stuff like credit card debt and auto loans. These are loans that have much higher rates and a mortgage than and your you had to make a monthly payment on your credit card debt with a 25% interest rate. I mean, that’s where we’re at. Now, that’s something that could start to trickle down a little bit, right. If you can’t pay your credit card debt, well, then maybe you won’t be able to pay your car payment. And maybe you won’t be able to pay your mortgage, even if you’re, you’re locked into a lower rate if you’re borrowing. And also, we just threw another another stone in here, which is student loan payments, right? They just resumed this month for the first time since the pandemic, as I mentioned, $500 a month in student loans is that is the average payment on these households. And a lot of that is concentrated in the younger households, right, or people that are looking for their first home. These people don’t even have an extra $500 a month now to spend on student loans. Right. So I agree with what you were saying. And I think what other guests have said that there is going to need to be some trigger, and something will definitely trigger a correction in the housing market. But I just don’t think that’s something that’s going to happen soon. I think that’s maybe a year maybe more down the line. Until then I just think if affordability is going to keep declining into 24. All right,
Adam Taggart 39:17
I’m sorry, I’m gonna go back to my question you again, just to try to dig into this because I think this is such a fascinating and important topic where housing aside for a moment, yes, there might be some trigger there that will will continue to complicate the situation here or exacerbate the situation. But um you just take this to its terminus, right where you said consumed, the vast majority of consumers are now funding their their lifestyle on plastic, right. And that has an end point. And you know, as long as these these record numbers keep hitting more and more record high levels. You know, essentially consumers are going to have to crimp and crimp and crimp are spending right, especially once they start getting cut off by lenders, right? Where the majority consumer spending driven economy. So we play this game long enough, we’re going to start seeing the economy suffer, right? Because people are just not going to be able to buy as much. Right. So or, you know, and I would think that that would begin to create sort of an economic crisis, right? Or we get to a social crisis, where, you know, we’ve seen this happen in other countries, and hopefully doesn’t happen here. But you know, where people just say, Look, I’m no longer able to keep a roof over my family’s head or feed them. And that’s when people sort of start taking to the streets, honestly, because they really have no other option. So, again, I’m just asking you to sort of speculate here, but it’s an important speculation, because I don’t necessarily see a lot of convincing arguments for how we’re going to avoid one of those two, I’d love to hear one. But I’m curious what your outlook is.
Adam Kobeissi 41:03
I mean, that’s great point, I think I think that’s, that’s right. Now, everyone thinks that once you get to 2%, inflation, that’s it right time to party that we’re good. And that’s
Adam Taggart 41:17
fed pivots and rates come down, and it’s sunshine and rainbows and the stock market goes up for another 10 years straight. Yeah,
Adam Kobeissi 41:22
that’s exactly right. So I think so. Could you have a soft landing, which means you get inflation at 2%? Without a recession? Sure. But does that mean that a year from then you don’t have a recession? No. Right? It is still, you still? And also we don’t have deflation? We just have disinflation so. So prices are not coming down. I think that’s a very, very common misconception. People think that with inflation down to 2%, all of a sudden prices come back down. No, they’re just going up 2%. And what they’ve already gone up by 20 30%, whatever it’s been over the last four years. Right. So I think you’re right, I think this ultimately, it something has to give right. And I don’t know what it will be, I don’t know when it will be I think it will, this is still gonna keep building up for the next few months or even years. But eventually, something’s gonna give and you can’t just keep borrowing and spending. And I don’t think wage growth is going to catch up with with the recent surge in housing prices and inflation, in energy prices, just about anything. So I agree with what you’re saying, and that something eventually is going to happen. I just don’t know what it will be. Okay. And, you know, I’ve
Adam Taggart 42:33
been beating the drum for a long time now on this channel about the lag effect. And the fact that it’s real, it matters, we might have delayed the arrival of the full brunt of the lag effect by this deficit spending that you and I were talking about earlier. But in my opinion, to assume that just because it hasn’t arrived yet, that it’s not going to arrived. I think it’s foolish thinking. And and as we pursue this higher for longer strategy, and as interest rates are at these, I’ll call them very high relative yields. Right. You know, I mean, historically, at certain points, they’ve been a lot higher. But certainly on a relative basis, like you said, yeah, for the past 20 years, right. And for most of the past 20 years, debt was almost free. I mean, it was ridiculously cheap. Now, it’s not and it has changed in a very short period of time. So, you know, can’t can so so basically, you know, my gut feel but but more importantly, the take of a lot of people I interview on this channel is is, look, there was a there’s a cost of debt, above which this economy just can’t function sustainably and things start breaking. I would say a number of the people that interview would probably say, and we may have already passed it, right? We just haven’t figured out yet because the lag effect hasn’t fully arrived yet. So I’m curious, in your mind, given today’s cost of capital, can we sustain this? Or if we stay at this point, and the Fed doesn’t Pivot will eventually things that are systemically important start breaking? Yeah.
Adam Kobeissi 44:15
I mean, even if the Fed doesn’t pivot, that doesn’t mean that interest rates are done going up, right treasury yields, I think the tenure could easily go above 5%, even without another rate hike. So I think that’s the first important factor to know here. You can have mortgage rates go to 9%. Without another Fed rate hike. It’s entirely possible right? We haven’t the Fed hasn’t raised rates since since since July, but mortgage rates are up 150 basis points since then. So I think and something else to know on the lag effect and just in general, move higher and interest rates. Most adults are many adults, I should say in the US have not experienced inflation and interest rates at this level in their adult life. A lot of in The millions of adult Americans have not experienced this before. Right? And because the last time inflation was at this level, a level and interesting those level was almost 40 years ago. Right. So
Adam Taggart 45:10
I’m Gen X, you can see the white my beard, you know, I have very foggy memories of it as a young kid.
Adam Kobeissi 45:17
Yeah, exactly. So it’s, it’s a shock when you come out of. And what’s also added to the shock is, we came out of the biggest ever stimulus package in history, right and 2020, you handed out $4 trillion, while lowering interest rates to zero basically,
Adam Taggart 45:35
by a longshot. I’ve made the biggest package bio country mile, and
Adam Kobeissi 45:39
it’s not even close. Right? So the shock factor, and that’s also why I feel like a lot of people just got used to that lifestyle, right? They in 2020, extra savings were skyrocketing. Everybody had money, if you went to any place that was open, right, any retail mall or luxury goods store, there was a line out the door, right? And people were saving money like like there was no tomorrow there was it was crazy. It was like the best savings period of all time. And then now you have the exact opposite situation. Like I mentioned, the excess household savings are being depleted at a rate of over 100 billion a month, they’re probably going to hit zero by the end of the year. And it’s the exact opposite situation. So people are now compensating for that through more leverage, right, more credit card debt, more loans more, any way to kind of maintain what they’re used to. Right. But that’s not sustainable, as you mentioned. And I think once the lag effect is 100% real. And I also think with these macro economic trends, they don’t play out overnight, right? These trends take sometimes months years even longer to develop. But the longer you push us brushes under the rug, it’s a lot the worst that the ultimate correction that we see will be and I’m not talking about just stock I’m talking about for everyday Americans.
Adam Taggart 47:01
Yeah, great point. I’m going into it feel free to correct this, but from what you’re saying, I’m going into it. You feel like we are due for some sort of reckoning period at some point in the future? Oh, absolutely.
Adam Kobeissi 47:12
Yeah. Yep. Absolutely. There’s, I’m not saying that’s coming right now. Right, right point the future, maybe even a year down the road for now. Yeah. And I also think there’s so many other things going on. I mean, look at commercial real estate, right, that’s in the exact opposite situation is where residential real estate as in the in the strength of the residential market is actually masking the weakness of commercial real estate bear. We’re in a bear market and commercial real standing office buildings are non 30% in a year, the price I mean, that is incredible, right, like, think about how much of a contrast there is between residential and, and commercial. And also 70% of these loans that are that are backing these commercial properties that are now vacant vacancy rates are out that are now producing far less cash flows. And also seeing higher debt service costs. 70% of those loans are owned by regional banks, the exact banks almost collapsed six, seven months ago. Right. And I think that’s something else. That’s another headwind that is barely getting any attention, I think you’re gonna see this become a much bigger part of the crisis into 2024 2025, especially as 1.5 trillion of commercial loans need to be refinanced by 25. Right, that those loans were last issued years ago, when rates were maybe half or even a third of where they are now.
Adam Taggart 48:30
So you’re right, you’re seeing now you’re seeing my lag effect. Song here. So it sounds like you think that commercial real estate, there’s still more shoes to drop in there going forward, which impacts not just commercial real estate space, but it also goes back to the instability in the banking system that we saw earlier this year.
Adam Kobeissi 48:48
Absolutely. 100. Okay. That’s, that’s the least covered topic right now. It’s actually incredible how little attention it’s getting, I think, because there’s just so many other headlines.
Adam Taggart 48:57
Yeah. Well, I, I would agree with that. Although I think almost something else you mentioned might even be less lesser appreciated, which is you talked about the amount of commercial loans. Not just real estate, but let’s say corporate debt, that is coming up for maturity over the next couple years. I the latest stats I saw on it was it was like, you know, two thirds of a billion this year in 2023. It gets up to almost a billion next year, over a billion the year after that. So there’s this coming wave of of debt that’s going to need to be rolled over. And I think one of the things that has kept things muted right now is that understandably, companies borrowed to the hilt when debt was super cheap, and they’ve been sitting on those low loans on their balance sheet. But as soon as those start going into repayment, that’s when the Piper really has to be paid. And every month where quarter were higher for longer is a quarter closer to the reckoning where those companies you know, the rewrite of that debt for now. an insubstantial percentage of the corporate fleet may be fatal. You know, we talked about those zombie companies, right?
Adam Kobeissi 50:06
Yep. Yep. And by the way, you said a billion each year, I think, a trillion.
Adam Taggart 50:10
I’m sorry, I had mandatory. Yes, thank you. But a billion used to be a big number, but it’s not anywhere.
Adam Kobeissi 50:17
To build on what you’re saying. Yeah, that’s exactly. And that could be another point of weakness, right? where things start to spread from there, there’s always a trigger, right. And it’s hard to know what that trigger is going to be. But keep in mind, these are large, commercial developments, right? These are often billion dollar buildings bigger even, right, these office buildings in Manhattan that are 60 70%, empty. Now. Those, it’s effectively a company right there cash flowing a certain amount, every year, they’re loved, they lever up that build the project, then they cashless certain amount, and they take portion of that cash flow. So for debt that service costs, right? Well, if your business is 70%, empty, and no one’s people are only using it 30% of the time, but you have the same amount of debt, with higher interest rates on that, that and you and therefore your cash flows are lower. And keep in mind, the person that you owe the debt to almost collapsed six months ago, I don’t really understand. I don’t understand where the soft landing is in commercial real estate because there isn’t one it’s beyond it’s already a bear market. It’s a crisis. I think commercial real estate is going to become a far more focus and talked about topic and 2024, especially with
Adam Taggart 51:34
does it have potential to be kind of a spark that ignites the rest of the conflagration here or? Okay, for sure. For sure. Okay, all right. So, let’s see here. Not a lot of time left for a lot of great topics. Let me just ask you this. The feds options and it’s likely path from here. What do you see? Do you see the Fed hiking more?
Adam Kobeissi 52:00
No, I we’ve been we said in July that was the Fed last rate hike. We stood by that since then, I think it’s really now just a long pause, probably no rate cuts into maybe even the, you know, the second to third quarter of next year. I mean, we saw futures pricing and rate cuts beginning in September next year briefly after the last interest rate, fed interest rate decision whether they held the rates flat. And I will say I don’t really think even matters if they raise interest rates. Again, if the if the Fed that the peak Fed funds rate is 25 basis points higher. It’s I mean, it’s not the biggest thing right now. It’s just about how long they’re going to pause for. And I think that pause is going to be a lot longer than even what we’re facing right now. I think we could see rate cuts not begin until easily the third quarter of next year. So I think a very long fed pause is coming. Continued balance sheet reduction by the Fed and just kind of wait and see the Fed has this wait and see mentality, which is smart. And I will say if I was Jerome Powell, I would be playing at the same exact way now, right, they moved a little bit late. But now they have to play the cards that are dealt and they can’t do much more than what they’re doing in the current situation. But yeah, we’re calling for a long fed pause. And just as continue to wait and see with minimal guidance approach from the Fed, because they also just don’t really know what’s going to happen over the next year.
Adam Taggart 53:22
All right, and what do you what do you think is more likely that the Fed shifts policy because mission accomplished? We got inflation down to 2%? Or because, Dear God, something’s systemically important is breaking under the lag effect? And we got to step into rescue?
Adam Kobeissi 53:37
Yeah, that’s a great question. I think the Fed will comfortably get inflation to the 2.5 to 3% range. And I think it will, then from there, it will be interesting to see if they even maintain that strong 2%? Or will they kind of be happy with a 2.5% inflation rate? Right, maybe that’s the new normal, I don’t know. But to get down to 2%. And by their own words, they don’t see that until at least 2025. It’s hard to see a case where unless rate cuts can can unless rates can come down while also seeing inflation come down in late 24 or 25. It’s hard to see a case where they get to 2% without some sort of economic weakness, even a mild recession. I think that’s very difficult. So I think to get to two for 2% flat, especially in the current situation, there will probably be some sort of weakness in the economy that prompts that rather than just a super long fed pause and smooth sailing ahead.
Adam Taggart 54:36
Okay, Adam, so many questions, I want to ask you that we’re just going to have to save for the next time you’re on the program. Let’s just end here with your market outlook. So you gave a little bit of a nod to this, but where do you see markets going into the year into 2024? And are there any assets that you think are ticularly favorably favorably positioned right now? And are there other ones that you maybe would really counsel folks to avoid there?
Adam Kobeissi 55:06
Yeah. So we’re for just for some, for anyone that’s not familiar with the Kuwaiti letter, we focus on equities. So the s&p commodities, including natural gas, bonds, and gold, and then sorry, natural gas, gold and crude and in bonds, as well as some options. So oh, you know, I kind of get my outlook on s&p earlier, just a natural correction right now with healthy, steady push higher, healthy and quotes, but you know, resilient market higher. But I think commodities are incredibly interesting, we haven’t had a chance to talk about that, besides energy resources, really. But we’ve been doing great trading commodities, and all of our trades, we take a fundamental and technical viewpoints, we kind of take a blended approach. And when both of those situations kind of align, that’s when we have more conviction. So commodities, I think oil prices are higher, I think gold is heading lower. And I think that’s like I mentioned, because of higher rates and stronger dollar, we don’t even talk about the dollar, but that’s another thing. And then natural gas has also been incredibly volatile, a great opportunity, we’ve been playing it to both directions. and bond markets, we’re still seeing, we still call it for the 10 year to 5%. So it’s interesting, we’ve been raising our target all year, we three months ago, we were calling for 4.5%. Then we said 4.75. And it got there like one day, which was insane. And then it got almost sore. 5%. Now we’re back off. But I think interest rates are just treasury yields that specifically are gonna keep pushing higher into your head.
Adam Taggart 56:41
Okay, and do you see that sort of as a through 2024? And the reason why I ask is because are one of the reasons why I asked is, before this year, we never had more than two consecutive years of down performance. For treasuries. Now, we’re going to log in unprecedented third year. Are you thinking we’re going to log an extra unprecedented fourth year on top of that?
Adam Kobeissi 57:08
In 24? You know, it’s so hard to say, right, because there’s so many moving parts?
Adam Taggart 57:14
Well, we’ll be back on so don’t worry. Yeah, we’ll
Adam Kobeissi 57:16
treasuries be higher and 24? I don’t know. If I had to bet I would, I would I don’t think that the 10 year is going to 8% or something crazy. You know, like, I just think that we’re in a higher for longer Treasury yield environment. But, you know, 2024, there’s so many moving parts, I can’t even begin to speculate where the 10 year will be a year from now. Okay,
Adam Taggart 57:38
so your your thoughts on higher bond yields right now is really kind of an end of the year call? Yeah. into early 24. Is is our call? Okay. Early? 2024. Okay, great. And then just real quick, because you mentioned it dollar.
Adam Kobeissi 57:51
Yeah, the dollar, the DX y, the US Dollar Index is just complete straight uptrend. I mean, it doesn’t even pull back, like you’ll see a date and a pullback on a daily basis if you’re lucky. And I think the US Dollar Index could go to 110 easily, especially with longer fed pause again, which is in turn a little bit more hawkish than what markets were expecting. It’s incredible to think that markets were expecting three rate hikes or three rate cuts this year. Like think about that four months, five months ago, we were the markets were expecting three rate cuts. Now we’re not talking about rate cuts for potentially 789 months. I think the US dollar is going to continue to price in the higher for longer case, and it’s going to keep pushing the X Y higher. That’s largely our thesis behind a bearish gold trade that we’ve been taking on recently.
Adam Taggart 58:41
Okay, yeah, one of the things that just surprised me all year is the market was super confident that the Fed was going to I mean, for two years, or almost two years. Now that market has long five, okay, the Feds gonna pivot tomorrow, right? It’s gonna pivot, it’s gonna pivot, the market has always had to shift its expectations, right, the Fed has won every one of those chicken fights. And yet, markets are up substantially this year. Right, right. I mean, it hasn’t rained on the markets parade. Now, granted, you could say that’s because it got really oversold at the end of last year or whatever. But it’s amazing to me how wrong the market has been proven against the Fed this year and had to change its expectations and still prices of power higher.
Adam Kobeissi 59:21
Yeah, you know, it’s funny as the markets have really doubted the Fed Up until now, like this is the first time the markets are really saying alright, maybe the Fed never even said they were cutting rates this year, like literally not once. They just said the exact opposite. They said we’re probably we don’t see your interest rate cuts in 2023. So they’re doing exactly what they said. I just think the Fed lost some credibility. And now maybe they’re gaining it back. I don’t know markets are really starting to listen more to what the Fed is saying and we’re pricing it in. So once a long Fed policy is priced in, then you can start to play play play the markets from there, right. You could see it could become bullish if the Fed starts cutting in May instead of September. Next year, right, so right now we’re still in the process of the pricing and how long interest rates will be elevated for.
Adam Taggart 1:00:05
Okay, so you said, we’re wrapping up here by saying, you know, where we started where you said the economy and the markets have been much more resilient than expected. You know, you and I talked about the specter of lag effects and whatnot. I’m going to guess at some point, you see that a recession, maybe has some probability of arising? Probably not in early 2024, given your current outlook there. But how about at some point in 2024?
Adam Kobeissi 1:00:33
Yeah, I mean, maybe in late 24, you start to see some weakness. I don’t think in the first half. Maybe when the you know, a lot of time when the Fed starts cutting rates, it’s not people think when the Feds cutting rates, you’re, it’s, you know, it’s at your your free sailing, right. A lot of times, that’s when the recession comes, right. So
Adam Taggart 1:00:51
yeah, and markets tend to perform really poorly when fed start cutting rates after big hiking.
Adam Kobeissi 1:00:57
Yeah, that’s exactly right. So I think in late 24, you’ll start to see some weakness, early 24, I think we’re just going to be in a very similar situation that we’re in right now.
Adam Taggart 1:01:06
Okay, great. Adam, it
Adam Kobeissi 1:01:08
has been wonderful having you on here. For folks that have really enjoyed this discussion. Maybe this is the first time they’re meeting you and hearing about your work, where can they go to follow you? Yeah, they can. So we publish our weekly report for subscribers on our website, which is the kobeissiletter.com. For sure, it’ll be in the description below. But we also are on Twitter and Instagram and just about every social media platform at @Kobeissiletter. So we’re always trying to publish research insights, almost on an hourly basis these days online, for free. And then on our website, we have more of a premium service where we’re trading, tracking our call to performance, everything’s very transparent posted with our full performance every year. Last year, we made 86%. And this year, it’s been a great year. So we’re, our motto is just stay objective, follow the technicals, follow the fundamentals, use a mixture of both, and manage risk and just trade objectively. And I think it’s been a great market for that. And I think it will continue to be a great market for that.
Adam Taggart 1:02:05
Awesome. All right. Well, you’re very prolific, I follow you on a number of the social media channels you mentioned, and I really enjoy your content. It’s why we put you in here. Alright, so yes, when I edit this, Adam, I’ll put up the links that you mentioned on the screen so folks know exactly where to go, folks, links will also be in the description below the video too. So if you just want a one click way to get to those resources, you’ll have it down there. Alright, just in wrapping up, I got two quick things to let folks know about. And then I want to give you the last word here. So folks, just a reminder, that Wealthion online fall conference on Saturday, October 21 is coming up like a freight train now were just only a little bit more than a week away from it. If you missed the expiration of the early bird price discount, which was our lowest price discount that just expired this past weekend, don’t kick yourself too hard, we are still offering a last chance to save price, which is lower than the full price for the tickets. So if you register this week, before Sunday, you’ll lock in that last chance to save price. To learn more about the conference as well as to register, go to wealthion.com/conference. And I think Adam did a really phenomenal job in delivering the context for our weekly recommendation here on this channel, which is, you know, it’s a very uncertain confusing time for the professionals. But obviously, for just regular investors who are just trying to protect their capital, hopefully prudently grow it. But most importantly, don’t want to become roadkill, to the uncertainty that’s out there, highly recommend most of you watching work under the guidance of a good professional financial advisor, one who takes into account all of the macro issues that Adam outlined here. And to be honest, not that many do, it’s a relatively small minority, that actually do the work to follow all of the things that Adam talked about here. If you’ve got a good one who’s doing that for you, great stick with them. But if you don’t, or you’d like to get a second opinion from one who does feel free to skip schedule, a free consultation with the financial advisors endorsed by Wealthion. To do that, just fill out the short form at wealthion.com. Only takes a couple of seconds, these consultations are totally free. There’s no commitment to work with these guys. They just offer it as a free public service to help as many people as possible position as prudently as possible in advance of the potential shoes to drop that that again that Adam has noted here. If you’ve enjoyed having Adam here for his inaugural interview on Wealthion, and I really have, please let him know that you’d love to have him come back on the channel and to do that, show your support by hitting the like button, then clicking on the red subscribe button below. As well as that little bell icon right next to it. Adam, it has been wonderful. I’d love to just any last parting bits of advice you want to give the viewers here.
Adam Kobeissi 1:04:53
This has been an honor to be on the show with you. Let me great show legendary investors have come on this. It’s an honor I want to join you. And I, you know, I hope everybody kind of got took a little bit away from this. And hopefully, I’ll rejoin in the future and answer any questions people have below. But I think, you know, my goal is just to take complicated insights and complex, complicated situations, but make them simple and make them easy to understand, and ultimately make an actionable thing that you can potentially invest or trade based on. So, again, it’s been an honor to join you. And, you know, I look forward to any future appearances.
Adam Taggart 1:05:28
Great. Well, I look forward to having you back on in the future, too. And, you know, to testament to the quality of your work, Adam, that you’re on here, but also, it is nice to see new blood coming into the space and people who can communicate this to all audiences, but but in particularly, you know, younger audiences coming into this who don’t have, you know, I think what, they just don’t have a life history of the investing history, that a lot of it, older generations, like x and the boomers have and this channel is, is heavy on that side of the scale. So it’s nice to have you come in and add some opportunity for younger voices to come in and hear that simplified, simplified insights from somebody of their generation. So thanks. Thanks so much, and kudos to what you’re doing.
Adam Kobeissi 1:06:10
I appreciate that. All right. It’s
Adam Taggart 1:06:12
been a pleasure, Adam. Thanks again, everyone else. Thanks so much for watching.