U.S. House will vote today to pass the Senate’s compromise bill to reopen the federal government following the record 43-day shutdown. The bill would reinstate federal workers fired during the shutdown, guarantee back pay for furloughed employees and prevent further layoffs through the end of January.
In the 2025 edition of its World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) declares that the Age of Electricity has arrived. While electricity accounts for only 21% of global final energy consumption, it is the key source of energy for over 40% of the global economy and the main source of energy for most households. The report outlines three main scenarios: a Current Policies Scenario (CPS), a Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and a Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). IEA predicts global electricity demand will rise 40% by 2035 in the CPS and STEPS, and by more than 50% in the NZE scenario.
After estimating the U.S. added 42,000 jobs in October in its 11/5 report, ADP said on Tuesday that its “real-time” estimates of U.S. payrolls have turned sharply lower, with U.S. firms shedding more than 11,000 jobs a week through late October. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson observed, “The labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month…Any further labor market weakness could push the Fed to increase its rate cuts.”
Ahead of CPI and PPI, price tracker OpenBrand reports that U.S. consumer durables and personal goods inflation decelerated in October for the first time in three months. OpenBrand’s CPI measure rose 0.22% in Oct. following a 0.48% increase in Sept. Separately, rent tracker CoStar reports the national average rent declined 0.31% in October (largest Oct. drop in more than 15 years).
Fitch reports the share of U.S. subprime borrowers at least 60 days past due on their auto loans rose to 6.65% in October, an all-time high (data begins 1994).
Data deluge: Jobless Claims Thursday (est. 225k—first report since 9/19); CPI Thursday (est. +0.2% m/m & +3.0% y/y); PPI Friday (est. +0.2% m/m & +2.5% y/y); and Retail Sales Friday (est. -0.2%).
Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%, S&P futures +0.35% and Nasdaq futures +0.6%. 10-year Treasury yield -3.7bps (4.079%). DXY dollar index +0.13%, spot gold +0.2% and spot silver +1.0% (gold/silver ratio at 79.9).
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