Wealthion Macro Bites-The Fight For Hormuz
Iranian and U.S. negotiators are gearing up for Tuesday meetings in Qatar, though it remains unclear whether the talks will be face-to-face or through Qatari mediators. Meanwhile, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi reiterated Iran’s determination to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Gharibabadi said Iran wants to work out a tolling agreement with Oman, but stated Iran will move forward with its own plans “if for any reason Oman is not interested in doing so.”
The Japanese yen accelerated its decline to touch a Tuesday low of 162.41/USD (1st 162 breach since ‘86). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated authorities may respond to further weakness, "It all comes down to being ready to respond appropriately to currency moves at any time, including the possibility of decisive measures, as confirmed at a recent online meeting with the United States.”
The Energy Institute’s 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy estimates global energy demand rose 1.7% in ’25, with global electricity consumption +3%. China’s electricity consumption rose 5%, most of any major economy (and equivalent to Germany’s entire annual consumption). Global solar generation expanded by 30%, and installed battery storage capacity soared 66%. Despite renewables progress, global carbon emissions still increased 1.1%, led by a 3.2% increase in the U.S. (due to 13% increase in coal-fired power), a 0.9% increase in India and a 0.3% increase in China.
In its ’26 survey of 90 central banks, public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds ($10T AUM), the London-based Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum reports that for the first year on record, more of the world’s central banks plan to cut dollar allocations than increase them in next 10 years. Additionally, 79% of central banks (and 60% of public funds) believe the global monetary system is transitioning towards a "multipolar" world, with gold and the Renminbi most favored for diversification.
The DRC’s strategic minerals regulator (Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets) had previously set cobalt export caps of 96.6kt for 2026 and 2027, with 87kt distributed pro-rata among major producers and 9.6kt earmarked for the government’s strategic reserve. On Thursday, ARECOMS announced any export quotas allocated for first half ’26 which remain unused by June 30 will be immediately forfeited to the government cobalt reserve.
With S&P futures little changed this morning, the S&P 500’s 14.3% quarter-to-date gain stands as the strongest quarterly performance in six years. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has soared a (quarterly) record 81% in Q2.
Week ahead: U.S. employment report Thursday @ 8:30 am (est. payrolls +110k & 4.3% unemployment rate), Canadian markets closed Wednesday for Canada Day, and U.S. markets closed Friday for July 4th. Today is the deadline for the Commerce Department to submit an updated Section 232 assessment and recommendation regarding refined copper tariffs.
Euro Stoxx 50 +1.25%, S&P futures +0.155 and Nasdaq futures +0.25%. DXY dollar index +0.3%, spot gold +0.45% and spot silver +1.3%.
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