Wealthion Macro Bites 6-23
The U.S. will waive Iranian sanctions (incl. blockaded oil exports) for 60 days following Swiss peace talks in which Vice President Vance said a “good foundation” was laid for a final peace deal. Additionally, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi announced $12B in frozen Iranian funds are set to be released as part of ongoing negotiations with the U.S.
Separately, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tuesday Iran has not met with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi and has no plan to allow the agency to inspect nuclear facilities damaged during the recent war, directly contradicting claims made by U.S. officials about progress on nuclear inspections, “Basically, there is no such procedure in this regard…and I think that current course is also very clear.”
After Bloomberg reported on Monday that Jiangxi Province authorities issued a preliminary and limited government land assessment of the massive Jianxiawo lithium mine (3% of global production), lithium prices in China slid nearly 10% (in 2 trading sessions) on speculation of the mine reopening. Following the Aug.’25 Jianxiawo shutdown, the most-active lithium carbonate future on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange more than doubled to a ’26 high over 200,000 yuan/t ($29,500/t). Prices currently trade at 157,000 yuan/t ($23,140/t).
Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson released a new national strategy statement for nuclear power in which Canada is looking to build up to 10 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years, sell Canadian-made reactors to more countries and double uranium exports. Calling for a “new civilian nuclear renaissance,” Hodgson stated, “If our goal is to double our grid and build a low-carbon economy in less than 25 years, there is no credible plan to do that without nuclear energy.”
The Department of Interior proposed looser rules for oil and gas drilling on federal lands, including lowering the cost of state wide bonds for (future plugging of) wells to $25k from (the Biden-era) $500k, shortening public comment periods in oil and gas permitting from 90 days to 10, and rolling back requirements curtailing methane emissions from oil and gas operations.
After selling a net $9.8B of F/X reserves in March, the Reserve Bank of India sold and additional $8.94B of reserves in April in its efforts to support the slumping rupee amid surging oil prices and higher global bond yields. Contrary to popular speculation, the Bank’s gold holdings remained unchanged from March through May at 880.52t. Despite the Bank’s efforts, the Indian rupee weakened to an all-time low of 96.965/USD on 5/20.
Liquidity watch: SpaceX shares were priced at $135 in their 6/11 IPO ($1.75T mkt. cap.), opened at $150, and traded to a 6/16 high of $225.64 ($3T mkt. cap.). Shares are trading at $148 ($2T mkt. cap) in Tuesday premarket trading after SpaceX mkt. cap. declined $400B on Monday alone (2nd largest single-day mkt. cap. loss on record).
Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%, S&P futures -1.25% and Nasdaq futures -2.6%. European bonds trading higher with yields falling 2bps-5bps across the board. 10-year Treasury yield -2.0bps (4.489%). DXY dollar index +0.25%, spot gold -1.55% and spot silver 4.4%.
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