Wealthion Macro Bites 6-10
After Iran shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command reports U.S. Navy and Air Force fighter jets struck Iranian air defense, ground control stations and surveillance radar sites near the Strait. In response, Iran fired missiles and drones at a U.S. base in Jordan and 21 other Gulf targets. The Apache downing has caused President Trump to reconsider further military action. In a statement, Trump noted, “They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them. Now they will have to pay the price.”
On Monday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 7037 (Developing Overseas Mineral Investments and New Allied Networks for Critical Energies DOMINANCE Act) to strengthen U.S. energy security, reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and build more resilient supply chains with trusted allies and partners. The DOMINANCE Act addresses China’s dominance in critical minerals by expanding cooperation with allies and partners, supporting strategic mineral and energy investments, strengthening U.S. energy diplomacy, and investing in the workforce and expertise needed to build secure, diversified, and resilient critical mineral supply chains.
China Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lin Jian reaffirmed that China’s months-long restrictions of rare earth exports to Japan will continue, despite U.S. pressures to lift the measures. Following tensions over contrasting Taiwan stances, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced in January an export ban to Japan of “dual-use materials” which could be used for military purposes.
As we expected, Reuters confirms India’s recent 150% increase in gold import tariffs (from 6% to 15%) is fueling sharp resurgence in gold smuggling, now expected to exceed 100t in 2026 (worth $14.35B implying $2.65B in lost tariffs and sales taxes). Estimates of Indian gold smuggling have fallen from 156t in ’23, to 69t in in ’24, to 20t in ’25. Smugglers can offer steep discounts because they do not pay taxes, import taxes and goods and services taxes totaling 18.45%. One bullion dealer noted, “There’s a margin of more than 2.5M rupees ($26,121.25) on bringing in a 1-kilo bar, which is roughly the size of an iPhone. It is natural that people will try to make quick bucks.”
Trafigura announced its subsidiary Nyrstar has secured a $105M grant from Australian, South Australian and Tasmanian governments to fund ongoing feasibility studies to upgrade and modernize the Port Pirie lead smelter in South Australia and a zinc smelter in Hobart (currently losing $15M/mo.).
Liquidity watch: Reuters reports the SpaceX IPO is now 3 ½ times oversubscribed ($250B of orders vs. $75B IPO). Separately, Reuters reports the U.S. Treasury is issuing more than $500B of T-bills per week. Stay tuned…
Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%, S&P futures -1.1% and Nasdaq futures -1.7%. European bond trading lower with yields rising 2bps-4bps across the board. 10-year Treasury yield +2.2bps (4.538%). DXY dollar index +0.1%, spot gold -2.6% and spot silver 2.3%. Brent futures +1.65% ($93.00) and WTI futures +1.9% ($89.88). CPI @ 8:30 am (est. +0.5% m/m & +4.2% y/y).
Did you know Wealthion offers a variety of services from free portfolio reviews to potential access to private placement investing in the real assets space? Become a Wealthion member and you'll also get exclusive videos, articles and market commentary on the sector for free! Join our Wealthion Community for FREE now by clicking below.