Wealthion Macro Bites 5-26

Written by The Wealthion Team | May 26, 2026 2:06:53 PM

Responding to ongoing (arbitrage) premiums of Comex copper futures over LME benchmarks, Trafigura Group was the largest party involved in orders to withdraw >51kt of copper ($700M) from U.S. and Asian LME warehouses on Friday (largest w/d since ‘13). More than 30kt of copper was ordered out of LME warehouses in New Orleans and Baltimore (likely headed to Comex warehouses and end buyers in the U.S.), and nearly 20kt was withdrawn form LME warehouses in Asia (likely headed to U.S. and Asian buyers). Comex copper premiums are attributed to market movements ahead of a potential U.S. copper tariff decision in late-June.

Reuters cites Chinese export data in highlighting that China has virtually halted exports to Japan of rare earth minerals such as dysprosium, terbium and yttrium (as well as specialty metal gallium) since December, following a Nov. ’25 diplomatic row over Taiwan. Beijing first tightened rare earth export controls to Japan (2^nd largest global magnet producer) in Jan. ’26, and then twice tightened controls in Feb., targeting major Japanese conglomerates such as shipbuilding and aero engine behemoth Mitsubishi. As a result, Japanese magnet makers such as Shin-Etsu have stopped taking orders for dysprosium-containing magnets.

In China’s worst mining disaster in 17 years, 82 people were killed in a gas explosion at the Liushenyu coal mine in China’s northern province of Shanxi on Friday. Chinese coking coal (and metals) futures surged on Monday and Tuesday as Shanxi authorities halted operations at 109 coal mines (accounting for 122Mt of annual capacity) ahead of China’s annual mining safely campaign due to commence June 1.

China’s aluminum industry is preparing for significant disruption to its raw materials supplies after Guinean Mines and Geology Minister Bouna Sylla said Guinea is finalizing plans to limit exports of its world-leading bauxite production as soon as June. Guinea’s bauxite shipments surged more than 25% in ’25 to 183Mt, contributing to a near 50% y/y decline in global bauxite prices. Minister Sylla also said Guinea will push miners to build domestic alumina refineries and will seek investors for a domestic aluminum smelter, stating global “supply mustn’t exceed demand.”

The WSJ highlights the gaping divergence between Friday’s 72-year low for the May U. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index (44.8 vs. 49.8 in Apr.) and stretched equity valuations, with the S&P’s Shiller CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted P/E ratio) at 40.8 (2^nd highest in 145 years) below only the Dec. ’99 dotcom peak, when U. of Mich. Sentiment was registering all-time highs.

Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, S&P futures +0.65% and Nasdaq futures +1.0%. 10-year Treasury yield -7.3bps (4.485%). DXY dollar index -0.2%, spot gold -1.4% and spot silver -2.7%. Brent futures +2.4% ($98.47) and WTI futures -4.3% ($92.68).

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