Wealthion Macro Bites 5-22
Heading into the Memorial Day weekend, conflicting signals emerged from the Iranian conflict. On Thursday, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported Tehran is in the process of responding to a new draft proposal from the U.S. which “has narrowed the gap to some extent.” However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry reiterated it wants commitments to end hostilities “on all fronts, including Lebanon” and unfreezing of all sanctioned Iranian assets. President Trump suggested Iran has “a couple of days” to reach agreement or U.S. strikes may resume.
Iranian Ambassador to France Mohammad Amin-Nejad told Bloomberg that Iran is discussing with Oman how to set up a permanent joint tolling system to formalize Iran’s control of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, “Iran and Oman must mobilize all their resources both to provide security services and to manage navigation in the most appropriate manner.” President Trump promptly responded, “We don’t want tolls. It’s international,” and Secretary of State Marco Rubio concurred, “It can’t happen. It would be unacceptable.”
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Head Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber warned full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the conflict ended immediately. “Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least 4 months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.”
In the ever-evolving Indonesian mining regulatory environment, Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto announced on Thursday that after meeting with “industry groups,” Indonesia will exempt nickel pig iron (NPI) and some refined palm products from its planned centralization of commodity exports beginning June 1. NPI constitutes the majority of Indonesian nickel exports ($16.4B in ’25), but ferronickel exports will still be subject to government control.
In the latest example of Chinese aluminum companies developing projects Africa’s bauxite-rich countries, state-owned Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) has agreed to invest $1B to develop a 1.2Mt per year alumina plant in Guinea. The Guinean government will receive a 5% stake “for free or at nominal cost” and have the option to enlarge that stake to as much as 35% “at market value.” Chinese smelters (which produce >50% of global aluminum) are focused on overseas expansion as domestic capacity nears a nationwide ceiling imposed to cap emissions.
Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, S&P futures +0.15% and Nasdaq futures +0.125%. European bond are trading higher, with yields falling 2.9bps (Switz.) to 6.5bps (Italy) across the board. 10-year treasury yield -2.0bps (4.550%). DXY dollar index +0.1%, spot gold -0.45% and spot silver -0.95%. Brent futures +2.25% ($104.75) and WTI futures +1.4% ($97.69).
U.S. markets closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
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