Wealthion Macro Bites 5-13
President Trump repeated his military threats against Iran ahead of his visit to China (Iran’s largest oil purchaser) saying Iran will either “make a good deal” with the U.S. or face devastation. Separately, the International Energy Agency noted global oil inventories are falling at a record pace and will continue to drop for months.
Exactly one day after Indian officials stated there were no plans to increase import duties on precious metals, the government imposed a 10% basic customs duty and a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on gold and silver imports, effecting a 150% increase in the precious-metal import duty from 6% to 15%. This move will instantly revive gold smuggling operations which had subsided in recent months.
Reuters reports China and the U.S. are considering extending a truce on Chinese rare earth export curbs at a leaders’ summit this week. Despite White House claims that China agreed to “effectively eliminate current and proposed controls on rare earth elements” at last October’s South Korea summit, Chinese customs data show exports of yttrium, dysprosium and terbium are still down 50% since controls were imposed in April ’25 (versus 12-mos. prior).
Stagflation watch: April U.S. headline CPI rose 3.8% y/y (10bps above est.) and 0.6% m/m (3-mos. annualized rate +7.44%). After energy, food prices rose and inflation spilled over to the services sector higher rental costs and airfares. CPI inflation is now above wage gains for the first time in 3 years, just as May U. of Mich. Sentiment (48.2) reached a new all-time low.
The U.S. Senate voted 51-45 to confirm Kevin Warsh’s nomination to a 14-year term on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. Warsh’s four-year term as Fed Chair requires a separate Senate vote, expected Wednesday. (Chair Powell’s second four-year term as Chair expires Friday.) Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday America has “an inflation problem. Inflation is going the wrong way, not just in oil-related and tariff-related things.”
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