Wealthion Macro Bites 5-11
On Sunday, President Trump swiftly rejected Iran’s response to the recent U.S. ceasefire proposal, “I don’t like it. Totally unacceptable.” Sticking points in Iran’s response continue to include Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, war damage compensation, end of Lebanon hostilities, and guarantees against future attacks. Separately, the British Defense Ministry announced Saturday the U.K. is deploying the HMS Dragon destroyer to the Middle East in preparation for a possible international mission to protect commercial shipping through the Strait.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday urged his nation to follow a wide range of measures to ease pressure on India’s F/X reserves amid the surge in global energy prices. Notably, Modi urged the Indian populace to avoid buying gold (2nd largest import after oil) for at least a year, “For a year, be it any function, we shouldn’t buy gold jewelry.” In 2025, Indian gold jewelry demand totaled 440t (1/3 of global total). Modi also urged reducing fuel usage by using public transportation, work-from-home and online meetings; reducing cooking oil consumption and cutting fertilizer usage by half; and reducing non-essential overseas travel for at least a year to save F/X.
In response to global demand for AI-related products and stockpiling ahead of rising input costs from Gulf hostilities, Chinese exports surged 14.1% y/y in April, far outpacing March’s 2.5% gain and nearly double the +7.9% consensus estimate. Despite a 25.3% increase in imports (vs. +15.2% est.), China’s trade surplus grew to $84.8B in April versus $51.13B in March. March exports to the U.S. rose 11.3% y/y bringing China’s trade surplus with the U.S. to $87.7B ytd.
The China Passenger Car Assoc. said on Monday that China’s domestic car sales fell for a 7th straight month in April declining 21.6% y/y to 1.4M vehicles. EV and plug-in hybrid sales fell 6.8% (4th straight month of declines) but accounted for a record 60.6% of total sales. In contrast, China’s overall car exports rose 80.2% y/y, with EV and plug-in hybrid exports surging 111.8%.
Following widespread industry outcry, Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia reversed course from Friday’s proposals to hike royalty rates on miners and institute export taxes on certain minerals (incl. coal) until an “ideal formulation” between government and miners can be devised, “After hearing input from the public and businesses, I will put this on hold to develop a good, mutually beneficial formula.” Stay tuned…
Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, S7P and Nasdaq futures little changed. European bonds trading lower by 3bps (Ger.) to 8bps (U.K.) across the board. 10-year Treasury yield +3.6bps (4.390%). DXY dollar index +0.1%, spot gold -0.9% and spot silver +1.0%. Brent futures +3.0% ($104.31) and WTI futures +3.1% ($98.33). [8 am ET]
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