Wealthion Macro Bites 4-16

The U.S. and Iran are considering extending their ceasefire (due to expire 4/21) for two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement. Mediators are trying to set up initial technical talks between the U.S. and Iran to address the most contentious issues (reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear enrichment) to pave the way toward the next round of negotiations between senior officials from both countries.

In its 2026 Survey, the Silver Institute estimates the silver market will face its sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3Moz, up slightly from a 40.3Moz deficit in ’25. Total mine supply is forecast to decline marginally, from 846.6Moz in ’25 to 844.1Moz in ’26. While total demand is forecast to decline 1.6% (from 1.130Boz to 1.112Boz), industrial demand is seen falling 3%, including a 19% decline in photovoltaic demand (from 186.6Moz to 151.0Moz) as manufacturers resort to thrifting or metal substitution amid sharply higher prices.

In a statement to the IMF’s steering committee, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed his support for a long-delayed revamp of the IMF’s quota resources and called on the World Bank to move quickly to support development of critical minerals projects. Bessent said he looks forward to the July ’26 expiration of the World Bank’s Climate Action Plan (focused on green energy projects) so the Bank can “immediately shift its myopic focus on climate and financing volumes to one that emphasizes high-quality, durable projects” that can better lift people out of poverty.

In an effort to monetize its minority stakes in in some of DRC’s largest mining assets (incl. Glencore’s Kamoto Copper and Chinese-operated Tenke Fungurume), DRC’s state miner Gecamines expanded its copper commitment to the U.S., pledging 500kt for sale through its Swiss trading partner Mercuria (up from 100kt announced in Jan.).

Sprott launched a Rare Earths ex-China ETF (REXC) designed to track performance of the Nasdaq Sprott Rare Earths ex-China Index (NSREXC). With an initial market cap of $2M, the ETF’s largest holdings are Lynas Rare Earths (21.1% of NAV), MP Materials (19.6%), USA Rare Earth (6.2%), Iluka Resources (5.1%), Arafura Rare Earths (5.1%) and Lindian Resources (5.0%).

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