Wealthion Macro Bites 3-16

On Friday, the U.S. conducted extensive bombing of Iranian military installations on Kharg Island, the critical depot of 90% of Iran’s oil exports. President Trump commented, “For reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil infrastructure on the Island.” The Trump administration is working to secure global support to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, “Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships…to keep the Strait open and safe.”

On Friday, the Pentagon deployed the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship and 2,500 marines from the 31^st Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East. While speculation of the marines’ mission includes taking control of Kharg Island, Pentagon officials said positioning the Marines offshore Iran would allow “commanders to respond quickly to threats against commercial vessels, diplomatic facilities or civilians in the region.”

On Sunday, Tehran lashed out across the Middle East launching four ballistic missiles and six drone attacks on UAE and striking Israel, Iraq and other U.S. allies as President Trump reiterated his call for global powers to join the fight to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Asked on Sunday’s “Meet the Press” whether the waterway was safe, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright responded, “No. No It’s not.”

Disruptions to outbound shipments of metal and incoming supplies of alumina feedstock (due to Hormuz shipping standstill) have caused Aluminum Bahrain BSC (Alba) to initiate production shutdowns of 19% of total output capacity at the world’s largest single site aluminum smelter.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported China’s January/February industrial production rose 6.3% y/y, up from December’s +5.2% (vs. +5% est.). Retail sales increased 2.8% up from December’s +0.9% (vs. +2.5% est.) and the biggest gain since Oct. ’25. Fixed asset investment expanded 1.8% (vs. estimates for a 2.1% decline) after contracting 3.8% in 2025. Infrastructure investment surged 11.4% as policy support (including a new financing tool for banks to fund key projects) took effect. At the same time, China’s nationwide jobless rate rose to 5.3% (from Dec.’s 5.1%).

Central banks will take center stage this week with the RBA (Mon.), Fed (Wed.), and ECB/BOE/BOJ (Thurs.) all holding policy meetings.

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