Wealthion Macro Bites 2-4-26

Credit watch: Anthropic’s launch of new capabilities for its AI Claude Cowork platform (aimed at automating complex legal, sales and data-analysis tasks) accelerated fears that AI advancements are threatening established enterprise software models. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 4.6% on Tuesday (sixth consecutive day of decline) extending January’s 15% plunge (worst monthly decline since ’08). The issue here is that U.S. Business Development Companies (such as Blue Owl, Ares, Trinity and Sixth Street) have roughly 20% of their capital invested in the software sector. Concerns of software exposure in the general private credit market are weighing on the entire sector. Stay tuned…

In other credit news, the U.S. office CMBS delinquency rate has spiked to a record 12.3%, (1.6% worse than the GFC peak).

The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is working to issue (this week) a general license allowing companies to produce oil and gas in Venezuela. In January, OFAC authorized US companies to sell, store and refine Venezuelan oil, and on Tuesday it issued a separate license allowing sale of U.S. diluents needed to process heavy oil.

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust purchased an additional 250klb of uranium yesterday, bringing Q1 purchases to 3.65Mlb (largest Q1 on record) and total holdings to 78Mlb. Nonetheless, the uranium spot price declined 3% on the day to $91/lb.

Bitcoin touched a low of $72,877 on Tuesday, down 19.5% since last Wednesday’s high ($90,460), and down 42% from its 10/6/25 high ($126,251). Crypto markets are focused on Strategy’s average cost of $75,026 for its 673,783 bitcoin. Since October, Strategy’s $35.7B unrealized gain on its bitcoin hoard has completely evaporated.

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