U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright gave the International Energy Agency (IEA) a 1-year deadline to scrap goals for net zero energy emissions or the U.S. will withdraw as a member. “There has been such a group mentality, 10 years invested in a destructive illusion of net zero by 2050, that the US will use all the pressure we have to get the IEA to eventually, in the next year or so, move away from this agenda.”
With the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier in attacking position by Saturday, President Trump warned Iran if a “meaningful” deal over its nuclear program is not reached in the next 10-15 days, “really bad things will happen.” Tehran responded, “in the event that it is subjected to military aggression, Iran will respond decisively and proportionately.” Separately, U.K. Prime Minister Starmer cited legal concerns in blocking the U.S. from using RAF Fairford (U.K. base hosting U.S. personnel) to strike Iran, highlighting souring U.S./U.K. relations under Starmer. Of course, an Iranian attack would not play well with Labor’s increasingly Islamic electoral base.
Economists at University of Pennsylvania’s Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimate $179B in U.S. tariff collections are at risk of having to be refunded if the U.S. Supreme Court rules (as early as today) against Trump’s broad emergency tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The PWBM model cross-references Census Bureau import data on 11,000 product categories based on 8-digit tariff codes across 233 countries and applies statistical forecasting methods to estimate roughly $500M in IEEPA-based revenues are now collected daily.
Despite the Trump tariff regime, the December U.S. trade deficit exploded 32.6% to $70.3 (with goods imports +3.8% and exports -2.9%). While the full year ’25 trade deficit narrowed 0.2% to $901.5B, the goods trade gap widened 2.1% to an all-time high of $1.24T.
Data deluge: Q4 GDP (est. +2.8%) and PCE Price Index (est. +0.3% m/m & +2.8% y/y) @ 8:30 ET; New Home Sales (est. 730k) and U. of Mich. Sentiment (est. 57.3), 1-yr. Inflation Exp. (est. +3.5%) and 5-10-yr. Inflation Exp. (est. +3.4%) @ 10 ET.
Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, S&P futures -0.2% and Nasdaq futures -0.2%. DXY dollar index -0.05%, spot gold +0.5% and spot silver +1.9%.
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