As U.S. and Iranian officials begin a second round of nuclear talks in Switzerland and a second U.S. aircraft carrier group (USS Gerald Ford) heads to the Middle East, President Trump stated regime change in Iran is “the best thing that could happen” and Iranian state TV announced parts of the Straits of Hormuz will be temporarily closed on Tuesday for IRGC military drills, “The main transit routs of the Straits of Hormuz are under the control of the IRGC Navy, and Iran has no red lines when it comes to safeguarding security in this region.”
The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued general licenses to Chevron, BP, ENO, Shell and Repsol to operate oil and gas operations in Venezuela.
JPMorgan estimates retail investors bought a record $48B in U.S. equities during the past three weeks, exceeding the previous record set during the April ’25 crash by $5B.
Following softer than forecast U.S. CPI this past week and ongoing systematic quant fund deleveraging in equities, 10-yr. Treasury yields have declined to 4.032% (down 25bps since 2/2).
From its 12/3/25 low ($6.536T), the Fed has increased its balance sheet $86B (including $48.6B since 1/7/26).
January's cost of goods and services number is giving some hope that inflation could be easing. CPI rose 2.4% from the same time last year and was down 0.3% from December 2024. Inflation now sits at xxx which the last time it was there was in April 2025.
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