Wealthion Macro Bites 1-14-26

China on Wednesday reported a record ’25 trade surplus of $1.2T, with U.S. trade frictions more than offset by expanded exports to Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America.  Exports (in dollar terms) to the U.S. fell 20% in ’25, while exports increased 25.8% to Africa, 13.4% to the ASEAN bloc, and 8.4% to EU nations.  Total December exports rose 6.6%, with exports to the U.S. down 30% y/y, offset by surging exports to Australia (+13%), EU (+11.5%), ASEAN (+11%), and Japan (+5.3%).

The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air reports that for the first time since 1973 aggregate coal power generation in China and India fell y/y.  After jointly driving more than 90% of the global increase in global carbon emissions between 2015 and 2024, electricity generated by coal plants in 2025 fell by 1.6% in China and by 3% in India.  During the year, China added 300GW of solar and 100GW of wind power (together more than five times the UK’s total power capacity), while India added 35GW of solar, 6GW of wind and 3.5GW of hydropower.

U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reports 2,571 deaths in government crackdown on Iranian protests.  President Trump urged, “Iranian patriots, keep protesting—take over your institutions.  Help is on the way,” while warning the regime’s “killers and abusers would pay a big price.”  New York Times reports the Pentagon has prepared a broad range of strike options in Iran, including nuclear and ballistic missile targets and a cyberattack or strike on Iran’s domestic security apparatus. 

Metals continue their spirited rally in the new year with spot gold ($4,640/oz), spot silver ($91.90/oz), and March copper ($6.07/lb.) all hitting new all-time highs.

S&P futures -0.3%, Nasdaq futures -0.5%, spot gold +1.0% and spot silver +5.2%.