Events have moved rapidly today, January 5, 2026, following the weekend’s "Absolute Resolve" military operation. The capture of Nicolás Maduro has moved into the U.S. federal court system and prompted direct engagement between the White House and the energy sector.
Here is the updated analysis with the latest developments from this afternoon:
The Courtroom Realities
As of this afternoon, Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have completed their initial appearance in a Manhattan federal court. Maduro pleaded not guilty to all charges, including narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking. While he declared himself "still the President," the court ordered him to remain in custody, setting the next hearing for March 17.
For Chevron (CVX) investors, this formalizes a period of prolonged legal and political limbo rather than a clean, immediate transition
Key Updates for Chevron (CVX) Investors
1. Operational Continuity & Shipments
Despite the weekend’s volatility, operational continuity is holding. This afternoon, reports confirmed that the first Chevron cargo since the capture departed Venezuela for the U.S. Gulf Coast. This is a critical signal that the "oil quarantine" mentioned by Secretary of State Marco Rubio is being applied selectively, allowing Chevron to continue lifting crude to recover its billions in outstanding debt.
2. The "Trump Meeting" Catalyst
In a major development sources confirmed that executives from Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips are scheduled to meet with the Trump administration (specifically Energy Secretary Chris Wright) this Thursday.
-
The Mandate: The administration is pushing for a massive re-entry of U.S. capital into the Venezuelan oil patches.
-
The Conflict: While the White House wants to "get the oil flowing" to lower prices, the supermajors are signaling caution. Chevron’s primary focus remains employee safety and asset integrity, while peers like ConocoPhillips have called speculation on new investment "premature."
3. Leadership in Caracas
The political vacuum has been partially filled by Delcy Rodríguez, who was sworn in as interim president. Interestingly, her tone shifted this afternoon from calling the U.S. raid an "atrocity" to a more conciliatory stance, inviting "respectful relations" and collaboration on a shared development agenda. This reduces the immediate risk of a retaliatory seizure of Chevron’s assets.
Market Reaction & Peer Comparison
The market has rewarded Chevron’s unique positioning. CVX shares are up roughly 8.5% since the operation began, outperforming the broader sector as investors price in the possibility of Chevron becoming the primary "operator-of-choice" for the transition.
| Metric | Chevron (CVX) | Peers (XOM/COP) |
| Current Status | Only active U.S. major in-country. | No physical presence; billions in legal claims. |
| Immediate Upside | Accelerated debt recovery & lifting. | Potential for new license awards (long-term). |
| Primary Risk | "Sanctions whiplash" if transition stalls. | Significant infrastructure investment requirements. |
Investor Takeaway: The "Quarantine" Framework
The "data point" to watch over the next 48 hours is the definition of the "oil quarantine." If the U.S. uses its military presence to strictly control who buys Venezuelan crude while exempting Chevron’s flows, the company moves from a position of "managing risk" to "managing a monopoly" on the country's exports.
Financial and Political Analysts Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro joined today (Monday, January 5th) to hash it all out. You can watch it here. And if you are looking to take advantage or are worried about how this affects the markets, click here to have a free portfolio review and conversation with one of our trusted financial advisors.
